News Article: "Fun With Numbers" - Advanced Stats Talk Here

[bornNraised Sens]

I intend not to include players who play only one season. Since the premise is "sophomore slump" I don't believe they will be relevant to the topic.

I will also use a cutoff (probably around 25 points scored in rookie season, less for defenseman) since the premise of a "sophomore slump" is mostly predicated on a decrease in production. If a rookie is scoring less than that then a decrease in points is likely to be insignificant. Obviously an increase in points would be relevant since the more players performing above their rookie season there is the more the idea of a "sophomore slump" starts to crumble but there's only so much time I can devote to compiling data.

Currently I'm including GP, G, A, P, PP/G, +\-, TOI only. The main trends I will be looking at are differences in PP/G and TOI. There is obviously more I could track but I'd like to get a firm grasp on these trends before digging deeper into the stats.

I know very little about stats in hockey, but was wondering if something related to player usage for the player's first and second year would be included? Something to show that a player was "rushed" into too large or a role in a second year or what would the "ideal" progression be for a player between first and second year.

 

[Micklebot]

Thought this was cool;

https://public.tableau.com/profile/spencer.mann#!/vizhome/PassingDataDefense/Compare

 

[littleD]

Does anyone know of someone who tracks zone entries for the Sens like jenlc does for Chicago?

 

[Micklebot]

Does anyone know of someone who tracks zone entries for the Sens like jenlc does for Chicago?

MannyElk used to do it but only for last season. The page is no longer up though

Sidenote, those graphs I posted look more impressive when they aren't tiny. I'll try and edit the post with bigger pics later.

 

[StefanW]

In case anyone here is interested, I put together a list of articles that integrate analytics and other types of hockey knowledge. This is intended as a resource for those who are interested in a mixed approach. This is going to be a work in progress, so please feel free to suggest other articles.
http://www.storiesnumberstell.com/key-integrating-hockey-knowledge-resources/

 

[Micklebot]

Back from the dead, more fun with numbers

K: There's a lot of news about analytics experts being hired around the league like mathematicians, bloggers, etc. Do the Sens currently employ anyone for analytics?

Pierre Dorion: Yes we do. We have an independent gentleman who we use. Our management side has used him and our coaches have used him as well. A lot of people publicize what they do with hockey analytics, we like to keep it all in-house. We have someone who we think is very capable of giving us really good information in terms of hockey analytics. We don't always agree with what he's saying, which is good because it's a totally different perspective than what we are used to dealing with. I think it opens our eyes and it makes us think about how we do things. I think it's a tool we use to make ourselves better.

Seems like Ottawa has an open mind wrt fancy stats afterall...

 

[StefanW]

Seems like Ottawa has an open mind wrt fancy stats afterall...

I remember hearing a rumour a while back that the person is a grad student at a local university. It is a decent "dip your toe in the water" type of thing, but it is a very far way from showing the team has any level of commitment to analytics. Also, having a person running the numbers and listening to that person can be two separate things.

 

[Xspyrit]

Of course Sens are really aware of all hockey analytics. If fans do, a multi hundred-millions company will.

Thought this was cool;

https://public.tableau.com/profile/spencer.mann#!/vizhome/PassingDataDefense/Compare

Karlsson is unreal, Subban is overrated, Josi is the real deal.

 

[StefanW]

Just for the heck of it, a writeup on how I would organize a hockey analytics department:
http://www.storiesnumberstell.com/my-dream-nhl-analytics-department/

 

[dumbdick]

Sorry Mods about the vintage bump here.

Thought I'd share some work I threw together on automated player comparisons for a few sens players. Apologies as it's perhaps not the easiest image to understand. Basically, these are automatically generated player comparisons. The closer a player is to the bottom, the more closely they're related to that Sens player statistically. So, Letang is Karlsson's top comparable player in 2015-16 and John Carlson was his 10th most closely related player. Notably, I didn't tell the data what position players play, which is really cool because it almost perfectly matched defence to defence and forward to forward. And the comparisons seem reasonable on the surface. I might get around to doing the rest of the team if anyone is interested.

What do you think, does this match expectations? Do they make sense? Any other players you'd like to see?

P.S. Will work for free tickets (I'm looking at you Cyril!)

 

[DrEasy]

Nice! What criteria did you use to compare players?

 

[dumbdick]

There's a bunch of criteria used in the metric. A few dozen variables are fed into it.

Interesting side note from this research....Boro and Patrick Kane are just one spot removed from being the two "least comparable" players in the entire NHL. Finally, someone confirmed what we've all been thinking!

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Sorry Mods about the vintage bump here.

[trim]

Dude, if you're bringing interesting new content, no need to apologize ever. This is the kind of stuff I love to see, personally. Brassard being Hoffman's closest comparable is super interesting. And the divide between EK/Burns/Letang and Subban is unsurprising but still pretty awesome.

 

[ChelFan31]

How's the analytics department looking under the Dorion regime. Have they increased their analytics department grown at all from that part time Ottawa U graduate or is it still a skeleton.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

How's the analytics department looking under the Dorion regime. Have they increased their analytics department grown at all from that part time Ottawa U graduate or is it still a skeleton.

Rob [Cookson] is terrific at being an eye in the sky, like, he’s outstanding at looking and pre-scouting and X’s and O’s and he’s really good, also, on the analytics side. We’ve developed an analytics department, more in-depth this year. The fact that you have Rob, who’s able to translate all that information and all those numbers into something that’s tangible for us as coaches, because when you sit down and look at stats, for me, they’ve got to mean something over time. The stats about last game, for me, it’s a small portion of what I’m looking at. I’m looking at the big picture. -Guy Boucher

Source, interview Sept. 24.

Sure looks like it!

 

[ChelFan31]

Source, interview Sept. 24.

Sure looks like it!

Cookson's a assistant coach though. I meant like is there a increased analytics dept who reports to the gm to add value to player personnel moves.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Cookson's a assistant coach though. I meant like is there a increased analytics dept who reports to the gm to add value to player personnel moves.

That's why I bolded what I did. Cookson is presumably just a part of a more fleshed-out analytics department.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Does anyone know if WAR/GAR stats are available on the Senators players.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/02/08/understanding-war-and-its-practical-applications-to-player-evaluation-part-1/

 

[operasen]

‘It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.’

Sherlock Holmes Quote

-A Scandal in Bohemia

 

[ChelFan31]

That's why I bolded what I did. Cookson is presumably just a part of a more fleshed-out analytics department.

So other than Guy Bouchers quote, there is no actual descriptive and circumstantial proof of this 'a more fleshed-out analytics department' [excluding Cookson] ? ...Sens websites shows goose egg / zero for actual individuals in analytics.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

So other than Guy Bouchers quote, there is no actual descriptive and circumstantial proof of this 'a more fleshed-out analytics department' [excluding Cookson] ? ...Sens websites shows goose egg / zero for actual individuals in analytics.

Plenty of NHL teams have internal analytics they don't share with the public at large. Your inability to find any advanced stats on the Sens site means nothing relative to what they're doing in-house.

It's okay to take a quote at face value, you know.

 

[ChelFan31]

Plenty of NHL teams have internal analytics they don't share with the public at large.

Just checked. Most Nhl team websites do in fact disclose analytics department with public / fans

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Just checked. Most Nhl team websites do in fact disclose analytics department with public / fans

Discuss them, yes. Go into depth with the exact findings and information, no.

And if you don't believe the Sens have discussed them with the fans, maybe take a look at the first post, a.k.a. the entire reason why this thread was started.

 

[ChelFan31]

It's okay to take a quote at face value, you know.

Best to not take everything for face value and "follow the evidence wherever it leads, and question everything" -Neil deGrasse Tyson

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Best to not take everything for face value and "follow the evidence wherever it leads, and question everything" -Neil deGrasse Tyson

I think I'm going to start to question the concept of gravity and also the earth being round. Seems too good to be true.