Value of: Grubauer to Buffalo/NYI

[Riseonfire]

Cory has a no trade clause on one of the up and coming teams in the Metro that plays the way the game needs to be played to win right now (fast all day long). Why would he wave to go to a team that may or may not be as good as the Devils next year?

Cause he might not want to ride the pine behind Keith.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I'd say take out the Florida 2nd and the Caps probably trade Grubauer to Buffalo. Two 2nd rounders would be good value if a team isn't willing to dish out a 1st. I still think someone is willing to part with a later 1st rounder for him though. His numbers have been great

Our 2018 2nd is 32 OA. 0 chance we give that up and another 2nd just for Grubauer. Its fair value with FLA's 2nd coming our way.

 

[saintunspecified]

The problem with Grubauer is the Caps aren’t going to be looking to do the islanders any favores so his price to a division rival will be significantly higher imo and hes has great numbers and he’s ready to try and prove he’s a starter.

Grubauer is virtually in the same spot as Schneider was when Lou acquired him from VAN for the 9th overall pick. So it will be interesting.

I'm not sure how much this matters as much at the draft as it does during the season. But if NYI makes an offer that is significantly better than others, I think they should be able to land him. It's just a question of how much NYI has to offer.

The thing that always bothers me about these scenarios is that everyone assumes that nobody will hand Grubauer an offer sheet between 7/1 and 7/5. That assumption is probably accurate, and it's a scandal. The way the system is negotiated, the player has some leverage about where they will play. But everyone assumes, and especially Caps fans in this thread, that this isn't the case. They're probably right, but only because collusion is rampant in the NHL.

If it weren't, a 3 year/4M AAV contract offer wouldn't be a bad bet on Grubauer. Then the Caps would have to decide whether to match, and keep him at that salary for at least 1 year.

 

[DRW204]

was curious about some of the numbers/contract status and returns of some of the traded goalies mentioned in this thread...just used hockeyref and cap friendly to summarize their stats and contract status from career to trade

Player	Age	GP	GS	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO	MIN	QS	QS%	RBS	Contract Status @ time of trade	Traded for
Grubauer	21 - 26	101	79	43	31	11	201	2614	2413	0.923	2.29	6	5273	49	0.62	8	?/RFA	?
Schneider	22 - 26	98	86	55	26	8	197	2715	2518	0.927	2.2	9	5372	58	0.674	10	2 x 4M	9th OA in 2013
Andersen	24 - 26	125	114	77	26	12	271	3305	3034	0.918	2.33	6	6973	68	0.596	14	RFA	30th OA in 2016 and 2017 2nd
Lehner	19 - 23	86	76	30	36	13	230	2676	2446	0.914	2.88	2	4788	45	0.592	9	2 x 2.225M	21st OA in 2015 and D. Legwand
Talbot	26 - 27	57	53	33	15	5	110	1598	1488	0.931	2	8	3306	33	0.623	2	UFA	2nd in 2015, 3rd in 2016 and 7th in 2015

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[hb12xchamps]

Our 2018 2nd is 32 OA. 0 chance we give that up and another 2nd just for Grubauer. Its fair value with FLA's 2nd coming our way.

Then there's no deal? Grubauer's stats project him as a starter for someone. People have paid a lot more than two 2nds for a starting goaltender and I'm sure there will be more than one team calling the Caps about Grubauer

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Then there's no deal? Grubauer's stats project him as a starter for someone. People have paid a lot more than two 2nds for a starting goaltender and I'm sure there will be more than one team calling the Caps about Grubauer

I find it hard anyone would beat that offer for Grubauer.

 

[Jame]

Buffalo should have zero interest in trading for a goalie...

Pay the cost in cap/salary for Bernier, while developing Ullmark and others behind him.

 

[StephenPeat]

There are plenty of teams in Europe that would pay him several million to be their goalie. He won't sign with the Caps again to be a backup for low money. A trade this offseason WILL happen.

I’m leaning this way too but if he wants to play in the NHL he’s not absolutely in the clear to choose his destiny ala Darling, Talbot, etc. He’s technically still under team control this offseason and that’s important to his value. I highly doubt Grubauer himself or the Capitals will try to stick it to each other. I expect the situation to be resolved amicably, most likely via trade that is commensurate in value to what other goalies in similar situations have returned. (Mid- to Late-1st ballpark e.g. Jones/Lehner/Andersen). I’d imagine the Buf 2nd might be close if they want Grubauer, for instance.

 

[THE Green Man]

I'm surprised that the Islanders trade talk is all only focused on 12OV. They have 2 2nd rounders both relatively high. IMO their 1sts are a little too valuable to move for Grubauer. But both 2nds could be a decent base. This would give the Caps 4 picks in the top 46- one of which would probably be used as currency to move Orpik's contract.

The Islanders are able to add a goalie at a decent price to show JT they are looking to win now, as well as keep their 2 1sts. One could then be moved for a top 4 defenceman like it's been addressed in this thread, or just stockpile the cupboard with 2 decent prospects.

Technically Grubauer doesn't have to be moved, but with all the older UFA goalies on the market this year, who could easily take a 1 year deal to go to the team in the SCF, it would be smart for the Caps to do so. If they don't it probably means they are letting Carlson walk. That is poor asset management when you have Holtby already and eventually Samsonov. Additionally, with how well Kempny has played beside Carlson it would be smart to open up cap space by moving Grubauer and Orpik to be able to lock in Wilson, Carlson and Kempny.

Vancouver could be of help too in a 3 way scenario:

Washington in: Calgary and Islanders 2nd
Washington out: Grubauer, Orpik, Florida 2nd

Islanders in: Grubauer, Tanev + ____ from Vancouver
Islanders out: 12OV, Calgary and Islanders 2nds

Canucks in: 12OV, Florida 2nd, Orpik (pure cap dump unless NYI want him at 50% retention)
Canucks out: Tanev + ____?

 

[hb12xchamps]

I find it hard anyone would beat that offer for Grubauer.

Clearly there will be interest or there wouldn't be a trade thread talking about Washington's goalies every week on the main boards. If fans are interested and can see the value, I'm sure NHL GMs do. If multiple teams are interested there will be a mini bidding war. It wouldn't be off value for a team to part with a first round draft choice based on Grubauer's numbers in comparison to other goaltenders that have been moved for similar values.

Your original value is not that far off but I just don't see Washington giving up another 2nd rounder unless it's on draft day and there's another player available that they just can't live without.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Clearly there will be interest or there wouldn't be a trade thread talking about Washington's goalies every week on the main boards. If fans are interested and can see the value, I'm sure NHL GMs do. If multiple teams are interested there will be a mini bidding war. It wouldn't be off value for a team to part with a first round draft choice based on Grubauer's numbers in comparison to other goaltenders that have been moved for similar values.

Your original value is not that far off but I just don't see Washington giving up another 2nd rounder unless it's on draft day and there's another player available that they just can't live without.

Other teams showing interest and beating this offer are two completely separate things.

 

[Dr Quincy]

was curious about some of the numbers/contract status and returns of some of the traded goalies mentioned in this thread...just used hockeyref and cap friendly to summarize their stats and contract status from career to trade

Player	Age	GP	GS	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO	MIN	QS	QS%	RBS	Contract Status @ time of trade	Traded for
Grubauer	21 - 26	101	79	43	31	11	201	2614	2413	0.923	2.29	6	5273	49	0.62	8	?/RFA	?
Schneider	22 - 26	98	86	55	26	8	197	2715	2518	0.927	2.2	9	5372	58	0.674	10	2 x 4M	9th OA in 2013
Andersen	24 - 26	125	114	77	26	12	271	3305	3034	0.918	2.33	6	6973	68	0.596	14	RFA	30th OA in 2016 and 2017 2nd
Lehner	19 - 23	86	76	30	36	13	230	2676	2446	0.914	2.88	2	4788	45	0.592	9	2 x 2.225M	21st OA in 2015 and D. Legwand
Talbot	26 - 27	57	53	33	15	5	110	1598	1488	0.931	2	8	3306	33	0.623	2	UFA	2nd in 2015, 3rd in 2016 and 7th in 2015

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I appreciate the work, and I'm not saying it's irrelevant, but....

It's kinda like looking at other houses on your street and seeing what a similar one sold for in 2013, another one in 2015 and a 3rd in 2017. Different markets, different buyers.

You can say "Well, this shows that Grubauer is worth the 9th overall pick, because he is close to what Schneider was when he was dealt."

But the "value" or "worth" of an asset isn't exactly the same as what a similar asset was sold for. The value or worth is: What is someone willing to pay today. Maybe you find a buyer willing to give you 2 firsts. Maybe the highest offer you get is a 3rd. Maybe there's a bidding war. Maybe nobody makes an offer.

Comps are nice, but in the end it comes down to the actual specifics of finding an actual buyer, not just looking at a blue book value and saying "this is worth x because this guide says so".(mixing metaphors I know)

 

[DRW204]

I appreciate the work, and I'm not saying it's irrelevant, but....

It's kinda like looking at other houses on your street and seeing what a similar one sold for in 2013, another one in 2015 and a 3rd in 2017. Different markets, different buyers.

You can say "Well, this shows that Grubauer is worth the 9th overall pick, because he is close to what Schneider was when he was dealt."

But the "value" or "worth" of an asset isn't exactly the same as what a similar asset was sold for. The value or worth is: What is someone willing to pay today. Maybe you find a buyer willing to give you 2 firsts. Maybe the highest offer you get is a 3rd. Maybe there's a bidding war. Maybe nobody makes an offer.

Comps are nice, but in the end it comes down to the actual specifics of finding an actual buyer, not just looking at a blue book value and saying "this is worth x because this guide says so".(mixing metaphors I know)

Obviously man... They're just comparables nothing set in stone. There are a few teams that could use a good goalie no different as it was in 2013/15/16.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Other teams showing interest and beating this offer are two completely separate things.

Not necessarily. Other teams showing interest means that other teams are going to present offers of their own. Like I said, I think the Caps can get a better offer than that without having to give up a 2nd rounder in the process