Grading the draft

[VainGretzky]

I grade it a +we got 2/3 rd best player in draft in 4th position.

 

[VainGretzky]

As a draft junkie and someone that watches 100's of junior games each year and ever minute of ever U-18, WJC and other events Frozen 4 and NCAA regional finals that are televised etc as well as buying major draft guides and reading all on-line scouting reports I can get my hands I always create my own draft board rankings each draft year. Then I compare Leafs actual picks to my own draft board and what I would have done if I was Leafs director of scouting.

Here is this year results.

Hunter's actual Leafs Draft

#4 --- Mitchell Marner, Right Wing/Centre, London Knights (OHL) – 5-foot-11, 160 pounds
#34 -- Travis Dermott, Defense, Erie Otters (OHL) – 5-foot-11, 197 pounds
#61 -- Jeremy Bracco, Right Wing, USHL (USA U-18) – 5-foot-9, 173 pounds
#65 -- Andrew Nielsen, Defense, Lethbridge Broncos (WHL) – 6-foot-3, 207 pounds
#68 -- Martins Dzierkals, Left Wing, Riga 2 ( Russia Jr.) – 5-foot-11, 169 pounds
#95 -- Jesper Lindgren, Defense, Modo Jr (Sweden JR) – 5-foot-11, 161 pounds
#125 - Dmytro Timashov, Left Wing, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) – 5-foot-9, 192 pounds
#155 - Stephen Desrocher, Defense, Oshawa General (OHL) – 6-foot-3, 198 pounds
#185 - Nikita Korostelev, Right Wing, Sarnia Sting, (OHL) 6-foot-2, 195 pounds

My Leafs draft (using my draft rankings board) for 2015 draft

#4 --- Noah Hanifin, D, Boston College (NCAA) – 6-foot-2, 205 pounds
#16 -- Mathew Barzal, C, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) – 6-foot-0, 180 pounds
#29 -- Nick Merkley, RW/C, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) — 5-foot-10, 185 pounds
#33 -- Jansen Harkins, C, Prince George Cougars (WHL) – 6-foot-1, 180 pounds
#61 -- Alexander Dergachyov, Centre, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) – 6-foot-4, 200 pounds
#65 -- Felix Sandstrom, Goaltender, Brynas IF, (SHL) – 6-foot-2, 191 pounds
#95 -- Parker Wotherspoon, Defence, Tri-City Americans, (WHL) – 6-foot-0, 171 pounds
#125 - Simon Bourque, Defense, Rimouski, (QMJHL) – 6-foot-0, 184 pounds
#155 - Stephen Desrocher, Defense, Oshawa General (OHL) – 6-foot-3, 198 pounds
#185 - Nikita Korostelev, Right Wing, Sarnia Sting, (OHL) 6-foot-2, 195 pounds

* Instead of the NYI trading Griffin Reinhart, I would have traded Jake Gardiner to Edmonton for #16 and #33 when Barzal was on the board, and moved heaven and earth to get that pick even if it meant adding another pick (Pens 2nd in 2016)..

** Instead of trading #29 for #34 and #68 I would not have traded out of the 1st round but stayed at #29 particularly when my hometown team Merkley was still on the board.

Very impressive drafting but no chance Oilers would of moved 16th for Gardiner let alone adding 33 homer wishful thinking at best.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

So how much is enough? You said this a while back




And what has happened within the last month to go from this to your current stance?

Haha thanks man, that's great.

 

[91Kadri91*]

What is that pseudo science?

Prospect cohort success (PCS%). The graph takes the PCS% of a particular player and measures it against the expected (or past PCS's at said draft position) PCS%.

It's a novelty at this point, but it's promising. Once they make the proper adjustments, it could become a very important metric. I just thought I'd post it for discussion, not for any definitive judgement on how The Leafs' draft went. The only reason I posted it in here is because there doesn't appear to be a designated draft thread at the moment.

Also, Reinhart was picked three years ago. He's still a prospect, whereas most players in Gardiner's age group who were likely to be star players have already blossomed into those players by now. He was picked 2 spots behind Erik Karlsson. I don't think people are seeing the same kind of upside there.

I'd be shocked if Reinhart ever became as good of a defenseman as Gardiner.

 

[sync95]

A pick-by-pick look at the recent draftees:

1. Marner
I don't think hardly anyone will argue that he was the best player to be chosen with this pick. Furthermore, I believe he was also the most appropriate prospect in respect to org. need. Glad that BPA at #4 happened to fill our most pressing need (forwards). He's probably going to be better than Kessel in 3-4 years.

2. Dermott
I'll admit, this pick seemed like a reach to me ( I had him at #50). However, when we look at Dermott closer, we see a budding all-around d-man who may have gotten lost among the glut of other prospects around that projected area. I would have liked to have seen them pick Meloche or Harkins tbh.

2. Bracco
People tend to find players who slide to be suspect or having a major flaw.. We all know Bracco is a flyweight, but also that he is a highly skilled PLY. I sensed this when I first seen him play 8 years ago.Seeing as the Leafs are stocked with 5"10 forwards (Brown, Johnson etc.) it was curious to see them take another, but Bracco I think is a cut above any other small fwd we have(outside of Marner) and could perhaps be used as trade bait if others do indeed surpass him.

Others:

Dzierkals- An unknown commodity to the casual fan, he was on more than a few lists for sure. Still, I don't know why theY didn't waits little later for him, as Dergachev was still around. I like that we are giving a player from a non-traditional nation a chance. I think this shows the Leafs are diversifying their scouting areas, in particular KHL areas.

Timashov- the next Ziggy Palffy? Jokes aside, this pick is great. Worst case, he goes to the KHL after 2 or 3 AHL stints. He could be a 20+20 guy in the Nhl.

Neilsen- Great to have him on board. By all accounts, he brings his lunchpail to every shift. We need more physicality on D with the losses of Holzer and Franson.

Korostelev- No complaints (Except maybe from Grapes) with this pick. It's the 7th round, the greatest crapshoot of all. He might even have a better career than Zach Senysyn if it all works out. /s

Overall, real impressed with the results of the Leafs 2015 picks. Multiple selections (Marner, Bracco) that indicate an organizational shift in draft methods(No more Devanes or Barron Smiths!). I was also pleased to see the Leafs not hesitate to select sliders. I takes guts to pick guys that 29 other teams passed over multiple times. I predict we will see 1500 NHL games played by these picks. Marner will be the first to crack an NHL roster, Lindgren the last. This past weekend did nothing to damper the excitement in Leafs nation. Look forward to seeing these guys develop into quality NHLers.

 

[Knightnight]

The Leafs drafted a lot of skill.

Now we have to take the wait and see approach to see what becomes of it all when we look back at this draft in the future.

Trading out of the 1st round in a draft considered one of the best in a decade to pick up extra 3rd rounder is a concern particularly if you are passing on Konecny and Merkley smaller skilled players to take more smaller skilled players with the picks acquired.

I was hoping for a Bozak trade for a 2nd and 3rd and then you don't need to trade out of the 1st round.

Shhh! Perhaps they knew something from there meetings and medical exams you have no clue about? Maybe it was feedback from other players during interviews. Lots of reasons players rise and fall you or I will never know about. Like hos did Barzal go all the way to 16 when you were sure he should be in consideration with 3-4-5. kinda makes you go hmmm.

 

[McMatthews]

A pick-by-pick look at the recent draftees:

Timashov- the next Ziggy Palffy? Jokes aside, this pick is great. Worst case, he goes to the KHL after 2 or 3 AHL stints. He could be a 20+20 guy in the Nhl.

Why would a Swede go to the KHL?

 

[bonjovi0308]

The doubt I have is the pick of Andrew Nielsen over the likes of Alexander Dergachyov and Mitchell Vande Sompel. Is Nielsen really the best player available at the spot, or they just want to pick a tall defense to balance out the short forwards they drafted?

 

[Semantics]

Was just looking at TPP for our picks again:

http://www.theprojectionproject.com...ing-the-2015-draft-by-probability-of-success/

Caveats are it's questionable with regard to defensemen as it's only evaluating them based on offense, but that's still somewhat useful to know. And it's also missing data on a lot of European players, and doesn't evaluate goalies.

According to their model not only did we get guys with fairly good NHL potential:

Marner - 100%
Dermot - 49%
Bracco - 46%
Korostelev - 43%
Timashov - 41%
Nielsen - 22%
Desrocher - 14%

Add these up and the expectation is 3.15 NHL players. Note that Lindgren and Dzierkals aren't included because of limited data from Europe. But considering we took them ahead of Timashov you have to figure their chances are around 40% too, which would put our total haul at around 4.00 NHLers. That would be a fairly successful draft. We got #4, #22, #26, and #32 on this list.

But what is more interesting is that our picks also have really high first liner potential.

Marner - 100%
Dermott - 29%
Bracco - 19%
Korostelev - 13%
Timashov - 13%
Nielsen - 7%
Desrocher - 4%

And once again let's just assume the Euros are the same as Timashov at 13%. That's 2.11 first liners in expectation. By this model we're more likely than not to get another 1st liner besides Marner out of the 2015 draft. An average team has five first line players and to get two of them in one draft? That is outstanding. For reference, Ottawa's picks only sum to 0.51 (with one goalie and one 4th round pick missing).

Incidentally, amusing to see Marner at 100% first line and Barzal at only 20% and only 49% to make the NHL after some of the crap we had to read around here.

 

[Faltorvo]

I give this draft a B+

look , I don't know much about prospects

best I can do is make my wish list on positional need and what the endless draft order lists out there.

If marner is converted into the elusive #1C , I'm totally fine with that, BUT

if he turns out to be another winger, when a supposed stud D is on the board, then colour me totally unimpressed, given our current situation.

trading away when konecny was still on the board and to see philly (who has an amazing knack of finding high end to elite forwards late in the 1rst) worries me.

time will tell all

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Why would a Swede go to the KHL?

Lots of Swedes play there and his father is Russian and lives in Moscow.

 

[McMatthews]

Lots of Swedes play there and his father is Russian and lives in Moscow.

He's still a Swede and I'd imagine he'd go right back home to Sweden.

Despite his name and birthplace, he appears to be as Swedish as Mika Zibanejad.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

A because you asked to rate the draft not what we didn't do to get more picks.

Thought one of the big priorities and objectives was to get multiple 1st rounders this year? We had two going into the draft, so the objective was to get at least one more.

In the end, we had one 1st rounder.

Are we shifting the goal posts?

 

[Celly Hard]

I think Hunter did a good job. Although I like what I hear about Dermott, I am sort of weary about that pick. Seems like there was better talent available.

Would have been much happier leaving the top 2 rounds with: Marner, Kylington, Bracco.

 

[CBinTokyo]

Thought one of the big priorities and objectives was to get multiple 1st rounders this year? We had two going into the draft, so the objective was to get at least one more.

In the end, we had one 1st rounder.

Are we shifting the goal posts?

Is the objective to get 1st rounders, or NHLers?

 

[ACC1224]

Thought one of the big priorities and objectives was to get multiple 1st rounders this year? We had two going into the draft, so the objective was to get at least one more.

In the end, we had one 1st rounder.

Are we shifting the goal posts?

Your objective or the Teams?

 

[egd27]

Gotta chuckle at those who are actually serious about giving this draft a rating at this point.

We got a consensus Top 5 prospect with the 4th overall pick, (great, but pretty much anyone here could have accomplished that) and a bunch of other guys that could just as easily be Jesse Blacker as bona fide NHLers.

Let's try to keep some perspective.

 

[Mess]

My observation is this, but not a criticism.

When you take a bunch of CHL GMs like Hunter, Dubas and Paliafito etc and they have been scouting 15/16 year olds for OHL teams then size doesn't matter as much as these kids grow from 16-18 before they are draft eligible.

With Leafs drafting 6 of 9 players 5-11 or under taking some of the players that other teams passed on due to size the perception is that they were stuck in CHL team building thinking and not adjusted to NHL drafting because its their first kick at the can. Generally by age 18 the majority of people are finished growing in height and now fill out weight wise as they mature.

Leafs drafted for skill no questioning that but they disregarded the size of that skill. So for them to hit on some of these player they are hoping for growth spurts.

You can only have so many smaller players on an NHL team so they might also be hoping that these players drafted are not intended for the Leafs roster but more currency in trade as Dubas says "you can trade small for size".

So it will be very interesting to see how this pans out.

 

[Fogelhund]

I think the most underrated player that we drafted this year was Dermott. We could have a special player there in a few years.

Agreed..fits the profile of a D who could become much more than his draft position. We need to get lucky along the way, and I feel like this guy could be one of those.

 

[Leafsman]

My observation is this, but not a criticism.

When you take a bunch of CHL GMs like Hunter, Dubas and Paliafito etc and they have been scouting 15/16 year olds for OHL teams then size doesn't matter as much as these kids grow from 16-18 before they are draft eligible.

With Leafs drafting 6 of 9 players 5-11 or under taking some of the players that other teams passed on due to size the perception is that they were stuck in CHL team building thinking and not adjusted to NHL drafting because its their first kick at the can. Generally by age 18 the majority of people are finished growing in height and now fill out weight wise as they mature.

Leafs drafted for skill no questioning that but they disregarded the size of that skill. So for them to hit on some of these player they are hoping for growth spurts.

You can only have so many smaller players on an NHL team so they might also be hoping that these players drafted are not intended for the Leafs roster but more currency in trade as Dubas says "you can trade small for size".

So it will be very interesting to see how this pans out.

Very good take on it!!! Chances are likely a couple will have a spurt.

I like your quote that I bolded. I think this is their new strategy. If I may expand on it.

You can trade small skill for size +.

Vice versa it takes size+ to bring in skill so may as well focus on skill.