Goal Scoring Predictions

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
it won't take 105 points to make the playoffs byrd. we finished with only 104 last year. maybe 97-98 will be right on the fringe.


Hawks 110-115
Blues 108-115
Wild 100-110
Dallas 99-103
Jets 98-102
Preds 95-98
Aves 90-95

Ducks 108- 111
Calgary 99-103
Kings 98-105
Nucks 98-101
Sharks 65-75
Oil 60-70
Yotes 50-55

I honestly think theres 3 weak sisters in the West, The 105 I refered to is what I would be comfortable with to get past the Jets or Starts for a wild card. And yeah I worry too much that's what happens when your retired and love this sport I guess, so you need to work til yer dead or you could well become as cynical as I am. I can honestly picture you sitting there wrenching your hands glasses down on the end of your nose and some good lookin lil creature bringing you Mi-Thi's as your head spins with stats. :laugh:
 

mikemcburn

Registered User
Oct 23, 2013
2,233
0

Interesting. And possibly weird.

Nuttin' in there about Arvidsson (who is actually on the opening night roster) while Moses (who isn't) is projected to hit 28 pts (16g+12a) in 63 games, and Fiala (who isn't) is projected to hit 29pts (9g+20a) in 59 games? Then there's Hodgson, projected to talley 39 points, but somehow with a disparity between his goals (15) and assists (24) that he's never had throughout his entire career, while somehow having a near career year in shots (139) and only snagging 1 power play point (heck, even last year he had one of those, lol).

I dunno, totally fantasy stuff :laugh:
 

thecloser

Registered User
Jun 29, 2012
2,369
46
NASHVILLE, TN
Forsberg 25
Ribeiro 14
Neal 38
Wilson 17
Fisher 17
Smith 22
Jarnkrok 3
Arvidsson 12
Hodgson 13
Gaustad 6
Nystrom 4
Bourque 3
Watson 2
Fiala 10
Moses 16

202 Total for Forwards

Weber 16
Josi 18
Ekholm 6
Ellis 9
Jones 10
Jackman 1
Bartley 0
Bitetto 1

61 Total for Defensemen

263 Total for team: 3.207 GPG - Wouldn't Be Bad :handclap:

I think Nystrom, Bourque, Watson and Jarnkrok don't play so much and I do think Jarnkrok may be traded if he doesn't step it up quite a bit.

I know, I know; Neal's goal total is real high but I think he knows he needs to produce goals....and I can dream haha
 
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mikemcburn

Registered User
Oct 23, 2013
2,233
0
Forsberg 25
Ribeiro 14
Neal 38
Wilson 17
Fisher 17
Smith 22
Jarnkrok 3
Arvidsson 12
Hodgson 13
Gaustad 6
Nystrom 4
Bourque 3
Watson 2
Fiala 10
Moses 16

202 Total for Forwards

Weber 16
Josi 18
Ekholm 6
Ellis 9
Jones 10
Jackman 1
Bartley 0
Bitetto 1

61 Total for Defensemen

263 Total for team: 3.207 GPG - Wouldn't Be Bad :handclap:

I think Nystrom, Bourque, Watson and Jarnkrok don't play so much and I do think Jarnkrok may be traded if he doesn't step it up quite a bit.

I know, I know; Neal's goal total is real high but I think he knows he needs to produce goals....and I can dream haha

Like your totals, but I've got waaay more hope for the bottom 6, especially the 3rd line where there are so many options/variables if the opening night roster stumbles. But then I guess we kinda gotta combine your projections for Arvidsson/Jarnkrok with those for Fiala and Moses, so maybe it equals out.

Hope for Jarnkrok's sake that he doesn't flounder as you project. With the youth primed for call-ups, he's getting long in the tooth to stake a claim to a regular roster spot - or having a slew of trade value.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
Interesting. And possibly weird.

Nuttin' in there about Arvidsson (who is actually on the opening night roster) while Moses (who isn't) is projected to hit 28 pts (16g+12a) in 63 games, and Fiala (who isn't) is projected to hit 29pts (9g+20a) in 59 games? Then there's Hodgson, projected to talley 39 points, but somehow with a disparity between his goals (15) and assists (24) that he's never had throughout his entire career, while somehow having a near career year in shots (139) and only snagging 1 power play point (heck, even last year he had one of those, lol).

I dunno, totally fantasy stuff :laugh:

That's what we do here is live in fantasy. We have seen guesses from 216 to 286 from folks here. The facts are since inception the team has averaged 2.44 gpg or slightly over 200 goals per season. This team is above the average team we have had but how much? We have no idea since the results are going to hinge on a couple guys not starting the season here another rookie that has made the lineup a couple of aging centers a soph coming off a hot rookie year a borderline elite scorer that is coming off the worst year since he was a rook and two guys with fat new contracts that have been known for there inconsistency more than there ability. The team had 232 goals last year we all hope that number to go up a few but with all the question marks 232 would be a good year for this roster.
 

mikemcburn

Registered User
Oct 23, 2013
2,233
0
That's what we do here is live in fantasy. We have seen guesses from 216 to 286 from folks here. The facts are since inception the team has averaged 2.44 gpg or slightly over 200 goals per season. This team is above the average team we have had but how much? We have no idea since the results are going to hinge on a couple guys not starting the season here another rookie that has made the lineup a couple of aging centers a soph coming off a hot rookie year a borderline elite scorer that is coming off the worst year since he was a rook and two guys with fat new contracts that have been known for there inconsistency more than there ability. The team had 232 goals last year we all hope that number to go up a few but with all the question marks 232 would be a good year for this roster.

After the last two years watching the Sabres (and trying to navigate both media commentary and discussion boards to find odd slivers of positive sentiment), I'd really rather spend some time living in a la-la land of 243+ goals.

So, please, please, please don't bring any more practical concerns into my fantasy world here. Give me at least 10-ish games before I gotta come down to earth, k?
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
1,729
Nashville
After the last two years watching the Sabres (and trying to navigate both media commentary and discussion boards to find odd slivers of positive sentiment), I'd really rather spend some time living in a la-la land of 243+ goals.

So, please, please, please don't bring any more practical concerns into my fantasy world here. Give me at least 10-ish games before I gotta come down to earth, k?
Byrddog is more or less the board pessimist. I don't mean that in a bad way, he just has a reputation for being critical or negative a lot.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
After the last two years watching the Sabres (and trying to navigate both media commentary and discussion boards to find odd slivers of positive sentiment), I'd really rather spend some time living in a la-la land of 243+ goals.

So, please, please, please don't bring any more practical concerns into my fantasy world here. Give me at least 10-ish games before I gotta come down to earth, k?

I know where your comin from, the wifes favorite team is the Sabres. So I have seen every game of theres since MAY DAY MAY DAY MAY DAY. You have had some good times there in the Hasek years. But there on the upswing now and if they can get some goaltending might have a shot at the post season.

As to me being a pessimist guess im guilty. Im most know for my absolute hatered of Craig Smith of which I do not deny, that makes me unpopular here since many think he is akin to Gretsky. So I will enjoy watching the guy fail. He is a mear Mason Raymond 2.0 and we have all seen what happened to Raymond in the last couple days. I am overly critical of the team sure nuff but the opinions are mine and they have been formed over many years of being an Oil fan before the Preds were born and actually watching other team than the Preds which many just do not have time to do. I am not always right and will admit that as well unlike some of my critics. Before Smith My whipping boy was another fan favorite Tootoo.

Now to encourage you theres a real good chance that Buffalo has more goals than the Preds this season. Funny you mention the first 10 games because they are gonna be the most important streach of this season here The first 5 games being the most critical. The Preds must win the first two because the last 5 of the 10 are going to be brutal. If they slip up and lose to Carolina or the Oil by game 10 there will be a suicide watch on this board.
 

mikemcburn

Registered User
Oct 23, 2013
2,233
0
I know where your comin from, the wifes favorite team is the Sabres. So I have seen every game of theres since MAY DAY MAY DAY MAY DAY. You have had some good times there in the Hasek years. But there on the upswing now and if they can get some goaltending might have a shot at the post season.

As to me being a pessimist guess im guilty. Im most know for my absolute hatered of Craig Smith of which I do not deny, that makes me unpopular here since many think he is akin to Gretsky. So I will enjoy watching the guy fail. He is a mear Mason Raymond 2.0 and we have all seen what happened to Raymond in the last couple days. I am overly critical of the team sure nuff but the opinions are mine and they have been formed over many years of being an Oil fan before the Preds were born and actually watching other team than the Preds which many just do not have time to do. I am not always right and will admit that as well unlike some of my critics. Before Smith My whipping boy was another fan favorite Tootoo.

Now to encourage you theres a real good chance that Buffalo has more goals than the Preds this season. Funny you mention the first 10 games because they are gonna be the most important streach of this season here The first 5 games being the most critical. The Preds must win the first two because the last 5 of the 10 are going to be brutal. If they slip up and lose to Carolina or the Oil by game 10 there will be a suicide watch on this board.

Lol, you became my fav with your comment on Smith. Not because I agree (I am not qualified to tender an opinion on him one way or the other), but simply cuz you're willing to call it straight up, no apologies or rationalizations. Love it. Wish more people would simply admit to the fact that they love or hate a guy period, rather than try to revert to bashing (the player) based on unsubstantiated rumor and conjecture or trashing (opposing view points) on the basis of one's age or whose mother slept with who ;-)

As I recall, and if I've got your username in memory correctly, you're in the Sabres board too, and in the past there have expressed both favourable and not so favourable views on Hodgson? If I've got that right, then I'll look forward to some banter with you on this board over the season. Just as you hate Smith, I'm partial to Hodgson, though do try to see the whole player, good and bad, and retain at least some measure of balance.

I suspect you're dead on re: the importance of the first 10-ish games. But then I'm speculating that if the opening roster fairs well in that stretch, it'll likely survive a later extended sluggish period before drastic changes are made, whereas if the opening roster flops over the first 10-ish games, drastic changes will quickly follow with guys bounced up from and down into the minors, poss even a snappy trade.

(ps: I was never a fav of Raymond either, so at least we'll always have one point to agree upon ;-))
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
Lol, you became my fav with your comment on Smith. Not because I agree (I am not qualified to tender an opinion on him one way or the other), but simply cuz you're willing to call it straight up, no apologies or rationalizations. Love it. Wish more people would simply admit to the fact that they love or hate a guy period, rather than try to revert to bashing (the player) based on unsubstantiated rumor and conjecture or trashing (opposing view points) on the basis of one's age or whose mother slept with who ;-)

As I recall, and if I've got your username in memory correctly, you're in the Sabres board too, and in the past there have expressed both favourable and not so favourable views on Hodgson? If I've got that right, then I'll look forward to some banter with you on this board over the season. Just as you hate Smith, I'm partial to Hodgson, though do try to see the whole player, good and bad, and retain at least some measure of balance.

I suspect you're dead on re: the importance of the first 10-ish games. But then I'm speculating that if the opening roster fairs well in that stretch, it'll likely survive a later extended sluggish period before drastic changes are made, whereas if the opening roster flops over the first 10-ish games, drastic changes will quickly follow with guys bounced up from and down into the minors, poss even a snappy trade.

(ps: I was never a fav of Raymond either, so at least we'll always have one point to agree upon ;-))

Yes you have me right about the Sabres board. I have like Hodgson since they got the kid from Vancouver. His downfall was Lindy getting fired and the dismantling of that team. He has to have some talent around him to be effective. That's a question here who PL puts with him if he sticks with Jarnkrok and Arvidsson that line will fail miserably I don't think Lavi will do that he showed last year the willingness t swap players around If CoHo does something like 15 g 25 a for 40 he will be in the top 6 here as early as next year. If not they will let him walk. I hope it works out and I also Hope Cody will play some defense he was horrible in Buffalo defensively.

Your moving to this team in a real sketchy time IMO. This is the last hurrah for Rinne, Weber if this team fails there may be a dismantling just as what happened to the Sabres and most of this is going to hinge on Rinne. If he is just average this year his replacement is still at least two years out in Sarros and with Ribs and Fish questionable being the 1 and 2 C with no replacement in sight the situation somewhat mirrors Buffalo before the breakup. Thedifference Buffalo had a good offense under Ruff and we have a good back end. You for sure understand the balance that a team needs after Seeing Miller crap the bed with junk defense while having a offense that could pot goals.

A to Raymond and Smith all one has to do is look at there stats side by side to get where see comparison. Heck even the contracts now match. Raymondstarted slow had a couple decent years then tanked. ANd that what I see coming. Andif you watch the guy skate hes fast as the wind while skating forwards but backwards hes in mud. That's the reason you will not see hm on the PK unless its a mistake. He is willing to check along the boards which should make him valuable on the PK but he gets burned skating backwards in our zone, always has but its just ignored.
 
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Pred303

Registered User
Oct 8, 2004
7,881
2,895
Murfreesboro, Tn.
i know there is no point in arguing about things. but here are a few counter points to byrd's feeling of imminent doom.

..we are in the 5 youngest teams in the league by average age.
..5 of our 7 defensemen are between 21-25.
..weber is only 30 and should have 3-4 more years ahead of him before we see a drastic decline.
..rinne is 32. we don't have to replace him this year or next barring an unforeseen disasterous injury.
..we have an exceptionally young group of forwards on the opening day roster
..neal is only 27, forsberg is 21, fiala is 18
..admittedly fisher and ribiero are long in the tooth at 35 and need to be replaced soon. but we have valuable trade material with this number of young fowards, large salary cap flexibility (better than anyone in the division) and a decent history in the free agent market to replace them.
..smith is a solid 2nd line forward.

i think the foreseeable future is bright. probably brighter than the present honestly.
 
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drwpreds

Registered User
Mar 19, 2012
7,870
2,999
Birmingham
Really interesting reading everyone’s goal predictions. One thing I will say is I hope a lot of you are going to be wrong on Neal, as I see a lot of people having him in the 20’s.

If he stays healthy I will be disappointed if he doesn’t have 30+. (Although I looked it up and was surprised to see he has only done that one time, 40 with Pittsburgh in 2012. Other than that the most he has scored in a season is 27).

But staying healthy is a really big if for him though.........
 

Paranoid Android

mug mug mug
Sep 17, 2006
13,008
412
Really interesting reading everyone’s goal predictions. One thing I will say is I hope a lot of you are going to be wrong on Neal, as I see a lot of people having him in the 20’s.

If he stays healthy I will be disappointed if he doesn’t have 30+. (Although I looked it up and was surprised to see he has only done that one time, 40 with Pittsburgh in 2012. Other than that the most he has scored in a season is 27).

But staying healthy is a really big if for him though.........



I was about to chime in with the same. We really need a big year from Neal IMO. I'd like to see 35, or at least a pace of.

Even though he's technically only broke 30 once, he's been on pace to do so 2 other times (lockout season: 43 pace, injured season: 37 pace). He also got close last year with a 27 goal pace. Anything less than a 30 goal pace will be disappointing to me.
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
1,729
Nashville
I was about to chime in with the same. We really need a big year from Neal IMO. I'd like to see 35, or at least a pace of.

Even though he's technically only broke 30 once, he's been on pace to do so 2 other times (injury and lockout). He also got close last year with a 27 goal pace. Anything less than a 30 goal pace will be disappointing to me.
Anyone remember when Neal was taken off the first line last season? From Oct. 9 to Nov. 15 he had 9 goals so he started last year off pretty hot.
 

NSH615

...
Feb 13, 2013
11,119
981
Anyone remember when Neal was taken off the first line last season? From Oct. 9 to Nov. 15 he had 9 goals so he started last year off pretty hot.

When he got injured in mid December (About a week before Christmas). Smith replaced him and they just kept it that way for months.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
Anyone remember when Neal was taken off the first line last season? From Oct. 9 to Nov. 15 he had 9 goals so he started last year off pretty hot.

Smiths first game on 1st line last year was the Boston game on 12-23 he returned to Wilson Fish on 2-14 against the devils. He was with Ribs and FF9 23 games scored 4 goals 2 were 5 on 5 and 2 on PP he had 4 asst's during the span for a total of 8 points in 23 games.

You may not like it but its the facts
 

Pred303

Registered User
Oct 8, 2004
7,881
2,895
Murfreesboro, Tn.
Smiths first game on 1st line last year was the Boston game on 12-23 he returned to Wilson Fish on 2-14 against the devils. He was with Ribs and FF9 23 games scored 4 goals 2 were 5 on 5 and 2 on PP he had 4 asst's during the span for a total of 8 points in 23 games.

You may not like it but its the facts

all 20-25 goal scorers are streaky over periods, that's why they are 20 goal scorers instead of 30 something goal scorers. when you average scoring 1 goal every 4 games on average you are going to be streaky.

look at where we were goal scoring last year right near the hallway point (game 40 actually);

Forsberg 14
Neal 13
Smith 12
Wilson 11
Weber 10
Ribiero 9
Fisher 7

basically the first half and last half were almost exactly the same for all our 20 goal scorers (Forsberg, Neal, Smith, Wilson). Fisher had only played 29 games at the 40 game mark so he really scored at virtually the same pace the second half as the first as well. Weber dropped off due to injury.

What hurt us was the dramatic difference in Rinne in the second half compared to the first half and that secondary scoring outside of these 7 was down.

you always hear so and so is an inconsistent scorer. and that's always going to be true for mid level scorers. it's why they're mid level scorers honestly. when you hear this from management what they are really saying is we don't want Wilson to be a 20 goal scorer, we think he should be a 30 something goal scorer.

one can almost make the argument that a streaky scorer who scores 22 goals, including spurts of several 2 goal games is as important as a guy who went out and scored exactly one goal every 4 games. that streaky guy might win you games singlehandedly those nights he was on that otherwise you lose. and maybe that 1 goal every 4 games guy might well have been goals that never singlehandedly won you a game.

to me a 23 goal scorer. well he is a 23 goal scorer however they happened. especially when they go out and do it in consecutive years.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
all 20-25 goal scorers are streaky over periods, that's why they are 20 goal scorers instead of 30 something goal scorers. when you average scoring 1 goal every 4 games on average you are going to be streaky.

look at where we were goal scoring last year right near the hallway point (game 40 actually);

Forsberg 14
Neal 13
Smith 12
Wilson 11
Weber 10
Ribiero 9
Fisher 7

basically the first half and last half were almost exactly the same for all our 20 goal scorers (Forsberg, Neal, Smith, Wilson). Fisher had only played 29 games at the 40 game mark so he really scored at virtually the same pace the second half as the first as well. Weber dropped off due to injury.

What hurt us was the dramatic difference in Rinne in the second half compared to the first half and that secondary scoring outside of these 7 was down.

you always hear so and so is an inconsistent scorer. and that's always going to be true for mid level scorers. it's why they're mid level scorers honestly. when you hear this from management what they are really saying is we don't want Wilson to be a 20 goal scorer, we think he should be a 30 something goal scorer.

one can almost make the argument that a streaky scorer who scores 22 goals, including spurts of several 2 goal games is as important as a guy who went out and scored exactly one goal every 4 games. that streaky guy might win you games singlehandedly those nights he was on that otherwise you lose. and maybe that 1 goal every 4 games guy might well have been goals that never singlehandedly won you a game.

to me a 23 goal scorer. well he is a 23 goal scorer however they happened. especially when they go out and do it in consecutive years.

Steve I do not disagree with you much but I can't buy in on Smith after the stint on the top line he goes to Fish line has 6 goals and 4 asst in the next 11 games saving his season. Then the remaining 18 games the guy had 2 goals 3 asst. He had two short stretches where he was on FIRE the rest of the year nothing..... I can not call that a solid top 6 player for any team. Take a look at JVR similar player who had one cold streak of 6 games I think it was the remainder of the year he went no longer than 3 games without hitting the scoresheet and this is on a horrid Toronto team where he did not play 1st line.

My hate part aside Smith can get it done with 10 to 12 multi point games out of 82 games the remainder is sprinkled into long scoreless streaks. Not have a 8 game streak with no points like last season then another 18 game streak with 2 5 on 5 goals and 3 assts... These do not add up to solid nor consistent play. ANd its not just last year its every damn year same song, he is top 6 here because PL has no other options yet.
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
1,729
Nashville
Steve I do not disagree with you much but I can't buy in on Smith after the stint on the top line he goes to Fish line has 6 goals and 4 asst in the next 11 games saving his season. Then the remaining 18 games the guy had 2 goals 3 asst. He had two short stretches where he was on FIRE the rest of the year nothing..... I can not call that a solid top 6 player for any team. Take a look at JVR similar player who had one cold streak of 6 games I think it was the remainder of the year he went no longer than 3 games without hitting the scoresheet and this is on a horrid Toronto team where he did not play 1st line.

My hate part aside Smith can get it done with 10 to 12 multi point games out of 82 games the remainder is sprinkled into long scoreless streaks. Not have a 8 game streak with no points like last season then another 18 game streak with 2 5 on 5 goals and 3 assts... These do not add up to solid nor consistent play. ANd its not just last year its every damn year same song, he is top 6 here because PL has no other options yet.
Whatever someone's feelings are on Smith, I think it's safe to say that if there's a team playing him on a 3rd line because there are legitimately that many players good enough to play over him over the course of 82 games....that team is a serious contender for a Cup. I don't think there are many teams in this league that Smith would be a full-time third liner on.
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
7,484
827
Whatever someone's feelings are on Smith, I think it's safe to say that if there's a team playing him on a 3rd line because there are legitimately that many players good enough to play over him....that team is a serious contender for a Cup. I don't think there are many teams in this league that Smith would be a full-time third liner on.

Lets see off top of my head
Dallas
StLouis
Chicago
Anaheim
LA
Oil Yes there kids are better
Tampa
Rangers
Colorado there kids are better also
Habs
Jackets

Now if one starts to compare two way game there can be others added for the position.

We have become complacent to half assed forwards since Sully Karyia Dumont Radulov years. Now if someone scores 20 there put on a pedestal.
 

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