Confirmed with Link: GM Dubas -- Part 2: What will he do next!?

[Leafsman]

I LAUGH at the people who thought and argued that bozo and jvr had positive impact on the team LOL

JVR was amazing on 10% of the ice around the net and near useless on the other 90% of it.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Perhaps. I am not sure exactly what you mean, so I will go at from two different ways.

When they track attempts at getting the puck out of your own zone, when you get possession one of three things can happen:
1) Failure - so that is no exit (for instance the puck gets turned over) or icing the puck.
2) Exit without possession - dump it out and lose possession (the other team is likely to regain entry into your zone)
3) Exit with possession - pass, carry, dump and recover.

Exit with possession is extremely important, as you not only get out of your own zone (reducing offensive chances against you) but you are also very likely to enter the other team's zone with possession and start creating offensive chances. The Leafs were not good at exits with possession last year (and for many years) and they get trapped in their own zone.

So what the numbers in first post reference is the Leafs forwards and their ability to exit with possession. All of the league's players are compared for percentage possession exit (as contrasted to failed exits and exits without possession) and then put into percentile. So for instance Tavares at 96th percentile means that only 4% of the players in the league are better at exiting with possession (When Tavares gets the puck he either carries it out, passes it out to another player or dumps it out in a controlled enough manner that the Leafs recover the puck). Komarov was in the 18th percentile, meaning that 82% of the players in the league are better at exiting with possession. He is far more likely to either to ice the puck, fail to get the puck out of the zone, or do so with an uncontrolled dump in which the Leafs fail to recover the puck. (Polak was not included as I only included forwards, but he was in the 3rd percentile for possession exits - which is beyond bad)

Great post, just awesome! )

 

[Polaris1010]

Perhaps. I am not sure exactly what you mean, so I will go at from two different ways.

When they track attempts at getting the puck out of your own zone, when you get possession one of three things can happen:
1) Failure - so that is no exit (for instance the puck gets turned over) or icing the puck.
2) Exit without possession - dump it out and lose possession (the other team is likely to regain entry into your zone)
3) Exit with possession - pass, carry, dump and recover.

Exit with possession is extremely important, as you not only get out of your own zone (reducing offensive chances against you) but you are also very likely to enter the other team's zone with possession and start creating offensive chances. The Leafs were not good at exits with possession last year (and for many years) and they get trapped in their own zone.

So what the numbers in first post reference is the Leafs forwards and their ability to exit with possession. All of the league's players are compared for percentage possession exit (as contrasted to failed exits and exits without possession) and then put into percentile. So for instance Tavares at 96th percentile means that only 4% of the players in the league are better at exiting with possession (When Tavares gets the puck he either carries it out, passes it out to another player or dumps it out in a controlled enough manner that the Leafs recover the puck). Komarov was in the 18th percentile, meaning that 82% of the players in the league are better at exiting with possession. He is far more likely to either to ice the puck, fail to get the puck out of the zone, or do so with an uncontrolled dump in which the Leafs fail to recover the puck. (Polak was not included as I only included forwards, but he was in the 3rd percentile for possession exits - which is beyond bad)

That is a good explanation.

On the flip side, that is why these advanced stats, people won't believe them.

Ever watch a playoff game or a tight regular season game, where they concentrate on the other team's top scorer? What does Kadri do? Once someone like Tarves for instance, gets the puck, everyone on the other team starts backing off. Well, if Tarves has good zone exits, well this kind of obvious. The reason is that he is so good, you back off once he gains possession.

The weakness of Bozak, was besides being soft, he was never a good puck carrier. That's why he always passed it to Phil.

Same for JVR. In his younger days, he could beat the defenseman wide. He could carry the puck out. Later after losing 2 or 3 steps, he never did that anymore.

As for everyone else, it's a case of whata you expect.

 

[LeafShark]

Wow, we have 3 #1 Cs on this team. Definately a top 4 team going into next season with the likes of Tampa Bay, Nashville, and Winnipeg. Kadri, Nylander, Rielly, Tavares, Matthews, and Marner are all untouchable and Gardiner should be signed if no equal quality rhd can be obtained. This team IS a contender this year, and WAS a contender last year. Leafs lost to Boston due to Kadri being suspended 3 games and due to being on the PK so much. I predict 110+ points. I don't think there's a reasonable trade that can make the team better except for possibly trading Gardiner.

 

[Peiskos]

Dubas should always be open to trades that will improve the team, for now though he shouldn't force anything and he should be comfortable going into this season with our current roster. Perhaps he can swing a deal for a rental defender at the deadline for what is hopefully a long playoff run.

Patience is key though, if the price isn't right we're most likely going to have to wait until guys like Liljegren and Sandin can come up to join Rielly and Gards, and hope Dermott continues to improve too. Internal improvement on the backend is the safest and smartest way to go.

 

[stickty111]

 

[93LEAFS]

The thing I heard about just post-draft fell through, but I'm hearing Caniero will get an Am-scouting job soon. No idea when it will be announced.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Leafs hire Dr. Meg Popovic as Director of Athlete Wellbeing & Performance and the promotion of Mike Dixon to Director of Minor League Operations.

 

[crump]

"Chris has worked his bag off, helped build those Soo Greyhound teams"

classy

 

[IBeL34f]

"Chris has worked his bag off, helped build those Soo Greyhound teams"

classy

I liked that, too.

 

[Duke Silver]

Sign undrafted forward Linus Nyman, please.

 

[Eb]

Sign undrafted forward Linus Nyman, please.

Details

 

[Duke Silver]

Details

Nyman has gone undrafted two years in a row. Last summer he was invited to Leafs development camp. Many in the analytics community consider him an overager worth taking a chance on as a late bloomer. Some scouts wouldn't have blinked if he went 2nd or 3rd round, but for whatever reason he was skipped over.

He's played the last two years for Kingston in the OHL, putting up 50P in 68GP in 2016-17 and 85P in 67GP in 2017-18, for a 1.00 ppg. This year he's playing in the Finnish Liiga for Lukko, where he's started the preseason off quickly with 4P in 3GP, including this goal:



Feels like a Dubas kind of move, especially considering he was already on KD's radar. Wouldn't surprise me if Dubas reached out to sign Linus to an ECHL deal with the Growlers, but Nyman thought the Liiga route may be better for his development.

 

[stickty111]

#Isles President and GM Lou Lamoriello on
@SiriusXMNHL
on analytics: “You have to be very careful with it. It can get in the way.”

Its become apparent Lou going was great for us.

 

[Morbo]

#Isles President and GM Lou Lamoriello on
@SiriusXMNHL
on analytics: “You have to be very careful with it. It can get in the way.”

Its become apparent Lou going was great for us.

It can get in the way of trading for Matt Martin and signing Leo Komarov to longterm deals, yeah.

 

[FlareKnight]

#Isles President and GM Lou Lamoriello on
@SiriusXMNHL
on analytics: “You have to be very careful with it. It can get in the way.”

Its become apparent Lou going was great for us.

Listening to the interview, it wasn't that bad. No doubt he's not a massive fan of analytics, but seems ok with using it as a supportive tool. And I don't think anyone would disagree with the context of that quote being that you shouldn't use stats 100% alone to make a decision. But that being said you can tell that he doesn't mind trusting his gut.

 

[Menzinger]

Lou was really good at some things: ie bringing stability to an organization, gmdecent negotiator. Problem is a bit too old school in other ways - those recent Islanders moves look absolutely ugly.

Safe to safe I’m happy that Shanny opted to go the direction he chose thisnoffseason.

 

[PromisedLand]

#Isles President and GM Lou Lamoriello on
@SiriusXMNHL
on analytics: “You have to be very careful with it. It can get in the way.”

Its become apparent Lou going was great for us.

He 40% right 60% wrong based on my advanced stats

 

[PromisedLand]

Lou was really good at some things: ie bringing stability to an organization, gmdecent negotiator. Problem is a bit too old school in other ways - those recent Islanders moves look absolutely ugly.

Safentk safe I’m happy that Shanny opted to go the direction he chose thisnoffseason.

Babcock isn’t too big on analytics either. He is not against them but doesn’t view them as alpha and omega when it comes to hockey like some folks here

 

[hullsy47]

Babcock isn’t too big on analytics either. He is not against them but doesn’t view them as alpha and omega when it comes to hockey like some folks here

analytics don't tell all the story ,homesickness ,nagging injuries ,personal tragedies and breakups etc .
they can all effect play .
analytics are good for long term evaluating and help making a safe bet that the player u are looking wil become an asset .

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

analytics don't tell all the story ,homesickness ,nagging injuries ,personal tragedies and breakups etc .
they can all effect play .
analytics are good for long term evaluating and help making a safe bet that the player u are looking wil become an asset .

You've never heard of tragedies/60 ?

To be fair, "watching the game" doesn't tell that story either.

 

[TDotMassive]

Wow, we have 3 #1 Cs on this team. Definately a top 4 team going into next season with the likes of Tampa Bay, Nashville, and Winnipeg. Kadri, Nylander, Rielly, Tavares, Matthews, and Marner are all untouchable and Gardiner should be signed if no equal quality rhd can be obtained. This team IS a contender this year, and WAS a contender last year. Leafs lost to Boston due to Kadri being suspended 3 games and due to being on the PK so much. I predict 110+ points. I don't think there's a reasonable trade that can make the team better except for possibly trading Gardiner.

Not sure how you can leave the two teams that won the past 3 cups out of that top 4 list...

 

[TDotMassive]

analytics don't tell all the story ,homesickness ,nagging injuries ,personal tragedies and breakups etc .
they can all effect play .
analytics are good for long term evaluating and help making a safe bet that the player u are looking wil become an asset .

I think there is an advanced stat for that... Wins Above Homesick or WAH. They only track it for whining babies though...

 

[LeafFever]

I think we win the President's trophy.
Most oddsmakers have us tied with Tampa as the cup favourite.

 

[Fogelhund]

Sign undrafted forward Linus Nyman, please.

We effectively have two contract spots at this point. One might open up when the goalie situation, and waivers sort itself out. I'm not sure he can sign at this point, unless his two year contract with Lukko has an out clause. Perhaps best to keep in touch with him, and see how he develops over the next two years?