News Article: Friedman's 31 Thoughts (Habs Pursuing Dubois) -- Part Deux!

[Habs Halifax]

No they won't. Pettersson is a much better player than PLD

Pettersson is just one name. I did say I don't think that will happen for sure. The main point is some team will slide into the Dubois mix that we don't see today.

 

[Deebs]

So, nothing to base it on? Check.

IMO, he already took a bargain deal at 5M for two years to enable Kekalainen to move him more easily and for more teams to be able to take on his contract early and find Cap room over the next two years for a longer contract beyond this one.

It sounds more like a smart player willing to make compromises for a better situation than a bitch.

I think its more about the dynamics of where he is and relationships with both Kekalainen who is a "make you his bitch while you're a RFA" type of GM and Tortorella who is plainly a "make you his bitch" type of head coach.

Dubois will sign for big enough money in time. I doubt the 500K on an 8-7r contract would make a difference to him.

The only thing I see is the smart, calculated move of the next contract being s 5 or 6 year contract only, to allow him to really cash in on a final long term deal while he is still young enough to get the term and a higher AAV throughout the term.

I doubt that his agent being friends with Bergevin will make a difference but, his agent isn't strictly a bottom line hound. The situation plays for a lot in the contracts his players sign.

I see Dubois being set up for an 8M AAV for 6 years over the term of his next contract, bringing him to 29-30. It could be for 5 years, which would give Montreal, at the very least, a 7-yr window with the player before his final contract of they get him this season.

I don't see Montreal giving Suzuki a bridge deal either, nor needing to do so if they take care of redundant depth players in the meantime. I would prefer the deal to be one year longer than Dubois, though, staggering the extensions the next time around; 6 years if Dubois signs for 5, 7 years if Dubois signs for 6. If Suzuki is the type to prefer the security of an 8-yr contract, even better, IMO.

Montreal will be able to lower the AAV on Suzuki's contract because the bridge deal par can be factored in to the total over the longer term; 4M, 5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 7.5M or 4M, 5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 8M or, 4M, 5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 7.5M, 8M, 8M.

The AAV for 6 years would be 6.5M. For 7 years, it would be 6.71M and, for 8, it would be 6.875M. All win-win situations for both the player and the team.

Shorten up your posts, no need for novels.

He whined about his contract, asks for a trade and is now playing with no interest whatsoever. That's not a good look. He's a good player, he's not a superstar, he's not a big time #1C and people are wanting to throw the moon at Columbus to get him over here. I don't believe it's a good move for our team as a whole if we have to give up significant pieces.

 

[Habs Halifax]

it's kind of difficult to keep up with oyur posts. I think we're saying the same thing but maybe differently. I dunno. But I wouldn't trade Suzuki for PLD but all day for KK.

Also, I think there's a lot more to hitting your prime than just points. Mastering the game and gaining more confidence as you age as well as becoming more of a leader has a material impact on players perfromance and not just in points. Barkov started off as a 5-60 point, big, complete center at the same age and then once he starting into his prime years, that jumped up to 80-90 points. Same for most top centers who had good numbers in their first few years and then skyrocketed in their mid twenties. So I think he has a lot more production and adding to his overall game to add in the years to come. He's 1 year older than Suzuki! Both far from their best years.

I'm pretty sure we see Dubois's potential close to the same. However, I'm paying trade value for a 60-70 pts physical center, not a 80-100 range.

Carter had a 46 goal season and 84 pts before he was traded at age 26. I say Dubois value is close or lower even though he is 22 and there might be untapped potential.

There are not many 20 year old complete physical centers traded in the NHL. Carter is the guy I can think of. Guys under contract or under RFA control is where my mind is at.

 

[Habs]

well if these new vaccines don't aren't effective against the covid variants, there won't be hockey next year anyways.

 

[Scriptor]

I'm all for it but it's hard to do capwise. If MB can pull it off, sure. That means definitely let go Tatar and another winger or two. Seattle expansion might help there. But I definitely prefer C depth to wing depth. You can get cheap depth wingers everywhere. Besides, who cares about the fourth lines when your first three have Dubois, Suzuki and Danault.

This is the key, especially with a head coach like Julien and quite a few others around the league. If your C-line is a strong, two-way line that can play indiscriminately against any of your opponents, that type of coach will roll out the line pretty evenly and the fourth line's TOI, depending on the quality of that line, can see it's TOI cut back. Rolling out three lines that you can count on to stifle the opponent's offence and score goals for your team at the same time is not like needing to rely on one or two lines that you overplay like the oilers or Leafs might.

Having a fourth line that can play D for shorter shifts (going balls to the wall) is relatively easy to assemble at near league minimum. Plenty of players who fit that bill are up for grabs, even on the waiver wire.

Quality depth over your top-9 is the key.

Montreal should be able to align a roster with the following top-9 for the medium term, no problem, even with extensions to Tatar (4), Danault (6), Dubois (5), Suzuki (6), Romanov (bridge for 2 or 3), Drouin (6), etc...:

C: Dubois, Suzuki, Danault
LW: Tatar, Drouin, Caufield or Toffoli
RW: Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli or Caufield

Players like Byron, Armia and Lehkonen are, unfortunately, necessary casualties over the next two years if all the above the top-9 are to be re-signed. We can't have 4th line depth players at 2.6M (or more) in Armia and 2.4M (or more) in Lehkonen -- definitely not at 3.4M in Byron! Ylonen, Poehling, Teasedale, Mysak or, cheap depth veterans on short term contracts are the options we will focus on.

The D is another matter but, its also pretty sharp over the next four years. Yet, more movement will be needed on the backend with ELCs stepping in to help the cap situation. Ideally, Bergevin can move his forwards without relying on Seattle to take one on. Based on Romanov's projected progression this season, that could set the habs' GM up to make an offer for the Kracken to take on the three remaining years of the Edmundson contract and free up the 3.5M. Montreal has cheap alternatives for the 3rd pairing out of Mete, Fleury, Brook or an ELC to one of Norlinder, Harris or Struble (Guhle should get a bit of time, IMO).

With the help of the Kracken, Bergevin would get an easy out of Chiarot's 3.5M Cap hit at the end of the following season, whether he were to decide to move him at the deadline as a decent rental or to ride the playoffs and risk losing him for nothing in the offseason. Either way, the cap space is more valuable than extending Chiarot would be. This would require another ELC and, perhaps, Guhle would be the appropriate target to ease his way into the NHL on a 3rd pairing as a defensive anchor alongside Brook?

Romanov - Petry
Chiarot - Weber
??? - ???
Mete, Fleury, Brook, Norlinder, Harris, Struble as options or a stop-gap veteran signing on the UFA front.

Primeau would get one more year in the AHL next season but, would also need to step up as Allen and his 2.875M Cap hit couldn't be around when we need to extend both Dubois and Suzuki at the same time.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Are you talking about giving or taking?

Wait, you're used to both?

I presumed most here would assume I meant taking, but whatever floats your boat.

 

[Kriss E]

Thinking Dubois+Koivu vs KK+Danault is worse for us this season... IS RIDICULOUS. Koivu can handle a real 3C role. If the Blue Jackets can live with Koivu as a 3C, so can we for one year. And I would be trading for Getzlaf at the deadline

I don't know what the hell you think you're getting in Dubois and Koivu mate. It's nowhere near worth Danault+KK, let alone adding a 1st pick too.
As I said, PLD barely produces more than Danault, not as good defensively. Koivu is a taxi squad player so who knows what he has left in the tank at 38 soon.
What the hell kinda team you're trying to build here..? Getzlaf..Koivu...Perry...Jesus. No f***ing thanks.

You might as well stop the Dubois trade attempts now if your attempt is Danault with extension or KK and a 1st. If you were them, you would be offended. You play the conservative game all you want... you will miss out. Dubois is a proven playoff warrior and he is 22!

Nothing conservative about my offer, which was Danault+Caufield+1st.
It's a fair return. You want to overpay for a 22yo player who's already asking for a trade and hasn't scored more than 61pts.
Heck, KK alone has the potential to be a similar player to PLD. But no...let's also give Danault? Oh...and a first! Hell f***ing no.

I fear that if we wait till the offseason, some other team's circumstance is going to change and they will offer them a center they want and we miss out. Then you will be complaining about Suzuki, Danault, KK, and will say.. we should have been more aggressive to get Dubois. You do that all the time towards Bergevin, why would you stop now?

Yes well this is making you panic and give a ridiculous offer. Your team is finally, after 5 years, looking solid. Chemistry is seemingly very good as well. You have the best two way ES line in hockey.
Your idea is to trade 2 noticeable players and possibly break that all up for a marginal improvement, at best.
It makes no f***ing sense.
Some of the best trades are the ones not made they say, this is a perfect example.

Think about this... Lets say the Canucks have a bad year and Pettersson takes a slight step back. They might step forward and offer Pettersson for Dubois straight up. Not saying this happens but we all know that teams direction and circumstances change. You wait till the offseason and you run the risks or more teams getting into the Dubois mix and they block our number with the KK+1st offer.

Euh...who cares? If the Canucks are dumb enough to trade Pettersson for freaking Dubois, let them do it.
Your strategy is to one up their stupidity by giving up way too much before them? Wow. Smart thinking! lol

 

[Kriss E]

I'm not trading KK + Danault. My goal is having Dubois/Suzuki/Danault as center line

That makes more sense, just not really feasible financially.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't know what the hell you think you're getting in Dubois and Koivu mate. It's nowhere near worth Danault+KK, let alone adding a 1st pick too.
As I said, PLD barely produces more than Danault, not as good defensively. Koivu is a taxi squad player so who knows what he has left in the tank at 38 soon.
What the hell kinda team you're trying to build here..? Getzlaf..Koivu...Perry...Jesus. No f***ing thanks.


Nothing conservative about my offer, which was Danault+Caufield+1st.
It's a fair return. You want to overpay for a 22yo player who's already asking for a trade and hasn't scored more than 61pts.
Heck, KK alone has the potential to be a similar player to PLD. But no...let's also give Danault? Oh...and a first! Hell f***ing no.

Yes well this is making you panic and give a ridiculous offer. Your team is finally, after 5 years, looking solid. Chemistry is seemingly very good as well. You have the best two way ES line in hockey.
Your idea is to trade 2 noticeable players and possibly break that all up for a marginal improvement, at best.
It makes no f***ing sense.
Some of the best trades are the ones not made they say, this is a perfect example.


Euh...who cares? If the Canucks are dumb enough to trade Pettersson for freaking Dubois, let them do it.
Your strategy is to one up their stupidity by giving up way too much before them? Wow. Smart thinking! lol

Good chat. We both know where we stand on it and I'm fine with it. I realize how deep that trade offer is and it's my max point if I wanted to get the deal done now vs later. If PLD is traded, we can circle back to see how ridiculous or spot on it was . I'm sure you will remember it if I was way off

 

[sandviper]

Shorten up your posts, no need for novels.

He whined about his contract, asks for a trade and is now playing with no interest whatsoever. That's not a good look. He's a good player, he's not a superstar, he's not a big time #1C and people are wanting to throw the moon at Columbus to get him over here. I don't believe it's a good move for our team as a whole if we have to give up significant pieces.

Wasn’t aware of the contract but based on what some reports have said, he seems to be whining about the system and coaching.

In one of Torts pressers, he implied that he developed PLD but now he wants out. Fair enough but what about other players? Why should he develop a guy who wants to leave over guys who want to stay? Anyhow, whatever Torts is trying to say and what he actually means, I think it’s obvious that he’s sour on PLD.

To your point about PLD not being a superstar, etc... Torts also was stunned a 22 yr old who hasn’t really made his mark yet in the league is acting like this. I don’t think Torts is an angel or anything, but between the coach fed up with you, you being fed up with the team, and you’re not exactly wrecking the scoresheets PLUS the CBJ suck right now, we really don’t need to give up the moon for him.

And if CBJ wants more? Well, let them fleece another GM.

 

[Kriss E]

Good chat. We both know where we stand on it and I'm fine with it. I realize how deep that trade offer is and it's my max point if I wanted to get the deal done now vs later. If PLD is traded, we can circle back to see how ridiculous or spot on it was . I'm sure you will remember it if I was way off

We don't know anything about what's said behind the curtains so if he gets trade, for whatever return, doesn't mean something similar from us would have worked.

 

[Vachon23]

for those who have concern about PLD production and saying he's not a 1C, he has the same type of production that had Vincent Lecavalier and Nathan MacKinnon when they where is PLD is right know. I'm not saying he will have the same impact of those 2 (In fact I think he won't) but he will just get better himself too. An other point interesting is that Vinny had the same difficulties with Tort had his age that PLD have.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We don't know anything about what's said behind the curtains so if he gets trade, for whatever return, doesn't mean something similar from us would have worked.

We can compare the actual trade (if it happens) to either of my offers or any other fans package they have came up with... We can and I'm sure we will. However, you likely won't remember my other packages cause you focused on the max point type package.

 

[sandviper]

for those who have concern about PLD production and saying he's not a 1C, he has the same type of production that thad Vincent Lecavalier and Nathan MacKinnon when they where is PLD is right know. I'm not saying he will have the same impact of those 2 (In fact I think he won't) but he will just get better himself too. An other point interesting is that Vinny had the same difficulties with Tort had his age that PLD have.

I think Torts is tough for a lot of young players, but it does sound like more players reflect positively on Torts than negatively when looking back. I forgot who it was but a former player was on Hockey Central at Noon and said Torts rode his ass hard for years. Shouting, criticizing and punishing players was the norm. However, he didn’t do anything without a reason and never got personal when beating on his players. His stories were also corroborated by the hosts on the show from stories they’ve heard.

I’m sure many former players probably want to slam Torts through the plexiglass, but he is who he is. Maybe Jarmo could replace Torts to keep PLD, but doesn’t sound like that’s the root issue.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Torts used Domi at center on the 1st shift of OT against the Sens yesterday. The Jackets lost the game 15 seconds later. Something is going to happen soon: Torts is fired or PLD is traded.

 

[Vachon23]

I think Torts is tough for a lot of young players, but it does sound like more players reflect positively on Torts than negatively when looking back. I forgot whip it was but a former player was on Hockey Central at Noon and said Torts rode his ass hard for years. Shouting, criticizing and punishing players was the norm. However, he didn’t do anything without a reason and never got personal when beating on his players.

I’m sure many former players probably want to slam Torts through the plexiglass, but he is who he is. Maybe Jarmo could replace Torts to keep PLD, but doesn’t sound like that’s the root issue.

Lecavalier actually said that to at La Poche bleu that at the end of his career, he understood that Torts had a positive impact on his career but when he was coach by him it was really tough. They even showed that extrait to PLD when he was in the show !

 

[Vachon23]

That makes more sense, just not really feasible financially.

Depends when they make the trade. At the TDL according to Capfriendly, we would have 3,2m available on the cap so they could find a way to get him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

for those who have concern about PLD production and saying he's not a 1C, he has the same type of production that thad Vincent Lecavalier and Nathan MacKinnon when they where is PLD is right know. I'm not saying he will have the same impact of those 2 (In fact I think he won't) but he will just get better himself too. An other point interesting is that Vinny had the same difficulties with Tort had his age that PLD have.

Agreed! Over the last three seasons (including this one), Dubois's pt/game is around 0.71. That puts him ranked 40th when I run stats center filter on NHL.com. And there are guys like Domi, Duchene, JT Miller, Hoffman, Giroux, Stamkos ahead of him. Why the hell has the NHL have Miller and Hoffman as centers? Come on man... time to update that NHL!

These are the guys ranked ahead of him when you look at pts/game only. Where do you think Dubois fits? I would actually say he is a fringe 1C. What's funny (or interesting to some), is Dubois has 111 pts in 156 games with 46 goals and Danault has 102 pts in 155 games with 25 goals. Dubois is 22 and Danault is 26.

1) McDavid
2) Drai
3) MacKinnon
4) Crosby
5) Malkin
6) Eichel
7 Matthews
8) Point
9) Barkov
10) Zibanejad
11) Bergeron
12) Tavares
13) Scheifele
14) Aho
15) Pettersson
16) Towes
17) Backstrom
18) Couturier
19) ROR
20) Kuznetsov
21) Monahan
22) Larkin
23) Kopitar
24) Krejci
25) Barzal
26) Duchene
27) Schenn
28) Horvat
29) Karlsson
30) Hayes

If you look at last year alone on Cap Friendly (active Players area), Dubois is ranked 28th with his 0.70 pts/game.

 

[Runner77]

I think Torts is tough for a lot of young players, but it does sound like more players reflect positively on Torts than negatively when looking back. I forgot who it was but a former player was on Hockey Central at Noon and said Torts rode his ass hard for years. Shouting, criticizing and punishing players was the norm. However, he didn’t do anything without a reason and never got personal when beating on his players. His stories were also corroborated by the hosts on the show from stories they’ve heard.

I’m sure many former players probably want to slam Torts through the plexiglass, but he is who he is. Maybe Jarmo could replace Torts to keep PLD, but doesn’t sound like that’s the root issue.

What happens between Torts and the player at the bench, at practices or in the dressing room, are within the purview of coaching. However, Torts going to the media to coerce a player to say something, to berate him and escalate a confrontation is Mike Keenan territory — the NHL has long repudiated these over the top methods, seems like Torts thinks he can rewrite the book.

 

[Habs Halifax]

What happens between Torts and the player at the bench, at practices or in the dressing room, are within the purview of coaching. However, Torts going to the media to coerce a player to say something, to berate him and escalate a confrontation is Mike Keenan territory — the NHL has long repudiated these over the top methods, seems like Torts thinks he can rewrite the book.

I wonder what Torts could do with that Oilers roster? . He's an asshole but he does get the best from his players... if they tolerate his aggression and constant attention

I realize how HF boards will react to this but I wonder... Is Dubois a different player without the pressure from a coach like Torts? Look at Drouin for example... Cooper was very hard on him where they sent him to AHL and he took a while to report. Then he came in on a mission for that playoffs and had a solid season after that. Seems like our coaches might be to easy on Drouin? Wondering how our herd feels about that area? And no, not saying Dubois turns into Drouin or fads if he has a more kinder or fair coach like Julien. Just wondering how much of a factor it is with Torts

 

[bsl]

I think we might have Dubois rated the same to be honest. The difference is I'm willing to go deeper to make the deal happen now. I'm trying to use Danault's value he has left this year on top of KK. I understand how you think it's overpayment. It is overpayment but it also gets us Dubois for this season, future seasons, and our cap space is better.

Think of this way... We trade for Dubois in the off season and let Danault walk. What's the difference? We don't get to use Danault's value he has left right now on his current deal and we might have to dig deeper than KK+1st... much deeper. You clearly don't understand that max offer I would go to this season... to get Dubois now! You wait till the offseason and all kinds of new offers comes in and we might not be able to sit at the trade table with our KK+1st anymore

Having PLD, Danault, and Suzuki comes at a cost to Tatar and/or Armia next year. And then we have to give bridge deals to Suzuki and Romanov the following year. If the cap don't grow for 22/23, we might be in trouble! More trouble than you think. I've looked at this and played with several different options. I say use Danault's value now and add him to KK! Live with Evans and Poehling playing center during quarantine. Trade for Getzlaf at the deadline.

Do what it takes to have PLD/Suzuki up the middle with Romanov and Primeau on the back end.

The way Evans is playing might make Danault expendable pretty soon.

 

[Runner77]

I wonder what Torts could do with that Oilers roster? . He's an asshole but he does get the best from his players... if they tolerate his aggression and constant attention

It comes with a huge price tho. I suspect a lot of good players either left on his account or won’t sign where he’s coaching.

 

[sandviper]

What happens between Torts and the player at the bench, at practices or in the dressing room, are within the purview of coaching. However, Torts going to the media to coerce a player to say something, to berate him and escalate a confrontation is Mike Keenan territory — the NHL has long repudiated these over the top methods, seems like Torts thinks he can rewrite the book.

Yeah, that’s a good point. Listening to his presser, he pretty much did what you said but in a not so direct way. While I’m sure he’s pissed AF at PLD, he never really called PLD out but said things like disappointing and confusing in regards to the situation.

We know what he really meant though.

 

[Vachon23]

The way Evans is playing might make Danault expendable pretty soon.

I like how Evans is playing right know but he's far from what Danault bring and Danault right know is the only center with experience and who is able to win faceoff on a regular base

 

[Habs Halifax]

The way Evans is playing might make Danault expendable pretty soon.

Fair is fair... Danault did that to Eller so Evans could possibly be our 3C here sooner than some think. The kid can play center