GDT: Game 5: Kazakhstan Vs Slovakia | 9AM EST 3PM CET | SVK 3 - 1 KAZ

[greasysnapper]

What could have been for the Kazakhstan team if the Goose was there and not injured.

 

[c9gunner]

Alright, I was implying something completely else. A team's past performance is just a past performance. It may have no impact on a future game against a different opponent, let alone on a hypothetical game. Being sure how a hypothetical game would play out and trashing one team not worthy of the other based on one game is just trolling. Even more so when prior head to head matchups over over any period say otherwise.

Thank you. I really respect your point and, honestly, somewhat agree with it.

 

[Elvs]

How about you look at that German roster and tell me what do you see. That is a very significant change. It's just a question of time when will out of Denmark/Germany/Latvia/Belarus, 2 of those have a team good enough to challenge and eventually win against Slovaks. Hell, Kazakhs hung in there pretty equally despite this not being their best generation and missing their best player.

If Belarus actually didn't screw up and won the promotion this year, wouldn't you say Belarus', Germany's and Slovakia's rosters would be pretty equal next year? With Stutzle, Seider (possibly), Reichel, Peterka, Kolochyonok, Protas, etc.? Slovaks should stop living in denial. I thought coming few minutes short of relegation at men's level would be enough of a wake up call but evidently it's not.

You seem to judge nations a lot based on one or two age groups.

Germany has a strong team by their standards this year, but you're acting as they have a bunch of blue chip prospects who are all going to pan out. Yes, it's true that Germany had three 1st round picks since 2014. But also, they only had a total of 9 players drafted since 2011. In the same time span Denmark had 12 players picked. Latvia had 10. Belarus had 7. Slovakia had 22.

Okay, so Belarus finished ahead of the Czechs and Finns at the U18 level last year, but they also had a 13-22 goal differential. The Czechs went 17-14 and the Finns went 20-13. Belarus had a couple of players drafted last year. But how many others are likely to get drafted in the next 3-4 years? At one point they had Grabovski and the Kostitsyn brothers coming up. Case in point, one or two strong age groups doesn't make or break a nation.

With just one player drafted per year, Germany isn't going to continue developing early picks on a regular picks. Draisaitl is a beast no doubt. I think Seider and Stützle will be good NHL players, and that maybe Bokk also makes it. But why are you so convinced they will end up better than Marco Sturm, Jochen Hecht, Marcel Goc, Christian Ehrhoff and Dennis Seidenberg?

 

[Outofbodyinhungary]

I agree with @tobu , nations outside of the top 6 range in talent from year to year. Development is not one straight path, for example Erik cernak is much better than a plethora of defenseman drafted ahead of him, as is Jaros. You compare one weak year of Slovaks, so why was result last year the way it was? It is true germany has developed a better 00-02 class than Slovakia, so who is to say the 03-04 Slovaks aren’t better. Results show that yes they are. Let’s actually wait tho some years before we judge such young players

 

[Elvs]

Slovakia has problems with their program no doubt, but changes were made and Michal Handzus said it would take ten years for it to take effect. In the meantime, we see more Slovak kids move to Sweden and Finland when they are 15-16 years old, which should help stop the bleeding while they figure out their own program.

The 1999 group was solid. Now those guys are gone and Slovakia is leaning on a much weaker 2000 group, combined with some 2001 boys who were relegated at the U18 level last year. Thus, there should be no surprise if this team struggles. Cajkovic is the only player on this roster who has been drafted. Knazko will get drafted for sure this summer. Other than that, only Hlavaj (and maybe Okulinar), who were both passed on before, has a good chance of getting picked.

The 1997-1999 groups were decent, the 2000 and 2001 groups are weak. The 2002 and 2003 groups should still be weak but slightly better at least. And then comes the 2004-2005 groups which is looking much better. Hopefully that's the first sign of the program improving, and not just a couple of fluke years.

 

[hellwar9]

Slovakia has problems with their program no doubt, but changes were made and Michal Handzus said it would take ten years for it to take effect. In the meantime, we see more Slovak kids move to Sweden and Finland when they are 15-16 years old, which should help stop the bleeding while they figure out their own program.

The 1999 group was solid. Now those guys are gone and Slovakia is leaning on a much weaker 2000 group, combined with some 2001 boys who were relegated at the U18 level last year. Thus, there should be no surprise if this team struggles. Cajkovic is the only player on this roster who has been drafted. Knazko will get drafted for sure this summer. Other than that, only Hlavaj (and maybe Okulinar), who were both passed on before, has a good chance of getting picked.

The 1997-1999 groups were decent, the 2000 and 2001 groups are weak. The 2002 and 2003 groups should still be weak but slightly better at least. And then comes the 2004-2005 groups which is looking much better. Hopefully that's the first sign of the program improving, and not just a couple of fluke years.

It's still too early but 2006's also looks nice.

 

[Rusty7550]

It's still too early but 2006's also looks nice.

You probably wanted to say 2005 (Sisik, Dvorsky,Molnar)

 

[SoundAndFury]

With just one player drafted per year, Germany isn't going to continue developing early picks on a regular picks. Draisaitl is a beast no doubt. I think Seider and Stützle will be good NHL players, and that maybe Bokk also makes it. But why are you so convinced they will end up better than Marco Sturm, Jochen Hecht, Marcel Goc, Christian Ehrhoff and Dennis Seidenberg?

That is true, I'm judging from a few age groups and it might be premature but we have seen the Swiss, Danish and German examples when one elite prospect equals more are following him. Yes, Slovakia has and always had the quantity, that's what keeps them at the elite in WJC but the last time they had a first-rounder was...? I can't remember. That's why I'm saying they are closer to the countries that can not produce those successfully than those that can. And this, in turn, isn't something based on a couple of generations.

You might say Germany only produces one player per year, I will say they have 4 1st rounders in the last 7 years and regarding the number of picks, teams just don't pick many Germans regardless of their quality. Kahun was never drafted, Lean Bergmann was never drafted, Plachta, Ehliz, Eisenschmidt. They have all became good enough players to be signed by the NHL teams but none of them was drafted, arguable due to some mixture of Germany not being scouted heavily and having an attractive league for home-grown players. Russia would only get 7-10 players or so drafted as well for a while there but there is a number of things why teams choose to draft or not draft the player. Same way the number of Swiss players drafted is pretty skewed as well.

Regarding the German guys, I think it's fairly obvious, Draisaitl is the superstar they have never had and Sturm/Hecht and Seidenberg are basically the floor of what Stutzle and Seider projects to be. Bokk is going to be either an elite European league player or NHL top-6er, Grubauer in goal, Gawanke is solid in the AHL at 20, Peterka, Reichel, Kahun and Grubauer. The guys you have listed trail behind in quality already and the quantity is bound to catch up fairly soon as well.

Also, I don't really understand your sentiment towards Slovaks in this thread

I may have been harsh and generalized too much but Slovakia played an absolutely terrible, mistake-riddled game, the roster doesn't feature any talent other than 4-5 guys. So when someone says relegation "isn't ever gonna happen" it gives out a pretty strong denial vibe. Sorry.

Alright, I was implying something completely else. A team's past performance is just a past performance. It may have no impact on a future game against a different opponent, let alone on a hypothetical game. Being sure how a hypothetical game would play out and trashing one team not worthy of the other based on one game is just trolling. Even more so when prior head to head matchups over over any period say otherwise.

It's not just about the performance, the talent isn't there either, that's the big thing. Compare your roster to Belarus' one. Is there a gap, at all?

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

Was Musorov eligible for 2019 draft?

 

[greasysnapper]

Was Musorov eligible for 2019 draft?

Yep.

A few people mentioned him last year as a possible 7th rounder (I wasn't one of them), but he's sure looking possibly draftable in 2020. At least worth a camp invite.

 

[Elvs]

That is true, I'm judging from a few age groups and it might be premature but we have seen the Swiss, Danish and German examples when one elite prospect equals more are following him. Yes, Slovakia has and always had the quantity, that's what keeps them at the elite in WJC but the last time they had a first-rounder was...? I can't remember. That's why I'm saying they are closer to the countries that can not produce those successfully than those that can. And this, in turn, isn't something based on a couple of generations.

You might say Germany only produces one player per year, I will say they have 4 1st rounders in the last 7 years and regarding the number of picks, teams just don't pick many Germans regardless of their quality. Kahun was never drafted, Lean Bergmann was never drafted, Plachta, Ehliz, Eisenschmidt. They have all became good enough players to be signed by the NHL teams but none of them was drafted, arguable due to some mixture of Germany not being scouted heavily and having an attractive league for home-grown players. Russia would only get 7-10 players or so drafted as well for a while there but there is a number of things why teams choose to draft or not draft the player. Same way the number of Swiss players drafted is pretty skewed as well.

I liked Kahun a lot in the world juniors. I couldn't believe he went undrafted and I'm happy to see that he found his to the NHL eventually.

As for guys like Plachta, Ehliz and Eisenschmid, Slovakia is still producing players at this level. Michal Cajkovsky is a top defenseman in the KHL. Martin Bakos is another productive KHL player. Patrik Rybar is off to a great start in Liiga. All those three were signed to NHL contracts last summer even though they were undrafted. Robert Lantosi is a 24 year old undrafted forward producing well in the AHL this year. Adam Liska is a 20 year old leading his KHL team in goals. Filip Krivosik is another 20 year old who is doing well in Liiga right now. It wouldn't be surprising to see those three sign NHL deals sooner or later.

All in all, I agree with most of what you are saying. But regarding your quote which said: "There was a thread about how Slovak hockey is recovering, well, it isn't", I think it's worth mentioning that only two players on this Slovak WJC team was mentioned in that thread. Maxim Cajkovic and Samuel Knazko. The 2000 and 2001 age groups are weaker than the previous groups and upcoming groups. This team doesn't have much depth, but on the other hand it looks like more Slovaks could get drafted the upcoming summer than I previously thought. Neither Okuliar or Hlavaj was mentioned in my thread about Slovakias prospects, and now it's possible both could get drafted.

 

[SoundAndFury]

All in all, I agree with most of what you are saying. But regarding your quote which said: "There was a thread about how Slovak hockey is recovering, well, it isn't"

Yes, it was words I didn't really think through, people tend to tweet/post impulsive crap mid-game... It was just a very underwhelming performance.