News Article: "Fun With Numbers" - Advanced Stats Talk Here

[God Says No]

I think Smith has traditionally done fairly well in terms of adv stats.

While his corsi numbers are down this year, he's generally been above 50% (50.8% over his career). He's done so while often being used in a shutdown roll to, starting under 42% of his shifts in the OZ.

He's also been stuck with a declining Neil quite a lot.

My biggest issue with smith is he's been terrible at the dot this year (not sure why), which has to change if he's to be effective for us.

All that said, I'd rather have Pageau in the lineup.

I'm taking a guess his center days are over due to his wrist injury. If I was him I'd embrace the LW spot and become the pest he used to be, otherwise he might be out of the league.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm taking a guess his center days are over due to his wrist injury. If I was him I'd embrace the LW spot and become the pest he used to be, otherwise he might be out of the league.

Is the injury to his top hand or bottom hand? If it's the top hand, I don't think it should affect his ability to win draws.

 

[chipsens]

Wier is good because hes used more in offensive situations against weak opponents. I would assume he doesnt have to transition out of his zone as much as phillips had to or at least it was easier for him.

Wier is good in offensive situations against weak competition. This is something people have been saying a long time. He dominates in those situations. In general though i would only consider SAT part of the puzzle... deployment, linemates and opponents are also huge factors.

Worth noting that the team played terrible under maclean for all these stats. I imagine a lot of the core players were dug into deep holes they only started to pull out of under Cameron

FWIW some other analytics suggests that Wier performs at an elite level (not much below Karlsson) in terms of DZone exits.
(And no, I am not related to Wier

 

[God Says No]

Is the injury to his top hand or bottom hand? If it's the top hand, I don't think it should affect his ability to win draws.

Can't remember, and there is no info out there that I can find.

 

[Caeldan]

Can't remember, and there is no info out there that I can find.

Left wrist. So bottom hand.

 

[StefanW]

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

Apparently the Sens are analytics skeptics.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings

Apparently the Sens are analytics skeptics.

Something tells me ESPN didnt collect a ton of info on the senators. Saying that i find it a bit concerning that they could be right and the sens dont use analytics a lot.

I do know the Senators under MacLean kept their own scoring chance and save percentage on scoring chance data. Didnt Murray also used advanced stats as reasoning for firing MacLean?

 

[Knave]

Notice how little the belief in advanced stats correlates with winning.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Notice how little the belief in advanced stats correlates with winning.

To be fair they list teams like TO as an analytics believer but also state they ignored analytics until recently.

They also say Tim Murray is huge on advanced stats but he also struck me as a skeptic

 

[StefanW]

Notice how little the belief in advanced stats correlates with winning.

Depends on when the buy in happened, and what the standard is. I see most of the recent cup winners in the All In and Believers categories.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Here's Lee's recent comments on the Senators and analytics

“We’ve talked about it the other day with Bryan (Murray). We do have people on staff that have background on this and they’ve presented ideas to us. I think we try to get a mesh of what the management team think and the coaching staff think of where it fits. It’s not just a matter of forcing it down the pipe. We want to make sure that it’s something that can really complement what we’re doing. We do a lot of analytics-type stuff in different ways and we’ve been doing it for years. It’s not brand new, but it’s sort of taking on a new optic where teams are doing this and designating a certain person. I don’t think Bryan (Murray) believes in designating a certain person to this, but I think as an organization, we believe that if there are components of it that we think will help us and complement the job we do, we’ll try and incorporate it into our day-to-day work.”

I think a fulltime analytics employee might help

 

[StefanW]

Here's Lee's recent comments on the Senators and analytics

“We’ve talked about it the other day with Bryan (Murray). We do have people on staff that have background on this and they’ve presented ideas to us. I think we try to get a mesh of what the management team think and the coaching staff think of where it fits. It’s not just a matter of forcing it down the pipe. We want to make sure that it’s something that can really complement what we’re doing. We do a lot of analytics-type stuff in different ways and we’ve been doing it for years. It’s not brand new, but it’s sort of taking on a new optic where teams are doing this and designating a certain person. I don’t think Bryan (Murray) believes in designating a certain person to this, but I think as an organization, we believe that if there are components of it that we think will help us and complement the job we do, we’ll try and incorporate it into our day-to-day work.â€

I think a fulltime analytics employee might help

Agreed. Great post.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Sounds like it's something Lee thinks is only a matter of time before they go all-in

 

[Caeldan]

To be fair they list teams like TO as an analytics believer but also state they ignored analytics until recently.

They also say Tim Murray is huge on advanced stats but he also struck me as a skeptic

TO would be accurate to say that, as they've got management on record (including Carlyle iirc) saying it's a bunch of ptooie prior to the hiring of Dubas.

So basically there's been a changing of the guard in that respect.

 

[Knave]

Depends on when the buy in happened, and what the standard is. I see most of the recent cup winners in the All In and Believers categories.

All I see is Detroit, Nashville and Anaheim. That tells me all you need to know about the value analytics has.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

wasnt dellow fired by edmonton? that would suggest some of the info is dated

 

[Samsquanch]

They also say Tim Murray is huge on advanced stats but he also struck me as a skeptic

TM definitely strikes me as the type of guy would talk tough and sound sour when asked about advanced stats in public by a reporter, but because he's such a hockey nerd he probably does pay quite a bit of attention to them.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

At the end of the day a lot of it depends on how you qualify "believing"

Tim Murray is on record saying he likes analytics but that they are not the guiding principle he follows when evaluating players

Then you've got guys like Travis Yost who clearly let's the analytics do the decision

Who believes? I'd argue that Tim Murry acknowledging that there is value in them and incorporating them into his evaluation of players means he does

Some might claim that the only people who believe in analytics are people like Yost (his cheerleading of Weircioch despite how terrible he is really showed how highly he thinks of number-crunching): if you believe you make your decisions using mostly analytics

 

[StefanW]

All I see is Detroit, Nashville and Anaheim. That tells me all you need to know about the value analytics has.

Well, if you are looking that selectively your mind is probably already made up. Not sure why you looked to begin with, to be honest.

 

[StefanW]

wasnt dellow fired by edmonton? that would suggest some of the info is dated

I don't think so.

 

[bigfatfist]

Seems like the Ottawa section was mailed in. No mention of Chiarelli saying they were using advanced stats when he was there, nothing on the Lee interview, no specific information at all.

Considering that SAS sports analytics two biggest clients are the Leafs and the Orlando Magic, I could have done without a blurb saying how the Senators should up their investment. And honestly, I would have loved any kind of story around Murray, maybe with quotes... but nope. Just the same well worn trope.

Also, working professionally in stats, there's a huge difference between an organizations spend and they're buy in. Just because Montreal quietly users their one guy (another detail not covered in Craig's story) doesn't mean they don't listen to him more than the Leafs listen to Dubas. My current client is a hilarious exams of this where they spend and spend on capacity, ask for reports, ask for opinions, consider themselves data focused, but ultimately make the majority of their decisions based on the whims of senior managers!

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Seems like the Ottawa section was mailed in. No mention of Chiarelli saying they were using advanced stats when he was there, nothing on the Lee interview, no specific information at all.

Considering that SAS sports analytics two biggest clients are the Leafs and the Orlando Magic, I could have done without a blurb saying how the Senators should up their investment. And honestly, I would have loved any kind of story around Murray, maybe with quotes... but nope. Just the same well worn trope.

Also, working professionally in stats, there's a huge difference between an organizations spend and they're buy in. Just because Montreal quietly users their one guy (another detail not covered in Craig's story) doesn't mean they don't listen to him more than the Leafs listen to Dubas. My current client is a hilarious exams of this where they spend and spend on capacity, ask for reports, ask for opinions, consider themselves data focused, but ultimately make the majority of their decisions based on the whims of senior managers!

Exactly

How you use the information is much more important than how much of it you have

Pretty rudimentary stuff if you ask me but I'm just a low level peon

 

[Micklebot]

I don't think so.

This is what I found on the subject:

While on analytics topic, sources say #Oilers guy Tyler Dellow returned to TO after Eakins firing and is unlikely to be used any more

 

[StefanW]

This is what I found on the subject:

Thanks for this. I assume it means he is still on payroll though? He did comment on the rollout of NHL analytics last week, but I have not seen much from him aside from that.

 

[DrEasy]

What is means is there may be a job to be had as the stats guy on the Sens front office.