Goal Scoring Predictions
- Thread starter Pred303
- Start date
If they're really running a "top 9 group", designing the 2nd & 3rd line to both be offensive contributors, I'd kinda expect more from Jarnkrok/Arvidsson (or Moses?) & Hodgson. Guess it kinda depends on special teams too, but I easily see Hodgson returning to 20g form. I mean, he put up 19g his rookie season mostly playing 3C for the Canucks. He's a playmaker first, sure, but he's not afraid to shoot the puck.
Pred303
Registered User
lol sorry I had to adjust my individual totals downward to meet my 233 team guess. really hope you're right on hodgson, we ran three scoring lines last year and didn't get double digit scoring from anyone on the third line lol.
Forsberg 31
Ribeiro 16
Neal 23
Wilson 17
Fisher 20
Smith 25
Jarnkrok 6
Arvidsson 7
Hodgson 9
Gaustad 5
Nystrom 6
Bourque 4
Watson 2
Fiala 9
Moses 5
Forwards = 185
weber 15
Josi 17
ekholm 6
ellis 8
Jones 9
Jackman 2
Defense = 57
I guess that leaves my predictions at 242 with an average of 2.92/game, which almost certainly means I'm over estimating something. And that something probably rhymes with Bilip Borsberg.
You obviously know more about Hodgson's game that I do but my shot-in-the-dark prediction of 9 goals for him doesn't mean I think he'll be bad offensively, I just expect that maybe he'll rack up assists rather than points. I know you weren't replying to me but, just saying.
Also, as a side note we had Derek Roy essentially playing Hodgson's new role for awhile last season and that was a complete disaster so that taste still lingers.
Ribeiro 16
Neal 23
Wilson 17
Fisher 20
Smith 25
Jarnkrok 6
Arvidsson 7
Hodgson 9
Gaustad 5
Nystrom 6
Bourque 4
Watson 2
Fiala 9
Moses 5
Forwards = 185
weber 15
Josi 17
ekholm 6
ellis 8
Jones 9
Jackman 2
Defense = 57
I guess that leaves my predictions at 242 with an average of 2.92/game, which almost certainly means I'm over estimating something. And that something probably rhymes with Bilip Borsberg.
You obviously know more about Hodgson's game that I do but my shot-in-the-dark prediction of 9 goals for him doesn't mean I think he'll be bad offensively, I just expect that maybe he'll rack up assists rather than points. I know you weren't replying to me but, just saying.
Also, as a side note we had Derek Roy essentially playing Hodgson's new role for awhile last season and that was a complete disaster so that taste still lingers.
Last edited:
Byrddog
Lifer
- Nov 23, 2007
- 7,484
- 827
Forsberg 18
Ribeiro 14
Neal 32
Wilson 16
Fisher 22
Smith 19
Jarnkrok 4
Arvidsson 10
Hodgson 12
Gaustad 5
Nystrom 6
Bourque 4
Watson 2
Fiala 11
Moses 14
189 total
weber 12
Josi 14
eckholm 7
ellis 9
Jones 9
Jackman 2
total 53
team total 242 Probably a little high
FF has a soph struggle at some point
Wilson takes a step back
Smith without Cullen who carried the turd polish last season
Neal steps up
Riberio pots 14 and leads the team with 68 points
Both Fiala and Moses are in the lineup before Christmas
Team finishes with 97 points 8 short of the playoffs.
Ribeiro 14
Neal 32
Wilson 16
Fisher 22
Smith 19
Jarnkrok 4
Arvidsson 10
Hodgson 12
Gaustad 5
Nystrom 6
Bourque 4
Watson 2
Fiala 11
Moses 14
189 total
weber 12
Josi 14
eckholm 7
ellis 9
Jones 9
Jackman 2
total 53
team total 242 Probably a little high
FF has a soph struggle at some point
Wilson takes a step back
Smith without Cullen who carried the turd polish last season
Neal steps up
Riberio pots 14 and leads the team with 68 points
Both Fiala and Moses are in the lineup before Christmas
Team finishes with 97 points 8 short of the playoffs.
lol. I had a guy once who prepared our budget on the same basis - he best guessed the final result, went backwards from there and ended up with projections that allocated $17/m for office supplies to be shared among 32 people. He gave me a dazed look when I asked which paper clip he'd like to use for the quarter.
If Hodgson doesn't return to offensive form, I can't imagine Poile/Lavi let him languish - and hold back the 3rd - for long. If the 3rd looks to be repeating last season, I'd bet on a shuffle. Either way, maybe shoot for 253?
Pred303
Registered User
I know this, IF we score 240 goals or more and rinne and the defense stays relatively healthy we will have a goal differential of greater than +30, which would probably lead the league, and we will be challenging for the division/conference title.
I see Hodgson as equally a scorer and playmaker. Have you seen his half slap coming down the boards? I think the consistency of his goals-assists ratios demonstrates the same?
rookie year - 19g 22a in 83 games
shortened year - 15g 19a (pacing for 26g 32a)
sophomore year - 20g 24a in 72 games
hideous year - 6g 7a in far too many games
totals - 61g 73a
I've watched Roy play, and totally get the residue taste you're referring to, lol. I'm not so sure Roy and Hodgson have entirely dissimilar playing styles either, but in Hodgson's favor he is significantly younger and I *think* that he can improve his physical game, be more engaged, edgy, etc. Or more accurately, I think Hodgson can return to playing a more physical/engaged game.
You see, Hodgson was scouted as much for his above average two-way game as for his offensive talents. He had a totally diff game, a "whole" game I'd call it, with that good mix of cerebral/smarts and the ability to play his size. He wasn't a bruiser or power-forward of course, and he wasn't awesome fast either, but he wasn't soft and he wasn't so damn slow.
But then... as a prospect still he suffered a back injury during off-season training in 2009, which was misdiagnosed, further aggravated by months of improper rehab treatment, and then (after being prematurely cleared to play and called-up by the Canucks) re-injured when he took a bad head-on into the boards during a Canucks post-season game. So then he was back rehabbing that next off-season too. All-in, the kid lost over a year of development to misdiagnoses and mismanagement of that back injury.
Thing is, his playing style slowed up after that re-injury head into the boards. He lost speed, sure, but worse, he seemed to start "shying" from playing his size. Totally frustrating watching a kid who'd been scouted for an above average two-way game revert to waving his stickie at bad guys while on the back-check. His defensive positioning went fruity too and you'd go nuts wanting to leap thru the TV to kill the kid who just didn't seem capable of playing the body in his d-zone.
Anyway, that's my theory - the back injury left a mental shyness residue that the kid didn't have to tackle so long as he was the offensive production leader in Buffalo. But last season, while in the Buffalo doghouse and forced to play as a grinder winger, he seemed to start playing a whole game again. Again, he'd never been "soft", he's actually solid on his skates and protects the puck well, but particularly in the second half of last year he started to bounce guys off the puck, play bodies out of his goalie's crease, etc. It was swell to seek PK Subban bounced into the boards before Hodgson gave a perfect on-tape pass back into the slot. That's the 3rd line center he *should* be for the Preds, if he wants to keep himself in the NHL.
So... I'm biting nails hoping for him that he took last year's lessons and the off-season training to fully get over whatever has held him back from playing his whole game. I don't think the Preds are ever gonna see a heart-on-sleeve style of player in Hodgson, and bets that he'll frustrate fans often enough by not "showing" he cares with big hits, but if he finally starts playing his size and hasn't totally lost his offensive game (hard to imagine), then you won't be trying to drown the taste of Roy 2.0
- Aug 13, 2007
- 35,501
- 15,774
I still think Weber has a monster year. Fully healthy and playing with Josi on the 1st PP unit he could definitely top 20 goals, and if the FF/Neal/Ribs line is also the 1st PP unit I could see Weber and Josi both with a boatload of assists.
My fear is that Wilson and Smith, having secured their contracts, will both slide back a fair amount.
My fear is that Wilson and Smith, having secured their contracts, will both slide back a fair amount.
How is Lavi with tough-love and holding guys accountable? I'm just thinking that if the coach is the type willing to truly hold guys accountable, then with Jarnkrok, Arvidsson, and even Moses lingering ready for the chance to fill voids, Wilson and Smith aren't so likely to slack off? I mean, already with the middle 6 mixing 'n matching, you'd think Wilson and Smith have the message that they aren't traditional 2nd line locks?
Scoresberg
In Trotz We Trust?
That could happen, but Weber needs someone to sit in front of the net. He had Hornqvist earlier and he scored about 20 goals back then.
Pred303
Registered User
as an offense that was probably our biggest problem last year, both even strength and on the pp.. hornqvist played that role to perfection, as well as anyone in the league. weber benefitted greatly from the point because of it. the best we have at screening is probably fisher honestly. Smith and Wilson have the size and strength but tend to want the puck and get away from the net. Bourque actually scored double digit goals year before last playing in front, but is small and gets cleared out from in front too easily most of the time.
Forsberg 28
Ribeiro 14
Neal 32
Wilson 21
Fisher 16
Smith 21
Jarnkrok 7
Arvidsson 10
Hodgson 14
Gaustad 3
Nystrom 5
Bourque 2
Watson 2
Fiala 6
Moses 6
187 for the forwards
weber 20
Josi 18
eckholm 10
ellis 10
Jones 12
Jackman 2
62 for the defense
249 for the team, 3.04/game
Ribeiro 14
Neal 32
Wilson 21
Fisher 16
Smith 21
Jarnkrok 7
Arvidsson 10
Hodgson 14
Gaustad 3
Nystrom 5
Bourque 2
Watson 2
Fiala 6
Moses 6
187 for the forwards
weber 20
Josi 18
eckholm 10
ellis 10
Jones 12
Jackman 2
62 for the defense
249 for the team, 3.04/game
jwhouk
Former Cheesehead, Always a Preds Fan
Lessee, where'd I put that... oh, here it is.
- Neal - 26
- Smith - 21
- Fisher - 19
- Weber - 18
- Ribeiro - 17
- Wilson - 16
- Hodgson - 14
- Forsberg - 13
- Josi - 13
- Nystrom - 10
- Bourque - 8
- Ellis - 7
- Jones - 6
- Gaustad - 6
- Jarnkrok - 4
- Ekholm - 4
- Jackman - 3
- The Field - 1
Pred303
Registered User
i assume you realize this is only 206 goals scored. if we score 206 goals we will finish 11th in the west.
Pred303
Registered User
it won't take 105 points to make the playoffs byrd. we finished with only 104 last year. maybe 97-98 will be right on the fringe.
- Aug 13, 2007
- 35,501
- 15,774
Roman Yoshi
#164303
I think 242 is a bit optimistic. In reality, we are probably closer to 230. Too many unknowns on that third line. If Hodgson regains his 20/20 potential or if we have Mr. Staal join us, we could probably break 240.
Here is my breakdown
Forsberg 25
Ribeiro 15
Neal 25
Wilson 20
Fisher 15
Smith 24
Jarnkrok 6
Arvidsson 14
Hodgson 17
Gaustad 3
Nystrom 3
Bourque 6
Watson 2
Call ups 9
Weber 15
Josi 12
Jones 8
Ellis 8
Ekholm 6
Jackman 2
Total 235
Here is my breakdown
Forsberg 25
Ribeiro 15
Neal 25
Wilson 20
Fisher 15
Smith 24
Jarnkrok 6
Arvidsson 14
Hodgson 17
Gaustad 3
Nystrom 3
Bourque 6
Watson 2
Call ups 9
Weber 15
Josi 12
Jones 8
Ellis 8
Ekholm 6
Jackman 2
Total 235
I get what you are saying about the third line. But how can it be worse than last year's third line? Could it be as bad as last year and see regressions elsewhere to bring the Predators scoring down a bit? Sure. That third line was just brutal last year. lol
Pred303
Registered User
lol, it damn sure was brutal. I don't think anyone in the NHL, outside of the fans right here on this board, really realized we got fewer goals scored from our third line than any team in the league.
Roman Yoshi
#164303
Believe me, I don't disagree, but our third line would really have to pick it up from last year for us to get to 240 something. I am just not THAT confident that is going to happen but it certainly could.
Never done this before, but here goes......
Forsberg 26
Smith 22
Neal 22
Fisher 20
Wilson 18
Ribeiro 12
Jarnkrok 8
Arvidsson 8
Hodgson 8
Nystrom 6
Bourque 5
Gaustad 4
Watson 2
Fiala 2
Moses 1
164 for the forwards
Weber 20
Josi 16
Ellis 9
Ekholm 7
Jones 6
Jackman 3
61 for the defense
Rinne 1 (EN Goal)
226 for the team
Forsberg 26
Smith 22
Neal 22
Fisher 20
Wilson 18
Ribeiro 12
Jarnkrok 8
Arvidsson 8
Hodgson 8
Nystrom 6
Bourque 5
Gaustad 4
Watson 2
Fiala 2
Moses 1
164 for the forwards
Weber 20
Josi 16
Ellis 9
Ekholm 7
Jones 6
Jackman 3
61 for the defense
Rinne 1 (EN Goal)
226 for the team
