Future of minor league hockey & the echl

[Centrum Hockey]

Things have stabilized a bit in minor pro hockey, though, and this period of the last 4-5 years is the most remarkably stable I can really remember it.

Of those, a handful were replaced by AHL teams (and the ECHL has moved into several ex-AHL markets). At that time, the UHL/IHL2 and CHL both existed as separate leagues. Their stronger franchises are now in the ECHL. The North American recession of 2007-09 was really hard on minor pro teams at all levels, but after increased NHL involvement in the ECHL-AHL-NHL ladder and consolidation of the "AA" pro leagues from five to one in a 15-year span, things have stabilized quite a bit and because of the NHL's involvement, likely will remain fairly stable.

Stockton and Bakersfield seemed to care more for their echl teams than their Ahl ones a local connection must have been important for their fanbases Calgary should have looked into keeping the thunder name for the ahl team

 

[JMCx4]

Stockton and Bakersfield seemed to care more for their echl teams than their Ahl ones a local connection must have been important for their fanbases Calgary should have looked into keeping the thunder name for the ahl team

Stockton ticket prices remained relatively stable in the ECHL-to-AHL transition (maybe a $1 per seat increase), and the first two years of Heat attendance wasn't that much lower than the final years of the ECHL team. But attendance has taken a dive the last two seasons, which could indicate forces beyond hockey. I'm not convinced the name change had a significant influence on this downward trend.

Bakersfield on the other hand did bump up their ticket prices significantly in the transition (looks like $3-$4 per ticket across the board), but the Condors' reported attendance numbers have actually increased with the switch to AHL hockey. This might be due to a doubling-down of their always creative marketing strategies, but whatever the reason the Condors look healthy from an attendance viewpoint.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Stockton ticket prices remained relatively stable in the ECHL-to-AHL transition (maybe a $1 per seat increase), and the first two years of Heat attendance wasn't that much lower than the final years of the ECHL team. But attendance has taken a dive the last two seasons, which could indicate forces beyond hockey. I'm not convinced the name change had a significant influence on this downward trend.

Bakersfield on the other hand did bump up their ticket prices significantly in the transition (looks like $3-$4 per ticket across the board), but the Condors' reported attendance numbers have actually increased with the switch to AHL hockey. This might be due to a doubling-down of their always creative marketing strategies, but whatever the reason the Condors look healthy from an attendance viewpoint.

the guy running the heat is the same person who thought it whould be a good idea to raise prices in adirondack when they went down a league to the echl StocktonHeat.com | Brian Petrovek Ticket prices increase for ECHL team

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

the guy running the heat is the same person who thought it whould be a good idea to raise prices in adirondack when they went down a league to the echl StocktonHeat.com | Brian Petrovek Ticket prices increase for ECHL team

Centrum you do know where Petrovek came from

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Centrum you do know where Petrovek came from

Portland

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Portland

and he was fired

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Things have stabilized a bit in minor pro hockey, though, and this period of the last 4-5 years is the most remarkably stable I can really remember it.

Of those, a handful were replaced by AHL teams (and the ECHL has moved into several ex-AHL markets). At that time, the UHL/IHL2 and CHL both existed as separate leagues. Their stronger franchises are now in the ECHL. The North American recession of 2007-09 was really hard on minor pro teams at all levels, but after increased NHL involvement in the ECHL-AHL-NHL ladder and consolidation of the "AA" pro leagues from five to one in a 15-year span, things have stabilized quite a bit and because of the NHL's involvement, likely will remain fairly stable.

MAYBE, that's a maybe. Atleast in the AHL you have a lot of NHL ownerships. So I mean theyre bleeding red anyway. But the NHL is probably the league with the least billionaire owners. Not that the number matters, the money isn't real, they aren't really billionaires, it's all based on equities. Another 08-09 isn't unrealistic, that recession really never ended, they kept rates at 0 for like 9 years. Just started raising them but all of the signs are there. A couple of the major stocks last month were the worst since October 08. You also have to look at all of the year yields which are all nose diving. That and the housing market would worry me.

It's not so much that there was a consolidation, a lot of places got wiped out. This made a consoliodation possible. If a level suffers it will be AA. Most of these teams are not NHL owned. Trenton was when they became the Devils. The Kings I think at one point had a stake in the Royals.

The quality of play has suffered with the NHL's involvement in the keague's though. The games look like free skate practices. Not all of these former ECHL markets are embracing the down level.

I think the ECHL needs its CHL white knight in shining armor like Horn Chen of Global who owned like half the league. I do think if something happens which is likely that the ECHL would be hurt. Sure you can write loses off in your tax refund but most of your ECHL owners are nothing but small multi millionaires. The kind of people it would hurt most and they probably don't have any major value liquid assets to their names like your billionaires who will probably honestly only get richer again. Unless they doubled the number of contracts an organization can have under contract the ECHL just holds no true value to the NHL's future. It's only small value is you can stash remaining contracts and bodies who just aren't cutting it.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The ECHL will have no more than 27 teams (the current) number next season. No new entries are on the horizon either.

I'll guess that 1,2 or 3 teams will not return next season. There are too many attendance trouble spots to realistically think that no one will pack it in after this season.

 

[CANADIENSFAN90]

what three teams?

 

[JMCx4]

... I'll guess that 1,2 or 3 teams will not return next season. There are too many attendance trouble spots to realistically think that no one will pack it in after this season.

Looking at season-to-date attendance numbers for the bottom 10 ticket sellers this year (and remember first half #s are always low), the only team that concerns me purely based on attendance drops is Manchester. Norfolk could implode under its own history at any time, but not solely by attendance decreases (just another excuse). The ECHL at large has a strong impetus to keep their numbers stable - and eventually grow - in the form of their desire to be considered a third true partner in the NHL-AHL affiliation scheme. So barring a catastrophic franchise collapse that the rest of the BOGs separately or collectively can't prop up, I don't see anything less than a 27-team lineup for them in 2019-20.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Looking at season-to-date attendance numbers for the bottom 10 ticket sellers this year (and remember first half #s are always low), the only team that concerns me purely based on attendance drops is Manchester. Norfolk could implode under its own history at any time, but not solely by attendance decreases (just another excuse). The ECHL at large has a strong impetus to keep their numbers stable - and eventually grow - in the form of their desire to be considered a third true partner in the NHL-AHL affiliation scheme. So barring a catastrophic franchise collapse that the rest of the BOGs separately or collectively can't prop up, I don't see anything less than a 27-team lineup for them in 2019-20.

There's certainly has to be some concern, though. They have made some solid choices in expanding into markets since the ECHL-AHL switch, which is something they probably didn't have much control over. Maine is doing pretty okay and Newfoundland started out of the gate very well and has since slowed a bit. Some of the attendance number bottom feeders have seen their trend increase. Adirondack has increased in every season, Norfolk has seen an increase this year. But, there are some worrying numbers. Wheeling has been bottom for quite some time and they can't keep it going for too much longer. Kalamazoo has seen some steady decreases and so has Rapid City and Reading while Manchester has seen even bigger decreases in their shorter history. I know it isn't possible for every team to be like Toledo and Fort Wayne, but there have to be some worried looks at the attendance trends.

 

[Royalsflagrunner77]

I know what hurt Reading was when the new owner ship took over there was a ticket price not bad at first still affordable . Then the following year the ticket master fees increase for online purchases averaging $20 on the average cost per ticket a family of 4 for the cheapest seats has to fork out close to $100 to get in the door . Let alone food and the $5 parking . The team hasn't adjusted to that at all and its killing them . especially with Lehigh and Hershey being so close and some of their ticket options being cheaper its killing them.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

what three teams?

First, I want to say that I don't wish ill on any team in the ECHL in terms of their survival. I feel quite fortunate the the Cyclones are very stable now. We just drew over 28,000 in a 3 game stretch and followed that up with almost 4,000 last night on a Wednesday.

I don't put much stock into announced numbers. I've been to enough ECHL, AHL and NHL arenas to know that a lot of teams juice numbers. The one specific I'll offer right now is the former Dayton Bombers. In their last season, their announced attendance was 3600 per game. Anyone who went to games knew that was not true. After they folded, the head of the Nutter Center (where they played) revealed to the Dayton Daily News what their drop count (number of people actually in the building) and paid attendance numbers were for that season. Drop count was around 1900 and the paid number was barely over 1,000.

The Cyclones, on the other hand, had a game this season where there were over 9,000 in the building, but the announced number was almost 1,000 less due to the number of comped tickets that night (some charity as best I recall received most of them). The Cyclones are very unusual in how they report attendance-not only for the ECHL, but the AHL and NHL as well.

I'll throw out two teams I think that are in trouble. Brampton's attendance numbers are a joke. A fellow Cyclones attendance obsessive said that an announced crowd of 2500 on Sat Nov 3 was accurate-if you dropped the 2 from the number. Brampton gets a subsidy from the city, but if numbers are as bad as I am figuring, that subsidy (I believe it's roughly $500,000 per season) won't be enough to keep the team going. I'm not saying they'll pull the plug after this season, but it would hardly be a shocker if they did. The Greater Toronto Area is saturated with hockey and the lack of an affiliation with the Leafs/Marlies probably is fatal. I have no idea how Brampton has failed to pull that off over the past several seasons. I would have thought that to be priority #1, A non Leafs affiliated ECHL team in that market is bound to fail.

Rapid City's announced numbers have gone from 3800 in its first ECHL season in 2014-15 to the 2500 level this season. Numbers have declined every year since they've been in the "E". The trend line is terrible. With Colorado moving to the AHL, they're also even more isolated geographically from other ECHL cities. I know nothing about the ownership or their arena deal, so this might be a lame guess.

**I picked these two out of a larger number of teams I think are on thin ice because I can't recall any postings on this site from anyone who identified as a fan of either team.

I hope I'm wrong about the league losing a few teams this season, but their are too many announcing numbers in the 3,000 range and given the common practice of fudging numbers, I'm guessing that there are too many teams dropping $1 million or so per season for all of them to survive. Even deep pocket owners get sick of subsidizing losing propositions.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Looking at season-to-date attendance numbers for the bottom 10 ticket sellers this year (and remember first half #s are always low), the only team that concerns me purely based on attendance drops is Manchester. Norfolk could implode under its own history at any time, but not solely by attendance decreases (just another excuse). The ECHL at large has a strong impetus to keep their numbers stable - and eventually grow - in the form of their desire to be considered a third true partner in the NHL-AHL affiliation scheme. So barring a catastrophic franchise collapse that the rest of the BOGs separately or collectively can't prop up, I don't see anything less than a 27-team lineup for them in 2019-20.

I hope that you are right and no teams fold this off season.

If the ECHL is going to form that 1-1-1 relationship with the NHL and AHL, I'm not aware of any formal progress that's been made regarding that. Are there any statements from the NHL or ECHL that have been made about this?

FWIW, I've got mixed feelings about this. The brand of hockey-not the skill level-played in the ECHL is more enjoyable to me in many ways than the current NHL. Play can still get chippy and fights are commonplace. The NHL has devolved into a non fighting and little hitting league. That may work in the long term in the NHL, but I don't think that non physical hockey is a winning game plan for the AA level. A strong affiliation with the NHL will probably bring that to the ECHL.

 

[JMCx4]

... Wheeling has been bottom for quite some time and they can't keep it going for too much longer. ...

Wish I had a nickel for every time in the last 10 years I've heard a hockey fan who doesn't live in Wheeling make such a pronouncement.

 

[JMCx4]

... If the ECHL is going to form that 1-1-1 relationship with the NHL and AHL, I'm not aware of any formal progress that's been made regarding that. Are there any statements from the NHL or ECHL that have been made about this?

Not to my knowledge. As business usually goes with the NHL owners, it will be up to the ECHL BOGs to self-motivate and sync up with the AHL & NHL team numbers. It's a tough goal considering the lower tier hockey business climate in North America, but previous ECHL commissioners have cited it. So until a new commish dismisses it, the wish is still on their lips.

 

[JMCx4]

... I'll throw out two teams I think that are in trouble. Brampton's attendance numbers are a joke. A fellow Cyclones attendance obsessive said that an announced crowd of 2500 on Sat Nov 3 was accurate-if you dropped the 2 from the number. Brampton gets a subsidy from the city, but if numbers are as bad as I am figuring, that subsidy (I believe it's roughly $500,000 per season) won't be enough to keep the team going. I'm not saying they'll pull the plug after this season, but it would hardly be a shocker if they did. The Greater Toronto Area is saturated with hockey and the lack of an affiliation with the Leafs/Marlies probably is fatal. I have no idea how Brampton has failed to pull that off over the past several seasons. I would have thought that to be priority #1, A non Leafs affiliated ECHL team in that market is bound to fail.

Rapid City's announced numbers have gone from 3800 in its first ECHL season in 2014-15 to the 2500 level this season. Numbers have declined every year since they've been in the "E". The trend line is terrible. With Colorado moving to the AHL, they're also even more isolated geographically from other ECHL cities. I know nothing about the ownership or their arena deal, so this might be a lame guess.

**I picked these two out of a larger number of teams I think are on thin ice because I can't recall any postings on this site from anyone who identified as a fan of either team. ...

So you figured you could speculate freely without fear of rebuttal?

Rapid City is another example of a hockey team (besides Wheeling) who have been rumored to be on their death bed for many years. The Rush signed a 10-year lease last May with the city for RPCC tenancy. Their short-term milestone has two more seasons after this one, to see if the lease agreement continues. So allow them another couple of years to give it their best shot.

Brampton's timeline is shorter, this being Year 3 of their latest agreement with the city. Certainly one situation to watch come spring. But I'd contend that moving the franchise to another Canadian city - maybe even within GTA - would be business as usual for lower level hockey up there. Plenty of ice rinks, plenty of hockey fans, plenty of sponsors very familiar with the product.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So you figured you could speculate freely without fear of rebuttal?

Rapid City is another example of a hockey team (besides Wheeling) who have been rumored to be on their death bed for many years. The Rush signed a 10-year lease last May with the city for RPCC tenancy. Their short-term milestone has two more seasons after this one, to see if the lease agreement continues. So allow them another couple of years to give it their best shot.

Brampton's timeline is shorter, this being Year 3 of their latest agreement with the city. Certainly one situation to watch come spring. But I'd contend that moving the franchise to another Canadian city - maybe even within GTA - would be business as usual for lower level hockey up there. Plenty of ice rinks, plenty of hockey fans, plenty of sponsors very familiar with the product.

I welcome information that I don't have.

Given the the Brampton agreement is in its final year, I'd think that a decision probably has already been made about next season. I'll lean toward this being the Beast's last year. I guess they could go to another Canadian market, but I just don't see the ECHL product being very popular in Canada-especially in Ontario with the vast number of OHL teams. Newfoundland is a bit of an outpost and the ECHL could be a good fit there. I hope so. Travel costs would be a long term concern.

A $3,000 per game reduction in rent is helpful for RC, but it really doesn't change the overall equation much. I'd still keep them on an endangered list. The attendance trend line suggests that the product cycle of the Rush is reaching an end. The article stated that the "newness had worn off". If the attendance numbers had leveled off, that would be one thing. The continual decline is not a very hopeful sign.

Thanks again for your information. I don't keep up on franchise movement issues like I used to. Now the bug is returning. Just what I needed. More time on the internet following hockey. Your fault.

 

[mk80]

There's certainly has to be some concern, though. They have made some solid choices in expanding into markets since the ECHL-AHL switch, which is something they probably didn't have much control over. Maine is doing pretty okay and Newfoundland started out of the gate very well and has since slowed a bit. Some of the attendance number bottom feeders have seen their trend increase. Adirondack has increased in every season, Norfolk has seen an increase this year. But, there are some worrying numbers. Wheeling has been bottom for quite some time and they can't keep it going for too much longer. Kalamazoo has seen some steady decreases and so has Rapid City and Reading while Manchester has seen even bigger decreases in their shorter history. I know it isn't possible for every team to be like Toledo and Fort Wayne, but there have to be some worried looks at the attendance trends.

Kalamazoo in my opinion can be considered relatively healthy, they are owned by an entertainment/ hospitality group that operates a number of offerings in that area including the Wings Event Center, the wings themselves, and even the entire practice facility, plus a huge hotel/ convention center.

 

[crimsonace]

Kalamazoo is owned by the same group that owns Wings Event Center, and has made some significant improvements to the building.

Wheeling is publicly-owned, which also (IIRC) runs the arena.

Rapid City is geographically isolated, but the cost of living is also fairly low and it's the only winter professional team in the Mt. Rushmore area. It's an important asset to the community. The only other really good option for them would be the USHL, but even then, it would be a bit of a geographic outlier.

Brampton is in a very good spot to be able to recruit/sign players, given the proximity of a number of guys in SW Ontario as it is.

Attendance only tells part of the story. Back in the old IHL days, some teams reported gigantic attendance numbers, but were gushing money because they were papering the house. A team with relatively low attendance numbers but good revenue streams from advertising, other events, et al, will do well. It's about the business opportunities, revenue streams and profitability of the franchise.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

has it been any different losing Colorado and to a lesser extent QC, because there doesn't seem to be a dominant franchise that's been the center of the E, IMO?

 

[Centrum Hockey]

There's certainly has to be some concern, though. They have made some solid choices in expanding into markets since the ECHL-AHL switch, which is something they probably didn't have much control over. Maine is doing pretty okay and Newfoundland started out of the gate very well and has since slowed a bit. Some of the attendance number bottom feeders have seen their trend increase. Adirondack has increased in every season, Norfolk has seen an increase this year. But, there are some worrying numbers. Wheeling has been bottom for quite some time and they can't keep it going for too much longer. Kalamazoo has seen some steady decreases and so has Rapid City and Reading while Manchester has seen even bigger decreases in their shorter history. I know it isn't possible for every team to be like Toledo and Fort Wayne, but there have to be some worried looks at the attendance trends.

Manchester needs a new name and a new affiliate

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Manchester needs a new name and a new affiliate

IT'LL LIKELY NEVER happen as long as the Kings are committed there, Centrum

 

[wildcat48]

I don’t think Manchester needed to change its name. I think the Kings did a terrible job in preparing for the switch from the AHL to the ECHL. Frankly, I think they were disingenuous. They attempted to pass off the ECHL Monarchs as the same as the AHL Monarchs and in the process raised the prices. They should have involved the community more in the switch by inviting them to vote on a new color scheme or bringing back the original color scheme. Maybe update the logo, but just to pass off everything as if nothing happened has killed them at the gate.
That said, I think the Monarchs will have a chance to fix some of their mistakes. The Bruins affiliation will be available this year, and it would be a chance for the Manchester to get a fresh start with a new color scheme and really get the community involved. If not, I think this franchise is in trouble long term.

The only team that I know that is potentially playing its last season is Brampton. They missed a chance to be affiliated with the Leafs, and with the saturation of hockey in that area its just unimaginable how they could fix things and start drawing 3,000 a game. It’s a great arena. It’s perfect for ECHL hockey, but the GTA is a hard sell unless it’s affiliated with the Leafs.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I don’t think Manchester needed to change its name. I think the Kings did a terrible job in preparing for the switch from the AHL to the ECHL. Frankly, I think they were disingenuous. They attempted to pass off the ECHL Monarchs as the same as the AHL Monarchs and in the process raised the prices. They should have involved the community more in the switch by inviting them to vote on a new color scheme or bringing back the original color scheme. Maybe update the logo, but just to pass off everything as if nothing happened has killed them at the gate.
That said, I think the Monarchs will have a chance to fix some of their mistakes. The Bruins affiliation will be available this year, and it would be a chance for the Manchester to get a fresh start with a new color scheme and really get the community involved. If not, I think this franchise is in trouble long term.

The only team that I know that is potentially playing its last season is Brampton. They missed a chance to be affiliated with the Leafs, and with the saturation of hockey in that area its just unimaginable how they could fix things and start drawing 3,000 a game. It’s a great arena. It’s perfect for ECHL hockey, but the GTA is a hard sell unless it’s affiliated with the Leafs.

IT'S ALMOST LIKE why weren't the other fanbases/teams told/informed that LA, and to a minor extent San Jose, did the same thing to Worcester that happened with Manchester and Ontario, even though there was little to prevent that from happening but will Manchester accept Boston as an affiliate and not have it cost them the franchise outright the way it cost Portland in 1991-92....

out here, we never saw QC or Colorado in their prime so that's where I am right now, and the issues as to where the E is heading, has there been any pushback from losing likely the most dominant franchise in recent history as Colorado was the last 4-5 years