Flint Firebirds 2018-19 Season Thread (Part 3)

[Packman]

Keppen and Wismer are definitely the most noticeable for turning the corner since Christmas. With that being said, the team as a whole are coming together and are obviously buying into Wellwood’s systems which is great to see. It will be great to get Roberts and Gretz back in the line-up next year.

 

[MJ5]

Keppen on a 10 game point streak including 7 goals. Jack Wismer has 8 goals and 15 points in his last 14 games. That line with Morgan has been really impressive. It's been great to see the light come on for Jack and to see Keppen step up even more. Cody Morgan looks to be the best trade Branch has made in 2 years. Ty has 4g and 17 points in his last 8. He's -4 in that span, so some things still need some work though. I don't think I've been disappointed with a performance or the effort level since that Sunday Saginaw game a few weeks back. Next few are not easy opponents hopefully the boys keep showing up and giving 100%.

I think the addition of Morgan gave them 2 legit lines. And you are correct Morgan is easily the best trade Branch has made.

Keppen could produce by himself a bit, but now with Wismer clicking and the addition of Morgan they have 2 legit lines.

 

[Hockey61fan]

Keppen and Wismer are definitely the most noticeable for turning the corner since Christmas. With that being said, the team as a whole are coming together and are obviously buying into Wellwood’s systems which is great to see. It will be great to get Roberts and Gretz back in the line-up next year.

Honestly I am still on the fence about Wellwood. Every game I have been to the forwards are being worked by Findlay as well as the PP. The improvement with the forwards since Christmas, in my opinion has been a result of Findlay and holding them accountable. Lines are clicking, players are scoring 5 on 5 and the PP has improved.

 

[MJ5]

Owen Sound's TV production sucks.

 

[Firebrd828]

Owen Sound's TV production sucks.

If you are using OHL Live, I've found that I get much better resolution if I watch with a minute or two of delay rather than watching "live".

 

[Savard18]

Wellwood's a bit slow figuring out that pulling the goalie with 2-3 minutes left just isn't going to work with this group. I wish he'd quit banging his head on the wall with that one. I've grown weary of Dellandrea's recent penchant for lackadaisical turnovers too. Still, good to see Morgan net another and even with a diluted Attack squad, not a bad performance considering no Kolyachonok and Bangs.

 

[Savard18]

So, there's been some....mention of the Firebirds in a couple other threads recently. One that lead me to look into some numbers. Just to make it easier with a uniform starting point and still have enough games to give it a little context I went with games since the end of the Christmas break. I added a note for games that ended in OT-SO but didn't bother to note the results for each of those individual games. Which admittedly leaves it a little flawed but it was too much work. I will note that all of those games though, the team either needed extra time to pick up the W or still picked up a point while losing the game. I didn't do the numbers for the big dog teams for obvious reasons.

Hamilton 15gp 18pts 6 OT-SO
Kitchener 13gp 16pts 2 OT-SO
Mississauga 15gp 15pts 5 OT-SO
Sudbury 14gp 13pts 0 OT-SO
Erie 14gp 13pts 4 OT-SO
Barrie 13gp 11pts 1 OT-SO
Flint 14gp 11pts 1 OT-SO
Sarnia 14gp 11pts 4 OT-SO
Peterborough 14gp 10pts 3 OT-SO
Windsor 15gp 10pts 1 OT-SO
Owen Sound. 14gp 8pts 2 OT-SO
Kingston 15gp 4pts 0 OT-SO

 

[Savard18]

So, I've been meaning to get around to posting what some of the top teams did this year to load up for a run. Just to give an example of how much talent teams add and what is spent to acquire that talent. I just did Niagara, Ottawa, Guelph and Saginaw. It doesn't include all deals though. For example, Guelph traded away guys like Mason Primeau, Tag Bertuzzi and Ryan Merkley for (mostly) picks and then used those picks to acquire players. To give it an easier to comprehend and more streamlined view, I didn't include deals like that. I didn't include London or the Soo who didn't make a lot of deadline moves, or Oshawa who were all over the place with their deals and while they kind of added for this year, they also made moves that set them up for the future too. Keep in mind, all of those teams were already really good rosters easily in the top half of the league. When I copied and pasted those standings up above, it deleted the spacing I had, so I added periods in an attempt to maintain a more readable look if the spacing was deleted again. I hand wrote this stuff out first and then just typed out Guelph. If this works, I'll type out Niagara, Ottawa and Saginaw and post them soon. Asteriks are for conditional picks. Sooo, if you think Flint's draft pick cupboard is loaded or they can make a run with just adding a piece or two, just look at what Guelph did this year to get ready.

 

[Savard18]

C Barrett Kirwan 2000........................C Dominic Commisso 1998
D Mark Woolley 2001.......................RW Mackenzie Entwistle 1999
RW Zach Poirier 1998...........................D Markus Phillips 1999
2nd 2019*........……................................D Fedor Gordeev 1999
2nd 2020...............................................D Sean Durzi 1998
2nd 2020.............................................LW Zachary Roberts 1999
2nd 2020...............................................C Nick Suzuki 1999
2nd 2021
2nd 2022
2nd 2022
2nd 2023
2nd 2024
2nd 2024
3rd 2020
3rd 2021
3rd 2021
3rd 2021
3rd 2022*
3rd 2022*
3rd 2023
3rd 2024
4th 2019
4th 2023*
5th 2021
5th 2022*

 

[Firebrd828]

C Barrett Kirwan 2000........................C Dominic Commisso 1998
D Mark Woolley 2001.......................RW Mackenzie Entwistle 1999
RW Zach Poirier 1998...........................D Markus Phillips 1999
2nd 2019*........……................................D Fedor Gordeev 1999
2nd 2020...............................................D Sean Durzi 1998
2nd 2020.............................................LW Zachary Roberts 1999
2nd 2020...............................................C Nick Suzuki 1999
2nd 2021
2nd 2022
2nd 2022
2nd 2023
2nd 2024
2nd 2024
3rd 2020
3rd 2021
3rd 2021
3rd 2021
3rd 2022*
3rd 2022*
3rd 2023
3rd 2024
4th 2019
4th 2023*
5th 2021
5th 2022*

I'm looking at this and saying, "WOW!" when it's spelled out just exactly how much gets paid out to make a run. I'm also tempering that with the knowledge that George Burnett has no problem sending draft picks in every which direction by the bushelful.

 

[Savard18]

NIAGARA
RW Ian Martin 2001...............................D Jacob Paquette 1999
D Billy Canstantinou 2001....................RW Jason Robertson 1999
D Lleyton Moore 2002...........................C Jack Studnicka 1999
2nd 2019.................................................D Matt Brassard 1998
2nd 2020.................................................G Jake McGrath 1999
2nd 2021
2nd 2021
2nd 2022
2nd 2022
2nd 2023
3rd 2020
3rd 2022
3rd 2022
3rd 2023
3rd 2024
3rd 2024
4th 2022
5th 2021
5th 2023*
7th 2019
11th 2021
13th 2020

 

[Savard18]

The thing that hurts is moving kids like Merkley, Bertuzzi, and Moore, Constantinou who I think are two future stud D. Then hoping your run is successful and that there are enough pieces returned the following year so you can sell them all off to recoup your draft picks.

 

[Savard18]

OTTAWA
C Egor Afanasyev 2001 (USHL)...............................G Michael DiPietro 1999
C Austen Swankler 2001 (USHL)............................LW Kyle Maksimovich 98
C Shaw Boomhower 1998 (ECHL)..........................LW Lucas Chiodo 1998
2nd 2019..........................................................................2nd 2024
2nd 2019.........................................................................4th 2020
2nd 2020
2nd 2021
2nd 2021*
2nd 2022
2nd 2023
2nd 2024
2nd 2024
3rd 2021
3rd 2021*
3rd 2022*
13th 2019

 

[dirty12]

The thing that hurts is moving kids like Merkley, Bertuzzi, and Moore, Constantinou who I think are two future stud D. Then hoping your run is successful and that there are enough pieces returned the following year so you can sell them all off to recoup your draft picks.

Many teams of late are showing that they can replenish the draft board and be on the rise two rebuilding seasons after going ‘all-in’.

After loading up, Guelph has 11-19 yr olds and Niagara 12. Flint has built up some depth in mostly high picked 8-2000 born and 8-2001. After a fairly competitive 2019-20, Flint can fund an ‘all-in’ year using excess OA and extra picks.?

 

[Savard18]

Many teams of late are showing that they can replenish the draft board and be on the rise two rebuilding seasons after going ‘all-in’.

After loading up, Guelph has 11-19 yr olds and Niagara 12. Flint has built up some depth in mostly high picked 8-2000 born and 8-2001. After a fairly competitive 2019-20, Flint can fund an ‘all-in’ year using excess OA and extra picks.?

Yeah, it can be done and I think they'll be ok if they play their cards right. I would like more picks in the cupboard leading up to their "all in" year though because I think they stand a risk of putting themselves in the situation Erie, Kingston or Windsor to an extent is in now. Noting that Windsor had sanctions and Erie ripped it up for 4 straight years leading up to their rebuilds. You also have to hope your top 19yo's are returned from the NHL and your OA's don't end up in the AHL or ECHL, which is becoming more of a risk recently. It looks as though they'll be cutting it close. I wanted to point out what teams spend and acquire for a run. For a few reasons, one of which was to answer posters who wanted Flint to trade picks to acquire players this year. Which is fine if the players are 16-17 or maaaaaaybe even 18. Spending picks to acquire players that would turn a 20th place team into a 16th-17th-18th place team though just made no sense to me and would seriously limit their ability to load up for a run. I wanted to address that with some actual numbers.

 

[Savard18]

SAGINAW
RW Ryan Stepien 2001..........................D Reagan O'Grady 1998
D Duncan Penman 2001.......................D Justin Murray 1998
C Aiden Prueter 2001............................C Ryan McLeod 1999
2nd 2020...............................................RW Owen Tippett 1999
2nd 2021
2nd 2024
2nd 2024
3rd 2019
3rd 2019
3rd 2020
3rd 2020
3rd 2023
4th 2019
5th 2020
6th 2021
7th 2019
7th 2020

 

[Savard18]

I don't think Saginaw did enough to get past the Conference Finals and I think they stand a good chance of running into London-Sault-Guelph in Round 2 and once again not getting past the second round. I think they just spent a lot of picks and 3 17yo's drafted in rounds 2 and 3 to play a high risk game.

 

[dirty12]

I don't think Saginaw did enough to get past the Conference Finals and I think they stand a good chance of running into London-Sault-Guelph in Round 2 and once again not getting past the second round. I think they just spent a lot of picks and 3 17yo's drafted in rounds 2 and 3 to play a high risk game.

Yeah, Saginaw is in tough. But, they are comfortably among the top 4 in the west after going 12-14 games >0.500 since the coaching change. It’s worth the risk imo, when you consider how long they have been a non-contender and how quickly teams have been able to re-load recently. Many thought Kingston would be down and out for several years. In one season, they have added at least 8 2000-01 players now having ‘01 1st, 3-2nds, & 3-3rds; and replaced a lot of picks. Kingston will be pretty good 2020-21.

 

[Savard18]

Yeah, Saginaw is in tough. But, they are comfortably among the top 4 in the west after going 12-14 games >0.500 since the coaching change. It’s worth the risk imo, when you consider how long they have been a non-contender and how quickly teams have been able to re-load recently. Many thought Kingston would be down and out for several years. In one season, they have added at least 8 2000-01 players now having ‘01 1st, 3-2nds, & 3-3rds; and replaced a lot of picks. Kingston will be pretty good 2020-21.

When I look at Saginaw, I think they could have stood pat, been the 4th seed and made it to the second round. Or I think they could have added a cheap OA to help mentor the youth and spent some picks to add a 17yo or two if they could find available ones. If they only make it to round 2 (the farthest they've made it in what? 20 years?) get eliminated and then lose Michnac, Murray, O'Grady, Tippett, McLeod and Wilde next year after moving 4 2nd's, 5 3rds + and 3 of their top 4 01's? Ouch. They do have enough picks still to reset and move forward quickly but if I was the Saginaw GM and was going to go in this year, there would be a Jason Robertson/Nick Suzuki/Kevin Hancock type and a better upgrade on D than O'Grady on the roster.

 

[dirty12]

When I look at Saginaw, I think they could have stood pat, been the 4th seed and made it to the second round. Or I think they could have added a cheap OA to help mentor the youth and spent some picks to add a 17yo or two if they could find available ones. If they only make it to round 2 (the farthest they've made it in what? 20 years?) get eliminated and then lose Michnac, Murray, O'Grady, Tippett, McLeod and Wilde next year after moving 4 2nd's, 5 3rds + and 3 of their top 4 01's? Ouch. They do have enough picks still to reset and move forward quickly but if I was the Saginaw GM and was going to go in this year, there would be a Jason Robertson/Nick Suzuki/Kevin Hancock type and a better upgrade on D than O'Grady on the roster.

We definitely see Saginaw’s team/moves differently. I think Saginaw saw the possibility of losing Wilde and took advantage of a buyers market getting Tippett & McLeod at a cost much lower than the recent norm...very comparable add to Robertson & Studnicka, imo. Hancock and Suzuki are great players too; but, not necessarily better for Saginaw or Niagara than the players they acquired.

 

[Savard18]

We definitely see Saginaw’s team/moves differently. I think Saginaw saw the possibility of losing Wilde and took advantage of a buyers market getting Tippett & McLeod at a cost much lower than the recent norm...very comparable add to Robertson & Studnicka, imo. Hancock and Suzuki are great players too; but, not necessarily better for Saginaw or Niagara than the players they acquired.

No, I would have added one or two of those guys in addition to McLeod/Tippett/O'Grady. Do you see Saginaw getting past the CF? I think they're running a high risk game of even GETTING to the CF. If that's the case, what's the point? Hey! We're gonna spend a bunch of assets and go to the second round! Y'know? That just seems ill advised to me. If you're going to "go in" in the current OHL, then go "all in". Don't half-azz it and diminish assets just so you can get past the first round. Which I think they could have done without the additions. I think if they run into London in round 2, they're done. I think Guelph most likely beats them. I think they stand a decent chance of beating the Greyhounds and to be honest I would somewhat enjoy watching them get their vengeance there this year after round 1 last season. Thats what concerns me with Flint. Despite Dellandrea, Durham, Busby, McCourt, Holmes, Wismer being 19 (Durham OA), I don't see next year as the year they're ready to make a run. If they wanna prove me wrong early next year? Awesome, but I'd rather see a sell off next year and then have the assets to take a real shot in 20-21.

 

[dirty12]

No, I would have added one or two of those guys in addition to McLeod/Tippett/O'Grady. Do you see Saginaw getting past the CF? I think they're running a high risk game of even GETTING to the CF. If that's the case, what's the point? Hey! We're gonna spend a bunch of assets and go to the second round! Y'know? That just seems ill advised to me. If you're going to "go in" in the current OHL, then go "all in". Don't half-azz it and diminish assets just so you can get past the first round. Which I think they could have done without the additions. I think if they run into London in round 2, they're done. I think Guelph most likely beats them. I think they stand a decent chance of beating the Greyhounds and to be honest I would somewhat enjoy watching them get their vengeance there this year after round 1 last season. Thats what concerns me with Flint. Despite Dellandrea, Durham, Busby, McCourt, Holmes, Wismer being 19 (Durham OA), I don't see next year as the year they're ready to make a run. If they wanna prove me wrong early next year? Awesome, but I'd rather see a sell off next year and then have the assets to take a real shot in 20-21.

I don’t think Flint needs to sell off for assets to go all in 2020-21. They have picks, probably more coming from Power and condition on K.Pearson; plus, Flint can trade some of the 8-2000 born as OA. Also, their 3-3rds this coming draft might be best used as trade chips at 17, similar to what Guelph, Saginaw, London, & Niagara did this season. Rather than sell next season, (I would) add the best OA F available and see how far that takes them.

Saginaw past the CF? Probably not. I do see them in the CF after a 2vs3 win over the Soo, though. That’s pretty good; and, they will be still pretty well set for another run in the near future. I really think Saginaw was a little over loaded with disposable assets and used them well.

 

[Savard18]

I don’t think Flint needs to sell off for assets to go all in 2020-21. They have picks, probably more coming from Power and condition on K.Pearson; plus, Flint can trade some of the 8-2000 born as OA. Also, their 3-3rds this coming draft might be best used as trade chips at 17, similar to what Guelph, Saginaw, London, & Niagara did this season. Rather than sell next season, (I would) add the best OA F available and see how far that takes them.

Saginaw past the CF? Probably not. I do see them in the CF after a 2vs3 win over the Soo, though. That’s pretty good; and, they will be still pretty well set for another run in the near future. I really think Saginaw was a little over loaded with disposable assets and used them well.

It would be nice to know what the conditionals on the Kaleb Pearson deal are. I don't see why something like that needs to be kept secret. Either way, I don't think it'll be much but any return from a 2nd round pick in the U18 draft is pretty good. As for Owen Power. He's playing for Chicago in the USHL currently and doing pretty well. He still has 2 seasons before he's NHL draft eligible, so there should be quite a bit of value there. Branch or his replacement need to get a confirmation he'll report or make moving him a top priority this offseason. Mete netted OS 3 2nd's, and 2 3rd's (+ comp pick which Flint won't receive) I believe. I'll be fine if they can sign him or pull off something similar.

 

[bcspragu]

Power's family advisor is Quinn and Jack Hughes dad. Both who went USDTP and NCAA (I mean Jack is going straight NHL but tried to get NCAA this season). My guess is somewhere in there there is some anti-chl feelings for whatever reason. Most likely scenario is Power plays 2 years USHL then either goes to school pre-draft year like Quinn or requests a trade to a contender.