Player Discussion Gaudreau's Next Contract

[Ace Rimmer]

Market dictates he's worth about $60 million over 6 years; might be able to shave off $500k, maybe a million, from the AAV if a couple extra years are tacked on.

I said this last summer, if they didn't have a handshake deal with him before July 1, they had to start shopping him on July 2.

Plan A is to sign him to an extension. He's the face of the franchise now. You gotta keep those guys.

Plan B must be to trade him if he's not extended by the trade deadline. The only way that shouldn't happen is if the Flames have somehow put it together under Sutter (not unrealistic in my deluded opinion) and are actual legit contenders and not a bubble playoff team.

Plan C is Treliving fumbles the ball and is fired July 2, 2022 shortly after Gaudreau signs somewhere else.

 

[Darth Vladar]

I like how you spend the whole first paragraph comparing Mangiapane to Zacha, but then say we can't compare Sharangovich to anybody because he hasn't played a "full season". It's almost unbelievable how blind you are to your own bias.

None of these guys have played a full season (though Zacha has played the most). Sharangovich, the youngest of the 3, has the best career points per game and is off to the best start. Full stop.

I'm done engaging you on this nonsense.

First of all, nobody asked you to engage in the first place. Stop overstating your importance to an internet hockey forum.

Second of all, I was rebutting your point about Sharangovich having more goals and points than Mangi at the same age, when their respective development and career trajectories could not be any more dissimilar. Mangi was developed, and Sharangovich was essentially thrust into a top-six role. the Devils are so thin up front Mr. 14-goal man is literally the #1RW on their depth chart.

The original point was whether Johnny would be worth getting back these two in a trade, to which you replied that it would be like trading two Mangiapanes for Johnny. Zacha has achieved the same or less than Mangi, despite clearly being given a bigger role on his team, and we simply haven't seen enough of Sharangovich to know whether or not he is simply a flash in the pan. The one thing Sharangovich has going for him is that he is under contract for a very reasonable $2M AAV for two more seasons, while Mangi is likely going to be getting a significant raise after he lights it up playing top line minutes this year.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Market dictates he's worth about $60 million over 6 years; might be able to shave off $500k, maybe a million, from the AAV if a couple extra years are tacked on.

How exactly do you figure that?

This has been a 0.85 pts/g player the past two seasons combined.

 

[Darth Vladar]

Market dictates he's worth about $60 million over 6 years; might be able to shave off $500k, maybe a million, from the AAV if a couple extra years are tacked on.

I said this last summer, if they didn't have a handshake deal with him before July 1, they had to start shopping him on July 2.

Plan A is to sign him to an extension. He's the face of the franchise now. You gotta keep those guys.

Plan B must be to trade him if he's not extended by the trade deadline. The only way that shouldn't happen is if the Flames have somehow put it together under Sutter (not unrealistic in my deluded opinion) and are actual legit contenders and not a bubble playoff team.

Plan C is Treliving fumbles the ball and is fired July 2, 2022 shortly after Gaudreau signs somewhere else.

Johnny would certainly get more in free agency than the Flames can/will/should offer, so it does ultimately come down to whether or not he wants to stay in Calgary, but also whether the Flames can even win with him. At the end of the day, sure he's popular, marketable, etc. so re-signing him makes a certain amount of sense in that respect, since it's the fans who buy tickets and he's who many of them pay to see, but it's also a matter of what's best for the team long-term. I've seen a lot of people comment that there wouldn't be any takers for an unsigned Johnny, but I think he could command a big enough haul to warrant not having it hang overhead all season just to have him either walk for nothing or cripple the team budget so that they can't continue building a team around him. If the Flames get off to a hot start, and Johnny lights it up, you pretty much have to sign him for whatever he's asking, but if the Flames end up sucking bad 30-35 games in, that is going to become the elephant in the locker room pretty quick.

One think I think we all can agree on is that this situation is going to make or break Tre's future as Flames GM. We can speculate all we want about what Johnny is worth, where he could end up, etc. but really all we can do is wait and see what version of Johnny and the Flames we get this year.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

How exactly do you figure that?

This has been a 0.85 pts/g player the past two seasons combined.

The fact that he's been that consistent, without consistency from his linemates.

 

[TheHudlinator]

The fact that he's been that consistent, without consistency from his linemates.

And if he is in free agency he might be the most sought after player.

 

[lightstorm]

Honestly surprised that people are willing to go over $9mil AAV for a guy who each year disappears into the night right after the All star game.

 

[Darth Vladar]

Not official yet, but the rumour is 6 years, 7.75 for Hughes and 3 years, 7.7 for Petey.

REPORT: Canucks re-sign Pettersson and Hughes to sub-$8 million contracts - Vancouver Is Awesome

 

[GumbyCan2]

8.5 mil per for 7 years, on Philly or NJD!

Not official yet, but the rumour is 6 years, 7.75 for Hughes and 3 years, 7.7 for Petey.

REPORT: Canucks re-sign Pettersson and Hughes to sub-$8 million contracts - Vancouver Is Awesome

For that $, maybe we could sucker Benning into Monahan and Johnny G for Petey P and Nils Hoglander? NH-EP-EL could be a Sweed trio!

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Honestly surprised that people are willing to go over $9mil AAV for a guy who each year disappears into the night right after the All star game.

Even if true - still won’t stop him from getting that contract.

 

[Body Checker]

This situation is trending toward another major Treliving blunder

 

[Some Other Flame]

The more money Gaudreau gets, the less money for future Badbranson's, Zadorov's, Neal's, and Brouwer's.

Give him whatever he wants.

 

[Darth Vladar]

The more money Gaudreau gets, the less money for future Gudbranson's, Zadorov's, Neal's, and Brouwer's.

Give him whatever he wants.

The more money Gaudreau gets, the more likely we see players getting paid $10M+ for a point-per-game, which is fkn ridiculous.

 

[Some Other Flame]

The more money Gaudreau gets, the more likely we see players getting paid $10M+ for a point-per-game, which is fkn ridiculous.

Nah

 

[HighLifeMan]

The more money Gaudreau gets, the more likely we see players getting paid $10M+ for a point-per-game, which is fkn ridiculous.

Yep.

If you back up the truck for Gaudreau then you are basically stuck committing the same if not more to Tkachuk - as he has near identical point a game averages over the past two seasons and the team would be buying more "prime" years.

This organization wouldn't win a damn thing (and already can't) with Gaudreau and Tkachuk taking upwards of 20-22M in cap space. It's an asinine proposal.

If Gaudreau had shown capable of producing 1.05-1.15 pts/g consistently then sure, asking for 9-10M would be more than reasonable (on a 5/6 year deal), but he hasn't. He has shown that ability just twice in his 7 year NHL career during what was very likely his peak. You can't blame his linemates either. If you are a 10M dollar player you need to be able to consistently produce no matter the circumstances. Mark Stone managed to be over a point a game in Ottawa two years running on a complete dumpster fire roster, and no one thinks he's a game changer offensively.

I don't even think you can make a sound argument that Gaudreau is worth 10M TODAY.. let alone when he will be 36 years old. I love the guy, but he is a flawed hockey player who only contributes in one area of the game and hasn't shown the ability to be successful in the playoffs.

Treliving should have had this entire situation wrapped up by now. Either Gaudreau was willing to commit long term at a fair number or he wasn't.. and if he wasn't then he should have been dealt this summer.

 

[Darth Vladar]

Yep.

If you back up the truck for Gaudreau then you are basically stuck committing the same if not more to Tkachuk - as he has near identical point a game averages over the past two seasons and the team would be buying more "prime" years.

This organization wouldn't win a damn thing (and already can't) with Gaudreau and Tkachuk taking upwards of 20-22M in cap space. It's an asinine proposal.

If Gaudreau had shown capable of producing 1.05-1.15 pts/g consistently then sure, asking for 9-10M would be more than reasonable (on a 5/6 year deal), but he hasn't. He has shown that ability just twice in his 7 year NHL career during what was very likely his peak. You can't blame his linemates either. If you are a 10M dollar player you need to be able to consistently produce no matter the circumstances. Mark Stone managed to be over a point a game in Ottawa two years running on a complete dumpster fire roster, and no one thinks he's a game changer offensively.

I don't even think you can make a sound argument that Gaudreau is worth 10M TODAY.. let alone when he will be 36 years old. I love the guy, but he is a flawed hockey player who only contributes in one area of the game and hasn't shown the ability to be successful in the playoffs.

Treliving should have had this entire situation wrapped up by now. Either Gaudreau was willing to commit long term at a fair number or he wasn't.. and if he wasn't then he should have been dealt this summer.

Well said. Johnny did get married this summer, maybe they tried to get something done earlier, couldn't and just decided to put it off for a while. Regardless, Tre can't throw $9M at Johnny to not leave. It'd probably be worth more to move him 20-25 games in if The Flames are pooping the bed. It wouldn't be a rental for every team. I think we could still get a nice package in return for an unsigned Johnny, NJ has the cap to sign him to whatever he wants, and would. Best case scenario is that Johnny and the Flames come out firing on all cylinders, and Johnny takes a six-year team friendly contract to keep building on what they have, and give Tre more options. Zacha and Sharangovich would put us over tho imo but judging from Devs fans' reactions to my proposal, we'd probably have to add a pick lmao

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yep.

If you back up the truck for Gaudreau then you are basically stuck committing the same if not more to Tkachuk - as he has near identical point a game averages over the past two seasons and the team would be buying more "prime" years.

This organization wouldn't win a damn thing (and already can't) with Gaudreau and Tkachuk taking upwards of 20-22M in cap space. It's an asinine proposal.

If Gaudreau had shown capable of producing 1.05-1.15 pts/g consistently then sure, asking for 9-10M would be more than reasonable (on a 5/6 year deal), but he hasn't. He has shown that ability just twice in his 7 year NHL career during what was very likely his peak. You can't blame his linemates either. If you are a 10M dollar player you need to be able to consistently produce no matter the circumstances. Mark Stone managed to be over a point a game in Ottawa two years running on a complete dumpster fire roster, and no one thinks he's a game changer offensively.

I don't even think you can make a sound argument that Gaudreau is worth 10M TODAY.. let alone when he will be 36 years old. I love the guy, but he is a flawed hockey player who only contributes in one area of the game and hasn't shown the ability to be successful in the playoffs.

Treliving should have had this entire situation wrapped up by now. Either Gaudreau was willing to commit long term at a fair number or he wasn't.. and if he wasn't then he should have been dealt this summer.

I mean Tkachuk is already going to get at least $9M on his next contract because of his qualifying offer, or become a UFA. Giving Tkachuk that contract essentially set the price for a top line LW in Calgary. And considering that Gaudreau is the better player (and playoff performer), I wouldn't expect him to accept a penny less than $9M.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The more money Gaudreau gets, the more likely we see players getting paid $10M+ for a point-per-game, which is fkn ridiculous.

I feel like you’re one of those people that complains about teachers getting 65 grand after 6 years of university

 

[HighLifeMan]

I mean Tkachuk is already going to get at least $9M on his next contract because of his qualifying offer, or become a UFA. Giving Tkachuk that contract essentially set the price for a top line LW in Calgary. And considering that Gaudreau is the better player (and playoff performer), I wouldn't expect him to accept a penny less than $9M.

We will have to see. A qualifying offer means nothing on a long term extension, so it depends what Tkachuk's intentions are. Either way - Treliving has put himself in an absolutely horrible spot. At the end of the day I could live with a 4 x 9M contract for Johhny - but if he wants more term he needs to come down significantly.

 

[Darth Vladar]

I feel like you’re one of those people that complains about teachers getting 65 grand after 6 years of university

I'm just the type of person that like to see people get paid what they're worth for what they do, especially when it's tens of millions of dollars.

 

[ESH]

The fact that he's been that consistent, without consistency from his linemates.

Wait, you think Gaudreau is consistent?

 

[slappipappi]

I'm just the type of person that like to see people get paid what they're worth for what they do, especially when it's tens of millions of dollars.

A players FMV is determined by the market. Now, a player doesn't have to agree to a fair valuation based on his perceived FMV. Johnny could conceivable have a number of what it would take to get him to commit to staying in Calgary, and it could be quite a bit more than his FMV as determined by he market.

 

[Darth Vladar]

A players FMV is determined by the market. Now, a player doesn't have to agree to a fair valuation based on his perceived FMV. Johnny could conceivable have a number of what it would take to get him to commit to staying in Calgary, and it could be quite a bit more than his FMV as determined by he market.

I can't tell if you misunderstood my point accidentally or purposefully. The market is built on the pretense that anybody on Earth "deserves" $10M per year to put a piece of rubber in a net and win games regardless of whether or not they even do, and that this constitutes "entertainment". If the point of the game is to win, history has shown that spending more money on players has little bearing on whether teams actually do. The Flames missed the playoffs the year before Johnny signed his current contract, and in the five years since, have missed the playoffs two other times, and lost in the first round the three times they made it. That's almost $34M for Johnny in those years, probably a lot more than any one individual was paid to develop vaccines. I have no doubt he'll play well this year, but I question whether it's because he actually wants to win in Calgary (where if that was the case, wouldn't he take less money?), or is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $9M per year for a period where his productivity will likely have already started to decline, basically getting paid more money for accomplishing less than he did during his peak. Unless of course the Flames do well this year, and he is a significant factor in their success.

The discrepancy is with the words "fair",
"market" and "value". I know what you mean by them, but they are not absolute terms, even economically speaking.

 

[tmurfin]

He’s going to get 9m. Minimum. The discount days are coming to an end. The real question is if the Flames will be the ones to give it to him.

 

[TheHudlinator]

He’s going to get 9m. Minimum. The discount days are coming to an end. The real question is if the Flames will be the ones to give it to him.

He will be the top free agent outside Zib if he makes it to UFA I could see him getting 10 from a desperate team.