Post-Game Talk: GAME 70 - Linus slams the door on the Sens - BRUINS 2 Ottawa 1

[Bruinaura]

Our old dudes are awesome

 

[NDiesel]

This is the sample we have and its not cherry picked. I resent that. Is it a small sample? sure, but I didn't omit or change any data to make my point, I just pointed out the numbers as they were.

Ive posted ad nauseum on this board the data of what happened when he was out last time. Fewer chances against, fewer high danger chances again, on ice sv% plummeted etc. I've posted the year long numbers that show Forbort gets the worst underlying numbers of any regular PK player.

I'm just pushing back on the fundamentally wrong narrative. Living on my truth island.

So if ignoring the other 13 games we didn't have Forbort isnt considered omitting data or cherry picking then what is it exactly?

If you were looking at the stats from when we got Orlov to now at least I would understand the comment "this is the sample we have" but instead you weirdly choose Jan 1st for Forborts sample to compare him.

Finally we don't only have a sample of 3 games...you just decided to omit the stretch the team was operating at 76.1% early in the season and omit the two games they had (3 for 3 on Mar 2) (1 for 2 on Mar 11) when he sat as part of the rotation.

 

[burstnbloom]

Here we go again
Will you guys give it up. The PK is good when Forbort is in there and it keeps Lindholm off the ice in these situation.

The PK is actually WORSE when he's on the ice and i will continue to point this out. K thx

 

[Oates2Neely]

I dread when I can no longer drive.

I am 70 and just bought a new car...My last car

You may have another car purchase in your future. I recall years ago my grandfather being pissed he had to stop driving at age 92! I hope I have his genes!

 

[burstnbloom]

So if ignoring the other 16 games we didn't have Forbort (where PK% was worse than with him) isnt considered omitting data or cherry picking then what is it exactly?

We don't only have a sample of 3 games...you just decided to omit the stretch the team was operating at 76.1% early in the season and omit the two games they had (3 for 3 on Mar 2) (1 for 2 on Mar 11) when he sat as part of the rotation.

No because PK% alone is rudimentary and shows zero causation. I also didn't include any data pre Jan 1 because the last 3 months of information seems relevant to the conversation.

Also, I don't love using actual GF data bc it tells us very little about potential future performance but it's all this group really responds to so I tried to meet people where they are.

 

[BruinDust]

My wife told me that Dick Van Dyke is still driving at 97 and just got in to a minor fendy-bendy yesterday.
My dad is 84 and just stopped driving. Mom is 81 and still a good driver.

My grandfather drove until he was 88 almost 89. He had two minor fender benders in parking lots in the span of a week and they pulled his license otherwise he'd likely would of kept driving. It was heartbreaking to see him lose his freedom to come and go as he pleased which was something very important to him.

I will drive as long as possible. I actually love to drive. I just don't want to drive if I shouldn't be.

I am getting used to an automatic shift after driving a stick for 55 years. I never realized how much I down shifted to slow down and now have to use the brakes. I forget to put the car into "PARK" sometimes but haven't been slamming my left foot to the floor as much as I did at first.

It is very fancy compared to my 13-year-old Accord. I like some of it. The heated seats are nice (after coming out of the Garden ) on my old hips and back.

I don't like when it shuts down at a stop sign (and restarts when you hit the gas) Supposedly saves on gas but I don't really believe that and turned it off.

I drove a couple of my employer's fleet vehicles recently that had this and it drove me crazy. Couldn't stand it but wasn't allowed to deactivate. I don't believe it saves on gas either. I'll stick to my 13-year old Acura sedan until the car floor rots out or the frame is compromised because that VTEC engine will never die.

 

[Bruinaura]

I dread when I can no longer drive.

I am 70 and just bought a new car...My last car

I will probably be 70 before I can afford another car.

*thinks back to last night driving home in the rain and how my 15 year old car decided to leak water all over my left foot*

*sighhhhhhhh*

 

[Olden McGroin]

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Here we go again
Will you guys give it up.

Agreed.

If people like keeping their heads buried in the sand @burstnbloom shouldn't be trying to pull them out.

 

[Ladyfan]

I will probably be 70 before I can afford another car.

*thinks back to last night driving home in the rain and how my 15 year old car decided to leak water all over my left foot*

*sighhhhhhhh*

This car had better last because there is no room in the budget for another car.

 

[Gee Wally]

I will drive as long as possible. I actually love to drive. I just don't want to drive if I shouldn't be.

I am getting used to an automatic shift after driving a stick for 55 years. I never realized how much I down shifted to slow down and now have to use the brakes. I forget to put the car into "PARK" sometimes but haven't been slamming my left foot to the floor as much as I did at first.

It is very fancy compared to my 13-year-old Accord. I like some of it. The heated seats are nice (after coming out of the Garden ) on my old hips and back.

I don't like when it shuts down at a stop sign (and restarts when you hit the gas) Supposedly saves on gas but I don't really believe that and turned it off.

I REALLY like the Harman Kadan

Susan look at your dashboard. You may have a button with the letter ‘A’. That in many cars like mine is the auto stop overide . You have to press it each time you start the car but thats it. Your owners manual, if you have the feature will show you where its located.

Made my life easier.

[

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Here's a small sample size fun stat comparison:

Bruins Winning Percentage with Jakub Lauko in the lineup
.875
14-2-0 record

Bruins Winning Percentage without Jakub Lauko in the lineup
.741
40-9-5 record



*Bonus stat:
Bruins Record when Linus Ullmark starts and Jakub Lauko plays
8-0-0

 

[NDiesel]

No because PK% alone is rudimentary and shows zero causation. I also didn't include any data pre Jan 1 because the last 3 months of information seems relevant to the conversation.

Also, I don't love using actual GF data bc it tells us very little about potential future performance but it's all this group really responds to so I tried to meet people where they are.

There has to be some point where actual on ice results (like killing off a higher % of penalties with Player A) is more meaningful than the underlying metrics, no? We have 130 game sample of Forbort to go off of now, at what point do we just accept that the PK just gets the job done with him on it?

Either way we got a solid 54 games out of him where we limited hard PK minutes on guys like Lindholm, which I think will pay dividends deep in the playoffs, and he provides some nice PK depth come playoff time.

I'm sure we are both spinning our tires here so probably best to leave it there.

 

[NDiesel]

Agreed.

If people like keeping their heads buried in the sand @burstnbloom shouldn't be trying to pull them out.

Should probably just post the xG stats in post 1 one of the GDT and close it for discussion, seems there's no point in holding an opinion if it contradicts with what they say.

 

[Ladyfan]

Susan look at your dashboard. You may have a button with the letter ‘A’. That in many cars like mine is the auto stop overide . You have to press it each time you start the car but thats it. Your owners manual, if you have the feature will show you where its located.

Made my life easier.

[

I already found it and push it every time I start my car!

I looked it up the second day I had the Crosstrek.

Does anyone like this feature?

Thanks

 

[Bruinaura]

I already found it and push it every time I start my car!

I looked it up the second day I had the Crosstrek.

Does anyone like this feature?

Thanks

I had a rental car last year with that feature and despised it. No idea why they don't give you a way to permanent shut it off.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Montgomery used his timeout excellently. He likely sensed goals would be difficult to come by, saw the first unit was clicking, rested them, and kept them on the ice.

Lindholm is not only a smooth skater, his hockey IQ is off the charts. Raycroft even asked him about the wrister from the point not being the best option on a 5-on-3, but Lindholm didn't force a pass that wasn't there.

My one dissatisfaction is Montgomery's handling of Lauko. Did the one mistake in his own end get him benched? If you're going to dress these guys, play them, especially when trying to manage minutes for veterans.

I don't know the reasoning behind this, but it feels Cassidy-esque.

Yep, Lauko got benched. Had one shift at the start of the 3rd, made that mistake, and then was never seen again. His linemates had another 3-4 shifts, he got nothing. My sense is that Monty doesn't really like Lauko and as a result uses him sparingly and on a fairly short leash. Since he first came back from Providence he's played only 7 mins or less in 6 out of 9 games, which is generally a good 2-3 mins fewer than his linemates. Nosek plays PK so that has to be accounted for, but for the most part Hathaway and Greer don't but they still often get more time.

Monty seems to handle the vast majority of the players well and even-handed. Lauko appears to be an exception though and you're right, there's a tinge of Cassidy about it. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

 

[BourqueFromORRk4277]

I will drive as long as possible. I actually love to drive. I just don't want to drive if I shouldn't be.

I am getting used to an automatic shift after driving a stick for 55 years. I never realized how much I down shifted to slow down and now have to use the brakes. I forget to put the car into "PARK" sometimes but haven't been slamming my left foot to the floor as much as I did at first.

It is very fancy compared to my 13-year-old Accord. I like some of it. The heated seats are nice (after coming out of the Garden ) on my old hips and back.

I don't like when it shuts down at a stop sign (and restarts when you hit the gas) Supposedly saves on gas but I don't really believe that and turned it off.

I REALLY like the Harman Kadan

Nooooo! Don't give up the manual!! I've been driving stick for 27 years starting with my second car, and bought a new manual car 4 years ago with hopes it'll last me another 10-15 years. They are getting more scarce by the year, though.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Yep, Lauko got benched. Had one shift at the start of the 3rd, made that mistake, and then was never seen again. His linemates had another 3-4 shifts, he got nothing. My sense is that Monty doesn't really like Lauko and as a result uses him sparingly and on a fairly short leash. Since he first came back from Providence he's played only 7 mins or less in 6 out of 9 games, which is generally a good 2-3 mins fewer than his linemates. Nosek plays PK so that has to be accounted for, but for the most part Hathaway and Greer don't but they still often get more time.

Monty seems to handle the vast majority of the players well and even-handed. Lauko appears to be an exception though and you're right, there's a tinge of Cassidy about it. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

I also think the cap situation has a lot to do with it. If everyone is healthy, Lauko is 15 or 16F, depending on whether they’d put Wagner in a game 5 of the ECF over him. I think they would. So getting Hathaway and Bertuzzi extra shifts now is more important.

 

[burstnbloom]

Should probably just post the xG stats in post 1 one of the GDT and close it for discussion, seems there's no point in holding an opinion if it contradicts with what they say.

This is amazingly obtuse

 

[Glove Malfunction]

Speaking of the Selke, I doubt it will be changed to the Bergeron. The powers that be never changed the Norris to the Orr.

Yeah, but you can't spell Norris without Orr, so there's that.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Yep, Lauko got benched. Had one shift at the start of the 3rd, made that mistake, and then was never seen again. His linemates had another 3-4 shifts, he got nothing. My sense is that Monty doesn't really like Lauko and as a result uses him sparingly and on a fairly short leash. Since he first came back from Providence he's played only 7 mins or less in 6 out of 9 games, which is generally a good 2-3 mins fewer than his linemates. Nosek plays PK so that has to be accounted for, but for the most part Hathaway and Greer don't but they still often get more time.

Monty seems to handle the vast majority of the players well and even-handed. Lauko appears to be an exception though and you're right, there's a tinge of Cassidy about it. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

My guess is that his trade request might indicate the player's personality you're dealing with and the possibility it rubs Montgomery the wrong way.

I also think the cap situation has a lot to do with it. If everyone is healthy, Lauko is 15 or 16F, depending on whether they’d put Wagner in a game 5 of the ECF over him. I think they would. So getting Hathaway and Bertuzzi extra shifts now is more important.

Except he cut his TOI after poor plays.

 

[Glove Malfunction]

No because PK% alone is rudimentary and shows zero causation. I also didn't include any data pre Jan 1 because the last 3 months of information seems relevant to the conversation.

Also, I don't love using actual GF data bc it tells us very little about potential future performance but it's all this group really responds to so I tried to meet people where they are.

I'm not sure why results from the current season don't seem relevant. What do the same stats say when you use the entire season? It may not have been your intention, but it does seem like you didn't include the 2022 data because it didn't support (at least as strongly) the point you are clearly trying to make.

 

[Glove Malfunction]

Yep, Lauko got benched. Had one shift at the start of the 3rd, made that mistake, and then was never seen again. His linemates had another 3-4 shifts, he got nothing. My sense is that Monty doesn't really like Lauko and as a result uses him sparingly and on a fairly short leash. Since he first came back from Providence he's played only 7 mins or less in 6 out of 9 games, which is generally a good 2-3 mins fewer than his linemates. Nosek plays PK so that has to be accounted for, but for the most part Hathaway and Greer don't but they still often get more time.

Monty seems to handle the vast majority of the players well and even-handed. Lauko appears to be an exception though and you're right, there's a tinge of Cassidy about it. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

All we can really do is speculate, though Monty is so different from Cassidy that I struggle with assigning that sort of handling to Monty (maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.) Monty is almost obsessively positive about his players publicly that I doubt we'll find out any time soon what the real back story is. I can only hope that he's communicating with Lauko what he needs to fix, and not talking to him for weeks at a a time, as was Cassidy's MO.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Should probably just post the xG stats in post 1 one of the GDT and close it for discussion, seems there's no point in holding an opinion if it contradicts with what they say.

This doesn't make sense even if you're purposely trying to exaggerate to make what you think is a point.