Salary Cap: Future Roster Building (2017-18 and beyond) Pt. 4 | Contract/FA charts in Post #1

[JimmyTwoTimes]

While i don't want to overpay players because of our current situation (getting the most out of guys on their ELCs now and going forward) we can afford to give an extra 500k- 1mil if needed to keep one or two of these guys.

Because injuries aside, everyone of these players we sign would be easy to trade if we decide to in the future..to fill a need.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not many of those guys are going to be content to come here and take 37% of their starts in the D zone like Bonino does. Thornton has been used more like Geno in the last few years than Bonino, so I can't see him wanting to do it. Marleau couldn't handle it, and won't want the job. Hanzal may be the only one that may be willing to do it and capable of doing it, and he's a big injury risk, and he's going to get 4M+ and term and he's older, that's probably a downgrade for more money. If we can find a way to get Jarnkrok then I suppose that's cool, but how are we going to pull that off? He's on a sweetheart deal forever. He'll be a Pred or on LV.

Vegas is going to be treating the expansion draft like an auction, McPhee already said that. If Vegas takes Jarnkrok, he'd be fair game to be traded immediately.

One reason for overpaying Bonino to do what he does is that no one with much skill really wants to do it. And if we lose him and bring in a Thornton, you're going to have to give the guy some O zone starts, and that means Geno and Sid taking more tough minutes going into their 30's.

It's not just about paying Bonino 4M in a vacuum, it's about how he fits on this team, and he's worth it to us.

Bonino isn't worth $4 million to anyone, let alone the Penguins. I really wish this idea that he's incredibly valuable and irreplaceable would just die off. Bonino is nothing that the Penguins couldn't replace.

People forget that before he came to Pittsburgh, Bonino was called a bad defensive player. It doesn't take a player to be great defensively to be able to kill penalties and be able to block shots. Rowney can do what Bonino does defensively minus the offense, and at like $600k, I think I'd rather have him there than Bonino at $4 million.

 

[Empoleon8771]

While i don't want to overpay players because of our current situation (getting the most out of guys on their ELCs now and going forward) we can afford to give an extra 500k- 1mil if needed to keep one or two of these guys.

Because injuries aside, everyone of these players we sign would be easy to trade if we decide to in the future..to fill a need.

But the issue with this is:

A. The Penguins players won't be on their ELCs or cheap contracts forever
B. There are certain players you overpay to keep and none of the guys mentioned in here are those kind of players

If you have to overpay to keep Dumoulin when he becomes a UFA, you do it because he's imperative to the success of the Penguins. You can justify overpaying to keep Hornqvist because of his role on the PP and what it cost the Penguins to trade for him (I know it's a sunk cost fallacy, but I think you can still use it). But guys like Bonino and Cole? Those guys aren't core guys and you shouldn't be overpaying them to keep them around. You be happy with those guys when you still have them for cheap and then let them walk when they start asking for too much money. Let someone who wants to have Bonino be their 2C overpay for him, the Penguins shouldn't match what a team with bad center depth would offer Bonino just because they don't have a readily available replacement.

 

[Riptide]

What is sort of funny to me is that I value Dumoulin on this roster more than I value Schultz. Dumoulin has been an animal these playoffs.

Not sure I'd argue with that but Schultz's role as a PP guy ensures he will be getting a premium past Dumo, rightly or wrongly. Happily there's plenty of roster room for both!

Dumoulin (again) has been amazing. But you can replace his general skillset a lot easier then you can replace Schultz's. Might not get someone as good as him - but if you have a healthy Letang to pair them with, even Hainsey could handle those minutes and that role.

The same goes for Maatta. Love the kid and think that if he can sort out a few things with his skating (turns and first step and maybe gain a tad more speed) he'll be a very very good D for us. But like Dumoulin, finding that defensive minded D who can skate and handle the puck isn't nearly as hard as finding an offensive RD who can QB the PP and handle the puck like Schultz can.

This is why I'll basically give Schultz whatever it takes to re-sign him. The term will obviously change depending on what he wants, but we simply cannot afford not to have JS here next season (or even the one after). Losing Dumoulin or Maatta would suck - but you can sign someone like Alzner or Smith or Kulikov or Russell in FA and while they wouldn't be direct replacements, they'd be able to cover most of their minutes and role.

That said we're obviously not losing Dumoulin, and the only way I see Maatta leaving is if it's in a trade to bring in a better top 4D.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

If, and that's a big if, we land Duchene I have no idea where he'd play. His previous history with Sid, coupled with his speed/skill, make it a no-brainer to put him on Crosby's wing with Guentzel. But Duchene could be a phenomenal 3C for us as well.

Guentzel - Crosby - Sheary
Hagelin - Malkin - Kessel
Rust - Duchene - Hornqvist
Wilson - Rowney/XXXX - Archibald

 

[Riptide]

That's a pretty crappy justification to pay a middle pair defensemen top pair money. You overpay to keep someone like Dumoulin, who's imperative to the success of this D group. Schultz? Schultz is too flawed of a player for me to do that.

5.5m is NOT top pair money. And it hasn't been for a while.

There isn't a single established top pairing D who's 1 year away from being a UFA who's signing for 5.5m - none. Look at what Yandle signed for (6.35m). Look at what Shatty turned down (6m).

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Vegas is going to be treating the expansion draft like an auction, McPhee already said that. If Vegas takes Jarnkrok, he'd be fair game to be traded immediately.



Bonino isn't worth $4 million to anyone, let alone the Penguins. I really wish this idea that he's incredibly valuable and irreplaceable would just die off. Bonino is nothing that the Penguins couldn't replace.

People forget that before he came to Pittsburgh, Bonino was called a bad defensive player. It doesn't take a player to be great defensively to be able to kill penalties and be able to block shots. Rowney can do what Bonino does defensively minus the offense, and at like $600k, I think I'd rather have him there than Bonino at $4 million.

I didn't say Jarnkrok won't be available, I said it will take a heck of a lot to get him on that deal he's on.

And you mentioned Hanzal, he may be the best comparable, he doesn't score any more than Bonino, and he'll cost more. So what's the point in that?

If Thornton buys in to being a shut down center here, then try for him I guess. I just don't see that happening.

So in the end, you think the Pens are going to give Rowney Bonino's job? I am sure they don't agree with you. Rowney will compete for the 4C job with OS next year if he's even here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

5.5m is NOT top pair money. And it hasn't been for a while.

There isn't a single established top pairing D who's 1 year away from being a UFA who's signing for 5.5m - none. Look at what Yandle signed for (6.35m). Look at what Shatty turned down (6m).

I guess Matt Niskanen didn't sign for $5.75 million like 2 years ago.

I didn't say Jarnkrok won't be available, I said it will take a heck of a lot to get him on that deal he's on.

And you mentioned Hanzal, he may be the best comparable, he doesn't score any more than Bonino, and he'll cost more. So what's the point in that?

If Thornton buys in to being a shut down center here, then try for him I guess. I just don't see that happening.

You keep only mentioning those 3 guys. Why not any of the other guys? Why not Staal? Haula? Desharnais? Duchene?

So in the end, you think the Pens are going to give Rowney Bonino's job? I am sure they don't agree with you. Rowney will compete for the 4C job with OS next year if he's even here.

No, I said I'd rather just give Rowney the 3C spot than overpay for Bonino when the Penguins shouldn't be overpaying for guys like Bonino.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I guess Matt Niskanen didn't sign for $5.75 million like 2 years ago.

Matt Niskanen was not an established top pairing D when he signed in Washington.

No, I said I'd rather just give Rowney the 3C spot than overpay for Bonino when the Penguins shouldn't be overpaying for guys like Bonino.

I really really disagree with this. You're better off overpaying a decent 3C than not having a 3C. We don't make it out of round 2 or 3 with Rowney at 3C.

And again, that shouldn't be plan A, but Rowney at 3C should be something like plan W.

 

[Lustaf]

If, and that's a big if, we land Duchene I have no idea where he'd play. His previous history with Sid, coupled with his speed/skill, make it a no-brainer to put him on Crosby's wing with Guentzel. But Duchene could be a phenomenal 3C for us as well.

Guentzel - Crosby - Sheary
Hagelin - Malkin - Kessel
Rust - Duchene - Hornqvist
Wilson - Rowney/XXXX - Archibald

Who did we trade to get him in that scenario.?

 

[Ogrezilla]

Who did we trade to get him in that scenario.?

I suppose Maatta+Sprong+

 

[Empoleon8771]

Matt Niskanen was not an established top pairing D when he signed in Washington.

I don't know about that. He was phenomenal in his last season in Pittsburgh. I feel like just because defensemen get grossly overpaid in free agency, it doesn't mean that they're worth how much money they're getting paid. I wouldn't want Shattenkirk at over $5.5 million (and I'm even iffy on him at that price), but you know some dumb team like the Rangers is going to offer him $7 million on a long term deal. Ghost's contract extension basically set what I want to give Schultz and I'd probably stick to that. If he wants ridiculously more, I'd shop him and let another team pay him that much.

As an aside, is Shattenkirk even an established top pair defensemen? I'm honestly not sure about that, he was behind Pietrangelo for a really long time and then sucked on Washington.

I really really disagree with this. You're better off overpaying a decent 3C than not having a 3C. We don't make it out of round 2 or 3 with Rowney at 3C.

And again, that shouldn't be plan A, but Rowney at 3C should be something like plan W.

But the issue comes up when you realize that Rowney and trying to find a 3C is better than having Bonino at $4 million. There's really no reason the Penguins should settle on giving Bonino too much money, so I'd be at least fine if they put Rowney in there and actively looked for a more cost effective guy. They shouldn't be happy with Rowney as the 3C, but I'd rather go out and find a better option (assuming it wouldn't be insanely expensive to trade for) than just re-sign a bland and mediocre guy for too much money that we already have.

 

[Riptide]

I guess Matt Niskanen didn't sign for $5.75 million like 2 years ago.

No, I said I'd rather just give Rowney the 3C spot than overpay for Bonino when the Penguins shouldn't be overpaying for guys like Bonino.

5.75m is not 5.5m. And as Ogrezilla correctly pointed out, he wasn't considered a top pairing D when he left Pittsburgh and signed that contract in Washington.

You're not giving Bonino nearly enough credit if you think that Rowney can replace him. We're in back to back finals in part due to our very good center depth. And if we want a chance to come back here in the next couple of years, we're going to need someone who's significantly better than Rowney playing #3C.

 

[Empoleon8771]

5.75m is not 5.5m. And as Ogrezilla correctly pointed out, he wasn't considered a top pairing D when he left Pittsburgh and signed that contract in Washington.

Come on now

You're not giving Bonino nearly enough credit if you think that Rowney can replace him. We're in back to back finals in part due to our very good center depth. And if we want a chance to come back here in the next couple of years, we're going to need someone who's significantly better than Rowney playing #3C.

I don't think Rowney can replace Bonino, I said Rowney can do what Bonino can do defensively and the difference in their offense isn't worth $3.5 million or whatever it would be. If it came down to it, I'd pencil Rowney into the 3C spot and go exploring for a trade before I'd re-sign Bonino to a ridiculous amount of money.

 

[Riptide]

I don't know about that. He was phenomenal in his last season in Pittsburgh. I feel like just because defensemen get grossly overpaid in free agency, it doesn't mean that they're worth how much money they're getting paid. I wouldn't want Shattenkirk at over $5.5 million (and I'm even iffy on him at that price), but you know some dumb team like the Rangers is going to offer him $7 million on a long term deal. Ghost's contract extension basically set what I want to give Schultz and I'd probably stick to that. If he wants ridiculously more, I'd shop him and let another team pay him that much.

As an aside, is Shattenkirk even an established top pair defensemen? I'm honestly not sure about that, he was behind Pietrangelo for a really long time and then sucked on Washington.

As for Shatty, I don't think so - but there's stats that suggest he is a top pairing D. Personally I think he's more in the 2/3 range. I also do not see him getting 7m from anyone. 6-6.5m? Yeah probably. But even that will likely be pushing it if it's coming from a team that's expecting to do anything come playoff time. But if we had the chance, I'd absolutely pay him 6m and not really think twice about it.

Shop Schultz for what exactly? And more importantly, how do you plan on replacing him?

Remember, the moment Schultz isn't a Penguin, we will desperately need a #2RD - and ideally one who is a PMD. And if JS's replacement can't QB the PP, we'd need someone who can do that as well. Schultz checks off an awful lot of boxes for us - especially with Letang's habit of missing 10-20 games a season. Outside of Shattenkirk (who'll cost a lot more than JS will) there isn't a single D who comes close to this in FA. Hell I'm not even sure there's a pair of D you could sign who could fill the role that JS currently fills on this team.

 

[Penske]

What is Haula like as a 3C? Saw his named mentioned in trade a few times (for a 2nd round pick). I haven't seen him play.

 

[SEALBound]

If, and that's a big if, we land Duchene I have no idea where he'd play. His previous history with Sid, coupled with his speed/skill, make it a no-brainer to put him on Crosby's wing with Guentzel. But Duchene could be a phenomenal 3C for us as well.

Guentzel - Crosby - Sheary
Hagelin - Malkin - Kessel
Rust - Duchene - Hornqvist
Wilson - Rowney/XXXX - Archibald

Mother of god. If MAF goes out to LV and we get the 5.75mil in cap space, it's no big.

Could even send Hagelin out for a #5/6 plus a pick and get 2-3mil in more space. Have Sprong or Kuhnhackl fill in.

No idea what to do on defense then. Could likely keep Schultz but that'd be about it. We'd be looking at:

Dumo-Letang
Maatta-Schultz
Cole-Pouliot/Rudwedel

Yikes. Not sure we could afford more.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Cant find the link but someone mentioned that the Cap for next year has to be announced within the next week. Teams need to know what number they are working with before entering the expansion draft.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As for Shatty, I don't think so - but there's stats that suggest he is a top pairing D. Personally I think he's more in the 2/3 range. I also do not see him getting 7m from anyone. 6-6.5m? Yeah probably. But even that will likely be pushing it if it's coming from a team that's expecting to do anything come playoff time. But if we had the chance, I'd absolutely pay him 6m and not really think twice about it.

Yeah, I think that's a fair level to put Shattenkirk on. I wouldn't sign him at $6 million per season, but I think I'd go around that if it was in the high $5s. I just view Schultz to be a fringe #3/4, and I don't think the difference between what he deserves and what Shattenkirk deserves (probably what Niskanen got) is insignificant.

Shop Schultz for what exactly? And more importantly, how do you plan on replacing him?

Remember, the moment Schultz isn't a Penguin, we will desperately need a #2RD - and ideally one who is a PMD. And if JS's replacement can't QB the PP, we'd need someone who can do that as well. Schultz checks off an awful lot of boxes for us - especially with Letang's habit of missing 10-20 games a season. Outside of Shattenkirk (who'll cost a lot more than JS will) there isn't a single D who comes close to this in FA. Hell I'm not even sure there's a pair of D you could sign who could fill the role that JS currently fills on this team.

If we're trading Schultz, we're likely getting another defensemen back for him, wouldn't you think? I think the Penguins can find a better middle pair defensemen than Schultz and also have a bottom pair PPQB, at least in the sense that it's possible.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I don't know about that. He was phenomenal in his last season in Pittsburgh. I feel like just because defensemen get grossly overpaid in free agency, it doesn't mean that they're worth how much money they're getting paid. I wouldn't want Shattenkirk at over $5.5 million (and I'm even iffy on him at that price), but you know some dumb team like the Rangers is going to offer him $7 million on a long term deal. Ghost's contract extension basically set what I want to give Schultz and I'd probably stick to that. If he wants ridiculously more, I'd shop him and let another team pay him that much.

As an aside, is Shattenkirk even an established top pair defensemen? I'm honestly not sure about that, he was behind Pietrangelo for a really long time and then sucked on Washington.



But the issue comes up when you realize that Rowney and trying to find a 3C is better than having Bonino at $4 million. There's really no reason the Penguins should settle on giving Bonino too much money, so I'd be at least fine if they put Rowney in there and actively looked for a more cost effective guy. They shouldn't be happy with Rowney as the 3C, but I'd rather go out and find a better option (assuming it wouldn't be insanely expensive to trade for) than just re-sign a bland and mediocre guy for too much money that we already have.

The thing is, if we let them walk we have to replace them. So we will either be paying someone else too much as a free agent, trading assets to replace them, or gambling on someone we can sign cheaper. At what point is a bit of cap space worth saving assets or managing the risk of getting someone bad? If we let both Schultz and Bones go this summer, who do we replace them with? That's the question JR needs to answer before he decides what to do. And all of that is assuming these guys are even asking for too much.

If we're trading Schultz, we're likely getting another defensemen back for him, wouldn't you think? I think the Penguins can find a better middle pair defensemen than Schultz and also have a bottom pair PPQB, at least in the sense that it's possible.

I would think we'd be getting either someone worse than him, or someone else who isn't signed. Why would someone trade us anything else?

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thing is, if we let them walk we have to replace them. So we will either be paying someone else too much as a free agent, trading assets to replace them, or gambling on someone we can sign cheaper. At what point is a bit of cap space worth saving assets or managing the risk of getting someone bad? If we let both Schultz and Bones go this summer, who do we replace them with? That's the question JR needs to answer before he decides what to do. And all of that is assuming these guys are even asking for too much.

I don't think it's going to be a problem in Schultz's case, him chasing the money is what nearly got him run out of the league in the first place. He obviously wouldn't sign for nothing, but I'd bet he's actually a guy that would take less to stay here. I don't think he'd like to risk signing a huge contract with a team like Arizona only to go back to Jultz there.

Bonino is the guy I'm thinking is going to be asking for too much money, seeing how he hasn't made much over his NHL career and could probably be a passable 2C on a team like Nashville. In that case, the Penguins shouldn't match what a team desperate for a center will be offering Bonino. They should look elsewhere, even if they have to trade for a guy. If the Penguins are trading for a 3C, I'm going after guys like Haula, Jarnkrok, Sheahan (he's actually the guy I'd probably go after first, his value would definitely be low due to the season he just had) or Faksa.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I don't think it's going to be a problem in Schultz's case, him chasing the money is what nearly got him run out of the league in the first place. He obviously wouldn't sign for nothing, but I'd bet he's actually a guy that would take less to stay here. I don't think he'd like to risk signing a huge contract with a team like Arizona only to go back to Jultz there.

Bonino is the guy I'm thinking is going to be asking for too much money, seeing how he hasn't made much over his NHL career and could probably be a passable 2C on a team like Nashville. In that case, the Penguins shouldn't match what a team desperate for a center will be offering Bonino. They should look elsewhere, even if they have to trade for a guy. If the Penguins are trading for a 3C, I'm going after guys like Haula, Jarnkrok, Sheahan (he's actually the guy I'd probably go after first, his value would definitely be low due to the season he just had) or Faksa.

I agree with all of this. My only disagreement is that if push comes to shove, I think we're better off with Bones for half a mil too much than nobody. Same with Schultz, though I also think it's less likely to be an issue with him.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. **** is gonna go down quick after this season ends.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Are there any good FA's from Europe still left? I'm surprised we havent signed atleast one. Chicago still seems to keep getting all of them.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Are there any good FA's from Europe still left? I'm surprised we havent signed atleast one. Chicago still seems to keep getting all of them.

Vegas got a few didn't they?

 

[Riptide]

Yeah, I think that's a fair level to put Shattenkirk on. I wouldn't sign him at $6 million per season, but I think I'd go around that if it was in the high $5s. I just view Schultz to be a fringe #3/4, and I don't think the difference between what he deserves and what Shattenkirk deserves (probably what Niskanen got) is insignificant.

I get it - but we obviously just look at it differently. I'm not really concerned about slightly overpaying key players in important positions such as quality D and Cs. Wingers and depth D who are easier to replace? Yeah I'm setting a fairly strict budget and if they don't fit, I'd walk. But very good PMD or quality centers who are not easily replaceable? I'll overpay to get/keep them if I absolutely had to and look for savings elsewhere. And this is doubly so with the amount of games that Letang and Malkin/Crosby seem to miss yearly.

Schultz I'd put in that category. Same with Shattenkirk if he was willing to come here for something we could afford. And Bonino is very very close to that category - to the point that if we can't find a better option or things do not look promising when we get our FA talks, I'd probably move him there and suck it up and sign him.

If we're trading Schultz, we're likely getting another defensemen back for him, wouldn't you think? I think the Penguins can find a better middle pair defensemen than Schultz and also have a bottom pair PPQB, at least in the sense that it's possible.

We probably would be getting a D back. And yes in theory we could absolutely find a PPQB to play the 3rd pairing. But I doubt the D we'd be getting back would be better than Schultz, and I doubt they'd be checking the same boxes Schultz currently checks off. And given the scarcity of FA D who can QB the PP, I'm not really sure where we'd find this backup PPQB.

Like I said, Schultz checks off an awful lot of boxes for us to walk away from because he wants 1m (or whatever) more than some are comfortable giving him.