G Carter Hart (2016, 48th, PHI)

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Maybe you should watch Flyers games, or their highlights at least.

Yes, he allowed 4 goals in his last game, but you gotta see what kinds the goals were what he gave.


(its not like there was a shot on goal, front of the net hassle, poor defending from Flyers)


(same thing what above)


(Hart was left all one, that defending...if you can call that defending...was a big fat joke)

I don’t think you have a clue what GSAA is. It takes shot location into account. He’s pretty awful by that metric. Stolarz faces tougher shots and was more successful at stopping them and somehow he’s garbage and Hart is great?

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

I've got no horse in this fight, I'm a Habs fan, but Hart has played what - 10 NHL games total? A sample size this small is bound to have skewed numbers, especially considering his game on NYE - bringing analytics into the discussion at this point just screams "I'm a stat-watcher who hasn't watched a game yet".

You can't come to conclusions based off numbers alone. I've been impressed with the kid every time I've seen him thus far.

Though to your point, as mentioned, it is still a very small sample size, so it is tough to extrapolate anything from this. But it has been a very promising start when you consider all the variables (extremely young for a goalie, only started pro hockey this year, playing for a team which has been struggling, defense in front of him has been suspect at times, etc).

If I were a Flyers fan I'd be very excited. As a Habs fan, this kid reminds me A LOT of Carey Price.

I have no horse either. I just find it hilarious that there are baseless “he’s been excellent” posts with nothing but Flyers fandom to back it up.

To the sample size argument, I mentioned in the same sample Stolarz put up better numbers and he was the root of the problem for Flyers fans.

If you can explain to me how that makes sense, go ahead. It doesn’t.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Nope. Different drafts, different ages. Just because Blackwood has spent more time in the pros. If anyything, that supports the notion that Hart is by far the superior prospect.

Just sayin

Blackwood had a better save percentage in his 19/20 year old rookie AHL year than Hart has in his 20 year old rookie AHL year. Not to mention he has been far superior (in a very small sample size) in the NHL. Hart is not "by far" a superior prospect. However, I would definitely bet on Hart being better.

 

[mja]

I have no horse either. I just find it hilarious on baseless “he’s been excellent” posts with nothing but Flyers fandom to back it up.

To the sample size argument, I mentioned in the same sample Stolarz put up better numbers and he was the root of the problem for Flyers fans.

If you can explain to me how that makes sense, go ahead. It doesn’t.

None of this makes sense.

1) No Flyers fan anywhere on the planet Earth, in any dimension, has ever said that Anthony Stolarz was the root of the problem.

2) Small sample is small sample. The whole point is that it's too small to draw any meaning conclusions from it, so comparing one small sample to another is idiotic.

3) I know that everyone is in love with every newfangled stat that comes down the pike these days, but you might want to actually watch a game if the advanced stats you're looking at are suggesting that the guy with the .880 sv % and 3.90 gaa has outplayed the guy with the .913 sv % and 2.70 gaa. You know, just for some additional context or whatever.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

None of this makes sense.

1) No Flyers fan anywhere on the planet Earth, in any dimension, has ever said that Anthony Stolarz was the root of the problem.

2) Small sample is small sample. The whole point is that it's too small to draw any meaning conclusions from it, so comparing one small sample to another is idiotic.

3) I know that everyone is in love with every newfangled stat that comes down the pike these days, but you might want to actually watch a game if the advanced stats you're looking at are suggesting that the guy with the .880 sv % and 3.90 gaa has outplayed the guy with the .913 sv % and 2.70 gaa. You know, just for some additional context or whatever.

Save percentage and GAA don’t account for shot location or quality....you’d have to have a video of each goal they allow and subjectively analyze if the goalie should have saved it. Sv% and gaa are meaningless without context.

 

[mja]

Save percentage and GAA don’t account for shot location or quality....you’d have to have a video of each goal they allow and subjectively analyze if the goalie should have saved it. Sv% and gaa are meaningless without context.

I've got nothing against advanced stats (with the exception that people tend to abuse them, but then people abuse all stats), but it doesn't mean they're inherently superior in all ways to stats that don't require a working knowledge of algebra to figure out. We're talking about a 1.2 goal a game difference! We're talking about a 33 point difference in save %! If that doesn't make you pause and wonder if you should stop with the fancy start argument and actually WATCH the players in question actually play in order to have more context when making your judgement, then I really don't know what to tell you.

I've watched almost all of both of these players' games, so I've been able to analyze, to an extent, not only each goal they've allowed but also each save they've made (and even stuff beyond that, like how they've impacted the opposition's game plan, etc.). I've been able to analyze their positioning, mobility, technique, rebound control, stick-handling, emotional regulation, etc., etc., etc. I can definitively state that Hart's positioning, technique, and rebound control are superior than Stolarz's, (or, for example, Petr Mrazek). I can also definitively state that Stolarz has good mobility despite his size, and that Mrazek was a flaming hot mess of a goaltender for the Flyers last season, despite sporting an almost perfectly average GSAA per Corsica, which is where you pulled this Hart stat from, right?

I ask because GSAA per hockeyreference.com has completely different numbers. For example, per hockeyreference.com, Hart's GSAA is +1.59 (and meanwhile Mrazek's looks just as awful as I would expect). Not being an advanced stat guy, I can't tell if that's two sources getting their numbers from different places, or Corsica getting more "advanced" and adding special stuff into the equation, some of which may be suspect, or rather likely suspect, given the absurdity of Mrazek's numbers.

Anyhow, you've likely watched these guys play a fraction of the time I have, and have based the entirety of your opinion on recently invented statistics (with different sources having wildly different numbers for what at least appears to be the exact same state) in a small sample, completely ignoring traditional stats that, while inherently flawed, tell you important basic information that oftentimes advanced metrics don't accurately capture. Feel free to consult your spreadsheets, but you may want to catch a hockey game every once in a while as well.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

I've got nothing against advanced stats (with the exception that people tend to abuse them, but then people abuse all stats), but it doesn't mean they're inherently superior in all ways to stats that don't require a working knowledge of algebra to figure out. We're talking about a 1.2 goal a game difference! We're talking about a 33 point difference in save %! If that doesn't make you pause and wonder if you should stop with the fancy start argument and actually WATCH the players in question actually play in order to have more context when making your judgement, then I really don't know what to tell you.

I've watched almost all of both of these players' games, so I've been able to analyze, to an extent, not only each goal they've allowed but also each save they've made (and even stuff beyond that, like how they've impacted the opposition's game plan, etc.). I've been able to analyze their positioning, mobility, technique, rebound control, stick-handling, emotional regulation, etc., etc., etc. I can definitively state that Hart's positioning, technique, and rebound control are superior than Stolarz's, (or, for example, Petr Mrazek). I can also definitively state that Stolarz has good mobility despite his size, and that Mrazek was a flaming hot mess of a goaltender for the Flyers last season, despite sporting an almost perfectly average GSAA per Corsica, which is where you pulled this Hart stat from, right?

I ask because GSAA per hockeyreference.com has completely different numbers. For example, per hockeyreference.com, Hart's GSAA is +1.59 (and meanwhile Mrazek's looks just as awful as I would expect). Not being an advanced stat guy, I can't tell if that's two sources getting their numbers from different places, or Corsica getting more "advanced" and adding special stuff into the equation, some of which may be suspect, or rather likely suspect, given the absurdity of Mrazek's numbers.

Anyhow, you've likely watched these guys play a fraction of the time I have, and have based the entirety of your opinion on recently invented statistics (with different sources having wildly different numbers for what at least appears to be the exact same state) in a small sample, completely ignoring traditional stats that, while inherently flawed, tell you important basic information that oftentimes advanced metrics don't accurately capture. Feel free to consult your spreadsheets, but you may want to catch a hockey game every once in a while as well.

Fair enough. Some legitimate points made. Nice to see some actual critique rather than mindless bashing.

I'd ask you though based on your evaluation, would you say he's played "excellent" or "very good"? Even if you ignore the GSAA, the Flyers have played much better with Hart in goal than they have almost any other Flyers goalie this season statistically, and yet his "traditional" statistics are below league average.

 

[mja]

Fair enough. Some legitimate points made. Nice to see some actual critique rather than mindless bashing.

I'd ask you though based on your evaluation, would you say he's played "excellent" or "very good"? Even if you ignore the GSAA, the Flyers have played much better with Hart in goal than they have almost any other Flyers goalie this season statistically, and yet his "traditional" statistics are below league average.

He's played good-to-very good. Encouragingly so, especially considering his age / experience. He's not been perfect but he's never really been bad, either. His positioning is on point, his movement in the crease is stupidly efficient, and he's sticky. His mental approach so far has been ridiculous, he just hasn't gotten frazzled by anything, vs. a guy like Alex Lyon who can completely fall apart after a setback.

In short, it's the most competent goaltending the Flyers have gotten this season, aside from a stretch where Elliott was playing pretty damn well earlier in the year.

As for the below league average stuff, you are approaching that from a strange angle. Unacknowledged is the possibility that the Flyers are playing better because they're getting better goaltending and it's just not being captured by some of the stats you are looking at for any number of reasons. As for traditional stats, GAA & sv % are certainly impacted by team performance, so it's not really all that useful to compare his traditional stats vs. tenders on different teams, particularly while still in a small sample where a single game can swing his numbers around wildly. And anyway, no one is claiming that Hart has been playing like one of the league's top goaltenders, but merely that he has played well.

I'm still confused about the wildly different GSAA numbers on Corsica vs. hockeyreference, and frankly, the numbers on hockeyreference align much more closely (for other goalies as well as Hart) to what I'm seeing on the ice. Any stat that says that Mrazek played better for the Flyers last year than Hart has this year should be viewed with extreme caution.

 

[Dicky Dangles]

What does watching the game say that the numbers don’t? He’s let in goals that an average goalie hasn’t. It’s really indisputable. I get being excited about a prospect but I come across this thread and read posts about him being excellent....by what standard? Relative to what? His objective numbers suggest he’s been performing like a meh backup rather than a starter. I’d trust these numbers any day over the overwhelming bias in reading in this thread.

I find it hilarious that you can’t even criticize this guy using rational arguments without being crucified. I’m not even saying he won’t be good in the future, he very well could he. But the narrative some of you are driving that he’s been good by any measure is just incorrect.

I can't speak for anyone else in this thread, only for what my comment basically meant. Aside from his historic junior career, and having shown flashes of being brilliant in the NHL already, this young man should be a poster boy for what a role model athlete and teammate should be. He's the epitome of the "good Canadian boy" we always hear about. Corny or not, that alone makes me proud that I get to root for him as a Flyers fan. Your numbers will never show any of that.

Nobody should be saying he deserves the Calder or that he's got guaranteed Vezinas and cups in his future, but forgive Flyers fans if we're getting excited about his great potential. With the organization's storied bittersweet history of the position, and the miserable season we're having right now, it's OK for us to find a silver lining in Carter Hart without any concern for percentage points.

 

[wankstifier]

Nice game for the lad. Will have to graduate from this thread soon enough!

 

[mja]

Nice game for the lad. Will have to graduate from this thread soon enough!

39 saves off of 42 shots. Had no chance on the three goals he let up. Have no idea what his GSAA was, but the Flyers simply don't win that game if not for his stellar work tonight.

 

[Rebels57]

Harts had 1 poor start in 11 so far.

In his other 10 starts, hes been either good, very good, or excellent.

Tonight was probably the best start of his career so far.

 

[Rob Brown]

He was great tonight. None of those goals were his fault at all. Really impressed with the kid.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

People here really should accept the fact that he already is NHL level goalie and does not need seasoning in the AHL
Carter already had his AHL seasoning, his adapt period if you will, it was swift, like it was from Midget hockey to Major Junior hockey.

 

[Juicer]

11 Starts

3 1st star
1 2nd star
1 3rd star

I'd say that would fit in the "very good" catagory.

 

[mja]

@ViewsFromThe6ix , Hart's GSAA per Corsica is now .07. The only thing that happened was a single win in which he gave up 3 goals on 42 shots (and on hockeyreference.com it's up to 2.39.) Be careful how you use stats, especially in a sample so small that a single game wildly changes the overall picture.

 

[Intangir]

Another goalie prospect poised to take over a starter's position in the league is nice to see, even if it's for the Flyers. I think Carter Hart could have a similar career trajectory than a guy like Gibson or Vasilevskiy though he'll have to show some real consistency and good performances before his status around the league gets cemented.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Another goalie prospect poised to take over a starter's position in the league is nice to see, even if it's for the Flyers. I think Carter Hart could have a similar career trajectory than a guy like Gibson or Vasilevskiy though he'll have to show some real consistency and good performances before his status around the league gets cemented.

Gibson&Vasi? I actually predict way way better career for him. - maybe its just me

 

[Intangir]

Gibson&Vasi? I actually predict way way better career for him. - maybe its just me

You realize that Gibson and Vasilevskiy are amongst the very best goalies in the league right now, right? They are also just entering a goalie's prime years (26-27 to 31-32 years old) and stand to possibly get even better than they are right now.

When all is said and done, 20 years from now, those two guys could end up being HHOFers, or borderline guys like Price, Bobrovsky and Holtby right now. You can consider yourself (and Flyers fans) lucky if Hart ends up as good as those two, nevermind better.

 

[Rebels57]

@ViewsFromThe6ix , Hart's GSAA per Corsica is now .07. The only thing that happened was a single win in which he gave up 3 goals on 42 shots (and on hockeyreference.com it's up to 2.39.) Be careful how you use stats, especially in a sample so small that a single game wildly changes the overall picture.

Shhh he's trying to spin a narrative.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

You realize that Gibson and Vasilevskiy are amongst the very best goalies in the league right now, right? They are also just entering a goalie's prime years (26-27 to 31-32 years old) and stand to possibly get even better than they are right now.

When all is said and done, 20 years from now, those two guys could end up being HHOFers, or borderline guys like Price, Bobrovsky and Holtby right now. You can consider yourself (and Flyers fans) lucky if Hart ends up as good as those two, nevermind better.

Well....i was talking more of a success wisely and actually having great stats
i was thinking Hart as a multiple SC champion and u 2.00 gaa and .925-.930 sv% (or better) goalie.
(at least few times in his career, with 60+ games as a standard, obviously)
- i know,...super high expectations

Yes, he is (at the moment) a bit shaky at times and his composure isn't at level what it was in Everettt in the WHL
but...only so little amount of games played, his ability to see the puck, his reaction abilities,
his overall movement, his winning complex, those attributes makes me believe in him, greatly over others.

I see him as the next great goalie, Gibson and Vasi are both really good goalies, sometimes even amazing
how they both play, i like, a lot. That said....i don't see them ending up as one of the great goalies in the NHL.

I don't see Ducks ever trading him and highly unlikely Ducks will be a true contender again during Gibsons career
honestly, i have expected much more of him, i will always remember his performance at the 2013 world championships,
never seen a 19 year old goalie play like that at men's games, after 15-16 reg season, i thought...he was finally there,
but....things doesn't always go as you think. - really good season he is having thou... Gibson > Vasilevskiy for me

What comes to Vasilevskiy and his career, i dunno, Ben Bishop was supposed to be the rain maker for Tampa
and lead them to the SC, but that didn't happen, i don't think Tampa is gonna win it this time either ,
not this season nor any other. Bishop was awesome in Tampa (didn't pan out), not as, elsewhere.

If Tampa repeats and rinses with Vasilevskiy, is he gonna lead his new team to SC?, I dunno is he that good.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

He might as well be their starter, don't see why not considering there's no better option for the Flyers at this point.

 

[Rebels57]

He might as well be their starter, don't see why not considering there's no better option for the Flyers at this point.

He is their starter now.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

33 save W.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

12 games, .920 sv%, has faced 30.5 shots per game.