What I’m envisioning (ECHL on the main route to the NHL as opposed to a detour) will probably never exist and you’ve confirmed that many times over the past week. Since you seem well-versed in junior/minor pro hockey, let me ask you this: do you think a market capable of drawing big crowds (>5000) in juniors would be better-off in the ECHL? This time, I’m saying keep the ECHL as it is! Examples could include Sioux Falls (USHL); Portland, Spokane, Regina, and Victoria (WHL), Halifax and Quebec City (QMJHL), and London and Kitchener (OHL). Yes, jumping to the ECHL would be more expensive. However, junior hockey (both the CHL and USHL) seems to be more for markets that draw 2-4000/game.
They would not. Major junior attendance is cyclical, except for a few notable exceptions like London, QC, and after looking at Sioux Falls attendance (even though they're in the UShow) I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and group them in as well. There's maybe two or three others like Kitchener and Victoria just below them. To understand why the attendance is cyclical, you need to understand how major junior teams operate.
They build through the draft. If they won't make playoffs, the overagers, best players, and anyone who will be gone within 2-3 years are quickly out the door for draft picks and young guns. The OHL especially doesn't mess around with this, trading picks for the opening rounds of the 2025 OHL Draft. They then build and compete with their now stocked cupboard, trading for players from the teams now rebuilding. After a few more years when they can't compete anymore, they trail off and start rebuilding again. Erie Otters are the best known example of this. Horrible for about 10 years building up. Then they get lucky with McDavid and build a contender by drafting players like Raddysh, Strome and then bringing in others like Debrincat and Cirelli. Their attendance bottomed out, skyrocketed, and is now on its way back down again. Regina was below 4,000/game as recently as 2013, but the attendance grew as they built up for the Mem Cup this past year. Halifax follows the same trend, seeing a huge bump when Drouin and MacKinnon played. Portland bottomed out at 3,500 in 2008-09 and peaked when the made it to the Mem Cup finals, now it's on its downswing.
ECHL on-ice performance isn't very cyclical at all. There's no draft, they can't tank for a few years and then start to build. It's a constant battle for free agents, good contracts, and call-downs from the Show and the AHL. And those markets I mentioned earlier, for one reason or another, won't join the EC. Kitchener and London have operated those junior teams for a long time and those fans and ownership want junior hockey, they won't change. Victoria got rid of their EC team for the Royals in 2010. QC will watch any hockey put in that building, as long as there's no English, but they're still NHL or bust. And Sioux Falls we already went over in the other thread.
The whole thing doesn't and won't work.
