Grabbing an extra 1st

[rhef3]

Pretty tight race in metro standings, could be a bidding war type thing.

 

[Mlotek]

Nah. Trade values are down over the past few seasons in general. Look at all the TDL deals, how many of them included a first in the mix? Not many. There's no way AA would have generated that kind of return last season, and there's no way he gets us a FRP this season. Not with the way he's played and his unsightly +/-. We likely get a second rounder for AA, and that's a maybe. Some teams wouldn't even offer that.

I do not see any realistic way we add another FRP unless as someone else said we take on a really bad contract and get the pick as compensation in the deal. We don't have the expendable assets to get a good return like that. Frankly we have very few assets that are worth a FRP, so unless we're going to completely blow it up and move players like Larkin or Hronek then it isn't happening.

Unless you have a future telling crystal ball, impossible to tell what picks are going to get traded. Best one can do is make an educated guess.

Alternatively.... Or that many 1st round picks were already spoken for from previous trades.

At the 2019 draft 8 picks were owned by someone else.

Ottawa -> Colorado :for Duchesne (years before draft)
Winnipeg -> Rangers -> Winnipeg : Originally sent to acquires Hayes. Returned for Trouba
Columbus -> Ottawa :For Duchene
Toronto -> LA :For Muzzin
SJ -> Buffalo -> Anaheim :Initial for Kane. Flipped for Montour.
St. Louis -> Buffalo :For O'Reilly

Arizona and Philly swapped picks in a trade down/up.
Should note Ottawa preferred Branstrom over a 1st round pick.

2020
SJ -> Ottawa :For Karlsson (from previous summer)
****Toronto -> Carolina :For taking on Marleau contract, lottery protected.


From previous years (picks that changed hands, if changed multiple times still counted as 1):
2018 - 9
2017 - 9
2016 - 11
2015 - 9
2014 - 6
2013 - 9

 

[Mlotek]

Last year's AA would get you a first, this year's version wouldnt land half that IMO. showing some flaws and lack of progression. Someone will get him cheaper than they should have and it'll be either a home run or a pure flop.

That being said, i want to like him more but this year showed some lack of progression IMO and id rather move on from this experiement. more so considering he will probably ask for 5m+ and personally i dont think he's worth a nickle, right now, over 3.5-4m.

AA is scoring at a 0.525 points per game over his career, and 0.527 points per game this season.

Find yourself 'skill' forwards scoring at similar paces and than you have comparables.


AA has arbitration rights this summer and 'comparable' players are typically the benchmark for verdicts.

I think you are correct that 3.5-5 million is going to be the ballpark that would be argued.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Not sure why we haven't been talking about this more but it sounds like David Backes is going to get moved by BOS for picks. Not sure if they are hoping to move him for less than a 1st at this point and are waiting it out - but even if it's a package of picks and prospects; shouldn't the Wings be all over this?

Backes carries a 4.9M hit this year and next which DET should be able to address without any issue and is there downside I'm not seeing by adding a 35 year old veteran center who still probably good for 30pts on the season; a Selke Finalist, Masterson-quality guy, high character, Captain/Alternate, and for all accounts is a hard worker? Adding a locker room veteran to a captain-less team who can show the kids the rope and get picks in the deal? What am I missing?

 

[HisNoodliness]

Not sure why we haven't been talking about this more but it sounds like David Backes is going to get moved by BOS for picks. Not sure if they are hoping to move him for less than a 1st at this point and are waiting it out - but even if it's a package of picks and prospects; shouldn't the Wings be all over this?

Backes carries a 4.9M hit this year and next which DET should be able to address without any issue and is there downside I'm not seeing by adding a 35 year old veteran center who still probably good for 30pts on the season; a Selke Finalist, Masterson-quality guy, high character, Captain/Alternate, and for all accounts is a hard worker? Adding a locker room veteran to a captain-less team who can show the kids the rope and get picks in the deal? What am I missing?

I don't think Backes would bring much to this team. Sure being a hard working veteran is great but I think we have enough of those guys and it's hard to have much of a voice in the room when you're really bad and ineffective... But if Boston will send us a pick to take him then I'd do it for at least a 2nd preferably a first if at all possible.

 

[SirloinUB]

Not sure why we haven't been talking about this more but it sounds like David Backes is going to get moved by BOS for picks. Not sure if they are hoping to move him for less than a 1st at this point and are waiting it out - but even if it's a package of picks and prospects; shouldn't the Wings be all over this?

Backes carries a 4.9M hit this year and next which DET should be able to address without any issue and is there downside I'm not seeing by adding a 35 year old veteran center who still probably good for 30pts on the season; a Selke Finalist, Masterson-quality guy, high character, Captain/Alternate, and for all accounts is a hard worker? Adding a locker room veteran to a captain-less team who can show the kids the rope and get picks in the deal? What am I missing?

I get the sense the bruins are being cheapo's while looking for someone to pick up Backes but I wouldn't touch him for less than a 2nd + 3rd, preferably a first.

Ideally, we could retain some salary on helm and get a mid round pick or two then add a couple more picks to take on david backes who can play as a 3/4 c for us next year. It would be a great way to add some extra draft pick capital without having a major piece to sell.

In an ideal world we'd get back a 1st, 3rd, and 6th or something like that.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

I get the sense the bruins are being cheapo's while looking for someone to pick up Backes but I wouldn't touch him for less than a 2nd + 3rd, preferably a first.

Ideally, we could retain some salary on helm and get a mid round pick or two then add a couple more picks to take on david backes who can play as a 3/4 c for us next year. It would be a great way to add some extra draft pick capital without having a major piece to sell.

In an ideal world we'd get back a 1st, 3rd, and 6th or something like that.

What would a deal need to look like for an AA for Backes + Bostons 1st?

What else would need to be added from Bostons side? I know AA's value is pretty close to a 1st rd pick as it is.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

What would a deal need to look like for an AA for Backes + Bostons 1st?

What else would need to be added from Bostons side? I know AA's value is pretty close to a 1st rd pick as it is.

Id rather nab one of their D prospects than a draft pick.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

we should trade for new jersey's 1st rounder or montreal's. montreal will win the lottery so they can get the frenchie

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Id rather nab one of their D prospects than a draft pick.

Boston has Connor Clifton who I believe is injured but played serious minutes on the way to the cup final last year. 5 pts in 18 playoff games.

Matt Grzelcyk who I would say is better than Clifton. More mobile. Again played a lot of minutes on the last cup run.

Either one of them may be available for the right deal.

Prospect wise you have Vaakanainen (Bruins top D prospect projected to be top 4 or top 2), Zboril, and Lauzon.

Lauzon was recently called up and has looked every bit the part of an NHL defensemen. Plays very physical. Small sample size but we are wondering why it took some long for him to get a look. Shiny new toy syndrome for Bruins fans at the moment so most would say no but I would be comfortable moving him in a deal to move Backes.

Zboril would probably be in the NHL on another team but can't crack the Bruins top 6. I don't think he has anything left to learn at the AHL level, but he still needs to go through some growing pains at the NHL level. But he should be a solid top 4 guy if he hits his peak.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Boston has Connor Clifton who I believe is injured but played serious minutes on the way to the cup final last year. 5 pts in 18 playoff games.

Matt Grzelcyk who I would say is better than Clifton. More mobile. Again played a lot of minutes on the last cup run.

Either one of them may be available for the right deal.

Prospect wise you have Vaakanainen (Bruins top D prospect projected to be top 4 or top 2), Zboril, and Lauzon.

Lauzon was recently called up and has looked every bit the part of an NHL defensemen. Plays very physical. Small sample size but we are wondering why it took some long for him to get a look. Shiny new toy syndrome for Bruins fans at the moment so most would say no but I would be comfortable moving him in a deal to move Backes.

Zboril would probably be in the NHL on another team but can't crack the Bruins top 6. I don't think he has anything left to learn at the AHL level, but he still needs to go through some growing pains at the NHL level. But he should be a solid top 4 guy if he hits his peak.

yeah I’d probly do something like AA and a third for backes and vaakanainen. Or something along those lines.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

yeah I’d probly do something like AA and a third for backes and vaakanainen. Or something along those lines.

I think Boston would be hesitant but eventually pull the trigger on a deal like this. It's hard giving up a "blue chip" D prospect like Vaak but with their window being now and needing the Backes salary to re-sign some key guys it seems worth it. And I think AA would fit in somewhere in the middle 6 for Boston. Even if the 30 goal year was as fluke I think he could still be a decent depth player.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I think Boston would be hesitant but eventually pull the trigger on a deal like this. It's hard giving up a "blue chip" D prospect like Vaak but with their window being now and needing the Backes salary to re-sign some key guys it seems worth it. And I think AA would fit in somewhere in the middle 6 for Boston. Even if the 30 goal year was as fluke I think he could still be a decent depth player.

yeah idk if I would call it a “fluke” I just think it’s the nature of his play style. He’ll probably have years with 20 and years with 30.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

AA @50% plus San Jose 3rd

For

Backes, Zboril and Boston's 1st in 2020

Perfect

 

[SirloinUB]

What would a deal need to look like for an AA for Backes + Bostons 1st?

What else would need to be added from Bostons side? I know AA's value is pretty close to a 1st rd pick as it is.

I absolutely agree AA is worth a first or so. During an interview with the athletic an unnamed Front office executive said he felt the same.

Patrick marleau was also trade as cap dump for a first.

do the bruins trade two firsts and backes for AA? I doubt it but that’s where I’m starting the negotiation.

Maybe Vaak + a 2nd?

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I absolutely agree AA is worth a first or so. During an interview with the athletic an unnamed Front office executive said he felt the same.

Patrick marleau was also trade as cap dump for a first.

do the bruins trade two firsts and backes for AA? I doubt it but that’s where I’m starting the negotiation.

Maybe Vaak + a 2nd?

I don’t want Boston’s first. They are insane this year. Give me prospects over, what amounts to, an early second round pick.

 

[newfy]

I don't know why you would be calling this a deep draft class. Things turn way south after the first 12-15 guys. Just because we are bad and will be drafting high does not mean that this is a great or deep draft class.

I dont know how anyone can say this right now. Statistically theyre performing extremely wel compared to most draft classes. Its not like outside of the top 10 or so people really know what this draft will turn out like and a lot of people are calling this top 10 stacked.

I don't think Backes would bring much to this team. Sure being a hard working veteran is great but I think we have enough of those guys and it's hard to have much of a voice in the room when you're really bad and ineffective... But if Boston will send us a pick to take him then I'd do it for at least a 2nd preferably a first if at all possible.

Backes would provide nothing hes a negative player right now but whatever comes with him would be helpful when the wings are competitive again. I think it would cost a first because hes got the rest of this year and next year at 5 million and Boston is tight against the cap. If there isnt a first on the table I could see something like Frederic and a 3rd or maybe someone like Lauzon/Zboril. Detroit should use their capspace this deadline they have a tonne and they dont have a lot of good assets to sell

 

[SirloinUB]

I don’t want Boston’s first. They are insane this year. Give me prospects over, what amounts to, an early second round pick.

Yea I feel similarly. Studnika would interest me.

the baseline of my point though was that the cap dump should be valued around a first and AA should be about the same. Whether those are the assets we actually pursue or we focus on prospects I’d still expect two appealing pieces attached to a backes for AA swap.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Backes only has one year left and we are not going to be good, interestingly I think what it allows them to do is sign Krug though so I wonder if the Wings are interested in helping them shake that money free. I think someone will at least in the off-season and if we like the tag along assets than I am fine with taking on Backes. I don't think it will be a first though in terms of what Boston attaches to that package.

 

[newfy]

Yea I feel similarly. Studnika would interest me.

the baseline of my point though was that the cap dump should be valued around a first and AA should be about the same. Whether those are the assets we actually pursue or we focus on prospects I’d still expect two appealing pieces attached to a backes for AA swap.

I would love if the wings could get Studnicka, I didnt think he was great when he was younger but he really turned it on toward the end of his junior career and is good in the AHL now.

I find it really hard to believe they move him though