Prospect Info: General Prospect Discussion Thread 2019-20 - Part II

[Goose312]

For those keeping score at home, the Wild is in the top 16 on Wheeler's prospect rankings after he released the Devils at 17 today.

Probably wants the Wild right at 16, exact middle of the league, for the lols.

 

[Bazeek]

One of Wheeler's comments on the parent article, responding to a question about how many tiers there are in these rankings:

I would say the difference between 20-31 is small, as is the difference between 10-19. Likewise for 5-9.

I think there’s a clearcut top three or four teams normally, and then groups of 5-10 that are basically interchangeable.

So worrying about exactly where we are from 10-19 is probably mostly moot.

At this point I'm more interested in seeing how he's tiered our pool, because past Kaprizov/Boldy it isn't all that clear to me right now. He does tiers for every team but they seem to be relative to the pool itself and don't to have any absolute meaning across teams.

If I were to break the top 20 or so into 4 tiers based primarily on likelihood to be NHLers and secondarily on upside it'd be something like...

T1: Kaprizov, Boldy
T2: Sturm, Khovanov, Menell
T3: Kahkonen, Belpedio, Beckman, Hentges, Firstov, Shaw, Boudrias,
T4: F Johansson, McBain, Warren, Dewar, Sokolov, Robson, Jones, Lindberg

With guys like Giroux, Swaney, Duhaime, etc. being real long shots at this point.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re a lot higher than we expect simply because having one of the top prospects in the world can really drive a prospect pool. Wheeler’s always been very high on Kaprizov, and adding in the depth that we now have has certainly helped. I predicted earlier that we probably land around 10, and that would be my guess still. We’re one of the only teams that didn’t graduate any players and on top of that, lots of our prospects have raised their stock.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Under Wheeler's criteria, Kaprizov stops being a prospect in April but for the next couple of months, he's at the head of the group. Sturm and Belpedio won't qualify either. Even without them, there's some decent talent. I would have it lower because it's almost all forwards and if Brennan Menell and Filip Johansson are the best d prospects in the pipeline, it's way too thin for sustained success.

 

[Wabit]

Under Wheeler's criteria, Kaprizov stops being a prospect in April but for the next couple of months, he's at the head of the group. Sturm and Belpedio won't qualify either. Even without them, there's some decent talent. I would have it lower because it's almost all forwards and if Brennan Menell and Filip Johansson are the best d prospects in the pipeline, it's way too thin for sustained success.

I kind of disagree with the d-prospect point considering how much term/ability MN has on their d-corps currently. Yes a bluechip d-man would be great, but the d-corps is easier to maintain than FWDs simply due to only needing 6 every night. They have 8 d-men on the roster now. In the recent past Reilly and Olofsson couldn't get a chance to break into the NHL because they were blocked. The bottom pair can be filled by retreads in FA if needed rather easily also.

 

[P10p]

I kind of disagree with the d-prospect point considering how much term/ability MN has on their d-corps currently. Yes a bluechip d-man would be great, but the d-corps is easier to maintain than FWDs simply due to only needing 6 every night. They have 8 d-men on the roster now. In the recent past Reilly and Olofsson couldn't get a chance to break into the NHL because they were blocked. The bottom pair can be filled by retreads in FA if needed rather easily also.

Thats not factored in prospect rankings.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

I kind of disagree with the d-prospect point considering how much term/ability MN has on their d-corps currently. Yes a bluechip d-man would be great, but the d-corps is easier to maintain than FWDs simply due to only needing 6 every night. They have 8 d-men on the roster now. In the recent past Reilly and Olofsson couldn't get a chance to break into the NHL because they were blocked. The bottom pair can be filled by retreads in FA if needed rather easily also.

I don't think that's a consideration really as far as the ranking goes. But if Guerin were to trade Brodin this group looks very weak to me. He's a bit of a luxury item. Suter is 35 next season, Spurgeon 30 and there's a bit of decline in both. A Soucy-Dumba pairing might work in theory, but Soucy is no Brodin. And I would posit that Reilly and Olofsson weren't blocked so much by an excess of talent but by their own deficiencies.

 

[Al Lagoon]

Center is followed closely by defense as needs in the system.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I definitely wouldn't hate it if we went LD in the later part of the 1st round (if we attain another pick) or the 2nd round.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I wouldn't mind Billy tanking and trading up to get 2 of Rossi, Lundell, and Perfetti. That is very doable and would be a major step in setting the Wild on the right course.

Add two of those guys to Kaprizov, Khovanov, Boldy, Beckman, etc.

 

[AKL]

I wouldn't mind Billy tanking and trading up to get 2 of Rossi, Lundell, and Perfetti. That is very doable and would be a major step in setting the Wild on the right course.

Add two of those guys to Kaprizov, Khovanov, Boldy, Beckman, etc.

I hope you’re not including Perfetti because you think he’s a center.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I wouldn't mind Billy tanking and trading up to get 2 of Rossi, Lundell, and Perfetti. That is very doable and would be a major step in setting the Wild on the right course.

Can’t see a team trading away a pick in the top 10 with how stacked the draft is. Heck, if this team plays themselves so to picking 12th like usual, we might have a add a ton to the 1st we already have to get one of those guys

 

[chchelseII]

Anas, Mayhew and Menell all putting up multiple points in the AHL all star game.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

MN wild stay alive in top prospects hunt as Buffalo bites the dust

 

[AKL]

MN wild stay alive in top prospects hunt as Buffalo bites the dust

Looking at Buffalo at, what is it now, 16? I have to feel like we’re top 10. The only guy they have left in their system is Cozens.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Looking at Buffalo at, what is it now, 16? I have to feel like we’re top 10. The only guy they have left in their system is Cozens.

Yeah. Lots of good players graduated. This time of year pools are always weaker, which is why it makes sense to do this in the summer

 

[nickschultzfan]

Can’t see a team trading away a pick in the top 10 with how stacked the draft is. Heck, if this team plays themselves so to picking 12th like usual, we might have a add a ton to the 1st we already have to get one of those guys

Wild will likely be in the 5-10 range. We could easily move some combination of Zucker, Brodin, and Staal in a series of trades get one or two more picks in the 6-15 range.

 

[AKL]

Wild will likely be in the 5-10 range. We could easily move some combination of Zucker, Brodin, and Staal in a series of trades get one or two more picks in the 6-15 range.

Yeah I don’t think we could. Certainly not easily. Certainly certainly not in the 6-10 range.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Yeah I don’t think we could. Certainly not easily. Certainly certainly not in the 6-10 range.

Have you looked at the teams that are likely sitting in the 6-10 range?

 

[AKL]

Have you looked at the teams that are likely sitting in the 6-10 range?

Have you looked at the players that are likely going to be picked in the 6-10 range?

It's not gonna happen man.

 

[Bazeek]

Top-1o picks that are actually top-1o picks (i.e. not a pick that was expected to be low but ended up much higher and without some kind of protection) are rarely traded. I'd have to go back and find the exact number, but it's less than one per year over the last decade. I can't remember a team ever getting more than 1 in a single year.

It's not impossible, but it'd take a very specific set of circumstances and more than a little luck to pull that off.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Have you looked at the teams that are likely sitting in the 6-10 range?

Nashville, who would never trade us a top 10 1st, 3 rebuilding teams, and San Jose, whose 1st belongs to Ottawa, another rebuilding team?

 

[Bazeek]

1 point for Khovanov tonight.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

1 point for Khovanov tonight.

He’s busting

 

[nickschultzfan]

Nashville, who would never trade us a top 10 1st, 3 rebuilding teams, and San Jose, whose 1st belongs to Ottawa, another rebuilding team?

Guys, it is a seller's market this year.

Nashville just fired their coach because they want to win now and trade us Fiala just last year.

Rangers want to be a playoff team next year and need a #1 LHD and could use a replacement LW at a lower cost than Kreider on the open market.

Devils fired their GM because ownership thinks they should be a playoff team asap. They could use lots of Wild players.

Flyers could drop and Fletcher loves Brodin and Zucker and is fine with trading picks when ownership wants playoffs.

Canadiens, Sabres, and even Toronto if they fall have serious internal pressure to shore up defense.

Not to mention other teams who will get you back into mid to late first with 1 trade and then allow you to move up with a second trade.