Flyers "Flight Plan": New Behind the Scenes Series

[Jtown]

They were talking about knowing their limitations as of right now, which falls under their IQ which Nurse was mostly criticized for by other scouts as well leading up to the draft.

You have remember Morin wasn't used in an offensive role last year in Rimouski. That should change this upcoming year as he will likely be a top pairing defensemen for them.

im looking at these scouts talk about players with no real sense of what they are talking about. They are using very general descriptions. No objectivity and no real reasoning.

So since andres lilja knows he is a 3rd pairing defensive defeseman and dennis wideman knows he is a pp specialist they now have high hockey iq's?

Truth is these players and and these scouts dont know what these players are. The best you can do is look objectively at measurables any more analysis than than that is based on bias.

 

[BernieParent]

For me, having Morin above Nurse and Ristolainen is pretty shocking. I was plenty upset that they settled for Morin given who was already off the board. I'd still be wearing my flat-screen as a loafer if they passed on either or both of the above.

 

[Larry44]

"I think Morin has more meanness. He will whack you with his ****ing stick and give you that stuff".
-Dennis Patterson

It may be a sterotype, but there is truth in it. For every Pronger, who has natural meanness, there are countless guys who are big and strong but lack that edge. It's funny how much grief Coburn gets on here, but we all really like his game when he gets ticked and starts hammering guys. It just doesn't come naturally to him unless provoked, usually by Penguin.

Why was Hatcher so much better than the similarly skilled Rathje? Whack. That's why. Chara has always been a great player, but he went to another level when he started hammering more guys, being meaner.

I really liked seeing the internal process of how these guys, who have seen all the players so much, came to a consensus that Morin had the most upside of the players in the range, along with some innate meanness, so he was their guy.

 

[Random Forest]

im looking at these scouts talk about players with no real sense of what they are talking about. They are using very general descriptions. No objectivity and no real reasoning.

So since andres lilja knows he is a 3rd pairing defensive defeseman and dennis wideman knows he is a pp specialist they now have high hockey iq's?

Truth is these players and and these scouts dont know what these players are. The best you can do is look objectively at measurables any more analysis than than that is based on bias.

You realize this is the very last meeting until the draft, right? They've already beaten the specifics to death. Of course this meeting is going to be in general terms.

Did you not hear them when they said that they've had the same discussions over and over again? They've already talked about each players strengths and flaws.

And you're misinterpreting what he meant by saying Morin "knows his game better". He's saying that Morin understands his own skill set and plays accordingly. For example, Braydon Coburn is an example of a player who doesn't "know his game". He doesn't play to his strengths, and that has stopped him from ever reaching his true potential. That's what they're getting at here. They're betting on Nurse never being able to put it all together because he is not fully aware of his skill set when he's on the ice. That's not exactly outlandish.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

So since andres lilja knows he is a 3rd pairing defensive defeseman and dennis wideman knows he is a pp specialist they now have high hockey iq's?

Truth is these players and and these scouts dont know what these players are. The best you can do is look objectively at measurables any more analysis than than that is based on bias.

Uhm not fully but it's a part of it. If he doesn't know his limitations than that means he's doing too much & taking himself out of the play at times.

Scouting isn't an exact science but these guys are paid for their knowledge on what these players may turn out to be in the future. They still know more of what to look for in a player in determining that than me & you do.

 

[Larry44]

For me, having Morin above Nurse and Ristolainen is pretty shocking. I was plenty upset that they settled for Morin given who was already off the board. I'd still be wearing my flat-screen as a loafer if they passed on either or both of the above.

Why Bernie? And this applies to everyone on here questioning this, JTown too.

One question: How many times did you see Nurse, Ristolainen and Morin play a game live - in the rink? I'll go out on a limb and say 'zero.' Me too.

As much as the draft is still a crapshoot, projecting how a guy at 17 or 18 will be when he's 25, these guys see them play so much, and have so much experience that all you can do is follow Morin around, watch him play 15 times live, talk to his coaches, meet his family, interview him at the combine and get a sense of the man inside the boy.

None of us has 1/100th of the information or insight into all these players that the scouts do. I'm sure they have ALL their games on video, probably broken down by shift. They know their skills, how they play in different situations, and most importantly from seeing them play live - how they play away from the puck.

You can never really tell how a good a guy is until you see him play live. Many times. On the road and at home. The scouts do. All we can do as fans is trust they go with their gut instincts and pick the right guys.

 

[Random Forest]

Why Bernie? And this applies to everyone on here questioning this, JTown too.

One question: How many times did you see Nurse, Ristolainen and Morin play a game live - in the rink? I'll go out on a limb and say 'zero.' Me too.

As much as the draft is still a crapshoot, projecting how a guy at 17 or 18 will be when he's 25, these guys see them play so much, and have so much experience that all you can do is follow Morin around, watch him play 15 times live, talk to his coaches, meet his family, interview him at the combine and get a sense of the man inside the boy.

None of us has 1/100th of the information or insight into all these players that the scouts do. I'm sure they have ALL their games on video, probably broken down by shift. They know their skills, how they play in different situations, and most importantly from seeing them play live - how they play away from the puck.

You can never really tell how a good a guy is until you see him play live. Many times. On the road and at home. The scouts do. All we can do as fans is trust they go with their gut instincts and pick the right guys.

Exactly. It's also a major factor that Morin just turned 18. Ristolainen and Jones have been playing the entire season at 18 years old. They have about nine months of development on Morin.

It's such a crapshoot, and there are so many variables. People around here get way too caught up in what Bob McKenzie and Central Scouting have to say. But it's extremely subjective, and there is WAY more variance in the rankings from team to team than people would like to believe.

 

[Jtown]

im actually so convinced that the draft is a crapshoot that i could pick anyone from the board to be in charge of it and im sure over years they would have the same success in drafting.

The truth is this, all sports drafts are about perceived value. IT doesnt matter if you think morin is the best player at 11 and no one else does. 1 teams opinion on value does not matter. What matters is the general consensus or perceived value of said player. Why? because then you know where you stand. If you look at mock drafts or at player rankings the biggest change in percevied value for players was morin. the flyers valued him more than any other team and it showed. The general consensus would have said otherwise.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

im actually so convinced that the draft is a crapshoot that i could pick anyone from the board to be in charge of it and im sure over years they would have the same success in drafting.

The truth is this, all sports drafts are about perceived value. IT doesnt matter if you think morin is the best player at 11 and no one else does. 1 teams opinion on value does not matter. What matters is the general consensus or perceived value of said player. Why? because then you know where you stand. If you look at mock drafts or at player rankings the biggest change in percevied value for players was morin. the flyers valued him more than any other team and it showed. The general consensus would have said otherwise.

Montreal tried trading up to select Morin twice. First with Vancouver at #9 & then with us at #11.

 

[Jtown]

Nope, Montreal tried trading up to select Morin twice. First with Vancouver at #9 & then with us at #11.

Yes, the flyers valued him more if not they would have traded that pick to montreal.

 

[Damaged Goods]

Here's a list of everything we know with up to 95% certainty, I'd say:

1. MacKinnon
2. Jones
3. Drouin
4. Lindholm
5. Barkov
6. Morin
7. Mueller
8. Zadorov
9. Nurse
10. Ristolainen
11. Monahan
12. Morrissey
13. Gauthier
14. Horvat
15. Lazar
16.
17.
18.
19. Domi
20. Nichushkin
21. Rychel
22. De La Rose
23. McCaron
24. Hartman
25. Hagg


Mantha may be #16.

The other logical candidates/missing names are Wennberg, Pulock, Shinkaruk and Poirier. I would have been happy if they picked Mantha.

 

[The Couturier Effect]

Uhm not fully but it's a part of it. If he doesn't know his limitations than that means he's doing too much & taking himself out of the play at times.

Scouting isn't an exact science but these guys are paid for their knowledge on what these players may turn out to be in the future. They still know more of what to look for in a player in determining that than me & you do.

Exactly. Like Luke Schenn trying to skate the puck out of the zone like Bobby Orr. That's not gonna end well.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Yes, the flyers valued him more if not they would have traded that pick to montreal.

The Canadiens weren't picking until #25. They could have not wanted to take a risk of trading back that far & ending up with a guy they don't like.

The Flyers said they had three players in mind before the pick & ultimately decided with Morin then. Morin wasn't clear cut even up until the pick.

 

[Jtown]

The Canadiens weren't picking until #25. They could have not wanted to take a risk of trading back that far & ending up with a guy they don't like.

The Flyers said they had three players in mind before the pick & ultimately decided with Morin then. Morin wasn't clear cut even up until the pick.

that is true. but like i said If you value a penny as the most valuable thing and no one else values it as much as you do , that penny has no value. But if you value a penny and so do 29 other teams in a village of 30 then that penny has value.

the morin pick was low on perceived value.

 

[Larry44]

im actually so convinced that the draft is a crapshoot that i could pick anyone from the board to be in charge of it and im sure over years they would have the same success in drafting.

The truth is this, all sports drafts are about perceived value. IT doesnt matter if you think morin is the best player at 11 and no one else does. 1 teams opinion on value does not matter. What matters is the general consensus or perceived value of said player. Why? because then you know where you stand. If you look at mock drafts or at player rankings the biggest change in percevied value for players was morin. the flyers valued him more than any other team and it showed. The general consensus would have said otherwise.

Well, I think you could not be more misguided in having this view. The scouts are professionals who see these kids many, many times and have access to them and all kinds of information on them.

It is certainly not a science, but having experienced hockey men with proven track records in finding good players is the key. Yes, it's perception, but it's not perception in a vacuum. As I said in my previous post, you can't really know how well a Dman, for example, can control a game until you see them live.

I'm old. I always loved Mark Howe. Then I watched him live for the first time, from high up in the end seats and gained a whole new level of appreciation of how great he really was. He controlled everything that happened on his half of the ice. Completely.

Same with forwards - you can't watch them away from the puck unless you are there. You can see who can skate and how they play from watching TV clips, but you can't really know, and to think you can just belies a lack of understanding of how much they put into it.

It might be that we can read mock drafts and try to rate players, but there is a reason that media sites like TSN have as good lists: they talk to the scouts from all the teams.

There might be a general consensus, but the reality hits as Pryor said, 'we have to get this right on Sunday.' When the GM gets up to make the pick, what anyone else thinks is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is what your scouts have seen and felt and you pick who they think is going to be the best player 5-8 years from now.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Why even blur the list if they're going to mention every player's name from the list.

Very awesome to watch! The war room is what I love.

 

[Jtown]

Well, I think you could not be more misguided in having this view. The scouts are professionals who see these kids many, many times and have access to them and all kinds of information on them.

It is certainly not a science, but having experienced hockey men with proven track records in finding good players is the key. Yes, it's perception, but it's not perception in a vacuum. As I said in my previous post, you can't really know how well a Dman, for example, can control a game until you see them live.

I'm old. I always loved Mark Howe. Then I watched him live for the first time, from high up in the end seats and gained a whole new level of appreciation of how great he really was. He controlled everything that happened on his half of the ice. Completely.

Same with forwards - you can't watch them away from the puck unless you are there. You can see who can skate and how they play from watching TV clips, but you can't really know, and to think you can just belies a lack of understanding of how much they put into it.

It might be that we can read mock drafts and try to rate players, but there is a reason that media sites like TSN have as good lists: they talk to the scouts from all the teams.

There might be a general consensus, but the reality hits as Pryor said, 'we have to get this right on Sunday.' When the GM gets up to make the pick, what anyone else thinks is irrelevant, the only thing that matters is what your scouts have seen and felt and you pick who they think is going to be the best player 5-8 years from now.

which is one of the reasons why i trust those type of sites.

Look ill go into more depth about this in a few minutes

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Why even blur the list if they're going to mention every player's name from the list.

Very awesome to watch! The war room is what I love.

SanFilippo said they blurred it out so that if the Flyers look to make future moves for the players the other teams won't know how much they value them.

They mentioned like 15 names out of 200 or so.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

which is one of the reasons why i trust those type of sites.

They take a consensus of every scout they poll's list. If you took one of the scouts individual list it would likely look nothing like the consensus list after the first few picks.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

SanFilippo said they blurred it out so that if the Flyers look to make future moves for the players the other teams won't know how much they value them.

They mentioned like 15 names out of 200 or so.

Well thank you. Obviously they didn't say all 200. I was exaggerating.

And the whole premise is silly. If we can figure out their draft board, NHL teams certainly can.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Good first episode.

Strange to see Pronger sit back and let everyone else throw their opinions around.

 

[BillDineen]

Funny thing is, I was upset at their draft pick falling as they won at the end of the year and they ended up with the guy they would have taken at 6th anyway.

 

[BillDineen]

Also, the "fading under pressure" comment was interesting. It may have just been the mess of the board, but it followed Monahan being pushed below a lot of D and could indicate Homer stressing Snider's comment they never draft a number one D. Ie. take a D man unless there is a forward who you are sure is going to hit and has a high ceiling.

 

[FlyRoutine]

For me, having Morin above Nurse and Ristolainen is pretty shocking. I was plenty upset that they settled for Morin given who was already off the board. I'd still be wearing my flat-screen as a loafer if they passed on either or both of the above.

No offence, but why? Did you see anything but the Youtube videos and scouting reports of Morin, to think that Nurse and Ristolainen are that much the better choice than Morin?

 

[Psuhockey]

For me, having Morin above Nurse and Ristolainen is pretty shocking. I was plenty upset that they settled for Morin given who was already off the board. I'd still be wearing my flat-screen as a loafer if they passed on either or both of the above.

Why is it because the others were ranked higher by all the services or personal viewings? Just a quick word on the services: these are scouts who more than likely are (never made it) or were not good enough (fired for one reason or anther) to make it to the NHL. If they were good enough, they would be make more money in the big leagues than working for CS or ISS or whatever in all likelihood. The other point is that there is zero pressure for these ranking services. If a pro team is wrong, there will be layoffs as poor scouting leads to waste of assets and money and can cripple a franchise. Does anybody really notice if central scouting gets something wrong and does anybody care enough to have guys fired? The pro teams scouts probably look into more detail into things like personality, work ethic, sign ability, on and off ice demeanor than the services because their jobs literally depend on it.