Free Agents and Trade Thread - Training camp edition

[aingefan]

Agreed 100%. For that reason, I would rather look at options trading Marner. JT does seem like a winger, and he looked exceptional with Matthews.

Shortly after Keefe took over he started stacking lines after penalty kills, and it was effective. He’s creative and logical that way. And agree, JT and Matthews were powerful together.
Before anyone chips in with ‘Willie’s a poor defensive player at C’.....yeah, not well-rounded defensively at the position right now, but I’d think he can improve.

 

[Merrrlin]

Shortly after Keefe took over he started stacking lines after penalty kills, and it was effective. He’s creative and logical that way. And agree, JT and Matthews were powerful together.
Before anyone chips in with ‘Willie’s a poor defensive player at C’.....yeah, not well-rounded defensively at the position right now, but I’d think he can improve.

And if we surround him with big, hardworking players that can grind, I think he could really flourish. Short term options could be Hyman & Robertson, that's a decent 2nd line in my opinion.

 

[Legion34]

IF Nylander is the one to go......

I wonder if.

Hyman/Marner
Mikheyev/Robertson
Barabanov/kapanen

is good enough as top 9 wingers.

I still think an outside the box idea is signing Hall for 7-7.5 (yotes offer was 7.25)

And trade nylander for an upgrade. Hall is a hometown boy who wants a competitive team. Leafs can pay real money and his wife lives here.

does hall have any known relationship with JT? He kinda knows matthews

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Not a ton. Goalies tend to have less value, he's coming off a relatively poor season, and there are other options out there.

Maybe like a 2nd + mid rounder. We wouldnt get a 1st IMO.

Agree. You can just use what we acquired him for as a benchmark. Even then he barely got a first (last pick of the first round I think) and some later picks

 

[Just Rude]

LeBrun on the Rangers winning the Lafreniere sweepstakes & where the Leafs go following their loss to Columbus

Pierre Lebrun on Overdrive: "It is not just that the cap is frozen. There are other teams because of the financial hardship of the pandemic who will have a number different from the cap, much lower. I am telling you right now there are players going to be made available in the fall that you would not have thought of because of the financial hardship in real life, never mind the cap, in real life. And that's where, if you're looking for some silver linings today, it's still a very good leafs team, I think MLSE can exploit more of a have and have not NHL dynamics for the next couple of years ... "

I never really thought of that, but LeBrun has a good point. There are a lot of lower-revenue teams that are probably feeling the effects of the shutdown in a big way, especially with no ticket revenue. The Leafs may be able to use their financial clout and get someone on the cheap, without having to give up significant assets. We would likely still have to ship a couple of pieces out to another team to get the cap room, but it is an interesting take.

Either way, one thing I think most of us can agree on: there will be changes, and likely significant.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Shortly after Keefe took over he started stacking lines after penalty kills, and it was effective. He’s creative and logical that way. And agree, JT and Matthews were powerful together.
Before anyone chips in with ‘Willie’s a poor defensive player at C’.....yeah, not well-rounded defensively at the position right now, but I’d think he can improve.

Well I'm glad Keefe is coach, Babcock
also stacked lines post-PK.

 

[Legion34]

I never really thought of that, but LeBrun has a good point. There are a lot of lower-revenue teams that are probably feeling the effects of the shutdown in a big way, especially with no ticket revenue. The Leafs may be able to use their financial clout and get someone on the cheap, without having to give up significant assets. We would likely still have to ship a couple of pieces out to another team to get the cap room, but it is an interesting take.

Either way, one thing I think most of us can agree on: there will be changes, and likely significant.

and it’s also all about the ownership groups and how they make their money too.

nashville and Calgary are local businesses.
Montreal is live events largely.
Boston is food services for events.


florida and buffalo are already on record as wanting to cut salary.

The pandemic in a weird way helps the leafs. The big teams will have a chance to use their money.

 

[Brobust]

I never really thought of that, but LeBrun has a good point. There are a lot of lower-revenue teams that are probably feeling the effects of the shutdown in a big way, especially with no ticket revenue. The Leafs may be able to use their financial clout and get someone on the cheap, without having to give up significant assets. We would likely still have to ship a couple of pieces out to another team to get the cap room, but it is an interesting take.

Either way, one thing I think most of us can agree on: there will be changes, and likely significant.

Both Mitch Marner and Nylander have cap hits way higher than than their salaries after their next SBs are paid out.

Johnsson and Kapanen are super cheap as well.

The question is how stubborn is Dubas going to be with his faith in this group? We'll find out tomorrow. If he comes out and talks about injuries and bounces, then forget it.

 

[Just Rude]

Agreed 100%. For that reason, I would rather look at options trading Marner. JT does seem like a winger, and he looked exceptional with Matthews.

I'm on board with this as well. If any of the big four go, they have to look at moving Mitch. Love the kid, think he is an exceptional talent, but if we need to free up a lot of money for additional moves, Marner makes the most sense.

It has nothing to do with not liking the kid. It is about making the team better as a whole. In a year or two, Nylander's contract is going to look very, very good - if it doesn't already.

 

[Buds17]

Agree. You can just use what we acquired him for as a benchmark. Even then he barely got a first (last pick of the first round I think) and some later picks

If he is traded to a contender though - which might be my guess considering he's going into his walk year - a 2nd round pick could be closer to a 3rd. He also has a 10 team NTC.

He's a more proven goalie compared to when we acquired him; though the pending UFA status/NTC could counteract that some. Unfortunate that the NHL is removing conditional picks based on re-signing too. I guess much would depend on if there's a team that he'd be interested in re-signing with immediately as a workaround to that.

 

[Buds17]

Both Mitch Marner and Nylander have cap hits way higher than than their salaries after their next SBs are paid out.

Johnsson and Kapanen are super cheap as well.

The question is how stubborn is Dubas going to be with his faith in this group? We'll find out tomorrow. If he comes out and talks about injuries and bounces, then forget it.

In fairness, I wouldn't expect Dubas to be too open during the presser about any intentions of significant changes to come.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think we could see something more along the lines of Kapanen+Dermott for Severson.

Devils need help on the wing and LD badly and having Dermott and Smith that can play both sides makes them pretty flexible on their back end.

Severson would obviously help us with his size, skating, and puck moving ability.

That was along the lines of what I was thinking, but I don't think Severson possesses that kind of value. Maybe if it was Johnsson.


COL 2nd round pick 2020 (~60th overall)
SJS 3rd round pick 2021


LW Andreas Johnsson


RD Damon Severson
ARI/VAN 1st round pick 2020 (~20th overall)


RW Kasperi Kapanen
LD/RD Travis Dermott
RW Jeremy Bracco
COL 2nd round pick 2020 (~60th overall)

I would push hard for that. There are two things to consider here: Money and trade value.

Johnsson gets what pretty much every winger like him has been commanding for the past few years in a trade. If anything, that is on the lower end for a guy who would only get paid like 7.5 mill over the next three years (by the acquisition team; we paid a large signing bonus) in real money when similar players are likely making over 10 mill in that time frame.

A guy like Blake Coleman went for Foote and a early 20's pick this past year. Kapanen could arguably have more value than that. Coleman is cheaper, but Kapanen is a better and younger player. Kapanen is only making a little over 4 mill in the next two years; Severson is making almost 10 mill and has extra year where he is making over 5 mill more. Kapanen is a pending RFA at the end of his 2 years too.

The most recent comparable I could find for Travis Dermott is someone like Mirco Mueller who essentially went for the 49th overall pick, but Dermott is 1.5 years older and was much better/proven than Mueller. Bracco is not worth a whole lot, but I figured why not push for Dermott + Bracco + 60th overall to be worth 18th/19th.

I am not sure if New Jersey is really a "budget team", but I know they are not loaded either and they would save a good amount of money while getting at least 2, if not 3, roster players for the price of 1 and moving down 40 spots in the draft. This would give us ~20th and 44th overall this year, along with a bunch of late round picks. I wanted to push for 85th overall as well, but I think we can extract enough talent to rebuild our pool with the picks we would have.

This would be a pretty productive offseason IMO. We get a guy who can be a solid #3 behind Rielly and Muzzin (and then we can have Holl, Lehtonen and Sandin/Liljegren/UFA as our 4/5/6). We could look at our options with Andersen, but we don't need to move him if we are not confident with Lehner/Holtby/Markstrom/Trade. Same with Nylander and Marner, but I think they try to keep the Big 4 together for at least one more year unless they get an offer they can't refuse. This would give us enough money to re-sign everyone and we can just sign a guy like Vesey to fill the top 9 hole opened by trading both Johnsson and Kapanen (the other is filled by Robertson).

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would like to see the Leafs target Haydn Fleury from the Canes. He took a big step forward this year and would fit as a number 5-6 on our team. Kapanen for Fleury and a 2nd or 3rd.

We are not exactly short on 5/6 defensemen right now... If we are trading Kapanen, it better be for a guy who can be a legit option in our top 4, even if we have to include Dermott to get it done.

 

[TheShape]

I feel like there is a trade in there with Carolina. Wonder if the leafs could somehow get that 1st rounder back?

Andersen to hurricanes makes a lot of sense, they have a plethora of D, we have too many forwards.

 

[aingefan]

That was along the lines of what I was thinking, but I don't think Severson possesses that kind of value. Maybe if it was Johnsson.


COL 2nd round pick 2020 (~60th overall)
SJS 3rd round pick 2021


LW Andreas Johnsson


RD Damon Severson
ARI/VAN 1st round pick 2020 (~20th overall)


RW Kasperi Kapanen
LD/RD Travis Dermott
RW Jeremy Bracco
COL 2nd round pick 2020 (~60th overall)

I would push hard for that. There are two things to consider here: Money and trade value.

Johnsson gets what pretty much every winger like him has been commanding for the past few years in a trade. If anything, that is on the lower end for a guy who would only get paid like 7.5 mill over the next three years (by the acquisition team; we paid a large signing bonus) in real money when similar players are likely making over 10 mill in that time frame.

A guy like Blake Coleman went for Foote and a early 20's pick this past year. Kapanen could arguably have more value than that. Coleman is cheaper, but Kapanen is a better and younger player. Kapanen is only making a little over 4 mill in the next two years; Severson is making almost 10 mill and has extra year where he is making over 5 mill more. Kapanen is a pending RFA at the end of his 2 years too.

The most recent comparable I could find for Travis Dermott is someone like Mirco Mueller who essentially went for the 49th overall pick, but Dermott is 1.5 years older and was much better/proven than Mueller. Bracco is not worth a whole lot, but I figured why not push for Dermott + Bracco + 60th overall to be worth 18th/19th.

I am not sure if New Jersey is really a "budget team", but I know they are not loaded either and they would save a good amount of money while getting at least 2, if not 3, roster players for the price of 1 and moving down 40 spots in the draft. This would give us ~20th and 44th overall this year, along with a bunch of late round picks. I wanted to push for 85th overall as well, but I think we can extract enough talent to rebuild our pool with the picks we would have.

This would be a pretty productive offseason IMO. We get a guy who can be a solid #3 behind Rielly and Muzzin (and then we can have Holl, Lehtonen and Sandin/Liljegren/UFA as our 4/5/6). We could look at our options with Andersen, but we don't need to move him if we are not confident with Lehner/Holtby/Markstrom/Trade. Same with Nylander and Marner, but I think they try to keep the Big 4 together for at least one more year unless they get an offer they can't refuse. This would give us enough money to re-sign everyone and we can just sign a guy like Vesey to fill the top 9 hole opened by trading both Johnsson and Kapanen (the other is filled by Robertson).

Ya know, for a long time, I thought Bracco would end up playing with Auston.
I have no real idea what the actual deal is with him, but his skills line up with JT/AM, and his PP skills aren’t really in doubt. maybe there’s an opportunity for him here after all?

 

[Gallagbi]

I feel like there is a trade in there with Carolina. Wonder if the leafs could somehow get that 1st rounder back?

Andersen to hurricanes makes a lot of sense, they have a plethora of D, we have too many forwards.

Carolina looks like they're in a great shape, not sure they'll be looking to move out core pieces right now

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Not a ton. Goalies tend to have less value, he's coming off a relatively poor season, and there are other options out there.

Maybe like a 2nd + mid rounder. We wouldnt get a 1st IMO.

Cam Talbot went for 57 + 79 effectively as a pending UFA at 28. Andersen will be 31 at the start of the year. Talbot was much cheaper on cap, but also had no real experience as a starter.

Bishop could be another one. He was a true rental (only half a year left on his deal) and had retention, but he was the same age as Andersen was right now when he was traded and was having a poor year in Tampa when he was dealt. Bishop had higher highs, but Andersen was a lot more consistent and even this year was not as bad as Bishop was in the year he was ultimately dealt. Bishop effectively went for Cernak, who was a relatively recent mid-2nd round pick who was good enough to make the NHL two years after the trade.

Otherwise, we are either reaching for Andersen from 4 years ago (late 1st + mid 2nd + Bernier) or a guy like Raanta, who was effectively the same kind of value as Talbot and was able, along with Derek Stepan, to get 7th overall and DeAngelo (who was acquired for an early 2nd the year prior).

Andersen is a proven, legit starter making fair money on the cap and will only cost the team acquiring him 1 mill in real dollars next year. If you want to pay Holtby, Lehner or Markstrom, you are likely looking at both more cap dollars and definitely more real dollars (albeit on a longer team deal as well). He is better/more valuable than Raanta and Talbot, so I think we can get a late 1st out of him from the right team.

We could do Andersen+ for Matt Murray from PIT, or maybe Andersen for Mrazek and the best combo of #41/#54/#69 we can get (flip Mrazek elsewhere for whatever we can get). If we like the UFA options, then the latter works quite well for both teams: CAR gets a legit starter for almost no real money and a reasonable cost in terms of assets, Leafs get assets and a replacement goalie for nothing more than money.

 

[Gallagbi]

Cam Talbot went for 57 + 79 effectively as a pending UFA at 28. Andersen will be 31 at the start of the year. Talbot was much cheaper on cap, but also had no real experience as a starter.

Bishop could be another one. He was a true rental (only half a year left on his deal) and had retention, but he was the same age as Andersen was right now when he was traded and was having a poor year in Tampa when he was dealt. Bishop had higher highs, but Andersen was a lot more consistent and even this year was not as bad as Bishop was in the year he was ultimately dealt. Bishop effectively went for Cernak, who was a relatively recent mid-2nd round pick who was good enough to make the NHL two years after the trade.

Otherwise, we are either reaching for Andersen from 4 years ago (late 1st + mid 2nd + Bernier) or a guy like Raanta, who was effectively the same kind of value as Talbot and was able, along with Derek Stepan, to get 7th overall and DeAngelo (who was acquired for an early 2nd the year prior).

Andersen is a proven, legit starter making fair money on the cap and will only cost the team acquiring him 1 mill in real dollars next year. If you want to pay Holtby, Lehner or Markstrom, you are likely looking at both more cap dollars and definitely more real dollars (albeit on a longer team deal as well). He is better/more valuable than Raanta and Talbot, so I think we can get a late 1st out of him from the right team.

We could do Andersen+ for Matt Murray from PIT, or maybe Andersen for Mrazek and the best combo of #41/#54/#69 we can get (flip Mrazek elsewhere for whatever we can get). If we like the UFA options, then the latter works quite well for both teams: CAR gets a legit starter for almost no real money and a reasonable cost in terms of assets, Leafs get assets and a replacement goalie for nothing more than money.

I'd expect 2 seconds for him right now.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Ya know, for a long time, I thought Bracco would end up playing with Auston.
I have no real idea what the actual deal is with him, but his skills line up with JT/AM, and his PP skills aren’t really in doubt. maybe there’s an opportunity for him here after all?

If we trade Nylander or Marner, there is a spot open for someone like him. However I think it is more likely he is given his shot elsewhere. New Jersey is a good spot for him. It's not too far from home, they have two good, young core centers down the middle in Hischier and Hughes, and he has a realistic shot at cracking their top 9 next year (even with Kapanen in the organization). They have other young wingers coming up, but they all need more time. Bracco gives them a guy who can step in from Day 1. If he flops, then they still get good value out of that deal regardless. If he does not, he could be a point-producing winger for almost nothing.

 

[supermann_98]

Both Mitch Marner and Nylander have cap hits way higher than than their salaries after their next SBs are paid out.

Johnsson and Kapanen are super cheap as well.

The question is how stubborn is Dubas going to be with his faith in this group? We'll find out tomorrow. If he comes out and talks about injuries and bounces, then forget it.

Exactly. Whatever verbal promises he’s made should be flushed down the toilet, as the results have fallen well below expectations.

“We have no desire to trade our young talented players”

“As long as I’m here we will not trade William Nylander”

“Mitch is a big part of our future”

Paraphrasing those quotes to some degree, but he’s got to make changes, his verbal promises be-damned. Nobody except Matthews and JT (NMC) (and maybe Reilly & Muzzin) should be off the table.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd expect 2 seconds for him right now.

So that is effectively what that CAR deal is then.

If we could get Mrazek, 41 and 54, then I think that is a great return for one year of Andersen. We'd have 3 picks in the 2nd round this year, two of which are in a range where there are some solid prospects. I would trade down from 54, or use it to trade up from 41 or 44.

Mrazek could maybe get us a future 3rd at the absolute best. However he is mostly just a cash dump, as he makes 2 mill more than Andersen next year (real dollars) and is a secondary tandem-starter at best.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I feel like there is a trade in there with Carolina. Wonder if the leafs could somehow get that 1st rounder back?

Andersen to hurricanes makes a lot of sense, they have a plethora of D, we have too many forwards.

I don't think the Leafs need to get that 1st rounder back, but Carolina is a good fit for Andersen, even if it just for picks.

 

[Da Murf]

Both Mitch Marner and Nylander have cap hits way higher than than their salaries after their next SBs are paid out.

Johnsson and Kapanen are super cheap as well.

The question is how stubborn is Dubas going to be with his faith in this group? We'll find out tomorrow. If he comes out and talks about injuries and bounces, then forget it.

No reason to say otherwise. There is nothing to gain from saying we are looking to make trades, the teams that want to make them will let Dubas know.

 

[aingefan]

If we trade Nylander or Marner, there is a spot open for someone like him. However I think it is more likely he is given his shot elsewhere. New Jersey is a good spot for him. It's not too far from home, they have two good, young core centers down the middle in Hischier and Hughes, and he has a realistic shot at cracking their top 9 next year (even with Kapanen in the organization). They have other young wingers coming up, but they all need more time. Bracco gives them a guy who can step in from Day 1. If he flops, then they still get good value out of that deal regardless. If he does not, he could be a point-producing winger for almost nothing.

A change is scenery might be best, agreed, but the fit is potentially very good on TO too for the same reasons (cost, sheltered in a way, position to succeed) particularly in the low-odd scenario where Mitch is dealt.
JT/AM/JB - 1st line
NR/AK/ZH - 3rd line
With Bracco and Hyman relatively interchangeable, and possibly Willie centring another line with Kap and AJ.
Might be a circumstance where he becomes found money.

 

[ToneDog]

A change is scenery might be best, agreed, but the fit is potentially very good on TO too for the same reasons (cost, sheltered in a way, position to succeed) particularly in the low-odd scenario where Mitch is dealt.
JT/AM/JB - 1st line
NR/AK/ZH - 3rd line
With Bracco and Hyman relatively interchangeable, and possibly Willie centring another line with Kap and AJ.
Might be a circumstance where he becomes found money.

Bracco is more likely to be moved than be put on the #1 line. Nylander has proven he is not a centre and odds are he is will be traded.