News Article: "Fun With Numbers" - Advanced Stats Talk Here

[StefanW]

What is means is there may be a job to be had as the stats guy on the Sens front office.

Good luck to whoever takes it if it does materialize. Analytics people are underpaid across all of the major sports at the moment.

 

[StefanW]

Good followup to the ESPN article from The 6th Sens:
http://the6thsens.com/2015-articles/espn-senators-are-skeptics-when-it-comes-to-analytics.html

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Good luck to whoever takes it if it does materialize. Analytics people are underpaid across all of the major sports at the moment.

Underpaid according to....?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Good followup to the ESPN article from The 6th Sens:
http://the6thsens.com/2015-articles/espn-senators-are-skeptics-when-it-comes-to-analytics.html

They dont really bring up the examples for saying why the sens clearly dont use analytics or dont respect an analytic voice in the room.(6thsens)

The only example is Neil over Condra. Neil was clearly signed for reasons other then just how well he plays as was phillips. Condra despite good advanced stats is pretty obvious thats hes a 20 point forward. Its not exactly a major decision to let him go in place of another cheaper, younger ahl prospect.


Theres nothing that really points to the sens not liking analytics or not using them well. To be fair though theres not really a smoking gun saying they do use them well though.

Best example of the sens maybe ignoring them is offering clarkson a contract

 

[Do Make Say Think]

They dont really bring up the examples for saying why the sens clearly dont use analytics or dont respect an analytic voice in the room.(6thsens)

The only example is Neil over Condra. Neil was clearly signed for reasons other then just how well he plays as was phillips. Condra despite good advanced stats is pretty obvious thats hes a 20 point forward. Its not exactly a major decision to let him go in place of another cheaper, younger ahl prospect.

As much as I'd love to find a way to keep Condra and let Neil go those kinds of comments really show how little the person expressing it understands

Neil is signed for another year, Condra isn't. In real life players aren't signed to yearly deals that get renewed if the teams wants to and moving contracts is much more complicated than "trade Neil for a 5th so we can keep Condra"

It makes for a more vivid narrative but it's also not saying anything of value

 

[StefanW]

Underpaid according to....?

There are stories out there if you search for them. I read one a little while ago that was really good, and I will try to dig it out of my Twitter history later on when I have a stretch of free time.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

As much as I'd love to find a way to keep Condra and let Neil go those kinds of comments really show how little the person expressing it understands

Neil is signed for another year, Condra isn't. In real life players aren't signed to yearly deals that get renewed if the teams wants to and moving contracts is much more complicated than "trade Neil for a 5th so we can keep Condra"

It makes for a more vivid narrative but it's also not saying anything of value

Resigning phillips when it was likely we'd have to many left d and might have to make one expendable would have been a better example. When neil signed his contract no one was saying oh crap thats going to effect condra down the line

 

[DrEasy]

Resigning phillips when it was likely we'd have to many left d and might have to make one expendable would have been a better example. When neil signed his contract no one was saying oh crap thats going to effect condra down the line

It's not even so much who you sign but who you play. Sitting Condra for Neil, as McLean did to begin the season, points to an old-school mentality. Playing Phillips as much as he did, and in the roles that he was given, was another example.

As for signings, not valuing Da Costa enough to give him a one-way, and letting him go as a result is another example.

I don't even dispute whether these were good or bad decision (my opinion is well known by now anyway ). I'm just saying they're signs of old-school mentality (which may be good or bad).

I don't know if Cameron is more analytics-friendly, but his decisions and their outcomes (not so much W-L but puck possession) certainly point that way. Maybe the front office is evolving?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

It's not even so much who you sign but who you play. Sitting Condra for Neil, as McLean did to begin the season, points to an old-school mentality. Playing Phillips as much as he did, and in the roles that he was given, was another example.

As for signings, not valuing Da Costa enough to give him a one-way, and letting him go as a result is another example.

I don't even dispute whether these were good or bad decision (my opinion is well known by now anyway ). I'm just saying they're signs of old-school mentality (which may be good or bad).

I don't know if Cameron is more analytics-friendly, but his decisions and their outcomes (not so much W-L but puck possession) certainly point that way. Maybe the front office is evolving?

This is something that i thought of. Wasnt the Lee interview from the start of the season... didnt murray use some basic advanced stats as reasoning that MacLean was fired? Hasnt the team done some more friendly analytical moves under Cameron and overall improved from a puck possession/scoring chance stance? Still none of this would be as much as a smoking gun as hiring an analytics guy would be or the organization coming out and saying were adapting an analytics approach to things.

I can just picture Murray in my head telling Lee.." Ya whatever just get me some analytics reports so i can judge the team before Christmas". Then the reports come in and Murray goes. "Holy hell we've got a problem" and fires MacLean. lol

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I think Cameron is just much more of an eye-test guy than Maclean was

Maclean kept forcing a hexagonal peg into a triangle hole while Cameron seems ok with trying all sorts of things

 

[BonkTastic]

Maclean kept forcing a hexagonal peg into a triangle hole while Cameron seems ok with trying all sorts of things

Wasn't one of the main criticisms against Maclean was that he shuffled the lines too much?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Sure

I meant that more as a big picture statement: the only time he adjusted the team's system to the realities of the roster was in the shortened season when we basically turned into the New Jersey Devils

Outside of that he kept forcing the team to play offensive hockey and while they were succesful at doing so they were also not winning games

 

[BonkTastic]

Sure

I meant that more as a big picture statement: the only time he adjusted the team's system to the realities of the roster was in the shortened season when we basically turned into the New Jersey Devils

Outside of that he kept forcing the team to play offensive hockey and while they were succesful at doing so they were also not winning games

Ah, ok. Yeah. Gotcha.

 

[HavlatMach9]

I think there was a method to MacLean's madness, but our roster wasn't good enough for results.

 

[StefanW]

I believe the team had solid possession numbers under MacLean the first couple of years he coached, if memory serves.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

I think there was a method to MacLean's madness, but our roster wasn't good enough for results.

Doesn't that mean you should try something else?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

I believe the team had solid possession numbers under MacLean the first couple of years he coached, if memory serves.

Yup. They just were bad last year and terrible this year

 

[Hammertyme]

I hope the nhl actually tracks possession, non possession or neutral possession rather than using shots as an indicator.

 

[chipsens]

I would like a more accuarate measure of players height & weight, both current and at several dates leading up to their draft. Apparently many current heights are +/- 1 inch or so. This is esp key for young prospects who haven't matured. How big will they become? Is there more precise info available from NHL combine etc?

 

[StefanW]

wasnt dellow fired by edmonton? that would suggest some of the info is dated

The answer came up at Sloan a couple of minutes ago:

 

[StefanW]

In case anyone is interested, I started a new blog that contains a section for hockey writing:
www.storiesnumberstell.com

I'm not expecting to do Sens specific stuff in that forum, but I decided to post a link for those who are interested in my other hockey writing. There is also a page that has PDFs of all of the posts in the Integrating Hockey Analysis project that ended a couple of months ago.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Since the season is almost over...
*overall means all situations

In the 55 games under Cameron the sens are

3rd in scoring chance plus minus 7th at 5v5 in the league

8th in scoring chances against overall

12th in corsi 5v5 6th overall

17th in fenwick 5v5 11th overall

19th in shotforagainst 5v5 12th overall

8th in goals for per 60

10th in goals against per 60

15th in shooting percentage

8th in save percentage

21st in faceoff percentage

9th in defensive zone starts

10th in offensive zone starts

7th in PDO

Lots of good and a little bad. Still some things to work on like cutting down shots. The zone starts is something i think is underrated. The sens generally start in the opponents zone and rarely in their own zone. Takes a ton of pressure off the defense.

 

[Sensators]

Thanks for the stats Vesa, where did you get them from?


the first number is under cameron? so we went from 12th to 19th in 55 games with cameron? seems like a lot lol. I thought we were giving up a ton of shots under maclean, strange.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Thanks for the stats Vesa, where did you get them from?


the first number is under cameron? so we went from 12th to 19th in 55 games with cameron? seems like a lot lol. I thought we were giving up a ton of shots under maclean, strange.

both are under cameron. Maclean's stats werent used. One is 5v5 the other is all situations ie 5v5 4v5 5v4 4v4... overall means all situations. I should have corrected it but i didnt feel like it


MacLean's for those who are wondering(just a short examination)

20th in corsi all situations
23rd in scoring chance plus minus all situations
29th in shots against(2nd last to buffalo)
29th in shotforagainst plus minus all situations
5th best in save percentage all situations

9th in PDO

 

[DrEasy]

both are under cameron. Maclean's stats werent used. One is 5v5 the other is all situations ie 5v5 4v5 5v4 4v4... overall means all situations. I should have corrected it but i didnt feel like it


MacLean's for those who are wondering(just a short examination)

20th in corsi all situations
23rd in scoring chance plus minus all situations
29th in shots against(2nd last to buffalo)
29th in shotforagainst plus minus all situations
5th best in save percentage all situations

9th in PDO

MacLean makes goalies better!