Flyers Regular Season Postmortem Thread VI

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Continue.

The prior thread is closed (1,000 posts): http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2185809&page=41

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[Flyotes]

Yeah, the "fat" thing was a little overblown, but it was a discussion piece here.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[TCTC]

Look at Chicago. 90 picks in 10 years. That's how you build a team for long term success and that's why they're still one of the best teams in the league whereas teams like LA or Vancouver are bubble teams at best now.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Trust the prockess

 

[Tripod]

Any idea if we do indeed have that 10th pick from the Straka deal? I have never seen what the conditions were. Only a 7th rounder, but hey, our last 7th rounder made the WJC this year.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Zatkoff has cleared waivers

 

[LI Fly Guy]

Whatever hope Hexy has generated is losing steam with this clown coach. While I'm excited for the cap space and the prospect of a few of Sanheim,Morin, Haag, Myers, and Lindblom being on the team next year and the subtraction of a decent amount of dead weight, this coaches system plus his obsession with slapdick players make me believe it'll be much more of the same unless he's canned.

 

[Brayden Fattison]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but it's basically the Caps' Russians saying very flattering things about Provy. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pattisonave/Alex-Ovechkin-on-Flyers-Ivan-Provorovs-future-I-see-him-as-an-All-Star.html

 

[deadhead]

Just curious, what Flyer defenseman other than Streit is slower than Gudas?

Somehow, I don't think this team is struggling because VdV plays over Wiese or Luby - it's not hurting them offensively (nothing from nothing is still nothing), and VdV doesn't get enough ES minutes to have much of a defensive impact.

So how come this team is playing so badly? The coach didn't change the scheme, the GM didn't change the players from last year (unless you think (the guys gone from the playoff run) the absence of Laughton, White, and Gagner is the difference maker.

The big changes this season:
Provorov replaced Schultz in the lineup
Konecny replaced Gagner
Weise/Luby replaced White
Cousins replaced Laughton
Couts is healthy

The biggest difference this year is
1) bad goalies
2) Giroux and Ghost playing far worse than last year
3) Schenn playing much worse at ES, probably b/c he's not a center

Otherwise it's pretty much the same team.

 

[Curufinwe]

Couturier missed 16 games thru injury this season. He missed 18 last season.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but it's basically the Caps' Russians saying very flattering things about Provy. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pattisonave/Alex-Ovechkin-on-Flyers-Ivan-Provorovs-future-I-see-him-as-an-All-Star.html

It's bizarre to watch him making defensive plays you'd expect from a 10 year veteran then see him up close and he's practically a child. It doesn't compute.

 

[Rebels57]

Just curious, what Flyer defenseman other than Streit is slower than Gudas?

Somehow, I don't think this team is struggling because VdV plays over Wiese or Luby - it's not hurting them offensively (nothing from nothing is still nothing), and VdV doesn't get enough ES minutes to have much of a defensive impact.

So how come this team is playing so badly? The coach didn't change the scheme, the GM didn't change the players from last year (unless you think (the guys gone from the playoff run) the absence of Laughton, White, and Gagner is the difference maker.

The big changes this season:
Provorov replaced Schultz in the lineup
Konecny replaced Gagner
Weise/Luby replaced White
Cousins replaced Laughton
Couts is healthy

The biggest difference this year is
1) bad goalies
2) Giroux and Ghost playing far worse than last year
3) Schenn playing much worse at ES, probably b/c he's not a center

Otherwise it's pretty much the same team.

The team is not playing the same scheme they even played earlier this season, let alone last year.

Also, they just don't trust themselves because they have no faith in the system and that leads to tentative hockey instead of instinctual. They also don't support the puck well at all. More often than not, a forward enters the oppositions zone with little to no option other than to dump it around and hope for a retrieval.

 

[deadhead]

They lost trust in the system because it was an aggressive attack scheme that inevitably is going to put pressure on your own goalie, last year when the goalies played well down the stretch the rest of the team could attack with confidence, knowing that every mistake wouldn't set off a flashing light.

This year, I think they got shellshocked by bad goalie play, even during the winning streak they had to outscore the goalie in a number of games. And when the offense went cold (which happens to all teams) then they started pressing because they didn't have confidence that their goalies would keep it close if they were a goal behind.

The defensive shell is recent, and it's really about protecting goalies that you don't trust - earlier in the year the Flyers were not only outshooting but creating more scoring chances than the opposition - and losing games on soft goals.

When you have goalies that are this bad, you have to be a top offensive team and play solid defense - and we're just not that good.

 

[tymed]

This season's obviously toast. We absolutely need to get on and move Jake over to the left wing so his position there can be realized and we can just move forward with that hole filled.

Simple hockey fundamentals suggest that Voracek has the skillset to excel as a forehand winger and possibly, also imo be better at it than playing on his offhand. Last season, he was asked to move to the left wing because that's where the team needs him to be, and he did with very much success. Someone would have to confirm or disconfirm this for me but he started playing the left side last Dec 15 and went on to record 32 pts in 30gp (22es, 10ppp) before getting injured and ending what was for sure one of his most fruitful 5v5 streaks. Im only assuming that he played LW all the way until he was injured because that only makes sense, however, the last articled citation I can find was at 23pts in 17gp.

The fundamentals and the track record are there. While 30 games isn't the largest sample to take from, it's more than enough to state as an extremely strong indication that Voracek could sustain a similar if not better 5v5 pace on his forehand than he can on his backhand. On the powerplay, I believe that already he's in his optimal spot on the offboard only that this serves as a detriment when the powerplay is rooted entirely from the opposite side of him and he's put into the most prime shooting spot, which is his biggest weakness-an extremely glaring one at that. As long as Giroux's on this team, while it may not serve him personally best to anchor the 2nd unit, it can easily be argued that it's best for the team as a whole-People are finally catching onto this. If Jake could create a 2nd unit, our powerplay as a whole goes from one of the best to the best.

On top of it just making simple sense considering the individual's skillset and also speaking for itself on the scoresheet, filling the hole and seemingly age-old need we have for top caliber LW could be achieved with what we have already on our roster as early as now and be in place to start the next season. This move is completely optimal and it takes from our club's ONLY position of real strength, the right side, to fill it longest running forward position of need. Doing this leaves us still with Simmonds on the right, Schenn on the right which is the only spot he's proven effective in, Konecny who made the move to the left wing only stick in the NHL...etc etc.

Without even going into the other stabilizing effects this shift causes cascading down the entire lineup, I'm not sure how this suggestion can go continuously without interest. It's the only logical solution to the forward lineup we have that doesn't involve waiting in imbalance for decent LW talent to come up the pipeline, or futilely coming up with trades that will never happen even if they're balanced.

 

[Brayden Fattison]

It's bizarre to watch him making defensive plays you'd expect from a 10 year veteran then see him up close and he's practically a child. It doesn't compute.

Yep, especially when you contrast his play with that of the stiffs he has to carry defensively, who are 10+ year veterans who play like it's their first year out of juniors.

It feels weird to have had two consecutive years of highly regarded rookie d-men, and it's going to feel even weirder when Myers makes it 4 in '18-'19.

 

[Striiker]

I want to see

Provorov-Sanheim
Morin-Ghost

So damn bad.

 

[Tripod]

OMG, Tim & Sid asking if Gudas is the cheapest player in the league and shows the knee on knee on Niskanen, then the shot at Ovi.

Now showing a bunch of history cheap shots.

 

[Tripod]

lol...Gudas is going to get the "Ulf Samuelsson"


"Retribution coming his way at some point."

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

There's very few skilled fighters in the NHL at this point. Gudas while not a great fighter is very strong which can keep himself from getting tuned up by the vast majority of players in the league today.

Honestly the amount of willing fighters has dropped dramatically as well. So there's really not many that will fight him & there's not many that can actually inflict damage too him.

 

[Tripod]

Just curious, what Flyer defenseman other than Streit is slower than Gudas?

Somehow, I don't think this team is struggling because VdV plays over Wiese or Luby - it's not hurting them offensively (nothing from nothing is still nothing), and VdV doesn't get enough ES minutes to have much of a defensive impact.

So how come this team is playing so badly? The coach didn't change the scheme, the GM didn't change the players from last year (unless you think (the guys gone from the playoff run) the absence of Laughton, White, and Gagner is the difference maker.

The big changes this season:
Provorov replaced Schultz in the lineup
Konecny replaced Gagner
Weise/Luby replaced White
Cousins replaced Laughton
Couts is healthy

The biggest difference this year is
1) bad goalies
2) Giroux and Ghost playing far worse than last year
3) Schenn playing much worse at ES, probably b/c he's not a center

Otherwise it's pretty much the same team.

They lost trust in the system because it was an aggressive attack scheme that inevitably is going to put pressure on your own goalie, last year when the goalies played well down the stretch the rest of the team could attack with confidence, knowing that every mistake wouldn't set off a flashing light.

This year, I think they got shellshocked by bad goalie play, even during the winning streak they had to outscore the goalie in a number of games. And when the offense went cold (which happens to all teams) then they started pressing because they didn't have confidence that their goalies would keep it close if they were a goal behind.

The defensive shell is recent, and it's really about protecting goalies that you don't trust - earlier in the year the Flyers were not only outshooting but creating more scoring chances than the opposition - and losing games on soft goals.

When you have goalies that are this bad, you have to be a top offensive team and play solid defense - and we're just not that good.

Nice to see Deadhead contradict himself with 90 minutes of each post.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yep, especially when you contrast his play with that of the stiffs he has to carry defensively, who are 10+ year veterans who play like it's their first year out of juniors.

It feels weird to have had two consecutive years of highly regarded rookie d-men, and it's going to feel even weirder when Myers makes it 4 in '18-'19.

Yeah I'm choosing to be in denial about Myers. I choose to believe he actually sucks. That way if he actually sucks its not a loss for me, and if he lives up to what people here claim I'll be even more impressed. I can't lose.

 

[whitstifier]

Yeah I'm choosing to be in denial about Myers. I choose to believe he actually sucks. That way if he actually sucks its not a loss for me, and if he lives up to what people here claim I'll be even more impressed. I can't lose.

Don't arrive at any conclusions until he's played at least 3 NHL seasons.

 

[Striiker]

Nice to see Deadhead contradict himself with 90 minutes of each post.

Maybe this is his new strategy so he isn't wrong every post. If he says every possible reality then he'll be right 50% of the time.

 

[deadhead]

Can't find adjusted save data since war on ice went off the air.
So I figure next best is aggregate E +/- versus aggregate +/-.
+/- E +/-
2016/17 -209 -4.2
2015/16 -16 -50.1
2014/15 -52 4.3
[to normalize to actual goals, divide by 5, so this year we have a -42 ES differential instead of an expected 1 goal]

What jumps out is that based on expected +/-, the Flyers are actually playing better this year, but cumulative +/- is awful. Since E +/- is based on probability of scoring from different areas of the ice, it's a crude proxy for scoring chances.

In other words, at even strength Flyers are generating as many expected goals as they're allowing, but actual goals are skewed strongly to the opposition. This is probably a combination of below average shooting (not taking advantage of opportunities) and bad goaltending. My guess is it's primarily goaltending, with some impact from bad shooting.