Fisher’s 8th Annual NHL Mock Draft: 2019, Rounds 1-7

[Castle8130]

I just can't find the logic in teams passing on Caufield after the season and tournament play he just had. He should be going in the top 10 without question.

 

[Canadienna]

You obviously put a ton of work on this, but as usual with the Habs the mock drafts just choose whichever french Canadian player is in the area they're picking. Regardless of the team's actual needs.

Marketability isn't enough.

 

[Dr Awesome]

Nice list. However I’d hope oilers take McMichael with their second if hes kicking around

 

[snipes]

Dach and Leason with our first two picks? **** yeah.

Great work as always, you are my favourite author around draft time to read every year.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Flames have picked a ton of undersized skill boom/bust type prospects in the last several years. I don't really mind it but I think they want to add a bit more diversity to their pool.

You’re thinking D and maybe even a G? Or bigger forwards? Going all forwards again for the second year in a row would be a pretty interesting strategy for the Flames, but all those forwards struck me as BPA or best fits for Calgary. I’m open-minded to making adjustments for my consensus mock, so any and all feedback is welcomed and will be taken into consideration.

 

[Larry Fisher]

My thoughts exactly. Lavoie is not my #1 pick but i dont like york and harley even more. Tomasino would be number 2 if this is how the draft went down

It was between Lavoie, Tomasino and Suzuki for me, but I can see the need for LD too. That will be an interesting pick for Montreal.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I just can't find the logic in teams passing on Caufield after the season and tournament play he just had. He should be going in the top 10 without question.

It would be a size thing again and whether head scouts are willing to stick their neck out for the little guy. The fact the two teams in the Cup final are "bigger" could also creep into the minds of GMs. A guy like Johnny Gaudreau was great in the regular season but didn't do much in the playoffs when the whistles went away and the bigger bodies were able to take away time and space. Food for thought for any teams considering Caufield in the top 10. Ultimately, the goal is to win Cups and size still matters (or seems to matter) when the games matter the most.

 

[Larry Fisher]

You obviously put a ton of work on this, but as usual with the Habs the mock drafts just choose whichever french Canadian player is in the area they're picking. Regardless of the team's actual needs.

Marketability isn't enough.

Well, Lavoie is a scorer with size. That seems to fit Montreal's needs up front — with Pacioretty gone — and it's more of a bonus that the kid filling that need is from the Habs' own backyard. I just put 2+2 together.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Nice list. However I’d hope oilers take McMichael with their second if hes kicking around

That's definitely a possibility. Edmonton has had success drafting from the OHL in recent years and that trend could certainly continue in 2019. That was a regret for me, when my mock wrapped up I didn't have any OHLers to the Oilers. Chances are that changes for my consensus mock, although Chiarelli's brother had a big say in that OHL scouting/drafting.

 

[rt]

I’m a Coyotes fan. So obviously I think this mock is great!

 

[emptyNedder]

Larry. Pretty impressive how much work you put into your lists and then mock drafts. All the insights are really appreciated.

As a Carolina fan I enjoyed the Raleigh is the new Helsinki take.

Keep up the good work. Looking forward to your updated mocks as you get input from other scouts.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Another list with Hughes at #1

 

[eco's bones]

I like the pickup of Albin Grewe and Spiridonov is fine. Tuomisto is alright where we take him too but Honka at 20 OA would be extremely disappointing for me. I get that the Rangers usually make at least one of those (Lindbom last year--but the jury is still out and an injury pretty much wrecked his year) every year but they're going to get panned all over this site for taking Honka and particularly on their own forum. The other thing--the Rangers don't need to load up on Finns just because of Kakko.

Seider if available is obviously a guy we should take over Honka. Personally I don't see Honka in the first two rounds. Rangers could use more size on RD and potentially pairing Seider and K'Andre Miller one day makes sense to me.

One last thing--I'd save the 7th used on Miftakhov for someone else and invite Amir over for development camp and sign him as a free agent if he did well enough. We're pretty good on goalies though.

 

[57special]

My thoughts exactly. Lavoie is not my #1 pick but i dont like york and harley even more. Tomasino would be number 2 if this is how the draft went down

Don't understand you not liking those Dmen. York is solid, and almost a guaranteed top 4 guy. Harley is one of my personal favs. He might take a bit longer to fill out, but all those comparisons to Chabot should be enough to get anyone excited who is picking in the mid teens and needs a LHD.

 

[Playmaker09]

Don't understand you not liking those Dmen. York is solid, and almost a guaranteed top 4 guy. Harley is one of my personal favs. He might take a bit longer to fill out, but all those comparisons to Chabot should be enough to get anyone excited who is picking in the mid teens and needs a LHD.

I don't believe York pushes the needle hard enough on offense to be a top tier producer at the NHL level. He's also smaller and nowhere near as good defensively as Morrissey or McAvoy. I think he ends up a meh 2nd pair D. Upside - Shattenkirk, Downside - Pouliot, most likely ends up something like Goligoski.

As for Harley, there are many more examples of players of his ilk busting than turning into Chabot, who had a massive development curve. Beaulieu, Pouliot, Mike Reilly, Joe Morrow, Rundblad, Del Zotto, Sanguinetti etc. They either develop into explosive top pairing D's like 20% of the time or, more likely, are bottom pairing PP specialist defenders who can't hold down a job because of their inability to play D.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I like the pickup of Albin Grewe and Spiridonov is fine. Tuomisto is alright where we take him too but Honka at 20 OA would be extremely disappointing for me. I get that the Rangers usually make at least one of those (Lindbom last year--but the jury is still out and an injury pretty much wrecked his year) every year but they're going to get panned all over this site for taking Honka and particularly on their own forum. The other thing--the Rangers don't need to load up on Finns just because of Kakko.

Seider if available is obviously a guy we should take over Honka. Personally I don't see Honka in the first two rounds. Rangers could use more size on RD and potentially pairing Seider and K'Andre Miller one day makes sense to me.

One last thing--I'd save the 7th used on Miftakhov for someone else and invite Amir over for development camp and sign him as a free agent if he did well enough. We're pretty good on goalies though.

Thanks for the feedback, noted. And I didn’t mention it in my analysis but you’re right that part of my thinking/rationale for Honka is that the Rangers are a team that tends to “reach” in the first round for a prospect that they like more than the consensus. Andersson and Kravtsov were also taken higher than the consensus predicted. I just have a feeling the Rangers might throw that second dart at a target not many are ranking/mocking in the first round. Ryan Johnson and Marshall Warren could be other D reaches. Maybe they go Hoglander, Grewe, Nikolayev or Spiridonov there if targeting two forwards in the first round. So many possibilities but I wouldn’t necessarily expect the Rangers to be taking the next consensus BPA at 20. It might not be Honka (it probably won’t be, in reality), but that could totally be an off-the-board surprise pick IMO.

 

[Castle8130]

It would be a size thing again and whether head scouts are willing to stick their neck out for the little guy. The fact the two teams in the Cup final are "bigger" could also creep into the minds of GMs. A guy like Johnny Gaudreau was great in the regular season but didn't do much in the playoffs when the whistles went away and the bigger bodies were able to take away time and space. Food for thought for any teams considering Caufield in the top 10. Ultimately, the goal is to win Cups and size still matters (or seems to matter) when the games matter the most.

I agree that some smaller players don't perform well in the playoffs, but then you have players like Schwartz that are just killing it in the playoffs.

 

[HabsForHire]

Don't understand you not liking those Dmen. York is solid, and almost a guaranteed top 4 guy. Harley is one of my personal favs. He might take a bit longer to fill out, but all those comparisons to Chabot should be enough to get anyone excited who is picking in the mid teens and needs a LHD.

I personally find them both very "boring" i feel they are good in most aspects but also aren't great at any either. Just my professional hf scouting opinion i could be wrong for sure

 

[eco's bones]

Thanks for the feedback, noted. And I didn’t mention it in my analysis but you’re right that part of my thinking/rationale for Honka is that the Rangers are a team that tends to “reach” in the first round for a prospect that they like more than the consensus. Andersson and Kravtsov were also taken higher than the consensus predicted. I just have a feeling the Rangers might throw that second dart at a target not many are ranking/mocking in the first round. Ryan Johnson and Marshall Warren could be other D reaches. Maybe they go Hoglander, Grewe, Nikolayev or Spiridonov there if targeting two forwards in the first round. So many possibilities but I wouldn’t necessarily expect the Rangers to be taking the next consensus BPA at 20. It might not be Honka (it probably won’t be, in reality), but that could totally be an off-the-board surprise pick IMO.

FWIW I thought your mock was going along really well until you hit us at 20.

Rangers have tons of defense prospects--I'm not against us taking more defensemen in this draft--the BPA thing but but right now if we stayed with 9 draft picks all things being equal between a forward and a D I'd lean towards the forward but 6 forwards, 3 defense would be good. True that Kakko (probably), Kravtsov, Andersson and Chytil are already here---so it's not like there's nothing but right now after Morgan Barron our unsigned forward prospects (is pardon the pun) is pretty barren.

I really like the Albin Grewe by the way. Rangers could use more edge and he's a skilled guy too.

I saw you have Beecher at 31--he's from my hometown--I'm thinking he doesn't last to 49 but if he did I'd want the Rangers on him.

 

[SuperScript29]

I just don't think Edmonton can afford to wait on him. He is atleast 2 years out (due to his contract).
I am also not sure that they will go for the Euro winger with questionmarks (after what happened with Puljujarvi) over the safe North American kid (Boldy) who might even be a better fit for McDavid stylewise.

Outside of Hughes and Kakko, all the other picks as far as I'm concerned are at least a year or two away from the NHL. So at 8th overall, its gonna make no difference because no player at that position is gonna be ready.

As for Edmonton's history with drafting Euros, I think it's kind of silly to look at it this way, say you had second overall, you think they'll pass on Kakko? Of course not, every player is different. Besides, you have a new GM, so expect changes with how things are done, especially with Holland since his background is scouting.

 

[57special]

I personally find them both very "boring" i feel they are good in most aspects but also aren't great at any either. Just my professional hf scouting opinion i could be wrong for sure

Harley is anything but boring, unless you find Chabot to be boring. Harley has a lot of potential, and actual, offensive game. Question marks for Harley are on the defensive side, but even there I don't see massive red flags.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Another list with Hughes at #1

"I do feel at least 10 of the 31 teams would take Kakko over Hughes, but not New Jersey."

Its a prediction of who will be taken. Everyone knows Jersey is all in on Hughes, so its easy to predict.

 

[tony d]

As always thanks for your efforts, you put a lot of good work into this stuff. Keep it up.

 

[Bounces R Way]

You’re thinking D and maybe even a G? Or bigger forwards? Going all forwards again for the second year in a row would be a pretty interesting strategy for the Flames, but all those forwards struck me as BPA or best fits for Calgary. I’m open-minded to making adjustments for my consensus mock, so any and all feedback is welcomed and will be taken into consideration.

I know it goes against the BPA sacrament but I was thinking RHD and a high floor speedy big forechecking type forward should be on their wish list. Treliving has mentioned scouting Seider pretty heavily but if him Thomson or Soderstrom don't fall to them Brink, Tomasino, or McMichael would all be fine with me. They might even look at Leason at #26, not really a lot of beef in the pool at the moment.

 

[izlez]

The idea that Yzerman selects Podkolzin primarily because he has a history with Russians is a little bit ridiculous

Similarly,

Tag Bertuzzi:
Central Scouting- Unranked
Writer 1 - Unranked
Writer 2 - Unranked
Writer 3 - 175

Taken By Detroit Round 5, 128th overall because Bertuzzi.