Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[bicboi64]

Staios is gonna give the farm for Boone Jenner isn’t he

If only Jarmo was still there. We could do a Chabot for Wersenki swap. Wersenki is injury prone, but when he plays at least he can produce.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This forum is going to get interesting from this point onwards until the season starts. We are seeing names like Jones, Karlsson, Jenner, etc. That’s not necessarily bad in some cases, but I hope Staois stays away from huge contracts for older players that will constrain the team for many years.

I’m hoping he’ll be more surgical & strategic and hopefully get something through free agency. We need another RD & goalie, and I don’t think we need to sell the farm to acquire those pieces (well, let’s hope so). We have an owner with deep pockets as well and there’s sufficient cap space to get those pieces.

Let’s see what Staois can do. He’s got his challenges in front of him for sure.

As for the HF Sens forum, the shopping list is very long if you add the pieces up and I can see people being frustrated when they only get a portion of what they want. For any of the new additions that are added to the team, the pressure will be heavy. I think one of the most under appreciated aspect will be what a good coach could do. If the team can manage to play strong team D, that will go a long way.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

If only Jarmo was still there. We could do a Chabot for Wersenki swap. Wersenki is injury prone, but when he plays at least he can produce.

They score at literally the exact same pace lmao

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Hypothetical scenario.

The Salt Lake City Roadkill win the draft lottery. Their new ownership wants to make a splash. They want to build a contender right off the bat.

Josh Norris is nerfed. He won't play in the 2024-25 regular season, and may not play again.

Brady has not asked for a trade, but in his exit interview it is made clear that he is unhappy and frustrated. He has a year until his NMC kicks in and the team doesn't want to risk having to trade him from a position of weakness if he asks for a trade right before or shortly after his NMC kicks in.


Brady
Korpisalo (Negative value)
BOS

for


1st overall
Weber (Negative value. Gets the Roadkill out of LTI, doesn't negatively affect the Senators since they will already be in LTI with Josh Norris.)


Roadkill take Korpisalo as additional value to Ottawa. They can buy him out, bury him, whatever. Ottawa takes Weber as a consolation to Roadkill because the team being in LTI with Norris means that adding Weber doesn't change anything this upcoming season. We're assuming Norris won't return for the 2024-2025 season.

Your dedication to making terrible trade scenarios is truly outstanding. I will give you credit for that.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Josh Norris is nerfed. He won't play in the 2024-25 regular season, and may not play again.

I know you used the word “hypothetical”, but I’ll post some thoughts anyhow.

Norris' surgeon has said he has successfully performed these surgeries before with success on players with the same injury. So, I’m not sure we can assume that he’ll be LTIRed or miss the year. This idea does seem to get repeated in here a fair bit.

I’m not a clairvoyant or a medical specialist of course, but presenting the info that has been provided by someone in the field seems appropriate.

 

[stempniaksen]

Attack the off-season the same way Detroit has recently and hope it works out in your favour (Perron, Compher) instead of blowing up in your face (Chiarot, Holl).

I'm not convinced management is going to blow this thing up and that their version of the core is probably bigger than fans version of the core.

OUT: Chychrun, Brannstrom, Hamonic, Kubalik, One of Korpisalo/Forsberg (probably AF)
IN: Veteran top-four RHD, Veteran middle/bottom-six forward, 1A/1B goalie, Kleven, Crookshank/Ostapchuk

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
Vet UFA* - Pinto - Giroux
Greig - Norris? - Joseph
Katchouk - Kastelic - Kelly

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Vet UFA**
Kleven - JBD
Guenette/PTO

UFA G***
Korpisalo

* Stephenson/Toffoli/Henrique/DeBrusk//Bertuzzi/Perron/Duclair/Martinook
** M.Roy/Demelo/Pesce/Tanev/Walker/Carrier/Hakanpaa
*** Stolarz/Samsonov/Reimer/Brossoit/Nedeljkovic/Rantta
****Crookshank/Ostapchuk get a shot somewhere in the top-nine if/when Norris can't go.

Wouldn't necessarily be my first choice, as I'd be slightly more aggressive, but it wouldn't shock me at all to see (what seems like) this ultra conservative group bring in their own coach with a couple more veterans and treat next season as a bit of an evaluation again.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Draft zeev.

Chabot for schenn.

Chychrun for Jeannot and 2nd.

Sign tanev.

Branny Kubalik out the door.

Someone jump in with a RD to play with kleven.

Sign Stolarz.

Schenn stutzle batherson
Jenanot Greig Joseph.

ZEEV - tanev.

 

[bicboi64]

If we go after Jenner, Send them Norris and Boston's 1st for Jenner and Laine.

 

[Snowwy]

Draft zeev.

Chabot for schenn.

Chychrun for Jeannot and 2nd.

Sign tanev.

Branny Kubalik out the door.

Someone jump in with a RD to play with kleven.

Sign Stolarz.

Schenn stutzle batherson
Jenanot Greig Joseph.

ZEEV - tanev.

Oh boy.. the game has passed you by I think.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Oh boy.. the game has passed you by I think.

We will still be fast. But with a tad more grit And zeev will be star

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

If we go after Jenner, Send them Norris and Boston's 1st for Jenner and Laine.

I don't think they would want the liability of the Norris contract.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he makes it back to being a star player, but if you were a rival GM, would you take that contract while only dumping 2 years of term?

The only type of team I could see taking Norris would be one starting a 5 year rebuild, where they could justify taking Norris for some sort of consolation because they will have so much cap flexibility that the value of 8M for the next 6 years is lower to them than it is to a team like Columbus who has less cap flexibility.

If I was Pittsburgh, I might do something like Norris for Karlsson if Norris is projected to return this upcoming season. A team in that position doesn't have to worry about long term bad cap because it's about winning now and then rebuilding when Crosby goes.

That obviously doesn't make sense for Ottawa, but it's just an example.

 

[aragorn]

The D, goaltending, and forward depth still aren’t good enough. This team likely misses again. We’d be better off replacing Chabot with someone at 5 and spending the extra on depth or goaltending.

I definitely want to add Kleven but have no interest in pairing him with those two. There aren’t any ideal options but maybe someone like Shattenkirk. Ideally he’d be paired with a right handed vet who can move the puck so he doesn’t have to take on that role for 82 games.

I have removed Chabot & Brannstrom, two guys who are weak defensively & replaced them with 6"4" Jones & 6'4" Kleven. Jones is a good RD who can play in the top 4 & Kleven stabalizes the bottom 2. JBD is getting better leading the team in blocked shots & Hamoni will be more an injury replacement & mentor in his last yr or bought out. JBD & Hamonic both have contracts for next yr. Adding two big bodies should at the least make them harder to play against & I could see Jones improving his numbers playing here rather than in Chicago.

It would be nice to move on from both goaltenders, but after the yr they had it won't be easy to move them. It's been mentioned that because Forsberg only has a yr left on his contract he would be easier to move & chances of moving Korpisalo are slim given he has 4 yrs & $16 mil left. It's also a question whether Sogaard is ready & maybe they should look at a cheap NHL vet backup. I really want Ullmark, but what do the Bruins want for him?

We have six very good players who will fill out the top six & the 4th line is likely also set for next yr. Could we improve the 4th line yes, but what do we do with the guys they have signed for next yr & whoever we get has to fit in the budget & the 3 or 4 we have now do? That leaves the 3rd line & I have Greig & Joseph on it who most seem to want to keep. I've added Ostapchuk because IMO he is NHL ready & that would be a good place to start his NHL career.

Seth Jones will never agree to that.


Not the farm but it will seem like an overpay

Why not? He's on a terrible team that is rebuilding & Ottawa with a few changes & players living up to their contracts next yr could be a playoff team as they should have been this yr & Jones could get to play with Sanderson or Chychrun both guys can put up pts that should help Jones. The talent is there, it just needs the right coach to structure it into a playoff team.

 

[GCK]

I have removed Chabot & Brannstrom, two guys who are weak defensively & replaced them with 6"4" Jones & 6'4" Kleven. Jones is a good RD who can play in the top 4 & Kleven stabalizes the bottom 2. JBD is getting better leading the team in blocked shots & Hamoni will be more an injury replacement & mentor in his last yr or bought out. JBD & Hamonic both have contracts for next yr. Adding two big bodies should at the least make them harder to play against & I could see Jones improving his numbers playing here rather than in Chicago.

It would be nice to move on from both goaltenders, but after the yr they had it won't be easy to move them. It's been mentioned that because Forsberg only has a yr left on his contract he would be easier to move & chances of moving Korpisalo are slim given he has 4 yrs & $16 mil left. It's also a question whether Sogaard is ready & maybe they should look at a cheap NHL vet backup. I really want Ullmark, but what do the Bruins want for him?

We have six very good players who will fill out the top six & the 4th line is likely also set for next yr. Could we improve the 4th line yes, but what do we do with the guys they have signed for next yr & whoever we get has to fit in the budget & the 3 or 4 we have now do? That leaves the 3rd line & I have Greig & Joseph on it who most seem to want to keep. I've added Ostapchuk because IMO he is NHL ready & that would be a good place to start his NHL career.

Why not? He's on a terrible team that is rebuilding & Ottawa with a few changes & players living up to their contracts next yr could be a playoff team as they should have been this yr & Jones could get to play with Sanderson or Chychrun both guys can put up pts that should help Jones. The talent is there, it just needs the right coach to structure it into a playoff team.

He’s on a team with Bedard in a great city. No way he takes a 1.1M yearly pay cut to come to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 7 years.

 

[ottawagm]

If we go after Jenner, Send them Norris and Boston's 1st for Jenner and Laine.

or our 7OA ++ for Jenner + Jiricek if we like him and they would like to move on after his comments this year.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

No team is taking Norris unless a contract equally as suspect is going the other way. Something like Norris for PLD.

A PLD buyout is difficult because of his term and signing bonuses. He also has a NMC that kicks in on July 1st. Even having to take Norris and risk that he is ineffective due to his shoulder, there are more avenues to get out of the Norris deal since he doesn't have signing bonuses, has less term, and could eventually end up retiring early (LTIR) if he continues to get hurt.

That would be a scenario where a team might jump at Norris because keeping PLD is much worse.

It's going to take Norris proving his shoulder isnt an issue anymore before he becomes a positive asset. Ironically, if he does that, there probably isn't a reason to trade him.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Norris is so damned tricky. If the surgery works and he gets his head back on straight and has confidence in the shoulder, he can be a good 1/2 C for several years. If things don't go all that well, or he can't get past the mental hurdle, then you're stuck with a massive contract anchor. Don't want to give away a potential core asset, but also don't want to have a potential long-term anchor on the roster.

No matter which route you choose, you're taking a big gamble on this kid.

 

[JD1]

Chychrun with the -31 is wild. Hamonic is closest D with -10 (in 48 games)

Over the entire rebuild, 2018-today, the other D with the worst +/`- were Lajoie in 18-19 on the worst team in the league at -25 (only 56 games), Ceci the same year at -22, and Mete in 2021-22 with -19 in only 37 games...)

There's a stat here called "expected +/-"

I'd never noticed this stat before

2023-24 Ottawa Senators Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest Ottawa Senators Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts and more on Hockey-Reference.com

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It paints a different picture of Chychrun's numbers.

I went to natural stat trick and x referenced their data. If you look at the full season, his xGF is 4.5 lower than his xGA so same ballpark. Certainly nowhere near -30 territory

 

[Micklebot]

There's a stat here called "expected +/-"

I'd never noticed this stat before

2023-24 Ottawa Senators Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest Ottawa Senators Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

It paints a different picture of Chychrun's numbers.

I went to natural stat trick and x referenced their data. If you look at the full season, his xGF is 4.5 lower than his xGA so same ballpark. Certainly nowhere near -30 territory

Idk how much of anyone on this teams +/- you can take at face value. For starters, we allowed a lot of EN goals which disproportionately affects the offensive minded guys like Chychrun. I was surprised to see we actually fared alright in terms of shorthanded goals against, but he was on for half of those too.

The other big factor is with as unreliable as our goaltending has been, I feel like there's a much higher degree of randomness in on ice GA,

Wrt comparing him to Ceci, I don't see that as a fair comp given Ceci was heavily used in a shut down role, so lots of context goes into any differences.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Norris is so damned tricky. If the surgery works and he gets his head back on straight and has confidence in the shoulder, he can be a good 1/2 C for several years. If things don't go all that well, or he can't get past the mental hurdle, then you're stuck with a massive contract anchor. Don't want to give away a potential core asset, but also don't want to have a potential long-term anchor on the roster.

No matter which route you choose, you're taking a big gamble on this kid.

The most proactive trade proposal for Norris would be future considerations.

If a team with a ton of cap flexibility and time to wait for Norris to get better like Salt Lake City offered to take the liability of the contract, would you do it?

 

[Ice-Tray]

The most proactive trade proposal for Norris would be future considerations.

If a team with a ton of cap flexibility and time to wait for Norris to get better like Salt Lake City offered to take the liability of the contract, would you do it?

We’re not trading Norris right now. That would be really dumb.

If he comes back fully healed he is either back to being a good player for us, or he has better value than he would right now.

If he can’t get healthy again, then he is LTIR.

Trading him right now would send a terrible message to his teammates in terms of how the organization deals with injured core players, and fans in terms of the GM having the ability to properly manage his players/assets.

I can see Norris moved to the wing, especially initially so that he can work on getting his game back up to speed with out the added responsibilities of a centre. He can play with Stu and G perhaps.

I’d rather not pay a team to take our 35 goal scoring centre without seeing if his shoulder is totally healed. You’d think we have been burned enough by bad trades already.

 

[Loach]

The most proactive trade proposal for Norris would be future considerations.

If a team with a ton of cap flexibility and time to wait for Norris to get better like Salt Lake City offered to take the liability of the contract, would you do it?

I got a wierd feeling this guy bounces back. Nothing to back this feeling up. Then we get to talk about Pinto or him on the wing. Lol. A good "problem" for once.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

We’re not trading Norris right now. That would be really dumb.

If he comes back fully healed he is either back to being a good player for us, or he has better value than he would right now.

If he can’t get healthy again, then he is LTIR.

Trading him right now would send a terrible message to his teammates in terms of how the organization deals with injured core players, and fans in terms of the GM having the ability to properly manage his players/assets.

I can see Norris moved to the wing, especially initially so that he can work on getting his game back up to speed with out the added responsibilities of a centre. He can play with Stu and G perhaps.

I’d rather not pay a team to take our 35 goal scoring centre without seeing if his shoulder is totally healed. You’d think we have been burned enough by bad trades already.

I don't disagree with most of your points and I am not advocating moving on from him.

With that said, unless they are sure that he will be ready for the start of the season, they will be in a purgatory where they cannot use his cap hit to improve the team because they will have to clear enough space to activate him from LTIR. Similar to anytime a player misses training camp or misses time hurt, he also might not be 100 percent effect right off the bat. There is also the liability that he could be as far away from his peak as he was this season, if not farther.

There will be a lot of pressure to put the best possible team on the ice this season. Giroux is a UFA. Brady's NMC is coming up. The fans have been extremely supportive of the team since Melnyk left (as evidenced by ticket sales), but that may have a shelf life if we miss the playoffs again.

More so to play devil's advocate, I think there would be more value than people let on to freeing up 8M that could be directly used this offseason to add to the team if Norris will not be ready to start the season, let alone start at training camp.

If Norris is cleared in time for training camp, that dynamic changes.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't disagree with most of your points and I am not advocating moving on from him.

With that said, unless they are sure that he will be ready for the start of the season, they will be in a purgatory where they cannot use his cap hit to improve the team because they will have to clear enough space to activate him from LTIR. Similar to anytime a player misses training camp or misses time hurt, he also might not be 100 percent effect right off the bat. There is also the liability that he could be as far away from his peak as he was this season, if not farther.

There will be a lot of pressure to put the best possible team on the ice this season. Giroux is a UFA. Brady's NMC is coming up. The fans have been extremely supportive of the team since Melnyk left (as evidenced by ticket sales), but that may have a shelf life if we miss the playoffs again.

More so to play devil's advocate, I think there would be more value than people let on to freeing up 8M that could be directly used this offseason to add to the team if Norris will not be ready to start the season, let alone start at training camp.

If Norris is cleared in time for training camp, that dynamic changes.

What do you think it would cost to move him, if it was even possible, my guess it’s not close to worth it.
Since there won’t be any buyouts.

 

[Alex1234]

They score at literally the exact same pace lmao

Werenski has 90 goals in 486 NHL games (0.185 goals per game)
Chabot has 62 goals in 432 NHL games (0.144 goals per game)

They don't score at literally the exact same pace LMAO

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Werenski has 90 goals in 486 NHL games (0.185 goals per game)
Chabot has 62 goals in 432 NHL games (0.144 goals per game)

They don't score at literally the exact same pace LMAO

Yes, Werenski scores about 15 goals per 82 whereas Chabot scores about 12.

"Produce" typically refers to points, though, and they are both 50pt per 82 game DMen. Nice to see you starting bringing facts into your arguments though.