Free Agents and Trade Thread - Coronavirus Edition

[SeaOfBlue]

Know what else is easily replaceable? Forwards 7-8-9. Mikheyev is exempt, we can game the system with a UFA Hyman. Say we can sign (or trade a KK/AJ) for a solid borderline Muzzin class D with term, and Dermott emerges as a protection worthy young top 4 dman. Why weaken the roster by trading away hard to get things that help the team now and in the future when we can just let Seattle have a forward we can replace?

Option 1- Add a top 4 D, plan to protect 4 IF Dermott emerges (bold = exposed)
Next year
Top 9 F: Tavares/Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Hyman/Kapanen/Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Engvall
Top 5 D: Rielly/Muzzin/xxx/Dermott/Holl

Post expansion = Same less one of KK/Kerfoot/Engvall/Holl

Option 2 - Go lean, ensure that we only have 3 D worth protecting
Next year
Top 9F - Tavares/Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Hyman/Kapanen/Mikheyev/Kerfoot/Engvall
Top 5D- Rielly/Muzzin/Dermott/Holl/Sandin

Post expansion- same less Holl

Sure potentially losing Kapanen is slightly more painful in vacuum than Holl, but 4 worthy defenders + Holl before and a guaranteed 4 after lets us be a better team in both years.

That Kap/Kerfoot/ Johnsson are "a lot more valuable than any 4 in the league" is flat out crazy. If that was reality one would not be a Leaf today.

Of course, if Dermott doesn't emerge the point becomes moot and we let them choose between two of the defenders, after being a better team in 20-21 than if we jettisoned a player to position for expansion

Option 2 is a heck of a lot more appealing to the Leafs.

Would rather lose Holl or a backup than Kapanen, plus we have to pay big assets to acquire that top 4 defenseman (because you are not going to be able to afford to pay the quality of defenseman you want in UFA with our cap structure).

EDIT: For the record, only 6 teams protected 4 defensemen, and only 1 team protected 5 defensemen. Florida protected Pysyk and Petrovic as their #3 and #4's and ended up losing Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault as a result. The rest of the teams were going to be screwed either way (Nashville and Pittsburgh), or had nothing to really lose anyways (Arizona, LA, NYI, NJD).

Nate Schmidt, Brayden McNabb, Colin Miller, TVR, Marc Methot were the best defensemen exposed. Considering what they were at the time, and who the teams protected over them, hardly anything amazing.

 

[Menzinger]

Re Dermott and expansion, if we have the cap to add a 4th protection worthy defenseman I could easily see us go the 4+4 route rather than 7+3. To often people get hyper focused on making sure we give Seattle the worst player possible rather than prioritizing having the best team before and after expansion, and they're not the same thing.

Another indication of this route would be if Hyman isn't signed in good time.

At the moment since im predicting the Leafs will retool the D this lffseason, i think the 4v4 path will be what happens. The team will lose a top 9 winger, whoch sucks but isnt thr end of the world

 

[4thline]

Option 2 is a heck of a lot more appealing to the Leafs.

Would rather lose Holl or a backup than Kapanen, plus we have to pay big assets to acquire that top 4 defenseman (because you are not going to be able to afford to pay the quality of defenseman you want in UFA with our cap structure).

EDIT: For the record, only 6 teams protected 4 defensemen, and only 1 team protected 5 defensemen. Florida protected Pysyk and Petrovic as their #3 and #4's and ended up losing Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault as a result. The rest of the teams were going to be screwed either way (Nashville and Pittsburgh), or had nothing to really lose anyways (Arizona, LA, NYI, NJD).

By your estimation we have 3 different forwards each worth significantly more than your run of the mill 4 D.

"Screwed either away" is a very negative slant on "good deep well balanced teams", which is exactly what we'd be if we add another d this off season

Being a better team > losing a slightly worse player in one inevitable transaction

 

[SeaOfBlue]

At the moment since im predicting the Leafs will retool the D this lffseason, i think the 4v4 path will be what happens. The team will lose a top 9 winger, whoch sucks but isnt thr end of the world

They'd actually lose a top 6 forward.

 

[Menzinger]

They'd actually lose a top 6 forward.

Yeah, but depending on whose left if trades are made this offseason i dont think it will be devastating

 

[SeaOfBlue]

By your estimation we have 3 different forwards each worth significantly more than your run of the mill 4 D.

"Screwed either away" is a very negative slant on "good deep well balanced teams", which is exactly what we'd be if we add another d this off season

Being a better team > losing a slightly worse player in one inevitable transaction

Well in Pittsburgh's case it was they were going to lose Fleury or Murray. In Nashville's case it was they lose Neal or they lose from arguably the best top 4 in the league. I do not anticipate the Leafs are going to be in either of those situations unless we put ourselves in that position. We can have a very balanced team without being in those positions.

A run of the mill #4 + Holl is not worth more than Johnsson, Kapanen and futures, and that is your choice. A run of the mill #4 is hardly worth one of those forwards, and we won't even need a run-of-the-mill #4 going forward with Sandin and Liljegren coming up.

Also, Holl is not slightly worse than Kapanen. He is significantly worse.

 

[4thline]

Well in Pittsburgh's case it was they were going to lose Fleury or Murray. In Nashville's case it was they lose Neal or they lose from arguably the best top 4 in the league. I do not anticipate the Leafs are going to be in either of those situations unless we put ourselves in that position. We can have a very balanced team without being in those positions.

A run of the mill #4 + Holl is not worth more than Johnsson, Kapanen and futures, and that is your choice. A run of the mill #4 is hardly worth one of those forwards, and we won't even need a run-of-the-mill #4 going forward with Sandin and Liljegren coming up.

Also, Holl is not slightly worse than Kapanen. He is significantly worse.

You're externalizing an entire year of hockey, down playing the potential quality of d man we can add, and completely ignoring the potential loss from trading Dermott too soon. What we do (or don't do) for next season cannot be ignored in the expansion equation.

Stop thinking "run of the mill 4" start thinking "d-man equivalent to your (arguably inflated) valuation of Kapanen/Johnsson" (ie, near Muzzin quality)

We add this calibre of dman with the expectation of protecting them. Then Dermott either forces us to choose between him and what's left of Kap/AJ, or he doesn't. But trading him a year in advance because of arbitrarily deciding 7+3 is the only way to go a full season in advance is silly.

 

[facelessjoe1990]

what if we give Seattle a 2nd for them to take Holl or some player that we can do without? Would that work?

 

[Kiwi]

Well in Pittsburgh's case it was they were going to lose Fleury or Murray. In Nashville's case it was they lose Neal or they lose from arguably the best top 4 in the league. I do not anticipate the Leafs are going to be in either of those situations unless we put ourselves in that position. We can have a very balanced team without being in those positions.

A run of the mill #4 + Holl is not worth more than Johnsson, Kapanen and futures, and that is your choice. A run of the mill #4 is hardly worth one of those forwards, and we won't even need a run-of-the-mill #4 going forward with Sandin and Liljegren coming up.

Also, Holl is not slightly worse than Kapanen. He is significantly worse.

Ah? Holl is on our shutdown pair taking tough defensive minutes and Kapanen is a 3rd line RW behind Marner and Nylander

I'm not going to get into who's "better" but I know which one is more important to the team right now and it isn't Kapanen

Who I really like and had as an Avatar by the way

 

[4thline]

Ah? Holl is on our shutdown pair taking tough defensive minutes and Kapanen is a 3rd line RW behind Marner and Nylander

I'm not going to get into who's "better" but I know which one is more important to the team right now and it isn't Kapanen

Who I really like and had as an Avatar by the way

And question really isn't about Holl, it's about unnecessarily forcing ourselves to choose between adding a difference making defenceman this off-season or dumping Dermott before we really know what he is.

 

[Magic Man]

Risto and Dumba blow defensively, they are objectively bad in that area of the game and after the Barrie experiment I'm not keen on us putting our heads in a noose long term with that type of AAV attached to it

Johnsson should be the player to go, he's behind Hyman and Mikheyev on the left, our best forward prospect is a LW (Robertson) and he doesn't have the ability to play center

I like Spezza and want to resign him but I'm not keen on giving him 3C minutes or responsibilities at his age, just keep Kerfoot at 3C and "load manage" Spezza

While both are similar to Barrie in terms of their defensive games being challenged, they're much different in their physical approach to the game. Risto and Dumba in this day and age are pretty gritty players. Barrie was more one dimensional, but good at that dimension.

Johnsson on a similar note brings a bit more spice to the game then Kerfoot. I think like Hyman if developed right he can bring an element that the club needs to maintain while gaining ground offensively as the years pass. Kerfoot brought more than I thought he would in the grit and defensive areas though and I completely see the logic in moving Johnsson instead because of his ability to play the middle. I just think Johnsson is better, has more upside and brings more sand at 100K cheaper for the same contract. With Engvall's stagnation I'm not sure I trust penciling him in above line #4 even on the left. He could be a line drag.

Spezza still has some game. Engvall has some game. Between the two of them I feel pretty confident one of them could take that role. Especially, if another targeted UFA could be had to add an element of depth.

 

[Kiwi]

While both are similar to Barrie in terms of their defensive games being challenged, they're much different in their physical approach to the game. Risto and Dumba in this day and age are pretty gritty players. Barrie was more one dimensional, but good at that dimension.

Johnsson on a similar note brings a bit more spice to the game then Kerfoot. I think like Hyman if developed right he can bring an element that the club needs to maintain while gaining ground offensively as the years pass. Kerfoot brought more than I thought he would in the grit and defensive areas though and I completely see the logic in moving Johnsson instead because of his ability to play the middle. I just think Johnsson is better, has more upside and brings more sand at 100K cheaper for the same contract. With Engvall's stagnation I'm not sure I trust penciling him in above line #4 even on the left. He could be a line drag.

Spezza still has some game. Engvall has some game. Between the two of them I feel pretty confident one of them could take that role. Especially, if another targeted UFA could be had to add an element of depth.

Who cares if their more physical than Barrie if they still have defensive results like him? A bad outcome is a bad outcome, no matter how you get there

Johnsson is making a reasonable amount of money with term, has very little positional flexibly and has had some injury problems over recent years, he's also on the smaller side so I'm not sure how he will hold up with his grittier style of game either

I like both Spezza and Engvall but I don't think Engvall is a center and I think we should be nursing Spezza over a full season to get the best out of him so I don't see that as cover for 3C

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Leafs - Islanders
Alexander Kerfoot, Jeremy Bracco & Calle Rosen (Maybe a pick?)
for
Scott Mayfield & Casey Cizikas

Leafs - Devils
Andreas Johnsson & Travis Dermott (Small Add?)
for
Miles Wood & Damon Severson (Small Add?)

HYMAN - MATTHEWS - MARNER
NYLANDER - TAVARES - MICHEYEV
WOOD - CIZIKAS - KAPANEN
CLIFFORD - SPEZZA - ENGVALL

RIELLY - SEVERSON
MUZZIN - MAYFIELD
SANDIN - HOLL

ANDERSEN
CAMPBELL

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Leafs - Islanders
Alexander Kerfoot, Jeremy Bracco & Calle Rosen (Maybe a pick?)
for
Scott Mayfield & Casey Cizikas

Leafs - Devils
Andreas Johnsson & Travis Dermott (Small Add?)
for
Miles Wood & Damon Severson (Small Add?)

HYMAN - MATTHEWS - MARNER
NYLANDER - TAVARES - MICHEYEV
WOOD - CIZIKAS - KAPANEN
CLIFFORD - SPEZZA - ENGVALL

RIELLY - SEVERSON
MUZZIN - MAYFIELD
SANDIN - HOLL

ANDERSEN
CAMPBELL

Why do the isles consider that deal? Really bad ^

 

[Leaffan1991]

Why do the isles consider that deal? Really bad ^

Cizikas alone is better than Kerfoot plus Bracco

 

[Legion34]

Small market teams won’t be able to afford the losses if the season is over. We have to bail them out with revenue sharing so.i don’t feel bad.

what teams would be under the gun to shed salary?

columbus? Florida? Arizona? Who else?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Boy, can you imagine if we were buyers at the deadline?

 

[Al14]

Boy, can you imagine if we were buyers at the deadline?

Dubas checked his virus spreadsheet and decided he wouldn't buy a single thing other than toilet paper!

Good job Dubus!

 

[slates77]

Still on team Josh Manson, buy low!

 

[Legion34]

Still on team Josh Manson, buy low!

you think Anaheim will need to cut salary? The teams that lose the most here will have to give up money. Columbus. Isles. Florida. Arizona. I’m not sure how much money the ducks have

 

[slates77]

you think Anaheim will need to cut salary? The teams that lose the most here will have to give up money. Columbus. Isles. Florida. Arizona. I’m not sure how much money the ducks have

Well I'm pretty sure they need to rebuild so not sure they need a 28 year old defencemen.

 

[nuck]

you think Anaheim will need to cut salary? The teams that lose the most here will have to give up money. Columbus. Isles. Florida. Arizona. I’m not sure how much money the ducks have

Based on 18-19 Anaheim is one of several teams with very little cash to spare, plus they are bottom five in the standings. Given the age and depth of their lineup they look like a team that should possibly be blowing up and rebuilding.
We have seen clubs turn it around in 3-4 years if things go right but does that mean Manson and Fowler need to go to bring rebuild pieces or that they are still going to be helpful to a winner? If I am the Ducks I move both for younger assets and build around Lindholm but they need to get a decent return. The fact they would save $10M a year has to be attractive to ownership although fans would whine short term.

 

[Menzinger]

Mirtle recently suggested the Leafs may look to shed salary to give them more manuveribg space in free agency for D men. Maybe AJ goes for a pick or prospect

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Mirtle recently suggested the Leafs may look to shed salary to give them more manuveribg space in free agency for D men. Maybe AJ goes for a pick or prospect

I mean that has been "suggested" for a long time now. Not really anything new unless Mirtle is passing it off as a legitimate rumour.

 

[Kiwi]

Mirtle recently suggested the Leafs may look to shed salary to give them more manuveribg space in free agency for D men. Maybe AJ goes for a pick or prospect

I wonder about the market for him after this season with his contract