GDT: GAME 16 | Islanders @ Senators | (Finally)Back in Black(Friday) Edition | Fri Nov 24th 2023, 7:30PM | TSN5, RDS

[NB613]

Sandy is our best LD, defensively, over Chychrun. I see JBD improving at RD, but imo he would be better-paired with Sandy..

So he would not be exposed on defensive gaffes like what happened on the face off 2-on-1 goal caused by Chych. (Chych would benefit from stability of Zub)

Sandy JBD
Chychrun Zub
Branny Hamonic

Chabot-Branny and Hamonic as 7th D

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I get the impression reading posts that some posters need that single, smoking gun reason to blame everything on. I've read this multiple times from multiple posters, so it's not exactly a rarity.

Something tells me (basic logic & common sense) that not everything can be blamed on bad goaltending from one of our goaltenders when that goaltender does not play every game and even our better goaltender has lost multiple games.

We are in 21st place (league wide) with a .500 record. Goalies that have done poorly here have much better stats after being traded to teams that are better. That suggests that we need to see some rather significant improvements in multiple areas in my mind.

Anyhow, at this point I'll be repeating the same points in future posts. So, I think we've run this to ground now.

The Senators have played the fewest games in the entire league…but are sporting the 19th best record….

 

[UglyPuckling]

I feel like most people know there's is never one person to blame. But its easier to blame one person or facet of the team than looking big picture. Coaching can effect the team in more areas and DJ has been here for a while so he is going to get the majority of the heat. Way easier to fire a coach than all the players. But people are kidding themselves if they think it's 1 thing. Everyone bares some level of responsibility.

I agree with the bolded. Even in this recent Islanders game, they needed a goal in the 3rd period to tie the game up. It was still a winnable game at that point. But, they looked flat and couldn't generate anything. You can't blame a goalie for that. IIRC correctly, Forsberg let in one softie, but we lost by 2 goals.

Many Leaf fans blamed goaltending for their recent lack of playoff success. But their big guns (Matthews & Marner) were inept & rather silent (from a point production perspective) in the clutch playoff games.

I think there's a segment that are always looking for the one scapegoat. Goaltending does tend to be a favourite target. It's human nature I guess.

I can see some soul searching amongst Senator fans now. They are wondering how good their team is. It's a good question. We do see some signs both statistically and via the eye test that they could be a good team. On the other hand, maybe they are what their record suggests they are? At some point, it's got to translate to Wins. That's all that really matters in the end.

 

[UglyPuckling]

The Senators have played the fewest games in the entire league…but are sporting the 19th best record….
View attachment 773715

Yes, based on points percentage. 16th place team has .550 record based on points percentage. We're not there yet, and will need to improve and pick up our pace to get there.

 

[Flamingo]

Is there a name for this 2-game mini-season? 3rd season? Cooked Goose? Let's hope we at least hit .500 in this, one of the two shortest, but somehow the pivotal, mini-season.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The Senators have played the fewest games in the entire league…but are sporting the 19th best record….
View attachment 773715

Unfortunately we need to be at least in the top 16

 

[Norris4Norris]

Yost has wrote an article explaining that the Sens are actually around 11th best in the league despite their record.

"For most teams in most situations, the standings aren’t dishonest. But that’s not a golden rule"

"after just a month or two of hockey, more sensitive measures like goal differential are not just more meaningful, they’re more predictive of future outcome."

Ottawa's goal differential is +0.31, which makes Yost believe that the Sens will show a winning record over the length of the season.

Yost: Standings don’t tell the whole story this early in NHL season | TSN

This early in the NHL regular season, Travis Yost argues you must look beyond records and read more in to more sensitive measures to determine who the true contenders are.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Top 8 in the conference by pt%

 

[bert]

I agree with the bolded. Even in this recent Islanders game, they needed a goal in the 3rd period to tie the game up. It was still a winnable game at that point. But, they looked flat and couldn't generate anything. You can't blame a goalie for that. IIRC correctly, Forsberg let in one softie, but we lost by 2 goals.

Many Leaf fans blamed goaltending for their recent lack of playoff success. But their were big guns (Matthews & Marner) were inept & rather silent (from a point production perspective) in the clutch playoff games.

I think there's a segment that are always looking for the one scapegoat. Goaltending does tend to be a favourite target. It's human nature I guess.

I can see some soul searching amongst Senator fans now. They are wondering how good their team is. It's a good question. We do see some signs both statistically and via the eye test that they could be a good team. On the other hand, maybe they are what their record suggests they are? At some point, it's got to translate to Wins. That's all that really matters in the end.

Its really hard to tell what this team is as I do think to an extent they arent getting the message from the coaching staff. They are working hard, but not smart so they are reacting positively to the motivation but the message doesnt seem to resonate.

I guess my biggest thing with this team is what happened to Batherson and Chabot. These were the two best players on this team not very long ago with their entire careers ahead of them. If you look at players they used to be compared to its shocking. Batherson to a guy like Bratt, Chabot to a guy like Quinn Hughes. How can development shift this much when the raw talent is there. I think until we see those players under new coaching we wont know if this is a perenial contender or a perennial squeek in or just miss the playoffs group. I can tell you right now they need both these players to be what they were trending to be or this will not be a real threat to win anything significant. The bottom line is they have nothing left coming thats high end in the prospect pool to replace them so they gotta turn out. The mismanagement of the assets is going to be dire if neither of them can find their form.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Yes, based on points percentage. 16th place team has .550 record based on points percentage. We're not there yet, and will need to improve and pick up our pace to get there.

I’m getting to the point that it (Wild card spot) might be out of reach within the next two weeks. Senators are currently sitting with a little over 45% chance of making the playoffs, and up until now, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NHL, so the hill to climb is only getting steeper for here on.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Mornings Hour 2

Senators at American Thanksgiving, what the Sens have to do to finish with 98 points, what's ailing Tim Stützle, playoff race in the West and the Eagles outlast the Bills in week 12.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Burrowsaurus]

View attachment 773943
Top 8 in the conference by pt%

Wait wtf are the capitals doing there.

 

[HSF]

Wait wtf are the capitals doing there.

they haven't used injuries as an excuse

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Wait wtf are the capitals doing there.

Good bounces.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Its really hard to tell what this team is as I do think to an extent they arent getting the message from the coaching staff. They are working hard, but not smart so they are reacting positively to the motivation but the message doesnt seem to resonate.

I guess my biggest thing with this team is what happened to Batherson and Chabot. These were the two best players on this team not very long ago with their entire careers ahead of them. If you look at players they used to be compared to its shocking. Batherson to a guy like Bratt, Chabot to a guy like Quinn Hughes. How can development shift this much when the raw talent is there. I think until we see those players under new coaching we wont know if this is a perenial contender or a perennial squeek in or just miss the playoffs group. I can tell you right now they need both these players to be what they were trending to be or this will not be a real threat to win anything significant. The bottom line is they have nothing left coming thats high end in the prospect pool to replace them so they gotta turn out. The mismanagement of the assets is going to be dire if neither of them can find their form.

Yes, I agree with your points. I find it hard to decide how good this team really is.

We were rebuilding before, so expectations were different then versus what they are now.

At some point you need more than just to see signs, or use stats to try to predict. We need wins. We need to be above .550 i.e., clearly a playoff bound team. And, looking at it from the future perspective (versus right now or this year), we will need to be that good or that level for multiple years. Otherwise, all we have are hypothesis versus real results.

I don't know what Chabot is either now. Hopefully he's the player we saw earlier in his career and just needs to refocus and find his game again. The same for Batherson. Batherson can still produce offensively it seems, but can he play a responsible defensive game while still generating points at a good level?

Actually, that's a question that could apply to many other players. Can they play a good, responsible defensive game AND generate sufficient point production on a consistent basis to win games (above a .550 level)? And, I think we have to accept that there's always going to be injuries. We can't rely on that as a crutch. Lots of good teams have injuries too, but they just keep winning and work with the next man up philosophy. To be a truly good team, you have to deal with some adversity along the way.

Time will tell.

 

[Micklebot]

Wait wtf are the capitals doing there.

The won 4 of their last 5 games

 

[UglyPuckling]

The won 4 of their last 5 games

Ekblad & Montour are back in the lineup now as well.

Oops - thought the topic was the Panthers. I see now its the Capitals.