GDT: FLAMES (26-19-11) VS. FLYERS (22-25-10) | 2 p.m. MT | TV: Sportsnet West | RADIO: Sportsnet 960 The FAN

[super6646]

Philadelphia Flyers @ Calgary Flames, 2023-02-20

Great our xGF% was almost 65%, doesn’t matter if we’re giving up 9 high danger chances and creating just 10. And this is against the worst offense in the league remember. Unacceptable regardless of goalie performance (which is also unacceptable).

Everyone is agreeing Marky is the single biggest issue, nobody is disputing that. But I’m definitely disputing that we’re a great defensive team that Marky is single-handedly ruining. Consider score adjustments and you’ll see how our HDCA and is average / middle of the pack. Our xGA numbers are great but when we completely break down on the few chances against we have it negates all that great ability. I think our team as a whole is solid defensively, but should be much better. We should not be giving up the quality chances we did yesterday, last week against Detroit, and before the break against Chicago, Columbus etc.

Calgary Flames Team Report

Marky sucks, but the D has been disappointing too. I’m just being realistic that simply replacing Marky with a league average goalie and we still are not good enough to be a real contender

So by one metric we barely beat Philly out, but the other ones (scoring chances, corsi, xGF) just don’t play into it? We dominated in those regards.

And how do score adjustments account for the fact we’ve given up 43 less high danger chances than league average this season? That’s a pretty major discrepancy.

And again, how is this disappointing? Unless you are expecting 1995 devils reincarnation or the bruins of the 1970s this is top tier in the nhl. Almost every significant metric has the flames as top 5 caliber in scoring chances for and against, there is little more our team can do.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

So by one metric we barely beat Philly out, but the other ones (scoring chances, corsi, xGF) just don’t play into it? We dominated in those regards.

And how do score adjustments account for the fact we’ve given up 43 less high danger chances than league average this season? That’s a pretty major discrepancy.

And again, how is this disappointing? Unless you are expecting 1995 devils reincarnation or the bruins of the 1970s this is top tier in the nhl. Almost every significant metric has the flames as top 5 caliber in scoring chances for and against, there is little more our team can do.

If you wanna go by xGF then sure, we’re a top-5 caliber team. Do you believe that is an accurate indicator of how good your team actually is? And that we are top-5 team without Marky?

I sure don’t, I think we don’t have the scoring and our D is better on paper (and by Corsi and xGA) than it is in practice. Giving up those chances against Philly, just imagine this team against Colorado or Edmonton lol.

All I’m trying to argue is that, in addition to replacing Marky, I would be very interested in a D upgrade. Not saying Marky isn’t the main problem or they our d is overall bad

 

[super6646]

If you wanna go by xGF then sure, we’re a top-5 caliber team. Do you believe that is an accurate indicator of how good your team actually is? And that we are top-5 team without Marky?

I sure don’t, I think we don’t have the scoring and our D is better on paper (and by Corsi and xGA) than it is in practice. Giving up those chances against Philly, just imagine this team against Colorado or Edmonton lol.

All I’m trying to argue is that, in addition to replacing Marky, I would be very interested in a D upgrade. Not saying Marky isn’t the main problem or they our d is overall bad

We’re also one of the best at preventing high danger chances.

With average goaltending we are probably closer to top 5 in GA than top 16. That doesn’t make us a top 5 team, but sure as hell better than being 18th

 

[CamPopplestone]

Our team is the perfect example of how people who solely judge on advanced stats and analytics aren't seeing the entire picture, and how that shit is borderline ruining the sport in a lot of ways. You watch us play regularly, and we do not look like a top 10-15 team in this league, yet all the fancy stats say we should be.

They're a tool, not the entire story

 

[beakerboy]

Does anyone else think that the Weegar hit on Konecny was dirty AF? Like, I have no problem with him running the guy over, but then the pitchfork into the jewels was pretty egregious. The flex on the stick when he did it was crazy. "Upper Body Injury".

 

[Ace Rimmer]

We’re also one of the best at preventing high danger chances.

With average goaltending we are probably closer to top 5 in GA than top 16. That doesn’t make us a top 5 team, but sure as hell better than being 18th

The Flames have lost 20 one goal games. Maybe it's up to 21 or 22 now. Don't know how you don't look at goaltending this season, even without backing it up with fancy stats, and go "Nope, that's not the problem". Especially early on, when the first or second shot was all but guaranteed to go in on Markstrom. Vladar's also had struggles of late.

If the team lets in one fewer goal (or scores one more goal) every 4-5 games, (probably represented by about 0.05 sv%) means they could wind up with an extra 8-12 points in the standings. Good enough to be hovering around #1 in the west, certainly not sitting on the bubble the way they are now. It's almost as if the Flames are missing a 40 goal scorer in the lineup. Who woulda thunk?

It's fair to spread out the reason for this, as it's not just goaltending - more than one thing can be true. Muffins into the crest of the opposing goalie's jersey aren't exactly "high danger". An absurd # of goalposts seem to be hit this season. Defense is missing one of their most mobile guys in Kylington, and I think that's affecting breakouts and puck recovery even if he pivots like a baby deer sometimes.

 

[super6646]

The Flames have lost 20 one goal games. Maybe it's up to 21 or 22 now. Don't know how you don't look at goaltending this season, even without backing it up with fancy stats, and go "Nope, that's not the problem". Especially early on, when the first or second shot was all but guaranteed to go in on Markstrom. Vladar's also had struggles of late.

If the team lets in one fewer goal (or scores one more goal) every 4-5 games, (probably represented by about 0.05 sv%) means they could wind up with an extra 8-12 points in the standings. Good enough to be hovering around #1 in the west, certainly not sitting on the bubble the way they are now.

It's fair to spread out the reason for this, as it's not just goaltending - more than one thing can be true. Muffins into the crest of the opposing goalie's jersey aren't exactly "high danger". An absurd # of goalposts seem to be hit this season. Defense is missing one of their most mobile guys in Kylington, and I think that's affecting breakouts and puck recovery even if he pivots like a baby deer sometimes.

It's almost as if the Flames are missing a 40 goal scorer in the lineup. Who woulda thunk?

We’re an average scoring team however.

The goaltending being better would help a lot.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

We’re an average scoring team however.

The goaltending being better would help a lot.

You mean run & gun isn't an option with this coach?

 

[RasmusAndersson]

The Flames have lost 20 one goal games. Maybe it's up to 21 or 22 now. Don't know how you don't look at goaltending this season, even without backing it up with fancy stats, and go "Nope, that's not the problem". Especially early on, when the first or second shot was all but guaranteed to go in on Markstrom. Vladar's also had struggles of late.

If the team lets in one fewer goal (or scores one more goal) every 4-5 games, (probably represented by about 0.05 sv%) means they could wind up with an extra 8-12 points in the standings. Good enough to be hovering around #1 in the west, certainly not sitting on the bubble the way they are now. It's almost as if the Flames are missing a 40 goal scorer in the lineup. Who woulda thunk?

It's fair to spread out the reason for this, as it's not just goaltending - more than one thing can be true. Muffins into the crest of the opposing goalie's jersey aren't exactly "high danger". An absurd # of goalposts seem to be hit this season. Defense is missing one of their most mobile guys in Kylington, and I think that's affecting breakouts and puck recovery even if he pivots like a baby deer sometimes.

At this point is anyone not saying Markstrom has been the #1 problem? I think we all admit that he is, but that realistically our struggles run deeper than that. Average scoring, defensive mistakes at bad times

 

[HellasLEAF]

Markstrom or Vladdy tomorrow you reckon

 

[Anglesmith]

Except the flames don’t give up nearly the same amount of high danger chances per game as the opposition.

Right, but what is being debated is the nature of those high danger chances. They are assigned an "expected goals" value based on the average shot taken from that location. The shots taken by DeAngelo and Konecny from between the circles last night do not have all that high of an expectation to go in, because on average an NHL team would have players around contesting the shot. The shot could be anywhere on the spectrum of danger between barely getting the puck to the net while being wrestled to the ice with no one else around to being able to pick your spot with no pressure and guys moving in front of the goalie. Those two shots were right near the most dangerous side of that spectrum.

And that's unfortunately been the case all year. Low number of chances, but dealing with a lot of those chances in the worst possible way. The Konecny goal happens after both defencemen on a 2-on-2 did something dumb. Note that if he makes that same move and shoots, but Hanifin stays with him and forces an off-balance shot, the xGF is the exact same. The DeAngelo goal happens because 4 out of the 5 Flames on the ice positioned themselves poorly on a dump-in. These are not "oh every team gives those up" kinds of chances, they are coach's nightmares that should literally never happen if the team is on their game. You don't expect your goalie to make those saves, you simply thank him if he does and apologize regardless.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

At this point is anyone not saying Markstrom has been the #1 problem? I think we all admit that he is, but that realistically our struggles run deeper than that. Average scoring, defensive mistakes at bad times

They all suck right now, let's be honest.

Getting better though, but the progress is slower than I'd like.

 

[Mobiandi]

Every step forwards feels like they might turn the corner and then you get a stinker like this one