Fisher’s 8th Annual NHL Mock Draft: 2019, Rounds 1-7

[SuperScript29]

I see what you are saying, but beyond the Russian factor/history, I was taking Podkolzin as BPA there for Detroit. He's still my third-ranked prospect for 2019 and I see him developing into the third most impactful forward from this draft class, though others will give him a run for that title (Turcotte in particular).

I don't even think it has anything to do with the Russian factor, if the Wings see him as the BPA then they will draft him. The thing is all these lists I see make it seem like Podkolzin is a lock for the Wings because of Yzerman's history with drafting Russians. So I just wanted to clarify that if Yzerman's history is any indication, we're likely not taking a Russian that high.

The reality is outside of the top-2, there really isn't a lot of gaps among the players in the top-10, and as of now, the biggest need for Detroit is either a dman or a playmaking center. For that reason I see players like Byram, Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Dach, or even Broberg taking a higher priority over Podkolzin.

 

[Moskau]

Why not Broberg? He's not quite on Dahlin's level, but he's got legit top-pairing upside. The potential to build a blue line around those two Swedes for the next decade would have me very excited as a Sabres fan.

I don't think he's the 7th best player in this draft and defense is the one area of Buffalo's prospect pool and farm system that is actually in a good spot with a few very underrated prospects. I'm not sold on any forward prospect outside of Olofsson and Asplund ever becoming an NHL regular for Buffalo. I expect Nylander to either be playing for a different organization next season or with Seattle in 2021.

Buffalo needs forwards on the NHL and AHL team and the best player available at 8 will be a forward. I would be choked if they took Broberg,

 

[Larry Fisher]

Nice list.
Great effort!
I very much agree on Turcotte probably going #3 and forcing Colorado into picking their 2nd (or better 4th choice )forward. Byram to Colorado just is not going to happen no matter how much I would like it.

I just hope they pick Dach over Zegras personally. Not a fan at all of Zegras at #4.

Also believe Podkolzin will slide out of the top10 (or atleast to the 8-12 range) and that Seider will be picked in the top15. Maybe even in the top10. His injury history is an issue but aside from that I feel that people are really sleeping on him and especially his offensive game. I mean the kid broke the record for youngest D to score multiple goals in their WC debut and was clearly head and shoulders above his peers offensively on Team Germany. I just don't see those limitations others see in his offensive game at all.
And I think a team will fall in love with him early. Wouldn't even be surprised if Ralph Krueger would push for him at #7. I think if the Sabres "reach" for one of the non-Byram Ds, it will be Seider and not Broberg.

I also agree that Knight to the Avs makes some sense but its very unlikely to happen. Recent comments indicate that the Avs are content with what they have for now and continuing their scattergun approach searching for their own Binnington instead of investing that 1st into Knight.

Lots to take in there, appreciate it. Seider really grew on me throughout the draft year and was a riser again in my final rankings, topping out at No. 15. So I doubt he lasts as long as he did in my mock, ditto for Bjornfot (No. 18 for me). My mock was mostly done prior to the men's worlds, so safe to say Seider will be going higher in my consensus mock to come. I see a lot of similarities between Seider and Broberg, Seider being more physical, Broberg being a bit more sound defensively, but their size and skating and offensive tools are quite comparable IMO. I agree that either of them, Broberg or Seider, could be the second D off the board after Byram and that it could happen in the top 10 with Buffalo among the possible suitors.

If Podkolzin gets past Detroit, I agree that he likely falls out of the top 10. I don't see Buffalo, Edmonton, Anaheim or Vancouver having much interest in Podklozin even if he proves to be BPA down the road. Minnesota and Florida would be the next potential landing spots for Podkolzin at 12-13 IMO.

I really like the Avs top four picks in my mock and Colorado's results as a whole. I'd say honourable mention among my mock winners, but passing on Byram could come back to bite them. I'm a big Zegras fan, but I do have Dach ahead of him in my final rankings (they are 7-8, respectively), so I could see that pick going either way. Difficult decision IMO. If Chicago takes Byram, then Colorado takes Turcotte, right?

 

[Playmaker09]

Maybe they are due for a Quebec-born first-rounder? Or overdue? I know the history, but I think Lavoie checks a lot of boxes for Montreal, including being a local product. I think he'd grow on you once he's in a Habs jersey.

I have no real issue with the pick if that's how 1-14 go.

I have an issue with your swipe at our "wannabe scout" fanbase which you then justify by selecting a player you personally have ranked #25 based on him being a) French and b) a fit for replacing a lazy, perimeter player everyone wanted gone.

 

[Larry Fisher]

There is a person who does some reporting on Sabre prospects who has quietly indicated that Boldy is a prefered target. He tends to know the minds of their scouting staff.

Then there are the rest of us plebeian posters who look at the glaring weaknesses of the team, from being small to ineffective to churchmouse scared and think someone who is rambunctious could be a straw that stirs the team's drink in Krebs.

Well, Boldy has nice size (bigger than Krebs) and a bit of rambunctiousness to his game too, along with some razzle dazzle. I could see Buffalo going with Boldy or Caufield, one of those remaining forwards from the program as a scoring winger for the future. Boldy is sounding like the frontrunner for Buffalo for my consensus mock, which would really shake up the back half of my top 10, especially if Detroit passes on Podkolzin too.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I don't like the Podkolzin pick at all. Nor do I like the narrative that's popped up around this. Just because Al Murray drafted some Russians in TB doesn't mean that Yzerman is automatically going to draft a Russian. Yzerman has always drafted his first player from the CHL, and I expect that to continue.

It's ridiculous how drafting Russians in later rounds when the value was right has been turned into some kind of Russophila on Yzerman's part.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I don't even think it has anything to do with the Russian factor, if the Wings see him as the BPA then they will draft him. The thing is all these lists I see make it seem like Podkolzin is a lock for the Wings because of Yzerman's history with drafting Russians. So I just wanted to clarify that if Yzerman's history is any indication, we're likely not taking a Russian that high.

The reality is outside of the top-2, there really isn't a lot of gaps among the players in the top-10, and as of now, the biggest need for Detroit is either a dman or a playmaking center. For that reason I see players like Byram, Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Dach, or even Broberg taking a higher priority over Podkolzin.

Noted again. You guys are really trying to shake up my top 10 haha I'm listening and appreciate all the feedback. Luckily I have a couple weeks to finalize that consensus mock.

 

[JoemAvs]

Lots to take in there, appreciate it. Seider really grew on me throughout the draft year and was a riser again in my final rankings, topping out at No. 15. So I doubt he lasts as long as he did in my mock, ditto for Bjornfot (No. 18 for me). My mock was mostly done prior to the men's worlds, so safe to say Seider will be going higher in my consensus mock to come. I see a lot of similarities between Seider and Broberg, Seider being more physical, Broberg being a bit more sound defensively, but their size and skating and offensive tools are quite comparable IMO. I agree that either of them, Broberg or Seider, could be the second D off the board after Byram and that it could happen in the top 10 with Buffalo among the possible suitors.

If Podkolzin gets past Detroit, I agree that he likely falls out of the top 10. I don't see Buffalo, Edmonton, Anaheim or Vancouver having much interest in Podklozin even if he proves to be BPA down the road. Minnesota and Florida would be the next potential landing spots for Podkolzin at 12-13 IMO.

I really like the Avs top four picks in my mock and Colorado's results as a whole. I'd say honourable mention among my mock winners, but passing on Byram could come back to bite them. I'm a big Zegras fan, but I do have Dach ahead of him in my final rankings (they are 7-8, respectively), so I could see that pick going either way. Difficult decision IMO. If Chicago takes Byram, then Colorado takes Turcotte, right?

Ah nice. Will be looking forward to your consensus Mock then and how you exactly rank the Non-Byram Ds..
This draft year is funny in a way that there seems to be very little consensus when it comes to ranking the second tier of Ds and Fs.

Yeah thats the range where I personally see Podkolzin go as well. Florida (if they keep the pick) might probably the most realistic landing spot for him. But as always it only takes one team (and that could be anyone. Detroit certainly is not a bad guess). I just don't think that team needs line up well for him and if you add all the other questionmarks about him as well as him being a winger bunched up together with a ton of (atleast potential) centers in the second tier, I see him dropping quite a bit. Especially because I think a team (probably EDM or BUF to pair him with Eichel or McD) will fall in love with Boldy and make him the#2 pure winger off the board.

For me personally Turcotte has separated himself a bit from the second tier forwards and he fits to a T what the Avs have been looking for in their prospects and probably even more important he would be an ideal fit as a #2 C next to MacKinnon. He is the best two-way forward of the bunch afterall and that should come in handy down the line and free up Mac to do his magic.

This draft looks wide open starting at #3 and I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Avs pass on Turcotte if he is there but it certainly would surprise me quite a bit.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I don't think he's the 7th best player in this draft and defense is the one area of Buffalo's prospect pool and farm system that is actually in a good spot with a few very underrated prospects. I'm not sold on any forward prospect outside of Olofsson and Asplund ever becoming an NHL regular for Buffalo. I expect Nylander to either be playing for a different organization next season or with Seattle in 2021.

Buffalo needs forwards on the NHL and AHL team and the best player available at 8 will be a forward. I would be choked if they took Broberg,

We beg to differ on the BPA at No. 7 since I'm higher on Broberg than most and he finished at No. 5 in my final rankings (he was No. 5 for me from January through June). So I think Broberg would be a great pick for Buffalo, but I knew that might not be well received by the masses. I'll definitely reconsider for my consensus mock, with Boldy having a leg up on the rest of the forwards based on the feedback I've been receiving thus far.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I have no real issue with the pick if that's how 1-14 go.

I have an issue with your swipe at our "wannabe scout" fanbase which you then justify by selecting a player you personally have ranked #25 based on him being a) French and b) a fit for replacing a lazy, perimeter player everyone wanted gone.

I'm just shocked at the anti-Lavoie sentiments on Twitter. It seems like there are a lot of online scouts who are Habs fans and they really don't want Lavoie. It doesn't make any sense to me. I'm not Lavoie's biggest fan personally (thus ranked No. 25 for me), but I kept coming back to him as the best fit for Montreal. I'll go in a different direction for my consensus mock.

 

[SuperScript29]

Noted again. You guys are really trying to shake up my top 10 haha I'm listening and appreciate all the feedback. Luckily I have a couple weeks to finalize that consensus mock.

This is not directed toward you, I actually enjoyed your work and thought it was a great read. I was talking in general, most lists I see have Podkolzin to Detroit for the reason that Yzerman drafts Russians.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I don't like the Podkolzin pick at all. Nor do I like the narrative that's popped up around this. Just because Al Murray drafted some Russians in TB doesn't mean that Yzerman is automatically going to draft a Russian. Yzerman has always drafted his first player from the CHL, and I expect that to continue.

It's ridiculous how drafting Russians in later rounds when the value was right has been turned into some kind of Russophila on Yzerman's part.

So, from the CHL, that narrows it down to Dach (somewhat similar to Rasmussen), Cozens or Krebs? Unless you are reaching for Tomasino (could be this year's Hayton), Kaliyev or Lavoie? If that's the case, maybe Detroit trades down to take a CHLer in the teens instead of staying at No. 6?

 

[Chainshot]

We beg to differ on the BPA at No. 7 since I'm higher on Broberg than most and he finished at No. 5 in my final rankings (he was No. 5 for me from January through June). So I think Broberg would be a great pick for Buffalo, but I knew that might not be well received by the masses. I'll definitely reconsider for my consensus mock, with Boldy having a leg up on the rest of the forwards based on the feedback I've been receiving thus far.

That is one of the fun things about this draft, the tier from 3-11 or so is pretty open to interpretation at this point.

And @Moskau is correct, there is very little of note in the Sabre forward prospect pool but they do have a collection of possible 4-7 guys at various stages of development. I'm not sure if he would agree with me on Kris Baker's take, but Baker is usually pretty solid when it comes to knowing the minds of their scouting department. And he has them taking Boldy if (when) Turcotte or Zegras aren't on the board.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

So, from the CHL, that narrows it down to Dach (somewhat similar to Rasmussen), Cozens or Krebs? Unless you are reaching for Tomasino (could be this year's Hayton), Kaliyev or Lavoie? If that's the case, maybe Detroit trades down to take a CHLer in the teens instead of staying at No. 6?

My guess is Cozens, but I also value him more highly than you do.

Although, not gonna lie... I wish it were Krebs. Unfortunately, I don't think it's in the cards.

 

[JoemAvs]

This is not directed toward you, I actually enjoyed your work and thought it was a great read. I was talking in general, most lists I see have Podkolzin to Detroit for the reason that Yzerman drafts Russians.

I think thats mainly people looking for a viable landing spot for Podkolzin. He was ranked very high for a long time and therefore people will be more hesitant to drop him too far down their lists.
But as Larry stated, it is very tough to find a proper landing spot for him in the #5-10 range. Thats where the Yzerman likes his Russians narrative probably comes into play.
There are also a few Yzerman quotes out there praising Podkolzin after the WJC or another tournament IIRC. Thats probably where a lot of this comes from.

I personally agree that he IMO is not the greatest fit as a prospect for Detroit but I also wouldn't rule it out either. I think there is a chance that Byram drops to you guys but if that does not happen, IMO there are a lot of different ways Yzerman could go. Grabbing a guy he apparantely seems to like does not sound unreasonable.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Cozens/Bjornfot/Poulin would be an insane first 3 picks for the Ducks and I am here for it

 

[Playmaker09]

I'm just shocked at the anti-Lavoie sentiments on Twitter. It seems like there are a lot of online scouts who are Habs fans and they really don't want Lavoie. It doesn't make any sense to me. I'm not Lavoie's biggest fan personally (thus ranked No. 25 for me), but I kept coming back to him as the best fit for Montreal. I'll go in a different direction for my consensus mock.

It's not awful.

Your 1-14 is the worst case scenario for us as it leaves us with Soderstrom/Seider as BPA who are both RD - and which we have absolutely no use for.

All the remaining wingers have major question marks in Kaliyev, Brink, Dorofeyev, Lavoie. Maybe add Tomasino as well.

And I'm personally not big on York or Harley.

So if our scouting staff believes Lavoie to be the best among that group of wingers, then I'm not that upset.

But in any case where literally any of your top 14 are available, I'd question the Lavoie pick.

 

[Moskau]

We beg to differ on the BPA at No. 7 since I'm higher on Broberg than most and he finished at No. 5 in my final rankings (he was No. 5 for me from January through June). So I think Broberg would be a great pick for Buffalo, but I knew that might not be well received by the masses. I'll definitely reconsider for my consensus mock, with Boldy having a leg up on the rest of the forwards based on the feedback I've been receiving thus far.

I know they aren't talked about at all around here but the Sabres organization are very high on Will Borgen, Oskari Laaksonen and Jacob Bryson. Obviously if Broberg is as good as you feel he is then I don't think those 3 would give them second thoughts as they aren't A+ prospects. But there is some defensive depth in the Sabres prospect pool. Somehow despite finishing bottom 5 for the last decade the forward depth is much worse. Olofsson and Asplund will be NHL players. Mittelstadt is still basically a prospect so we can include him. Nylander I don't have high hopes for. Then you have Pekar and Weissbach as maybe someday. And the absolute hilarity is that they're probably going to lose one of their decent young forwards to Seattle.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Ah nice. Will be looking forward to your consensus Mock then and how you exactly rank the Non-Byram Ds..
This draft year is funny in a way that there seems to be very little consensus when it comes to ranking the second tier of Ds and Fs.

Yeah thats the range where I personally see Podkolzin go as well. Florida (if they keep the pick) might probably the most realistic landing spot for him. But as always it only takes one team (and that could be anyone. Detroit certainly is not a bad guess). I just don't think that team needs line up well for him and if you add all the other questionmarks about him as well as him being a winger bunched up together with a ton of (atleast potential) centers in the second tier, I see him dropping quite a bit. Especially because I think a team (probably EDM or BUF to pair him with Eichel or McD) will fall in love with Boldy and make him the#2 pure winger off the board.

For me personally Turcotte has separated himself a bit from the second tier forwards and he fits to a T what the Avs have been looking for in their prospects and probably even more important he would be an ideal fit as a #2 C next to MacKinnon. He is the best two-way forward of the bunch afterall and that should come in handy down the line and free up Mac to do his magic.

This draft looks wide open starting at #3 and I wouldn't be completely shocked if the Avs pass on Turcotte if he is there but it certainly would surprise me quite a bit.

Yeah, not an easy year to be mocking, but a fun year nonetheless. My rankings are set in stone now for the D beyond Byram: https://thehockeywriters.com/2019-nhl-draft-rankings-june/

But mocks are a different beast from rankings. The consensus mock will slot prospects based largely on feedback and new information/speculation from fellow scouts, media and fan bases rather than my own opinions. It's a different outlook and I won't be providing analysis with that mock because it's too time-consuming, so it'll just be a single article listing rounds 1-7, well maybe a second article recapping the team results with some brief analysis there (time permitting).

But you are right, there is very little consensus right now beyond the top two or the top four (if you believe Byram to Chicago and Turcotte to Colorado), so I won't be able to make everyone happy with this year's consensus mock. Stay tuned!

 

[Larry Fisher]

It's not awful.

Your 1-14 is the worst case scenario for us as it leaves us with Soderstrom/Seider as BPA who are both RD - and which we have absolutely no use for.

All the remaining wingers have major question marks in Kaliyev, Brink, Dorofeyev, Lavoie. Maybe add Tomasino as well.

And I'm personally not big on York or Harley.

So if our scouting staff believes Lavoie to be the best among that group of wingers, then I'm not that upset.

But in any case where literally any of your top 14 are available, I'd question the Lavoie pick.

I appreciate that feedback, lots of sound reasoning and rationale there. I can totally see where you are coming from on all fronts.

 

[SuperScript29]

I think thats mainly people looking for a viable landing spot for Podkolzin. He was ranked very high for a long time and therefore people will be more hesitant to drop him too far down their lists.
But as Larry stated, it is very tough to find a proper landing spot for him in the #5-10 range. Thats where the Yzerman likes his Russians narrative probably comes into play.
There are also a few Yzerman quotes out there praising Podkolzin after the WJC or another tournament IIRC. Thats probably where a lot of this comes from.

I personally agree that he IMO is not the greatest fit as a prospect for Detroit but I also wouldn't rule it out either. I think there is a chance that Byram drops to you guys but if that does not happen, IMO there are a lot of different ways Yzerman could go. Grabbing a guy he apparantely seems to like does not sound unreasonable.

With Yzerman I think it's going to come down to his scouting staff, he's the kind of GM that likes to hire the right people and let them do their thing. I feel like this argument can be made for Holland in Edmonton, he could take Podkolzin the same way he took Zadina last year.

 

[JoemAvs]

With Yzerman I think it's going to come down to his scouting staff, he's the kind of GM that likes to hire the right people and let them do their thing. I feel like this argument can be made for Holland in Edmonton, he could take Podkolzin the same way he took Zadina last year.

I just don't think Edmonton can afford to wait on him. He is atleast 2 years out (due to his contract).
I am also not sure that they will go for the Euro winger with questionmarks (after what happened with Puljujarvi) over the safe North American kid (Boldy) who might even be a better fit for McDavid stylewise.

I think realistically nobody has any ideas about what Yzerman will do in Detroit. I agree that he is the type of GM that lets his scouts do the work. But only if he fully trusts them like he did in Tampa after they found gem after gem. Not sure how familiar he is with the current Red Wings staff and how much he trusts them with the first (top5) pick of his tenure.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Flames have picked a ton of undersized skill boom/bust type prospects in the last several years. I don't really mind it but I think they want to add a bit more diversity to their pool.

 

[HanSolo]

I like it for Anaheim

 

[HabsForHire]

It's not awful.

Your 1-14 is the worst case scenario for us as it leaves us with Soderstrom/Seider as BPA who are both RD - and which we have absolutely no use for.

All the remaining wingers have major question marks in Kaliyev, Brink, Dorofeyev, Lavoie. Maybe add Tomasino as well.

And I'm personally not big on York or Harley.

So if our scouting staff believes Lavoie to be the best among that group of wingers, then I'm not that upset.

But in any case where literally any of your top 14 are available, I'd question the Lavoie pick.

My thoughts exactly. Lavoie is not my #1 pick but i dont like york and harley even more. Tomasino would be number 2 if this is how the draft went down