Goal Scoring Predictions

[sparkle twin]

Im most know for my absolute hatered of Craig Smith of which I do not deny, that makes me unpopular here since many think he is akin to Gretsky. So I will enjoy watching the guy fail.

Holy hyperbole. I don't know anyone on here or anywhere that thinks Smith is akin to Gretzky.

Also I will never ever understand the mentality of wanting your own players to fail. Clearly being "right" about someone or something is more important than seeing the team do well. You don't have to like every player on the team, but openly rooting for someone to fail just to feed your own ego is so ridiculous.

 

[Viqsi]

Lets see off top of my head
Dallas
StLouis
Chicago
Anaheim
LA
Oil Yes there kids are better
Tampa
Rangers
Colorado there kids are better also
Habs
Jackets

Now if one starts to compare two way game there can be others added for the position.

We have become complacent to half assed forwards since Sully Karyia Dumont Radulov years. Now if someone scores 20 there put on a pedestal.

Smith would almost certainly be playing on our second line alongside Dubi and Jenner. Right now Rene Bourque is penciled in there; Atkinson could move up, but Smith has consistently outproduced Atkinson.

Heck, I have occasional wild daydreams about somehow poaching Smith and Ellis.

 

[triggrman]

Holy hyperbole. I don't know anyone on here or anywhere that thinks Smith is akin to Gretzky.

Also I will never ever understand the mentality of wanting your own players to fail. Clearly being "right" about someone or something is more important than seeing the team do well. You don't have to like every player on the team, but openly rooting for someone to fail just to feed your own ego is so ridiculous.

He predicted Smith wouldn't make it three years.....

 

[MrJoshua]

Lets see off top of my head
Dallas
StLouis
Chicago
Anaheim
LA
Oil Yes there kids are better
Tampa
Rangers
Colorado there kids are better also
Habs
Jackets

Now if one starts to compare two way game there can be others added for the position.

We have become complacent to half assed forwards since Sully Karyia Dumont Radulov years. Now if someone scores 20 there put on a pedestal.

I posted this back in July, but I think this is pretty comprehensive evidence that you're way off track in your feelings that Smith wouldn't be top six on any of those teams...

Alright, so the question of whether Wilson and Smith are "legit" top-6 forwards has been brought up. Again. Let's examine that.

Wilson: 77 Games, 20 Goals, 22 Assists, 42 Points
Smith: 82 Games, 23 Goals, 21 Assists, 44 Points

So let's look at all the Western playoff teams and see where that would rank on those teams. (Forwards only - I'll be leaving off defenders like Keith who put up 45 points.)

Chicago Blackhawks
Toews: 81 Games, 28 Goals, 38 Assists, 66 Points
Kane: 61 Games, 27G, 37A, 64P
Hossa: 82 Games, 22G, 39A, 61P
Saad: 82 Games, 23G, 29A, 52P
Sharp: 68 Games, 16A, 27A, 43P
Richards: 76 Games, 12G, 25A, 37P

At least one of them would be top six. Probably both. They'd be third (tied) and sixth on the team among forwards for goals.

Anaheim Ducks
Getzlaf: 77GP, 25G, 45A, 70P
Perry: 67GP, 33G, 22A, 55P
Kesler: 81GP, 20G, 27A, 47P
Silfverberg: 81GP, 13G, 26A, 39P
Maroon: 71GP, 9G, 25A, 34P
Beleskey: 65GP, 22G, 10A, 32P

Still top six.

Calgary Flames
Hudler: 78GP, 31G, 45A, 76P
Gaudreau: 80GP, 24G, 40A, 64P
Monahan: 81GP, 31G, 31A, 62P
Bouma: 78GP, 16G, 18A, 34P
Jones: 67GP, 14G, 16A, 30P
Glencross: 53GP, 9G, 19A, 28P

Definitely in the top six here.

Minnesota Wild
Parise: 74GP, 33G, 29A, 62P
Pominville: 82GP, 18G, 36A, 54P
Vanek: 80GP, 21G, 31A, 52P
Koivu: 80GP, 14G, 34A, 48P
Granlund: 68GP, 8G, 31A, 39P
Niederreiter: 80GP, 24G, 13A, 37P

Yep. Top six. Second and fourth on the team in goals scored.

St. Louis Blues
Tarasenko: 77GP, 37G, 36A, 73P
Steen: 74GP, 24G, 40A, 64P
Schwartz: 75GP, 28G, 35A, 63P
Backes: 80GP, 26G, 32A, 58P
Oshie: 72GP, 19G, 36A, 55P
Stastny: 74GP, 16G, 30A, 46P

Now here finally is a team where you can legitimately claim that neither Smith nor Wilson would displace any of the existing top-six scoring forwards. But they'd still be fifth and sixth on the team in goals scored among forwards.

Vancouver Canucks
D. Sedin: 82GP, 20G, 56A, 76P
H. Sedin: 82GP, 18G, 55A, 73P
Vrbata: 79GP, 31G, 32A, 63P
Bonino: 75GP, 15G, 24A, 39P
Higgins: 77GP, 12G, 24A, 36P
Burrows: 70GP, 18G, 15A, 33P

Top six.

Winnipeg Jets
Ladd: 81GP, 24G, 38A, 62P
Wheeler: 79GP, 26G, 35A, 61P
Little: 70GP, 24G, 28A, 52P
Scheifele: 82GP, 15G, 34A, 49P
Frolik: 82GP, 19G, 23A, 42P
Perreault: 62GP, 18G, 23A, 41P

You could argue that only one of them would get a top-six spot on Winnipeg as well, but still they'd be fourth and fifth in goal-scoring among forwards on the team.

Would I love to see the team have so much scoring depth that they could push Smith and Wilson down to third-line duty? Absolutely, because it would mean they were LOADED offensively. But in the real world they're top six forwards. Ideally second liners, yes, but legitimate players nonetheless. You can argue about streakiness and whatever all you want, but when you look at the numbers the inescapable conclusions are that Smith has shown he is a consistent top six forward, and if Wilson can keep up last year's numbers he'll be one as well although he hasn't yet shown that he can do that every season.

 

[Viqsi]

I posted this back in July, but I think this is pretty comprehensive evidence that you're way off track in your feelings that Smith wouldn't be top six on any of those teams...

...

Would I love to see the team have so much scoring depth that they could push Smith and Wilson down to third-line duty? Absolutely, because it would mean they were LOADED offensively. But in the real world they're top six forwards. Ideally second liners, yes, but legitimate players nonetheless. You can argue about streakiness and whatever all you want, but when you look at the numbers the inescapable conclusions are that Smith has shown he is a consistent top six forward, and if Wilson can keep up last year's numbers he'll be one as well although he hasn't yet shown that he can do that every season.

You get a cookie.

 

[mikemcburn]

Holy hyperbole. I don't know anyone on here or anywhere that thinks Smith is akin to Gretzky.

Also I will never ever understand the mentality of wanting your own players to fail. Clearly being "right" about someone or something is more important than seeing the team do well. You don't have to like every player on the team, but openly rooting for someone to fail just to feed your own ego is so ridiculous.

I'm not seeing anything wrong with "openly rooting for x", emphasis on the "openly" part. Most (all?) of us root for things to unfold a certain way, not as many have the gumption to fess up to what we're hoping/thinking - especially when it runs contrary to the prevailing sentiment.

Where you refer to the motivation behind wanting someone to flop as being an ego booster, I gotta agree that's a common enough driver. But then wanting our beliefs (or thoughts, projections, etc.) to be proven right is a rather common human trait. Common enough, in fact, that I'm not seeing anything abnormal, or even remotely unusual, in the motivation you ascribe to the poster's desires. Nuttin' wrong with wanting to be in the right.

But are you sure that even *is* the poster's motive for wanting to see Smith fail? This question kinda circles back to your comment "Clearly [the poster] being "right" about someone or something is more important than seeing the team do well" - are you sure the poster's motive is so clear? Which is more important (being right about Smith or the Preds doing well) to the poster isn't so clear to me anyway...

You see, I want a that team I'm a fan of to do well, and often think for the team to do well then it needs to dump x guy or guys, replace them with y guy or guys, etc. And often enough it appears that because of certain factors (past investments into player development, GM egos on past wheeling 'n dealings, contract terms, etc.), unless/until guy x totally bombs, the status quo will be maintained and the team will therefore never quite get over that hump I envision it has to do as well as I want.

If I were to assume that the poster's motive re: Smith flopping stems from a similar reasoning, then it's "clear" to me that he wants Smith to flop, not at the expense of or for the demise of, but rather for the betterment of the team. Meaning his motive may in fact being a total 180 on what you're presuming.

Then there's the thing about how it is that while we are fans of teams generally, we also become fans of specific players - and often enough the guy(s) we are specific fans of just aren't gonna see the same opportunity unless/until someone else flops. That's a hard basic fact of life generally, and this sport specifically. In fact, it's at the very foundation of the sport - competition.

We watch our teams as a whole compete to win, but within each and every team, the guys are also competing against each other. Sure, you're not gonna hear many admit as much during a post-game presser, after all they're supposed to be all buddy buddy, keep the more raw human locker room stuff buried in that locker room, be gushy polite/professional yakking up buddy, etc.

But you know, talk to these guys off the record and you'll hear it straight up - guys on the same team are competing with each other for the same ice time, to get the seemingly better quality linemates/pairings, etc. They may be professional (and smart) enough not to outright rejoice when a guy in the depth chart ahead of them gets into the coach's doghouse, but fact is that even if they like the guy, they ain't complaining that the net result is that they, themselves, get a crack at snagging the extra ice time, etc.

It's really all about competition, and there's only two ways to win a competition - to either be better than the other guy, or for the other guy to not to be better than you (aka: to flop). These players we often think so highly of, well, they're simply human too. And being on the same team doesn't negate the fact that they're competing with each other too.

Meaning it's just not "wrong" that we, as fans, while wanting the team as a whole to win, also want our fav players on those specific teams to win - even at the expense of other guys on the same team. It's all about competition, it's all human.

All in, I guess I just don't see the other poster's comments to have the same ring of ugly character that you seem to ascribe to him. To the contrary, I find his "openness" to be refreshingly not politically correct.

 

[Drake744]

I don't think Byrd wants Smith to fail/flop/suck/be a turd/whatever, I think he just sort of "enjoys" when he's not being productive because of the "I told you so" factor, seeing as how the vast majority of Preds fans do, in fact, like him and there is certainly a percentage of fans who think he's awesome (I wouldn't go quite that far, but I'm a big fan regardless). I mean, I even have a Smith jersey that I occasionally will wear, but, that may or may not be because we share names. Anyway, Byrd has said multiple times that he wants the team to succeed over anything else.

 

[preds1]

Jarnkrok is my polished turd. We all have one, especially after a loss.

 

[NSH615]

Jarnkrok is my polished turd. We all have one, especially after a loss.

Nystrom.....complete failure of a player.

 

[Drake744]

Jarnkrok is my polished turd. We all have one, especially after a loss.

I don't really have one. Nystrom kinda sucks but I don't hate him with the ferocity that some others do.

I think Danny Markov was so much of a turd back in the day that I can't feel that much animosity for anyone anymore. I'm burned out.

 

[mikemcburn]

Jarnkrok is my polished turd. We all have one, especially after a loss.

I don't yet, have a Nashville turd, that is. But I'm open to suggestions?

 

[Drake744]

I don't yet, have a Nashville turd, that is. But I'm open to suggestions?

To be quite honest, this team is constructed well enough to where there aren't many turd candidates right now. Nystrom is probably the most despised player on the team. I don't despise him but he isn't that good.

 

[Byrddog]

I don't think Byrd wants Smith to fail/flop/suck/be a turd/whatever, I think he just sort of "enjoys" when he's not being productive because of the "I told you so" factor, seeing as how the vast majority of Preds fans do, in fact, like him and there is certainly a percentage of fans who think he's awesome (I wouldn't go quite that far, but I'm a big fan regardless). I mean, I even have a Smith jersey that I occasionally will wear, but, that may or may not be because we share names. Anyway, Byrd has said multiple times that he wants the team to succeed over anything else.

The I told you so has had no influence whatso ever in this. As Mike pointed out it is all about team performance and betterment of the team. And to just regurgitate stats to prove Smith would be top 6 in the teams I mentioned does not tell the entire story. If one looks at Smiths productivity thru the game logs this is what you find. Small sections of the season where he is red hot and long stretches where there is little. There was one segment last year that saved his entire year 10 points in 11 games when he returned from the 1st line to play with Fish at first then Cullen. Only to go stone cold for the last 19 games of the season and have 3 goals and 5 asst with 1 goal coming from the PP. Now combine that with the time on the 1st line where he played 23 games where he had 4 goals an 4 asst's with 2 of the goals coming on the PP.

These results when considered are more accurate than the raw stats that were inflated due to the two brief periods he was hot. Now goal scorers are streaky I can agree and if he or Wilson for that matter put up points and helped the team across the season rather than in brief spots I would not have a point. That is not the case, and with the horrid 3rd line of last season combined with Smith and Wilsons 1 goal and 2 assists over the last 23 games contributed more to the end of the year skid than Rinne who got 99% of the blame.

Effective top 6 players do not have these periods in there game no matter how there full season stats look. And this has not been a single year thing both Wilson and Smith have had the same issues there entire career. At this point there here long term and I hope like hell they can correct this for the teams sake. I do not see either projecting much higher but I do in fact think that Wilson will be better in the long run he is more talented and valuable due to his two way game. Smith is merely a sniper that has difficulty finishing, he would benefit playing 3rd line due to match-ups but his defensive game makes him a liability on the 3rd line. I know as I type this most will not understand the point but nonetheless these two players are actually holding this team back. Neal had a horrid year but I expect him to re-bound. But the ineffectiveness of last years second line provided other teams the ability to focus on Ribs line on most nights.

Now to this season starting today we are no more improved the 3rd line even with CoHo at center is not proven and will not be effective with Arvidsson and Jarnkrok on the wings there. So its the same old same old with the top 6. Before too long were going to see Fiala and Moses back here which may hurt the kid but theres not much choice. Hopefully PL will break Wilson or Smith off the 2nd and create something on the 3rd. He has to find some kind of combination within Smith, Wilson, Fiala, Moses to create some balanced scoring and some difficulty for other teams to defend against. Just throwing Smith and Wilson back out there with Fish does nothing but repeat the previous years. We now have 4 4th line wings Nystrom, Jarnkrok, Borque, Watson two more than we need and it makes little difference who PL rolls out there theres little production but most of the defensive forwards. Taking the Gamble on Moses and Fiala did not work out for the start of the season Poiles fault or Lavy or both shoulder that decision.

The fact remains the team has a 6 game regular season losing streak right now going into tonight. A game on paper they should win with relative ease. In fact there putting the same team out there that ended the regular season with our elite goalie who took one on the chin the last game of pre season. Yet we expect better results???? We will get a goal from the top line tonight but can we find a couple more im not sure. The good thing its opening night and its at home. If they come out flat in the first I expect a 2-1 loss probably in OT. Then here comes the Oil with a real chance to win. Then the season gets rough these first 10 games are critical and is loaded with teams that are better scoring.

As far as the Smith hatred from me well for the most part a number of you have created it trying to convince me of his value. And to the enjoy watching him fail yes I will because that means he will be replaced with someone that does a better job for the team. Is it Fiala, Moses, Arvidsson or moving Sissions to wing or Watson catching fire I really do not care but the 2nd and 3rd lines have to be stabilized now. I do not see Rinne carrying this team until the kids grow up with a .930 and 1.6 GA. And if I like it or not Smith is here for the duration because I just can't see a GM taking that contract if he looks at the performance game to game that Smith puts forth. Again raw stats are misleading at times otherwise Nystrom would have a bigger role on this team he does have the single game scoring record with 4 goals afterall

 

[mikemcburn]

To be quite honest, this team is constructed well enough to where there aren't many turd candidates right now. Nystrom is probably the most despised player on the team. I don't despise him but he isn't that good.

Now that sucks. I mean, sure, it's good for the team, but it sucks for fan bonding. A lotta good friendships have been formed over common hatred

 

[jwhouk]

It will always be Jan Vopat for me.

(Why do I suddenly have an itch?)

 

[King Weber]

Forwards

Neal - 24
Fisher - 17
Smith - 25
Wilson - 21
Ribeiro - 11
Gaustad - 3
Nystrom - 1
Hodgson - 10
Forsberg - 28
Bourque - 3
Järnkrok - 9
Arvidsson - 6
Watson - 4
Fiala - 7
Moses - 8

= 177 goals

Defensemen

Weber - 17
Josi - 14
Ellis - 10
Jackman - 2
Ekholm - 6
Jones - 10
Bartley - 2
Bitetto - 1

= 62 goals


177 + 62 = 239, which makes it roughly 2.91 goals per game.

 

[King Weber]

Figured that since the regular season is now over, I'd bump this thread and see how the predictions turned out.

Forwards

Neal - 24 (31)
Fisher - 17 (13)
Smith - 25 (21)
Wilson - 21 (6)
Ribeiro - 11 (7)
Gaustad - 3 (2)
Nystrom - 1 (7)
Hodgson - 10 (3)
Forsberg - 28 (33)
Bourque - 3 (1)
Järnkrok - 9 (16)
Arvidsson - 6 (8)
Watson - 4 (3)
Fiala - 7 (1)
Moses - 8 (0)

= 177 goals (152 + Johansen (8) + Salomaki (5) + Sissons (4) = 17 = 169)

Defensemen

Weber - 17 (20)
Josi - 14 (14)
Ellis - 10 (10)
Jackman - 2 (1)
Ekholm - 6 (8)
Jones - 10 (1)
Bartley - 2 (0)
Bitetto - 1 (1)

= 62 goals (55)


177 + 62 = 239, which makes it roughly 2.91 goals per game.
(169 + 55 = 224 = 2.73 goals per game) (w/ Johansen, Sissons, Salomaki)
(152 + 55 = 207 = 2.52 goals per game) (w/o Johansen, Sissons, Salomaki)

not too bad I guess. Got three right on the money.

 

[Scoresberg]

Damn, Jarny hit 16? Sweet, hope he can keep it up. He really bought himself more time in Nashville. Our #2-3C when Ribs and Fish are gone.

 

[Pred303]

predicted 233 goals, we scored 224.
predicted 177 goals for forwards, they scored 169
predicted 56 goals for d-men, they scored 55.

 

[NSH615]

predicted 233 goals, we scored 224.
predicted 177 goals for forwards, they scored 169
predicted 56 goals for d-men, they scored 55.

Wilson's 6 goals really hurt you here. Well that and a lack of Moses/Fiala and Hodgson floundering.

 

[Drake744]

Forsberg 31 (33)
Ribeiro 16 (7)
Neal 23 (31)
Wilson 17 (6)
Fisher 20 (13)
Smith 25 (21)
Jarnkrok 6 (16)
Arvidsson 7 (8)
Hodgson 9 (3)
Gaustad 5 (2)
Nystrom 6 (7)
Bourque 4 (1)
Watson 2 (3)
Fiala 9 (1)
Moses 5 (0)

Forwards = 185 (177)

Weber 15 (20)
Josi 17 (14)
Ekholm 6 (8)
Ellis 8 (10)
Jones 9 (1)
Jackman 2 (1)

Defense = 57 (55)

I was a little off but I had a feeling my team total was a little high.

 

[preds1]

Never done this before, but here goes......


Forsberg 26 (33)
Smith 22 (21)
Neal 22 (31)
Fisher 20 (13)
Wilson 18 (6)
Ribeiro 12 (7)
Jarnkrok 8 (16)
Arvidsson 8 (8)
Hodgson 8 (3)
Nystrom 6 (7)
Bourque 5 (1)
Gaustad 4 (2)
Watson 2 (3)
Fiala 2 (1)
Moses 1 (0)

164 for the forwards

Weber 20 (20)
Josi 16 (14)
Ellis 9 (10)
Ekholm 7 (8)
Jones 6 (1)
Jackman 3 (1)

61 for the defense

Rinne 1 (EN Goal)

226 for the team

Off by 2 goals.....

 

[Byrddog]

it won't take 105 points to make the playoffs byrd. we finished with only 104 last year. maybe 97-98 will be right on the fringe.

Have to give you that one. I was over ambitious on the strength of the central pre-season. I would have sworn that 2015's 99 to get in would have been passed by a few points. The collapse of The Preds mid season the Wild and Ave's and Jets was the real surprise to me. Getting the 7th seed with 96 points is a disappointment for the west who preseason looked to be leaps and bounds above the east.

 

[drwpreds]

Have to give you that one. I was over ambitious on the strength of the central pre-season. I would have sworn that 2015's 99 to get in would have been passed by a few points. The collapse of The Preds mid season the Wild and Ave's and Jets was the real surprise to me. Getting the 7th seed with 96 points is a disappointment for the west who preseason looked to be leaps and bounds above the east.

Some of the bottom teams underachieved for sure, but I still think the West is much, much better than the East- have a post on this very subject in another thread. The top 7 teams in the West are dang good..........

 

[Byrddog]

Some of the bottom teams underachieved for sure, but I still think the West is much, much better than the East- have a post on this very subject in another thread. The top 7 teams in the West are dang good..........

Yes I saw that post and in your opinion the Preds are 7th if I recall among the 16 playoff teams. Your entitled to that opinion. But Vegas disagrees with you as well as every talking head I have seen. The highest I have seen the Preds ranked is 12 and most think they are 15 or 16. And I think that's about right. If I were to rank the 30 teams in the league That's about where I would put them at this point due to the failures of Those western teams I mentioned. If you Only consider the last 15 games of the season They would again be at the 17 - 20 where I thought they would be preseason. I Predicted preseason the P{reds would have 97 points and miss the playoffs by 8. Since 2015 it took 99 points for the Jets to take WC2 I thought the West and central in particular set up to up that margin. That's why im a little disappointed that 96 took WC1. In the old NHL of no 3 point games 90 points was almost assured a playoff spot with that considered The bar is now 100 points really. And honestly if the Preds were able to do anything whatsoever in OT They would have been north of 100.