Future of the Calgary Flames

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

He’s been in the league so long that people don’t realize how young he is. A lot of good defensemen weren’t even rookies yet at his age.

He's also been one of the most sheltered defensemen in the NHL over the past three seasons (24th percentile in QoC, 3rd percentile in dzone starts), so how much can you really extrapolate from what you've seen so far? He's essentially been treated like a replacement level AHL quality defenseman so far throughout his career, atleast his deployment suggests as much. He's outperformed his usage by a bit to be fair but not so much so that you can definitively conclude anything meaningful.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Just using this as an example, don't freak out because of the teams, but the Leafs, Flyers, and Lightning have all graduated much more significant prospects to their NHL teams in terms of quality over the past couple of seasons and are still consensus top 15 prospect pools. I don't think graduation is really an excuse for anything.

In the last five years, the Flames have graduated Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Jankowski, Kulak, and Bennett. They also graduated Ferland, who they traded to Carolina for Lindholm and Hanifin, both of whom are super young. I count three first-liners, two second-liners, and two All-Stars in there.

In the pipe, the Flames have Mangiapane (who's very similar to Johnsson), Valimaki (very similar to Liljegren), Andersson, Dube, and Kylington.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

In the last five years, the Flames have graduated Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Jankowski, Kulak, and Bennett. They also graduated Ferland, who they traded to Carolina for Lindholm and Hanifin, both of whom are super young. I count three first-liners, two second-liners, and two All-Stars in there.

In the pipe, the Flames have Mangiapane (who's very similar to Johnsson), Valimaki (very similar to Liljegren), Andersson, Dube, and Kylington.

Right, and again, just as an example, the Lightning have graduated (or traded away) Gourde, Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, Sergachev, Point, Howden, Hajek, Gusev, Vasielevsky and still have Foote, Katchouk, Cirelli, Volkov, Raddysh, Stephens, Joseph, etc. The Leafs have graduated Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Hyman, Dermott, Johnsson, Kapanen, and still have Liljegren, Sandin, Bracco, Grundstrom, Korshkov, etc. Flyers essentially the same. I don't think Bennett or Jankowski are second liners by any measure and other teams have graduated more important players than the Flames have.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Right, and again, just as an example, the Lightning have graduated (or traded away) Gourde, Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, Sergachev, Point, Howden, Hajek, Gusev, Vasielevsky and still have Foote, Katchouk, Cirelli, Volkov, Raddysh, Stephens, Joseph, etc. The Leafs have graduated Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Hyman, Dermott, Johnsson, Kapanen, and still have Liljegren, Sandin, Bracco, Grundstrom, Korshkov, etc. Flyers essentially the same. I don't think Bennett or Jankowski are second liners by any measure and other teams have graduated more important players than the Flames have.

You're correct, they're third-liners for now. I was referring to Ferland and Lindholm.

 

[tarheelhockey]

He's also been one of the most sheltered defensemen in the NHL over the past three seasons (24th percentile in QoC, 3rd percentile in dzone starts), so how much can you really extrapolate from what you've seen so far? He's essentially been treated like a replacement level AHL quality defenseman so far throughout his career, atleast his deployment suggests as much. He's outperformed his usage by a bit to be fair but not so much so that you can definitively conclude anything meaningful.

He hasn’t been treated like that at all. When you’re playing the same side of the ice as Jaccob Slavin and Haydn Fleury you’re going to get offensive starts. It’s not like they’re actively trying to get him away from situations where he might have to play hockey.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

He hasn’t been treated like that at all. When you’re playing the same side of the ice as Jaccob Slavin and Haydn Fleury you’re going to get offensive starts. It’s not like they’re actively trying to get him away from situations where he might have to play hockey.

I'm just saying that was the reality of the situation, I don't know if he was actually perceived to be needing sheltering by Peters, but it was just the reality of the situation (regardless of whether it was depth on LD or not). I'm just saying he was sheltered so heavily, I don't know if you can read into his numbers or play much at all. All he's proven is he's slightly overqualified as a #5-6 D so far. Ramp up the quality of competition, ramp up the zone starts (although admittedly these don't matter too much, more just a "how does my coach perceive my defensive play" type thing) and I'll be impressed with how he plays at his age.

 

[DJJones]

What?

Smith was always a stop gap and Giordano is the only player of note over 30.

Once we sign tkachuk inflation will eat away at the cap space.

And ya our prospects are weak right now but were a ridiculously young team. We can survive a few years no problem.

 

[IPS]

I can't see the Flames making playoffs personally. They're in that very ugly place of no-man's land. No game-breaking talent on the roster whatsoever. And no, I don't believe Gaudreau is any sort of game-breaker.

 

[CgyFlamesftw]

What is the damn crap. Classic leaf fan who knows nothing about a western team. Even using Pronmans horrible prospect ranking, congrats.

 

[djpatm]

I can't see the Flames making playoffs personally. They're in that very ugly place of no-man's land. No game-breaking talent on the roster whatsoever. And no, I don't believe Gaudreau is any sort of game-breaker.

You're completely wrong.

 

[Deegee]

Not going to respond to most of the OP as others have more than addressed it already. Am going to talk about the radio part.

Of course Gaudreau would say he would be open to playing in Philadelphia on a Philadelphia radio station.

WTF was he supposed to say?

"Would you play in Philadelphia?" - dumb trap question asked by moron radio host
"No you stupid troll shut up" - Gaudreau

Not likely.

 

[CraigsList]

They have been a bubble team for years now it seems. However it seems like their "Window" might be closing before it was ever opened. Look at their most important players

- Gio going to be 35, no replacement for him. Brodie is not a #1 D and showed that last year. Hanifin is not going to be a #1 D. The replacement was going to be Hamilton but they inexplicably traded him away for going to museums.

- Mike Smith. Going to be 36 and injury prone. When in net he is good but how many games will he play? And when he either breaks down or retires in the next few years, they will be in a bad spot. Mike Smith is the closest they have come to replacing Kipper and the trend of stop gaps will likely continue into the future.

These two pieces declining over the next few years are going to sink the roster. Now, this is not to say that they do not have good pieces that are young. Mohahan is a solid 2nd line C, Tkachuk is a beauty. After that though? They have Gaudreau, who's future is questionable within the next few years as well as he approaches UFA. If Calgary keeps being a bubble team, we may see the next Tavares like situation, evidenced by this article by Sportsnet.

Flames' Gaudreau open to playing for hometown Flyers in future - Sportsnet.ca

"Calgary Flames winger Johnny Gaudreau, who grew up just outside of Philadelphia in Carneys Point, N.J., is apparently open to returning home to suit up for his boyhood club at some point in his career. The 23-year-old discussed the potential homecoming during an interview with a Philadelphia radio station "

Their depth isn't very much either when you consider those under 25 (As this thread is about in three years when the core guys have all left the team) there is not much there highlighted by a bust Bennett.

Their prospect pool is not much better, Ranked 29th in the entire NHL by the athletic.

This is a team that is going to be bad for a very long time in the coming years. They will not be bad enough to get any good picks and not be good enough to ever win more than a playoff round. This is going to be an organization with a few good pieces, but poor depth, no top end players, and a mediocre prospect cupboard. They will be a basement team for a very long time.

Do you agree or do you think they are able to replace these core pieces? With the lottery the way it is they might sneak a top 3 pick, but the chances are not great.

I have respected your posts as a Leafs fan, but come on dude. This whole post is garbage and an all time low for you.

No replacement for Gio? Hanifin, Valimaki, Andersson and Kylington have the potential to take over that #1D spot. The first two have a better chance of achieving that. Hamilton is starting to get overrated around these boards. Which is funny, considering that the dude was hella underrated when he wore the Flames sweater.

Mike Smith was always going to be a stopgap. He will always be considered one because we are not going to invest in him as our #1 for life. We've already tried goalie hunting in Ramo, Hiller, Elliott, etc. Now, we are receiving flack for trading for a goalie that we would only have for 2 seasons while we patiently wait until one of Rittich, Gillies, or even Parsons step up to the plate? No replacements? Yeah, right.

Now, we move on to Monahan. Sure, he's no Matthews or Tavares, but he's been a guy that has consistently done his job as a center and also puts up 30-30 seasons every year. I mean, what exactly does this guy have to do to receive the recognition he deserves? He put up .86PPG as a center, that's 26th in the league when you filter centers and have played 50+ games.

Now on to Johnny Gaudreau. Don't get me wrong, I don't see JG not playing with this team his whole career, but did you really pull up an article saying that he would love to play in Philly? Of course he would say that, he is from there. It's like me playing for a team that is not my hometown, and then some journalist asking me if I'd love to play for the hockey team that represents my home state. He's signed for another 4 years, if he really wants to move away from Calgary then we can trade him while we still can. Even if he left, we still have a Tkachuk that could take his place as the 1st line LW.

Don't even get me started on Bennett. He's not played up to his potential, but we don't need him to like the rest of the hockey world thinks that we do. He'll do just fine in his role as the third line LW behind Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Simple as that.

Lastly, our prospect pool is going to be trash when our top prospect graduates from being a prospect every year. Have you noticed that? Probably not, so I'll break it down for you so that you can have yourself a visual.

Since 2013, when we were officially rebuilding:
Monahan (13-14)
Gaudreau (14-15)
Bennett (15-16)
Tkachuk (16-17)
Jankowski (17-18)

With plans of another prospect graduating on the defensive end (Andersson or Kylington).

We've been a hockey team that has not had to rely on top 5 picks in any draft to get us competitive. I can say that since Bennett hasn't played like a 4th OA pick. You can call me cherry picking stats since Monahan and Tkachuk are #6 OA in their respective drafts, but you have better odds of getting a better player in the top 3 than the top 10.

I suggest, Kamiccolo, to do your research next time rather that just spewing information about a team that you really don't know about. It's pretty easy to start getting a good team when you got to pick a fantastic winger after 2 fantastic centers in 2015, an all star center in 2016, and a UFA in 2018. I know there's more to your team that just that, but those moves make a big difference.

To conclude, the Flames have a great chance of making the playoffs with how open the Pacific Division is. You cannot predict who is going to come out on top. We have a team that has all of their players locked 6.75m and under. Our biggest question mark is one that you did not even touch on: Our coaching. It will depend on Peters, Huska, and Ward to see how this team will do in the upcoming season. All hope is not lost in Calgary, but thanks for being concerned.

 

[CalgarySnow]

My only worry is the goal tending issue, if Smith goes down not sure Rittich is good enough yet to pick up the slack

 

[Anglesmith]

Weird take. The Flames have one forward over 30: Derek Ryan (Frolik and Neal are both 30 years old). They have one defenceman over 30, and their starting goalie is the oldest player on the team. To suggest that a team that young has a window closing is such an absurd take it's hard to believe it's genuine. The rest of the post raises further doubt. Gaudreau's radio quote is similar to Doughty's comments about the Leafs (that is to say, only relevant if you're scraping the barrel for problems). Calling Sam Bennett a bust is silly given he's already an NHL regular. Calling them a basement team when they finished 9th from the bottom in a down year (where they were in the playoff race near the end of the season before Monny got hurt and Gaudreau left the team for his father) and then made improvements doesn't seem well thought-out on your part, but that's in line with the rest of the post.

It's valid to suggest the Flames have a poor prospect pool at the moment, because we don't really have any high-end forward prospects left that don't carry question marks. As a Flames fan, I wish that we had a stronger prospect base, but at the same time, the reason it is so weak right now is mostly because all the top picks have gone into the NHL roster, either as graduated prospects or as trade chips to put together the strong, young core we have on the team. It's dangerous to say "we don't need prospects" but with the tiny amount of roster turnover the Flames look forward to having over the next few years, and given they currently have an NHL roster where players are slotted appropriately, it shouldn't be a problem. We have a few blue chips on the back-end where we will have some openings, and you would hope that whenever Giordano decides to not be an absolute stud #1 defenceman, one of those guys will decide to become one themselves.

If you're looking around the league for teams that have a window closing, picking one of the youngest in the league with a solid foundation is a very bizarre decision.

 

[Anglesmith]

Not going to respond to most of the OP as others have more than addressed it already. Am going to talk about the radio part.

Of course Gaudreau would say he would be open to playing in Philadelphia on a Philadelphia radio station.

WTF was he supposed to say?

"Would you play in Philadelphia?" - dumb trap question asked by moron radio host
"No you stupid troll shut up" - Gaudreau

Not likely.

"That's a clown question, bro."

 

[BM14]

Yeah, why aren't the Flames more like the Leafs?

$$$

 

[Royal Thunder]

I actually really like their roster for this year. That said, another wishy washy season and I might start to doubt them. But on paper I think they upgraded a lot

 

[blankall]

They need to stop spinning their tires and pick a direction. In this case a rebuild. They trade their first for a win now move and then trade a prime aged D for a younger one. They can't make up their minds. They should sell off these guys and recoup their value as best as possible and retool over the next few years.

No.

They are trying to win now. Hamilton was traded for reasons to do with Hamilton, not team direction. The return they got was great, as it included a promising young forward too. Most teams who part with a player like Hamilton who isn't working out, get much worse returns.

 

[Tkachuky]

I can't see the Flames making playoffs personally. They're in that very ugly place of no-man's land. No game-breaking talent on the roster whatsoever. And no, I don't believe Gaudreau is any sort of game-breaker.

THis is the dumbest post (ready for mod infraction) I have read this year RE: Flames.

How the F is Gaudreau not a game breaker?

 

[olli]

I can't see the Flames making playoffs personally. They're in that very ugly place of no-man's land. No game-breaking talent on the roster whatsoever. And no, I don't believe Gaudreau is any sort of game-breaker.

Just be honest. The leafs have all the "game-breaking" talents in the league.

 

[olli]

THis is the dumbest post (ready for mod infraction) I have read this year RE: Flames.

How the F is Gaudreau not a game breaker?

He's also said Provorov hasn't shown any signs of improvement since he was drafted.

 

[tucker3434]

I think they might get stuck in a Minnesota-like rut and have trouble getting over the hump. They’re too good to be gifted a franchise player at the top of the draft. They’re going to need to find another gem like Gaudreau. I doubt that’s anyone currently in the pool.

 

[Mr Positive]

They have been the most aggressive team in the league for the past few years. That is partly due to their GM being very effective, but also to that team being very flawed. They have been a good team with a good future for a while now, and yet without real results to back it up. They should be better, and so the GM has been switching out pieces hoping that the new mix will start clicking.

The Hanifin-Lindholm trade was smart. Their defense is deep, so losing Hamilton is no huge loss. It will allow Hamonic to get more opportunity, and he should pick up some slack offensively. Getting Hanifin gives their D a future-focus. I don't expect Hanifin to be that great for them this season, but in a few years he should replace an aging Giordano very well. Getting Lindholm helps to address what could be their core problem, at center. Imo Monahan is more of a high end 2c than a 1c. Perhaps having many 2c quality centers on the team will buoy things. If Lindholm is used as a winger, maybe by having both him and Neal will help their existing centers be better.

But still, their big problem is that their problem isn't clear. Like for the Oilers for instance, I know what our team's holes are very definitively. With Calgary, they should have been better than this for a while now, and it's not so clear what the problem is. Like, even with Monahan, it's not like he's bad on their top line, and there have been top teams who didn't have that great 1C, like the Blues and Preds. With the Blues in particular, they have also had issues in net for years, but despite last season, they always seemed to be high achievers.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

The OP is typically a hot take artist, and his points here exaggerate it a lot, but he is scraping some truth.

The issue they've had the past couple years is forward depth and goaltending. Goaltending has improved (but is a question mark due to age) and forward depth has improved with some FA signings. But long term it doesn't look too good considering the prospect pool is near the bottom of the league, and they are going to continue to need quality depth young players on ELCs to compete because that's how you compete in the modern day NHL.

 

[Advanced stats]

I do not agree with @Kamiccolo that the flames will be bad for years and their entering a circle of decline. They have too many good pieces for that.

I also don't think things will be getting much better for Calgary. They don't have a lot of legitimate talent coming up the pipeline, and building around 2 great wingers isn't a recipe for success.
They have holes and weaknesses now, and they'll have holes and weaknesses in the future that will hurt them.
To win a cup/ go far in the playoffs, you either need great center depth with elite top end talent, or great defensive depth with elite top end talent.
The flames have neither.

I'd wager that the flames will finish in the 10-20 range in the standings for most of the next 5 seasons. Thus the eternal cycle of mediocrity.