Post-Game Talk: Game 1: Let's Get This Show on the Road | Blues at Hawks | 7:00 PM CT | NBCSN

[ChiHawks10]

Y'all are spending a lot of energy on a guy that BARELY played. Tootoo looked good in preseason.
It was 1 game.
Things will be okay.
I was particularly impressed with Motte, but I have been praising him since I saw him last year. I liked Hartman as well. I am happy that those guys played well.
The game was closer than the score indicated. The PK sucked ass and thats when the Blues scored.
Hawks were outplayed, but had that penalty box train not happened, Hawks might have won.

Calm down guys. It is October.

Not only is it only October... it's only after the VERY FIRST GAME.

 

[Stu Cazzo]

Would you rather have Hossa worn down?
I don't get it

 

[Stu Cazzo]

Hartman and Panik are on pace to score 82 goals each this season and you people are upset?

 

[CallMeShaft]

Schmaltz had a bad game (so did Hino and Tootoo), but I'd still give him another week to see if he can do better. If he can't, we can send him down to Rockford for a few months and bring up Kero (who's maybe a better fit for a bottom 6 role).

I'd honestly not hate to see this become the lineup a couple weeks from now provided Motte and Panik continue playing as good as they did last night, and Schmaltz needing a bit more seasoning...

Motte Toews Panik
Panarin Anisimov Kane
Hino Rasmussen Hossa
Kero Kruger Hartman/Tootoo


I'd also give it a couple weeks to see how this defense can handle having only Seabrook as a righty in the top 6. If we handle it just fine, maybe we'll wind up trading TVR for some forward depth. Think Gustafsson will likely also be traded for a similar purpose in the coming weeks (unfair to have him playing in Rockford at the age of 24 when everyone knows he can play in a bottom pairing in the NHL).

A few tweaks to the roster and the core playing like they should (and not like their crappy play from last night) and we're in relatively good shape.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Between 2008 and 2015, nobody in the NHL played more hockey than Marian Hossa.

I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to knowing how he should take care of his body and how much he should practice.

 

[ChiGuySez]

No kidding. Hossa more than any other player for sure. HF50 might be calling for Hossa to do bag skates.

 

[piteus]

Kanes the one that didn't produce last night, why are you talking about Toews? He had an assist. He was the best in Corsi, so they had the possession when he was out there. Your talking about Toews because it fits the same narrative as last year.

If we are going to make grand statements about one game (I don't think we should) lets at least base them on fact. Kane's on pace for 0 points this year. The horror.

I was on Kane too. He didn't get a pass last night. Toews' contract and a weak season last year puts more a focus on him this season. That's the part of being Captain AND taking well more than 10% of the salary cap.

AGAIN, Toews and Kane were easily outplayed by St. Louis' stars. When that happens, the Hawks will most likely lose. If we lost by fluke goals, I wouldn't be so critical. But we were outplayed on HOME. It wasn't a good game.

 

[JustABlackhawksFan]

I hope for most of your sakes that the Hawks beat Nashville tomorrow because I can't imagine how this board will be if the Hawks start 0-2.

Friendly reminder that Pittsburgh absolutely sucked for about half a season and then ended up winning the Stanley Cup.

 

[piteus]

I hope for most of your sakes that the Hawks beat Nashville tomorrow because I can't imagine how this board will be if the Hawks start 0-2.

Friendly reminder that Pittsburgh absolutely sucked for about half a season and then ended up winning the Stanley Cup.

IF we play well, show improvement ... possess the puck and improve on the penalty kill (Hjamarlsson will help immensely), I'll be happy. Fluke goals happen. But even if we won last night, I would have been discouraged by our lack of possession and penalty kill.

If you remember how the Hawks played in the late 90s / early 2000s ... it was that. Dump and chase hockey AND repeat last night. Obviously, having 6 rookies on the ice will do that ... but we need to improve our possession. That's a no brainer.

 

[Enyaw]

Hartman and Panik are on pace to score 82 goals each this season and you people are upset?

Matthews on a pace for 328

 

[BK]

Matthews on a pace for 328

Easily sustainable for the baby Jesus from AZ.

 

[piteus]

Easily sustainable for the baby Jesus from AZ.

Edmonton 3:16 - McJesus is the only Way.

The player known as Matthews is a false god. Born to a California man and Mexican woman. The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world McJesus didn't exist. Be careful ... be careful of his false prophets from Toronto.

 

[LordKOTL]

It was pretty bad, but we lost 1 game last night. That's it. No one got hurt. Its a really poor "effort" but that's it.

Oh, I agree, just with Hjammer coming back between TVR, Forsling, and Kempny and their respective games last night the only way TVR doesn't become Eddie-O's errand boy next game is if Q is taking industrial-grade hallucinogenic pharmaceuticals rectally.

We get Hjammer back next game, the Q-O-Matic 76 goes into effect, and we get to see how the team bounces back. I won't argue for punitive measures unless we fail to split at least 1 from Nashville.

 

[hawksfan50]

Highlight of the night was not Matthews 4 goals or McGod's performance vs. CGY ...BUT rather Seabrook's own goal dreadful backwards clearn into the open net ...which made all the ha ha highlight reels of shame ...

 

[projexns]

I'm advocating taking the anchor off and putting him (Schmaltz) a position to succeed instead of a position to fail, yes.

Exactly.

Tootoo can be average-to-solid defensively. He is not good. Good defensively is a player that can be used in a shutdown/neutralization role. Tootoo should not be used as this and needs to be used differently (20-30 games max). Clearly you are using the two words as the same.

I can agree with seeing as little as possible of Tootoo. The bolded part??

Do you know how he was used last year? What role?

He was used in a dzone start shutdown role which is not at all how he should be used.

He was solid the year before in NJ btw.

Let’s deconstruct this deeply flawed metric of zone starts with regards to Tootoo that give the impression that he’s some defensive zone adept with 60% zone starts there. The flaws begin with how the popular web-sites present the numbers:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=zoneStartPctg

The info presented here suggests 39.54% o-zone starts, and therefore 60.46% d-zone starts. Imagine that, 60% defensive zone starts! That’s so Bergeron-esque!

Except that the neutral zone faceoffs are left out for whatever reason. When those are included, the real, actual number of defensive zone starts gets reduced to 37.1% :

138 o-zone starts – 220 neutral starts – 211 d-zone starts = 569 faceoffs

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...amid=18&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

Now deconstruct further by adding shifts that start on the fly in the neutral zone.

It’s been suggested in some analysis that around 60% of shifts start on the fly. I can’t verify that number, so I simply gave Tootoo his proportional share of his 1030 shifts to his even-strength ice time to come up with 920 total shifts at even-strength:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...152016&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=timeOnIce


So 920 shifts can now be allocated as:

138 o-zone starts – 571 neutral starts – 211 d-zone starts = 920 starts

15.0% o-zone starts – 62.1% neutral starts – 22.9% d-zone starts

Now factor in 50% average of faceoffs won/lost to yield advantage/disadvantage:

69 –o-zone starts with a face-off win / 106 d-zone starts with a face-off loss

So in the 66 games Tootoo played in last year, there was a total of 37 extra disadvantageous zone starts for him to contend with, less than one zone start per game (a far cry from this impression of 60% defensive zone starts) and from these 37 disadvantageous starts came 26 extra goals against with a decent goalie as the last line of defence most of the time.

Icing the puck and having the goalie freeze the puck when you are hemmed in your own zone adds to your defensive zone starts without adding a lick of defensive ability. Furthermore, Tootoo has been given relatively easy matchups over the past two years in Joisey, by any metric:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...N.J&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+11+12+13+14+15+16#

He skates fast and hits, but is otherwise very limited and seems incapable of any sustained offensive zone time. He had exactly two points at even-strength last year. At age 33 I don’t think he’s going to get any better and about the only event I expect from him is putting us on the PK.

There’s several players drafted around Schmaltz’s spot in 2014 already playing regular NHL minutes and I’d sure like to see what he’s got skating on a line other than what I saw last night.

 

[Panzerspitze]

I hope for most of your sakes that the Hawks beat Nashville tomorrow because I can't imagine how this board will be if the Hawks start 0-2.

Friendly reminder that Pittsburgh absolutely sucked for about half a season and then ended up winning the Stanley Cup.

Again, Pitt made a coaching change mid-season.

 

[BK]

I can agree with seeing as little as possible of Tootoo. The bolded part?

The bolded part says he should not be used in a defensive shutdown role. Not complicated.

 

[projexns]

The bolded part says he should not be used in a defensive shutdown role. Not complicated.

He never was, but not to worry. You asked for some context so I provided some.

I just had to get the zone starts thing off my chest because like a lot of advanced stats it doesn't really provide any significant info 90% of the time. But once in a while they shed some beneath-the-surface light, like explaining to a non-Hawks fan why Kruger is deemed so valuable by the club.

/end of zone-starts rant.

 

[BK]

Let’s deconstruct this deeply flawed metric of zone starts with regards to Tootoo that give the impression that he’s some defensive zone adept with 60% zone starts there. The flaws begin with how the popular web-sites present the numbers:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,30&sort=zoneStartPctg

The info presented here suggests 39.54% o-zone starts, and therefore 60.46% d-zone starts. Imagine that, 60% defensive zone starts! That’s so Bergeron-esque!

Except that the neutral zone faceoffs are left out for whatever reason. When those are included, the real, actual number of defensive zone starts gets reduced to 37.1% :

138 o-zone starts – 220 neutral starts – 211 d-zone starts = 569 faceoffs

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...amid=18&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

Neutral zone starts are not included because they are neutral. This has always been presented this way and it is not deeply flawed like you seem to think. His neutral zone draws were similar to the other 2 players on NJ that lead the team in Dzone draw %. Again it is not deeply flawed at all.

Now deconstruct further by adding shifts that start on the fly in the neutral zone.

It’s been suggested in some analysis that around 60% of shifts start on the fly. I can’t verify that number, so I simply gave Tootoo his proportional share of his 1030 shifts to his even-strength ice time to come up with 920 total shifts at even-strength:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...152016&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=timeOnIce


So 920 shifts can now be allocated as:

138 o-zone starts – 571 neutral starts – 211 d-zone starts = 920 starts

15.0% o-zone starts – 62.1% neutral starts – 22.9% d-zone starts

Now factor in 50% average of faceoffs won/lost to yield advantage/disadvantage:

69 –o-zone starts with a face-off win / 106 d-zone starts with a face-off loss

So in the 66 games Tootoo played in last year, there was a total of 37 extra disadvantageous zone starts for him to contend with, less than one zone start per game (a far cry from this impression of 60% defensive zone starts) and from these 37 disadvantageous starts came 26 extra goals against with a decent goalie as the last line of defence most of the time.

Your though process is flawed here in that you think that changes on the fly are all neutral. To determine this number you would need to determine who had possession during every single change to determine how each change on the fly is allocated.

Icing the puck and having the goalie freeze the puck when you are hemmed in your own zone adds to your defensive zone starts without adding a lick of defensive ability.

And you can get hemmed in your on zone by a player dumping the puck and the goalie freezing it. Lots of variables.

He skates fast and hits, but is otherwise very limited and seems incapable of any sustained offensive zone time. He had exactly two points at even-strength last year. At age 33 I don’t think he’s going to get any better and about the only event I expect from him is putting us on the PK.

He was able to sustain offensive zone time at time in his career so this observation is off. He has to play under control but in 20-30 games if he has 30-40 penalty minutes (with 4-5 fights) would be more than acceptable.

There’s several players drafted around Schmaltz’s spot in 2014 already playing regular NHL minutes and I’d sure like to see what he’s got skating on a line other than what I saw last night.

Lines last night we not constructed well.




In regards to Zone Start %, there are arguement to include all three but I am against that way of thinking. We can agree to disagree on it.

 

[BK]

He never was, but not to worry. You asked for some context so I provided some.

I just had to get the zone starts thing off my chest because like a lot of advanced stats it doesn't really provide any significant info 90% of the time. But once in a while they shed some beneath-the-surface light, like explaining to a non-Hawks fan why Kruger is deemed so valuable by the club.

/end of zone-starts rant.

He was given a high percentage of defensive zone draws compared to the rest of his team so to say he never was is not completely true.

 

[JustABlackhawksFan]

Again, Pitt made a coaching change mid-season.

I'm aware.

My point though was Pittsburgh sucked for half a season and still managed to turn things around.

Anaheim pulled off a similar turn around without a coaching change during the season.

The Blackhawks have played one game.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I just don't get why you'd play Schmaltz predominantly as a scoring line winger most of the preseason and then opening night throw him with a semi-talented water bug and a fourth line grinder/extra forward and shift him to center.

It's just poor line construction.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I was pretty certain Schmaltz played C in the last couple of pre-season games.

Aside from that, it's pretty hard to construct a good line with a bunch of barely NHLers in your bottom 6.

1st line is good the way it is. I don't see how Panik on the 4th line would be beneficial. Right now, he is better than Schmaltz. And Schmaltz isn't a LW.

2nd line was best in hockey last year.

3rd line seemed to go pretty well last night, and is being tried as a shutdown line, Schmaltz can't handle that type of role IMO.

4th line was hot garbage because we have zero NHL depth.

 

[projexns]

Guess my rant isn't over.....

Do you know how he was used last year? What role?

He was used in a dzone start shutdown role which is not at all how he should be used.

Read your words. Tootoo was not used in a “dzone start shutdown†role as you characterize it.

New Jersey was a non-playoff team, meaning they were not very good. Because they were not very good, they started from their defensive zone a lot. Moreso than any other NHL team:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&sort=DZPCT&sortdir=DESC

There’s numerous teammates ahead of Tootoo in defensive zone starts both in raw numbers and on a per-game or per minute basis:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=18&type=corsi&sort=DZFO&sortdir=DESC

He was on a non-playoff team with 10 minutes of ice-time per game where his much fewer shifts had a slightly higher defensive zone start percentage-wise in the same range as Smith-Pelly and Tyler Kennedy. It's a statistical aberration. Tootoo is not a “dzone start shutdown role†player.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...&teamid=18&type=corsi&sort=DZPCT&sortdir=DESC

Neutral zone starts are not included because they are neutral. This has always been presented this way and it is not deeply flawed like you seem to think. His neutral zone draws were similar to the other 2 players on NJ that lead the team in Dzone draw %. Again it is not deeply flawed at all.

No, they are real starting points of a shift where a player has no offensive or defensive advantage/disadvantage and the offensive advantage has to be earned by getting possession and transitioning to the offensive zone. This requires time and effort and half your shift could be done by the time you establish control in the offensive zone.

Patrick Kane started 36.9% of his faceoffs in the neutral zone. He had no offensive advantage. Advanced stats magically assign half of these starts to the offensive zone as if you were one face-off win away from a shot from the high-slot.

I hear the 60% number thrown around quite a bit with regards to a player's zone starts when the real number is significantly less than that, and the effects are further reduced by a faceoff lost. If you are in the offensive zone without the puck, you are not on offence.

Your though process is flawed here in that you think that changes on the fly are all neutral. To determine this number you would need to determine who had possession during every single change to determine how each change on the fly is allocated.

Think about it. You'll either have possession of the puck with your d-man holding it in the d-zone waiting for the change or you've dumped it into the offensive zone and changed then. Often both teams are changing at this same time. Line changes are by and large neutral and they make up the majority of starts:

https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15...rts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

 

[Hawkaholic]

I don't care what anyone says, moving Schmaltz to the top line, and replacing Tootoo with whoever is not going to magically make this team so much better. Our team lives and dies on our top players playing like our best players. That's the reality of it when 2 of your players make 21mil.

If anyone wants to blame anybody, you can start with the 21mil poster boys for demanding so much money in a cap world.