Free Agents and Trade Thread - Offseason on Hold Edition

[slates77]

Marner for Seth Jones who says no

 

[slates77]

2nd one. I love Pietrangelo but a deal with him would likely look something like a 10x7, taking him from ages 31-37. I would rather sign a lower end, lower risk guy like Brodie or Tanev and keep Rielly. Also considering Rielly is only making $5 million, it isnt a given he would have to go in any Pietraneglo signing.

Second one, although if we had Rielly - Petro I would nut

 

[Buds17]

Which defense core would you prefer going forward?:

Dermott - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Lehtonen
Liljegren

or

Rielly - UFA (Brodie/Hamonic/Tanev)
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Dermott
Lehtonen/Liljegren

With option #1, you look to trade Rielly for an ELC forward to replace Kerfoot/Johnsson subtractions that are necessary in either scenario.

Not sure. I suppose Pietrangelo or Rielly and UFA would end up being about the same AAV on the cap? Maybe more years on the Pietrangelo contract though? Under the first scenario, I might opt to place Muzzin with Pietrangelo as more of a workhorse pairing. The second scenario would avoid having a quite inexperienced (NHL) pairing. Good hypothetical, tough call.

 

[kb]

Marner for Seth Jones who says no

Both teams.

 

[stickty111]

Both teams.

Pretty much.
On another note

Good point here

 

[CatchyTune]

Marner for Seth Jones who says no

Jones has 2 years until UFA. No thanks. There are more affordable options out there.

 

[Stephen]

With the way things are in this stagnant flat cap world, there's going to be some cheap short term options flooding the market. That would be my silver lining.

 

[hamzarocks]

Does a trade around marner for boesor++ make sense for the two teams? I love marner as a player and would love to see him be a leaf lifer but the cap complications and imbalance of offense to defense makes me wonder if a trade is in order. Was thinking which team says no for a

Marner for Boesor + Pod/Hoglander + 2021/2022 1st.

We get a crap ton of future value and can fit boesor around 8 million on his new deal provided he puts up 75+ with 34. Podzolskin/hoaglander are quality winger options with pod being a potential nylander replacement if we deal him down the line and highlander being a kapanen replacement if we deal him. The nucks first with marner should be in the mids 20s. We save enough space to comfortably add a brodie/tanev/hamonic straight up and with a kerfoot/johnsson deal we could have enough money for Pietrangelo in the offseason.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Does a trade around marner for boesor++ make sense for the two teams? I love marner as a player and would love to see him be a leaf lifer but the cap complications and imbalance of offense to defense makes me wonder if a trade is in order. Was thinking which team says no for a

Marner for Boesor + Pod/Hoglander + 2021/2022 1st.

We get a crap ton of future value and can fit boesor around 8 million on his new deal provided he puts up 75+ with 34. Podzolskin/hoaglander are quality winger options with pod being a potential nylander replacement if we deal him down the line and highlander being a kapanen replacement if we deal him. The nucks first with marner should be in the mids 20s. We save enough space to comfortably add a brodie/tanev/hamonic straight up and with a kerfoot/johnsson deal we could have enough money for Pietrangelo in the offseason.

Um.. the Canucks are in a worse cap situation than we are. Also no.

They have $25M committed to Sutter/Beagle/Roussel/Baertschi/Eriksson who all combined for just 23 goals last year. None of thise guys are movable for cheap.

Plus the $3M recapture penalty for Luongo and the Canucks are in a horrible spot.

At least we only had Marleau and Zaitsev to deal with.

 

[LeafParade]

I would hop on moving Johnsson quickly because I think many teams in worse cap shape than Toronto are going to be trying to unload players. Regardless of how you look at it, someone has to be dumped to bring back Soup and Dermott.

I may even just go with the current D and hope that someone steps up rather than pick up long-term salary. If we assume the cap isn't going up for a while, the Leafs need to maintain capspace to bring back players in the next couple of summers. I don't think its smart to cap out this fall, and then have no flexibility the next couple of summers. There will be vets signing cheap because teams are capped out.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What kind of offer would Josh Leivo get in UFA? He is coming off of a major injury, so a team may not be willing to give him any kind of long term commitment at this point, but he is young (27), came off of a season where he was on pace for almost 20 goals and over 40 points, has always had great possession numbers, and the market is pretty thin for quality mid-tier talent (which is probably why Galchenyuk is going to get a fairly good opportunity to rebound himself).

Could be a good opportunity for a reunion if we trade Johnsson. After Dubas was willing to trade him to give him a shot to play, and the Leafs replaced Babcock with Keefe (whom he excelled under with the Marlies), he could like what we could offer to let him rehab his value. A top 9 role with Kerfoot and Kapanen on top of PP time (it would be nice to add his RH shot to the unit) could be the most attractive offer he gets, and he gets to play at home once again.

 

[Menzinger]

Pretty much.
On another note

Good point here

Yikes

 

[Menzinger]

What kind of offer would Josh Leivo get in UFA? He is coming off of a major injury, so a team may not be willing to give him any kind of long term commitment at this point, but he is young (27), came off of a season where he was on pace for almost 20 goals and over 40 points, has always had great possession numbers, and the market is pretty thin for quality mid-tier talent (which is probably why Galchenyuk is going to get a fairly good opportunity to rebound himself).

Could be a good opportunity for a reunion if we trade Johnsson. After Dubas was willing to trade him to give him a shot to play, and the Leafs replaced Babcock with Keefe (whom he excelled under with the Marlies), he could like what we could offer to let him rehab his value. A top 9 role with Kerfoot and Kapanen on top of PP time (it would be nice to add his RH shot to the unit) could be the most attractive offer he gets, and he gets to play at home once again.

I think it would depend on his opprtunity for icetime.

Depth player free agents i think will get squeezed this offseason. So maybe 1 year at 850k-1.5 aav?

 

[Menzinger]

Which defense core would you prefer going forward?:

Dermott - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Lehtonen
Liljegren

or

Rielly - UFA (Brodie/Hamonic/Tanev)
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Dermott
Lehtonen/Liljegren

With option #1, you look to trade Rielly for an ELC forward to replace Kerfoot/Johnsson subtractions that are necessary in either scenario.

Probably the 2nd beacuse it would be the least disruptive to the team's existing core.

 

[stickty111]

Yikes

Wierd it's all Toronto talk when it comes to the cap, when in reality we are okay. We just decided to pay our stars, but teams like Vancouver and NYI have an actual problem because they paid bad players

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I would hop on moving Johnsson quickly because I think many teams in worse cap shape than Toronto are going to be trying to unload players. Regardless of how you look at it, someone has to be dumped to bring back Soup and Dermott.

I may even just go with the current D and hope that someone steps up rather than pick up long-term salary. If we assume the cap isn't going up for a while, the Leafs need to maintain capspace to bring back players in the next couple of summers. I don't think its smart to cap out this fall, and then have no flexibility the next couple of summers. There will be vets signing cheap because teams are capped out.

Dermott will be cheap. He doesn't have arb rights, doesn't put up points and isn't a target for an agressive offer sheet.

Mikheyev you can take to arb for a 1 year deal and see how he plays in his 2nd season. Was on pace for 48 points as a 25 year old rookie but only played half the season. He won't make a lot either.

We can find a way to keep everybody next year without being forced to move a contract. We hold the advantage in any trade talks this offseason.

 

[LeafParade]

Dermott will be cheap. He doesn't have arb rights, doesn't put up points and isn't a target for an agressive offer sheet.

Mikheyev you can take to arb for a 1 year deal and see how he plays in his 2nd season. Was on pace for 48 points as a 25 year old rookie but only played half the season. He won't make a lot either.

We can find a way to keep everybody next year without being forced to move a contract. We hold the advantage in any trade talks this offseason.

Someone is getting moved if you want to bring bank Soup and Dermott. If you bring everyone back except those 2, and leave 2 roster spots open, there is like 1.8 million available for both. (assuming a 22 man roster)
This assumes Spezza gets 750k, and 1.6 M for 2 unknown scratches (800k each).

Johnsson is probably toast.

 

[Kiwi]

What kind of offer would Josh Leivo get in UFA? He is coming off of a major injury, so a team may not be willing to give him any kind of long term commitment at this point, but he is young (27), came off of a season where he was on pace for almost 20 goals and over 40 points, has always had great possession numbers, and the market is pretty thin for quality mid-tier talent (which is probably why Galchenyuk is going to get a fairly good opportunity to rebound himself).

Could be a good opportunity for a reunion if we trade Johnsson. After Dubas was willing to trade him to give him a shot to play, and the Leafs replaced Babcock with Keefe (whom he excelled under with the Marlies), he could like what we could offer to let him rehab his value. A top 9 role with Kerfoot and Kapanen on top of PP time (it would be nice to add his RH shot to the unit) could be the most attractive offer he gets, and he gets to play at home once again.

I doubt he wants to come back after he struggled to find playing time during his tenure here

He'd be useful at the right price point as well

Yikes

Mismanagement at its finest

Overpaying depth is a death sentence and I hope we remember that when we negotiate with Clifford (who I like by the way)

 

[Stephen]

Some of the recently rebuilt teams like the Rangers, Philadelphia and Vancouver are in the awkward position of having signed some very expensive UFA deals while their youth cores are still emerging from their ELC's. The cap commitments to guys like Kreider, van Riemsdyk, Hayes, Myers, JT Miller, Loui Eriksson, Sutter, Edler is terrifying.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I doubt he wants to come back after he struggled to find playing time during his tenure here

He'd be useful at the right price point as well

That was under Babcock, and it wouldn't be as much of a concern now. The top 9 job would effectively be his to lose if we traded Johnsson.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Benning could teach a masterclass on being a goof.

Matthews+Tavares+Marner+Nylander=40.487

Eriksson+Toffoli+Sutter+Pearson+Roussel+Beagle+Myers+Baertschi+Luongo+Ferland+Spooner=40.575*

And this is after they got rid of Gagner's 3.15 cap hit.

*Baertschi's buried cap hit

 

[Kiwi]

That was under Babcock, and it wouldn't be as much of a concern now. The top 9 job would effectively be his to lose if we traded Johnsson.

There's a young guy who was in the CHL this year and a Russian arriving next season who might dispute that

He struggled to fit here, maybe that's Babcock but I would think there is better opportunities for him elsewhere

 

[Knies iT]

What kind of offer would Josh Leivo get in UFA? He is coming off of a major injury, so a team may not be willing to give him any kind of long term commitment at this point, but he is young (27), came off of a season where he was on pace for almost 20 goals and over 40 points, has always had great possession numbers, and the market is pretty thin for quality mid-tier talent (which is probably why Galchenyuk is going to get a fairly good opportunity to rebound himself).

Could be a good opportunity for a reunion if we trade Johnsson. After Dubas was willing to trade him to give him a shot to play, and the Leafs replaced Babcock with Keefe (whom he excelled under with the Marlies), he could like what we could offer to let him rehab his value. A top 9 role with Kerfoot and Kapanen on top of PP time (it would be nice to add his RH shot to the unit) could be the most attractive offer he gets, and he gets to play at home once again.

I'm hopeful that he'd be open to coming back on a short-term "prove it" deal. Ideally 1-2 years at sub 1.5 mill. That was a very bad trade in hindsight, regardless of whether it was a favour or not.

One of the best possession players i've seen come through the Marlies. Dubas said he had some of the best puck control below the goal line that he's seen at that level. Part of the problem with the Johnsson - Kerfoot - Kapanen mix is that there are too many one-and-done chances with that trio; they need a possession player to muck it up on that line. Always thought he had underrated toughness and he elevated that part of his game in Vancouver, even fought Kesler down the stretch last year.

I'm sure he would need assurance that he will get regular minutes, as that's why he asked out in the first place. The same promise has probably been made to Barabanov, so this would all be contingent on moving out several bodies up front.

 

[meefer]

I don't know much about Joshua Norris, but if I'm Ottawa, I'm keeping Tkachuk+5th overall over Mitch@ $11 mil/season, and it's an easy decision.

From Toronto's side, obviously a dream deal. We get a 1st line winger making nothing for 2 more years, a #5 pick in a great draft, and free up $10 mil in cap room to sign Pieterangelo? Are you kidding me?

A+ deal for Toronto, C- for Ottawa.

Thank you for the kindly worded admonishment.

I believe Tkachuk's deal is up after next year. I would think he would command something in the same range of salary as Nylander. Maybe a bit more. Certainly, Tkachuk brings different aspects to the game when compared to Marner, but points drive contracts and Brady in his second year lagged behind Mitch by some 25 points, what he does in his final year...who knows, but he'd have to double his points from this year to still fall short of Marner's point total last year. I'm very high on BT, I value his skills, but I can't see him ever becoming the impact player Marner is. Thus the high ask.

 

[Advanced stats]

The answer to our cap problems and depth next season has a glaring solution. It's become obvious that it's a 3 step process:

1. Sign TJ. Brodie, hopefully a 5 year term, hometown discount.
2. Trade a package of AJ and Kerfoot for a pick and defensive minded 3c. Incoming 3c could be a 25-30 point player for all I care, his primary role is a shutdown one.
3. Win.

Hyman/Matthews/Nylander
Mikky/Tavares/Marner
Barbanov/XXX/Kapanen
Robertson/Gauthier/Engvall/Spezza

Rielly/Brodie
Muzzin/Hill
Dermott/Liljeren
Sandin/Lehtonen


The obvious issue is finding a Defensive 3c on a good contact.