Speculation: Grabovski bought out

[silkyjohnson50]

Grabovski had a quality of competition similar to Datsyuk and Zetterberg this year. The difference is that he only started 36% of his shifts in the offensive zone (compared to Datsyuk's 54% and Z's 60%.)

The 2 seasons prior to this past one, Grabovski started 50 and 53% of his shifts in the o-zone. Those 2 seasons he played at a 55-60pt level.

He'd receive 50-60% o-zone starts if he played here, as Detroit forwards always start at least 50% of their shifts in the o-zone.

Caryle misused him this year, I don't think there's any question about that. He treated him like he was 2007 Sami Pahlsson at even strength. That's stupid.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Kenny would never take that contract on. If we get him, it will be for less money and term than his previous contract.

Fear the cap!

And as many have postulated, we likely shouldn't expect much tomorrow. Holland will not offer anyone market value.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Even so, I'm completely skeptical about the Wings signing him. I'm taking the view that the Wings aren't going to sign anyone, that way I can be pleasantly surprised if they do.

 

[PullHard]

And as many have postulated, we likely shouldn't expect much tomorrow. Holland will not offer anyone market value.

Being a Wings fan on July 1st/ 5th:

 

[Detroit Sports*]

resign brunner,nyquist , smith

sign grabo

all smiles tomorrow

 

[Petes2424]

The advanced numbers don't agree with you:

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6207

http://theleafsnation.com/2012/8/20/a-meaningful-gulf-in-the-quality-of-centremen

We can get into "advanced numbers" in hockey and how some people agree with them and some dont. Here's what we know as a fact and not from a computer....

The Leafs WON with Bozak and Kadri playing ahead of him. With the pretty much the same team from a year prior, they lost horribly with Grabovski assuming a heavier offensive load..

Advanced stats have far to many variables in hockey to be taken as gospel. There's certain GMs who use them as such, certain GMs that laugh at them and certain GMs who use them as a tool.. In this regard, we have REAL LIFE to make our own decisions. When Grabovski was played up, the Leafs were not as good of a hockey club...

That's advanced enough for me.

 

[tomcat13]

Holland, please sign Grabo !!!

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Being a Wings fan on July 1st/ 5th:

Seemingly true. And as I have mentioned multiple times since the signing. I'm awe struck that we wouldn't sign Lecavalier to a 5 year deal. Granted the deal will run through the age of 38, but at 4.5 million per year? Well worth the risk for what I believe to be essentially the best center in the market. I'd take Lecavalier at 4.5 for 5 years over Weiss for 5 years at 6. Or Filppula for 5+ million for 7-8. Granted, we have Jarnkrok to consider, but by the time he develops into a second line role, Lecavalier could pivot the 3rd line. VL4 would have offered size, offensive prowess, and a decent possession game for a decent deal. Holland's inflexibility and incorrigible stubbornness is extremely trying especially when we see what Jim Nill did today.(Granted Dallas was in desperate need of roster moves, but at least he has a pulse. More than we can say about Holland during UFA season.) I just hope we don't resign Cleary at this point.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

The Leafs WON with Bozak and Kadri playing ahead of him.

But, really... won what? Saying that Bozak and Kadri carried the Leafs to... a first round exit is the very definition of damning with faint praise.

 

[PullHard]

Seemingly true. And as I have mentioned multiple times since the signing. I'm awe struck that we wouldn't sign Lecavalier to a 5 year deal. Granted the deal will run through the age of 38, but at 4.5 million per year? Well worth the risk for what I believe to be essentially the best center in the market. I'd take Lecavalier at 4.5 for 5 years over Weiss for 5 years at 6. Of Filppula for 5+ million for 7-8. Granted, we have Jarnkrok to consider, but by the time he develops into a second line role, Lecavalier could pivot the 3rd line. VL4 would have offered size, offensive prowess, and a decent possession game for a decent deal. Holland's inflexibility and incorrigible stubbornness is extremely trying especially when we see what Jim Nill did today.(Granted Dallas was in desperate need of roster moves, but at least he has a pulse. More than we can say about Holland during UFA season.) I just hope we don't resign Cleary at this point.

I 110% agree with all of that. The last year of Vinny's deal might be like ~$1.5M too much, but if $1.5M for one season is going to cripple your entire cap structure, you're not doing a very good job IMO. I wasn't hellbent on getting Lecavalier, but your reasoning makes too much sense to me.

"We didn't want to maybe be overpaying Lecavalier a little bit at 38 years old!"... But Samuelsson and Bertuzzi will be making over $5M combined this year, and are 35+. Actually, idk how old Sammy is, but he is up there anyway. You get my point. Holland makes no sense.

 

[snailderby]

94 career goals but has NEVER scored a SINGLE goal against the Red Wings. Must have been a secret Red Wings fan all along!

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I 110% agree with all of that. The last year of Vinny's deal might be like ~$1.5M too much, but if $1.5M for one season is going to cripple your entire cap structure, you're not doing a very good job IMO. I wasn't hellbent on getting Lecavalier, but your reasoning makes too much sense to me.

We didn't want to maybe be overpaying Lecavalier a little bit at 38 years old! But Samuelsson and Bertuzzi will be making over $5M combined this year, and are 35+. Actually, idk how old Sammy is, but he is up there anyway. You get my point. Holland makes no sense.

But as has been stated by some of the beat writers, it wasn't about money so much as it was about term. They could afford to have Lecavalier at 5.5 mil at 2 years, but they couldn't afford to have Lecavalier at even 3.5 mil for 5. After 2 years, he's taking up roster spots for better (and younger) players, and he wanted a FULL NMC, so it's not like you could trade or waive him. We would have had to trade the young guy instead.

 

[Flowah]

At some point it's either going to reach critical mass of "What the hell are you doing, Holland?" or he's going to troll us and put together a super winning team just about when we're about to reach that tipping point.

 

[Petes2424]

The Leafs WON with Bozak and Kadri playing ahead of him./QUOTE]But, really... won what? Saying that Bozak and Kadri carried the Leafs to... a first round exit is the very definition of damning with faint praise.

They made the playoffs and weren't drafting 5th overall. That's a giant leap forward. There's no arguing that the Leafs were a better team with Bozak and Kadri playing ahead of him.

Look, this isn't a rip on Grabovski party I'm having. He can still be a good player in this league. He's just not a good fit in Detroit at all. Hey, maybe they sign him and I'm wrong. That would be great. Just don't see it being a good fit at all. He'd be a whipping boy within a month.

 

[SportsballChic]

We can get into "advanced numbers" in hockey and how some people agree with them and some dont. Here's what we know as a fact and not from a computer....

The Leafs WON with Bozak and Kadri playing ahead of him. With the pretty much the same team from a year prior, they lost horribly with Grabovski assuming a heavier offensive load..

Advanced stats have far to many variables in hockey to be taken as gospel. There's certain GMs who use them as such, certain GMs that laugh at them and certain GMs who use them as a tool.. In this regard, we have REAL LIFE to make our own decisions. When Grabovski was played up, the Leafs were not as good of a hockey club...

That's advanced enough for me.

Ahh well, I think you're completely wrong and that's basically the worst way to look at sports in the modern era. Some people believe Chris Osgood was a HoF goalie, me personally I think he wasn't much better than Greg Stefan. He sure did play for a better team though; and if you just look at the wins and loss column; you'd think Osgood was a sure fire first ballot HoFer.

Not sure we have much common ground there. Please allow me to congratulate you in advance for when we don't sign Grabo tomorrow. I personally will be inconsolable however.

 

[PullHard]

But as has been stated by some of the beat writers, it wasn't about money so much as it was about term. They could afford to have Lecavalier at 5.5 mil at 2 years, but they couldn't afford to have Lecavalier at even 3.5 mil for 5. After 2 years, he's taking up roster spots for better (and younger) players, and he wanted a FULL NMC, so it's not like you could trade or waive him. We would have had to trade the young guy instead.

I have a hard time seeing any of our prospects being 100% ready for 2C duties in 3 seasons. Which young player was that supposed to be? Could we not have shuffled out the Cleary's, Bertuzzi's, Samuelsson's, Eaves', Miller's, Emmerton's, etc. of the world before a legitimate top 6 forward? I don't mean to sound confrontational, but that just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[snailderby]

I have a hard time seeing any of our prospects being 100% ready for 2C duties in 3 seasons. Which young player was that supposed to be? Could we not have shuffled out the Cleary's, Bertuzzi's, Samuelsson's, Eaves', Miller's, Emmerton's, etc. of the world before a legitimate top 6 forward? I don't mean to sound confrontational, but that just doesn't make sense to me.

I think it is possible for Jarnkrok be ready for 2C duties in 3 seasons. Is it likely? I don't know. But let's say he spends one year in the AHL and another year in the NHL to get his feet wet. The third year, is it not possible that he could be getting top 6 time in the NHL? Like you said, we might be able to shuffle out a couple other players to make room for him. I haven't done the math on that yet. Just my two cents.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I have a hard time seeing any of our prospects being 100% ready for 2C duties in 3 seasons. Which young player was that supposed to be? Could we not have shuffled out the Cleary's, Bertuzzi's, Samuelsson's, Eaves', Miller's, Emmerton's, etc. of the world before a legitimate top 6 forward? I don't mean to sound confrontational, but that just doesn't make sense to me.

If Jarnkrok isn't ready for 2C 3 years from now, he won't ever be. I definitely think he's the guy they have in mind, and with some luck he'll be ready for the role by then.

 

[PullHard]

If Jarnkrok isn't ready for 2C 3 years from now, he won't ever be. I definitely think he's the guy they have in mind, and with some luck he'll be ready for the role by then.

Fingers crossed. I just don't expect Babs to do that. If it isn't Holland, then it is Babs. Maybe I should change my user name to Eternal Sunset?

 

[Syckle78]

Ahh well, I think you're completely wrong and that's basically the worst way to look at sports in the modern era. Some people believe Chris Osgood was a HoF goalie, me personally I think he wasn't much better than Greg Stefan. He sure did play for a better team though; and if you just look at the wins and loss column; you'd think Osgood was a sure fire first ballot HoFer.

Not sure we have much common ground there. Please allow me to congratulate you in advance for when we don't sign Grabo tomorrow. I personally will be inconsolable however.

Wow,really? Greg Stefan? Just when I was starting to like you, you go and rip Ozzie like that. I hope you get packaged in whatever deal we put together to get rid of Holland and then Cleary signs an 8 year deal with that team. I hate you with the power of 1000 suns right now.

 

[Petes2424]

Ahh well, I think you're completely wrong and that's basically the worst way to look at sports in the modern era. Some people believe Chris Osgood was a HoF goalie, me personally I think he wasn't much better than Greg Stefan. He sure did play for a better team though; and if you just look at the wins and loss column; you'd think Osgood was a sure fire first ballot HoFer.

Not sure we have much common ground there. Please allow me to congratulate you in advance for when we don't sign Grabo tomorrow. I personally will be inconsolable however.

It's ok to disagree my friend. And I firmly agree with the Osgood opinion. You do have to give him credit though, especially in 98' where he outplayed all goaltenders he came up against in the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see where the Wings go tomorrow. I'd look out for Antropov too. I know he hasn't been brought up but he's a very useful C who's hard to knock off the puck and he can play many roles. Lol. I'm just waiting for the Bobby Ryan trade that's never coming. Now there's a perfect fit.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Fingers crossed. I just don't expect Babs to do that. If it isn't Holland, then it is Babs. Maybe I should change my user name to Eternal Sunset?

I think Babcock is a little less predictable than people make him out to be. He does seem to prefer big guys, but he sometimes comes to love players for completely mysterious and irrational reasons. For example, he's always had a hard-on for Filppula, and just recently he's fallen in love with Brunner. Of the younger guys, he seems to really like Smith, and he's always talking about how good Nyquist is.

Will he like Jarnkrok? I have no idea. I want to say he's made some positive comments about him in the past. I think if he shows that he can take care of his own end and win some faceoffs, Babcock will quickly become a fan. I mean, those two things were really the only things Filppula managed to consistently accomplish, and Babcock loved him for it. It should be the same principle.

 

[PullHard]

I think Babcock is a little less predictable than people make him out to be. He does seem to prefer big guys, but he sometimes comes to love players for completely mysterious and irrational reasons. For example, he's always had a hard-on for Filppula, and just recently he's fallen in love with Brunner. Of the younger guys, he seems to really like Smith, and he's always talking about how good Nyquist is.

Will he like Jarnkrok? I have no idea. I want to say he's made some positive comments about him in the past. I think if he shows that he can take care of his own end and win some faceoffs, Babcock will quickly become a fan. I mean, those two things were really the only things Filppula managed to consistently accomplish, and Babcock loved him for it. It should be the same principle.

I really hope so because I'm a huge Jarnkrok fan, I just expect him to get the couple-of-years-as-a-3rd-liner-then-maybe-some-time-on-a-top-6-wing routine that has happened to the likes of Franzen, Hudler, Flip, even Z/ D did their time, etc. 3 years from Europe -> top 6 C in the NHL is scary fast progress in Detroit Red Wings world.

 

[snailderby]

Lol. I'm just waiting for the Bobby Ryan trade that's never coming. Now there's a perfect fit.

How likely is a Bobby Ryan trade?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I have a hard time seeing any of our prospects being 100% ready for 2C duties in 3 seasons. Which young player was that supposed to be? Could we not have shuffled out the Cleary's, Bertuzzi's, Samuelsson's, Eaves', Miller's, Emmerton's, etc. of the world before a legitimate top 6 forward? I don't mean to sound confrontational, but that just doesn't make sense to me.

Not signing players in fear of what prospects may or may not contribute is not a good recipe for success. Besides, in this particular scenario, I'd rather take the chance at Lecavalier while Datsyuk and Zetterberg are performing optimally. It shows a commitment to winning which is a vibe I haven't received from management in recent seasons. I understand we have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, but Zetterberg and Datsyuk are not getting younger. I'm not suggesting we mortgage the future of our franchise, but signing VL4 would have made our team much better in the next 2 seasons.