Future of minor league hockey & the echl

[Kometsman]

The ECHL - Premier 'AA' Hockey League


now some teams wont last forever with those numbers & I honestly don't see the nhl investing more $$ at the echl aa level in the long run I see the echl getting smaller or going independent or balancing out the rules where its more equal between affiliation teams & independent & the roster rules are less favored towards an affiliation

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[JMCx4]

What're "those numbers" you're talking about, K-man?

 

[Kometsman]

If I had to guess if your averaging 3,500 or less per game your probably not making money also may depend on market & with the nhl on a 50 contract limit & even some of their teams on the losing end of $$ I don’t see the nhl putting more $$$ into the echl any time soon that’s what the ahl is for & the nhl isn’t the nfl so they have no need to

 

[kij]

You are right that 3500 fans plus league average sponsorships are probably the break even point. Many owners do still own these teams for the love of the game and a small loss (year) is acceptable to an extent as a tax write off. That loss can be turned into possibly double in a tax write off if said owner has other sources of income (The American Tax system is messed up). The NHL very rarely invests in the ECHL because very few players on NHL contracts get sent down that low. Teams can hold 50 contracts; 23 in the NHL, 23 in the AHL, and many contracted players are in the CHL and Europe as well. Outside of a few draft busts and slumping young players, not many players on NHL contracts are in the ECHL. ECHL teams do need the AHL affiliations to survive. It gives players hope for a call up as well as players that get sent down tend to become high quality ECHL players.

 

[Nightsquad]

I have to agree with others who dont see an increase in NHL investment in the ECHL. The NHL has invested much in the AHL but within the last year alone has disinvested in the ECHL already.

This started way back with the Devils organization when they bought, then sold their ECHL Trenton Devils years back. They tried this trend, and it failed. It didnt help that south Jersey is Flyers country. The experiment became a headache and money drain. Bottom line is the NHL doesnt care for putting fans in seats in AHL markets let alone need headaches of running ECHL teams.

Adirondack, Manchester, and Norfolk all were initially owned and operated by NHL organizations. It wasnt long before these clubs were sold by their respective parent clubs. Those moves signalled to me that large NHL investment wasnt going to materialize.

The NHL needed to invest in AHL clubs so they could gain better control for development purposes. AHL ownership groups were concerned over on ice performance and filling their arenas, those concerns are not NHL owned AHL club's priorities.

Selling tickets in AHL markets let alone ECHL markets are the last thing NHL teams care about in terms of development and depth, to them its a headache. The Devils organization dumped their ECHL club in Trenton, then finally out claused their arrangement in Albany with a no loss and no headache deal in Binghamton. I think the NHL ownerships selling off their franchises in Adirondack, Manchester, and Norfolk over the last year or two was a big indication.

 

[Kometsman]

Something has got to give here

 

[JungleJON]

What is wrong with Atlanta? A little over 900 fans tonight. Much have been a big snow storm, what 1/2 an inch? They have to be the biggest loser of attendance so far this season.

 

[210]

What is wrong with Atlanta? A little over 900 fans tonight. Much have been a big snow storm, what 1/2 an inch? They have to be the biggest loser of attendance so far this season.

A half inch of snow in a place that doesn't usually get snow keeps people at home. Gwinnett County was under a winter weather warning for just 2-4 inches of predicted snowfall.

 

[JMCx4]

A half inch of snow in a place that doesn't usually get snow keeps people at home. Gwinnett County was under a winter weather warning for just 2-4 inches of predicted snowfall.

Agreed. It will be a generation or more before most Atlanta area residents forget the massive shutdown of the roadways during the storm of late January 2014. Until then, any businesses like hockey teams counting on income through the winter months will have to "weather the storm" on occasion.

 

[PCSPounder]

I'll go a different direction here because of recent events. If you saw what I just posted on the AHL page, you'll know where I'm going... but there's another twist to add.

It starts in Sacramento. Sacramento State has talked about a new on-campus arena for, well, decades now. An article from last May mentioned that the new athletic director plans to jump-start the process. BTW, they're talking about an arena not just for the school (capacity 5,000), but bringing in the G-League team currently playing in Reno, and possibly minor league hockey.

I found that article because the whisper I heard today is that the San Jose Barracuda would move to Sacramento if it's built with that capability. Thing is, that's too many teams into one building (because you have to figure volleyball and women's basketball move because equality of opportunity) and an alignment like that when basketball will be the main tenant gets awkward.

Besides, the Calgary Flames are doing their usual job of burning a market. Stockton has seen better days with the ECHL Thunder. The game I saw (on a Saturday) last year was, dare I say, morgue-ish, and it makes more sense to me that Stockton changes affiliations or effects a sale so that they'll be with the Sharks when all is said and done.

Now... footsy between the NHL and Seattle means another AHL team in about 4-5 years time. The Seattle area already has two WHL teams (Thunderbirds, Everett Silvertips). I can't see both teams surviving in tandem with the NHL's arrival, but I DO see AHL people looking at Everett and wanting in. I think that's a logical result (not one I'd bet all-in on, mind you). That enables the Canucks to move their AHL team to Abbotsford finally. And if Calgary and Stockton divorce, then it's a matter of the Flames finding an arena in that region to get going... or would they try to upset the WHL apple cart more than I'm already suggesting.

Is Boise in play? Utah? Those are key questions in these scenarios.

Thing is... remember the CHL lawsuit? All major junior may have to pay players? Oh, BTW, US teams are exempt from the lawsuit? Imagine the players win that lawsuit, but there's this rift because of the US teams. Could there be a divorce there? Imagine the Northwest markets opening up for ECHL and/or AHL because of that. If one doesn't jump in, the other surely should.

Obviously, the ECHL has issues, and are certainly prone to having more out west. There could also be a solution emerging if we're not careful, too. Just things to keep in mind.

 

[Bondurant]

Some of the teams have a better attendance rate than what I had expected. Great to see ECHL finding success in some markets. Looks like Kalamazoo has seen a tumble. It's been 20+ years since my last game and my memory is Wings Stadium being more than half filled each game. I was back in MI last week and hoped to attend a game but they weren't home on days I was available.

K-Wings games were always a lot of fun. More competition now, I suppose, since the Griffins came along plus economic decline. Hope they still have a future in ECHL.

 

[mfrerkes]

There are numerous teams swirling the drain in the ECHL right now. You can add the Quad City Mallards to that list. Their attendance has been trending down significantly for the past couple years, they just fired Bob McNamara (the team president) and have yet to announce his replacement. I think it was a cost-cutting move more than an attempt at some new direction. If they wanted some new direction, one would think his replacement would have been waiting in the wings.

Also, the Mallards current coach is an absolute disaster, yet they appear content to keep him around. Again, cost seems to be a major consideration here because Phil Axtell had zero head-coaching experience prior to his stint with the Mallards. Terry Ruskowski was having better success with the team, but I'm sure they were paying him much more every week.

Keep an eye on the Mallards. Their attendance numbers should rebound a little after the holiday break. However, this team is going to need a massive surge to get them back where they were three years ago, and based on their W-L record lately, it's difficult to see how that happens.

 

[JMCx4]

... Keep an eye on the Mallards. Their attendance numbers should rebound a little after the holiday break. However, this team is going to need a massive surge to get them back where they were three years ago, and based on their W-L record lately, it's difficult to see how that happens.

UHL2 to the rescue?

 

[mfrerkes]

UHL2 to the rescue?

I doubt it will be that. Several of my co-workers have season tickets and they tell me that one of the ticketing representatives was let go for no real good reason, like McNamara was...and was not replaced, like McNamara was not replaced. They are shedding personnel at a time when they probably need to boost their front-office capabilities.

One of my co-workers has heard that a move to the USHL is a probable scenario. Personally, I've always felt QC would end up there some day. In light of recent developments, that's the path forward which makes the most sense.

This UHL 2.0 business is a pipe dream. Even if it is realized, it won't last very long.

 

[JMCx4]

... One of my co-workers has heard that a move to the USHL is a probable scenario. Personally, I've always felt QC would end up there some day. In light of recent developments, that's the path forward which makes the most sense. ...

So would the Quad Cities area qualify as part of "Central Illinois" to become the new home of CSH International's Flying Aces franchise? I've been postulating that Willard Yuill would replace his newly acquired SPHL franchise in Peoria with the USHL club, but moving the Bloomington business to Moline would make more sense for CSH if they wanted to strengthen their Midwest hockey holdings position.

 

[mfrerkes]

I've been postulating that Willard Yuill would replace his newly acquired SPHL franchise in Peoria with the USHL club, but moving the Bloomington business to Moline would make more sense for CSH if they wanted to strengthen their Midwest hockey holdings position.

I really don't know if/how/when this would all happen. A couple of my co-workers have been puzzled by the recent front office firings. You typically don't shake up your staff if everything is going well. Then again, the Mallards must think Phil Axtell is doing a good job, because he still has one.

The Quad Cities is not very likely to embrace USHL hockey. The market has always been occupied by a professional hockey team, and even that is a hard sell these days. Bloomington's drop in attendance is likely to replicated in the QC should the USHL set up shop here. Even worse, the Mallards will now have competition during the home stretch of their season (Feb-Mar-Apr) as a new arena football team will begin play soon. This venture looks to be the Quad Cities' latest "hot ticket" that will suck more oxygen out of the local sports scene.

 

[Hurricane Ron]

The only constant in the future of minor league hockey is change. I'm sure those in charge of the ECHL must have thought when the 2014-15 season began, that finally the dream of one coast to coast AA hockey league had finally occurred, and that there were to be blessings that followed. That didn't last long. Its possible that within the next 3 years, the league doesn't have a team west of the Central time zone. Its also possible that within 5 years, the league won't have team outside the Eastern time zone.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

There are numerous teams swirling the drain in the ECHL right now. You can add the Quad City Mallards to that list. Their attendance has been trending down significantly for the past couple years, they just fired Bob McNamara (the team president) and have yet to announce his replacement. I think it was a cost-cutting move more than an attempt at some new direction. If they wanted some new direction, one would think his replacement would have been waiting in the wings.

Also, the Mallards current coach is an absolute disaster, yet they appear content to keep him around. Again, cost seems to be a major consideration here because Phil Axtell had zero head-coaching experience prior to his stint with the Mallards. Terry Ruskowski was having better success with the team, but I'm sure they were paying him much more every week.

Keep an eye on the Mallards. Their attendance numbers should rebound a little after the holiday break. However, this team is going to need a massive surge to get them back where they were three years ago, and based on their W-L record lately, it's difficult to see how that happens.

I talked to a Mallards fan when they were in Cincinnati and he was none-too-pleased with Ruskowski's dismissal. Axtell is in way over his head, me thinks. The talent level didn't seem to match up with how they were playing. I could be wrong, but that's what my eyes told me.

Question. I checked out Ticketmaster a few hours before the Cyclones played the Mallards last Friday and there appeared to be less than 1,000 tickets out. Far less. The announced crowd was 2803. Do the Mallards fudge attendance numbers? By that I mean, do they announce some alleged "tickets distributed" number or the drop count (number actually at the arena)?

The ECHL will have no more than 20 teams in 5 years the way I see it. It could be lower. Many of the teams aren't drawing flies.

 

[Nightsquad]

I believe its hard to predict which cities will have teams in their respective leagues. There are so many factors, and I think attendance only tells a certain picture. Operating costs, underwriting from other business sponsors, public subsidizes, merchandise and advertising revenue helps to offset teams with lower attendance. Also to the ups and downs of the economy and fan interest cant be overlooked. A good run organization can anticipate those ups and downs. Then there are market factors such as places like Utica and Binghamton NY, both play in small enough arenas which are older and long paid for and sit in communities with just enough population to fill those arenas yet don't have much in the way of competition for the entertainment dollars. The AHL to Utica and Binghamton is huge, yet the AHL to people from Albany, Hartford Ct, and a place like Worcester Mass is just another minor league feeder system. Those cities all have big buildings, boat load of college sports at the DI levels, and closer to major metropolitan areas. If Springfield Mass can make a comeback in the AHL then other cities "could" at the ECHL/AHL levels.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I believe its hard to predict which cities will have teams in their respective leagues. There are so many factors, and I think attendance only tells a certain picture. Operating costs, underwriting from other business sponsors, public subsidizes, merchandise and advertising revenue helps to offset teams with lower attendance. Also to the ups and downs of the economy and fan interest cant be overlooked. A good run organization can anticipate those ups and downs. Then there are market factors such as places like Utica and Binghamton NY, both play in small enough arenas which are older and long paid for and sit in communities with just enough population to fill those arenas yet don't have much in the way of competition for the entertainment dollars. The AHL to Utica and Binghamton is huge, yet the AHL to people from Albany, Hartford Ct, and a place like Worcester Mass is just another minor league feeder system. Those cities all have big buildings, boat load of college sports at the DI levels, and closer to major metropolitan areas. If Springfield Mass can make a comeback in the AHL then other cities "could" at the ECHL/AHL levels.

I wouldn't label Worcester that, though.... Hartford, either... there's no comeback in Springfield... a right owner at a right time, that wasn't Bruce Landon....

 

[royals119]

I talked to a Mallards fan when they were in Cincinnati and he was none-too-pleased with Ruskowski's dismissal. Axtell is in way over his head, me thinks. The talent level didn't seem to match up with how they were playing. I could be wrong, but that's what my eyes told me.

Question. I checked out Ticketmaster a few hours before the Cyclones played the Mallards last Friday and there appeared to be less than 1,000 tickets out. Far less. The announced crowd was 2803. Do the Mallards fudge attendance numbers? By that I mean, do they announce some alleged "tickets distributed" number or the drop count (number actually at the arena)?

The ECHL will have no more than 20 teams in 5 years the way I see it. It could be lower. Many of the teams aren't drawing flies.

Very few teams announce the actual attendance in the building, for a couple of reasons. #1 because of the opposite situation from what you encountered. Say someone goes online and sees no available tickets to purchase for a game, but then they announce 5000 attendance in a building that seats 6000. That person say "WTH, there were no tickets left to buy, why couldn't I get a ticket?" when in fact all 6000 tickets had been sold or given away via promotions, but due to an outbreak of the flu, or forced overtime at the steel mill, or some other circumstance, 1000 people didn't show up. #2, the actual drop count may not be available to report during the game. I know at the Royals arena, that while they have had electronic ticket scanners for many years, there are still tickets being torn nightly due to either problems with the printer or the scanner, or not enough scanners for all the doors, or volunteers who paid for a ticket, but also help the team on game night arriving early and entering through the employee entrance. There isn't time for the team to count those tickets during the game, so they count them the next day to finalize the actual "butts in seats" number.

Obviously some teams do announce some creative attendance numbers, and it probably isn't always due to people not showing up who bought tickets, but you generally aren't going to get a true count of fans in the building anywhere. Even with a true sellout, there is going to be some number of people out of a group of 5,000+ who don't show up for whatever reason (sick, car broke down, death in the family, etc).

 

[mfrerkes]

Question. I checked out Ticketmaster a few hours before the Cyclones played the Mallards last Friday and there appeared to be less than 1,000 tickets out. Far less. The announced crowd was 2803. Do the Mallards fudge attendance numbers? By that I mean, do they announce some alleged "tickets distributed" number or the drop count (number actually at the arena)?

I've only attended one game this season, but the listed attendance for that particular contest did not appear to be inflated. I cannot speak about the weekend (Fri-Sat) games where attendance numbers are significantly higher. There may be more comped tickets involved for those dates, which could affect the accuracy. I don't know for sure, though.

If the Mallards are attempting to fudge the numbers, they aren't doing a very good job at it. The published attendance figures are still significantly below the average for the past couple years. If they were going embellish the numbers, why not make it look like the team is still holding its own?!?!

There are more obvious issues that indicate the team might be in financial trouble. The current coach (with no real experience) has the team on an 11-game losing streak, but manages to keep his job. Most teams would be eager to right the ship with a new hand at the wheel. The team president was fired a couple months ago along with a ticketing representative, and those positions were not replaced. It appears to me as if they're trying to cut expenses to make it to the end of this season. There's no real vision for building the team back up in the mean time. Fans are getting fed up, even the die-hards from way back. I suspect many STHs will be dropping their plans to renew.

 

[JMCx4]

... The Quad Cities is not very likely to embrace USHL hockey. The market has always been occupied by a professional hockey team, and even that is a hard sell these days. Bloomington's drop in attendance is likely to replicated in the QC should the USHL set up shop here. Even worse, the Mallards will now have competition during the home stretch of their season (Feb-Mar-Apr) as a new arena football team will begin play soon. This venture looks to be the Quad Cities' latest "hot ticket" that will suck more oxygen out of the local sports scene.

I agree that the Quad Cities hockey fan base (what's left of it) would be difficult to turn from pro to juniors fans. But here's an option worth mulling over: Have you seen any construction/reconstruction work going on lately over at the River's Edge facility in Davenport? Maybe that rink could be a home target for a relocated USHL team, leaving TaxSlayer Center to concerts & arena football. River's Edge has an Olympic-sized ice sheet with decent ice quality, but when I skated there a few years back the bleacher seating didn't seem to come close to the USHL mandated minimum (3,500 according to this Wisconsin State Journal story from last fall). So the facility would seem to require changes to make it suitable for a USHL franchise to occupy, but stranger things have happened in the hockey world ... and just as often failed ...

 

[PCSPounder]

You guys are going to get me to Youtube the crowd video I have from Rapid City back in the middle of November. Announced crowd was 2,038, looked like no more than 1,000. For a Wednesday night, I think that reflects a fair amount of comp tickets as well as no-shows... but I've seen smaller actual crowds claimed as larger crowd counts. All sports, for that matter.

Back when I lived in Boise, the Steelheads would claim double the actual crowds, and there were comp tickets floating around (the apartment complex I lived in post-divorce kind of became a decent supplier of midweek tickets for 2 years). Thing is... the expensive mid-ice seats and the rinkside and the suites were almost always full on weekends. None of the rinkside seats were available for sale in Rapid, and the suites were all in use that night. I say this because (and I think I've mentioned this before) the D-League Idaho Stampede lasted 10 years past their sell-by date because the business community supported the franchise, never mind the few dozen fans tagging along with them. THAT is a bigger indicator of your franchise surviving lean times than anything else. The business is almost solely a season ticket + group sales business nowadays.

 

[mfrerkes]

Have you seen any construction/reconstruction work going on lately over at the River's Edge facility in Davenport? Maybe that rink could be a home target for a relocated USHL team, leaving TaxSlayer Center to concerts & arena football. River's Edge has an Olympic-sized ice sheet with decent ice quality, but when I skated there a few years back the bleacher seating didn't seem to come close to the USHL mandated minimum (3,500 according to this Wisconsin State Journal story from last fall).

There's nothing in the way of renovation/expansion going on at River's Edge. It's highly unlikely the USHL would ever wind up in that facility. There's not much room for expansion, nor would the city of Davenport green-light the millions in public funding it would take to accomplish the necessary changes. The political will does not exist.

The Mallards losing streak is currently at 13 games. If Phil Axtell is still coach at the end of this season, I will interpret that as a sign from ownership that they've totally given up on hockey in the Quad Cities. The amount of damage being done to the fan base right now is extraordinary, and it was already faltering before any of these recent developments took place.

If the Mallards do decide to get a different coach and stay another season, the amount of work necessary to mend fences will be staggering.