Prospect Info: Filip Gustavsson (G)

swiftwin

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Jul 26, 2005
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If he's not a substantial piece, than I guess you're saying the trade with Pitts that he was a part of was a bad trade and PD made a mistake.
The 1st round pick was the substantial piece of that trade.

Unless you're suggesting that Dorion absolutely robbed Pittsburgh with an amazing trade?
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,976
31,184
Over the last 5 years only 4 teams have worse 5-on-5 SV% than the Ottawa Senators.

Anecdotal evidence aside our goalies under perform, statistically anyway.
So, just looking at the last 5 years, here's all our goalies, 5v5. Goals saved above average is the one that takes into account the quality of chances, specifically, it is the difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV%. only guys that stand out as bad are Murray Hogberg and Sogaard.

PlayerGPTOIShots AgainstSavesGoals AgainstSV%GAAGSAAGSAA/60
Dylan Ferguson
2​
99.3333333​
75​
71​
4​
0.94666667​
2.42​
3.07​
1.85​
Leevi Merilainen
2​
60.9833333​
33​
31​
2​
0.93939394​
1.97​
1.11​
1.09​
Magnus Hellberg
1​
43.65​
26​
24​
2​
0.92307692​
2.75​
0.45​
0.62​
Joonas Korpisalo
11​
457.05​
266​
243​
23​
0.91353383​
3.02​
2.07​
0.27​
Kevin Mandolese
3​
137.933333​
80​
73​
7​
0.9125​
3.04​
0.54​
0.23​
Filip Gustavsson
27​
1225.16667​
653​
600​
53​
0.91883614​
2.6​
2.94​
0.14​
Anton Forsberg
88​
3792.45​
2036​
1864​
172​
0.91552063​
5.51​
8.4​
0.13​
Craig Anderson
34​
1458.75​
801​
735​
66​
0.917603​
2.71​
2.62​
0.11​
Anders Nilsson
20​
854.8​
472​
432​
40​
0.91525424​
2.81​
0.43​
0.03​
Joey Daccord
8​
327.616667​
173​
158​
15​
0.9132948​
2.75​
-0.18​
-0.03​
Cam Talbot
36​
1530.55​
699​
631​
68​
0.90271817​
2.67​
-2.12​
-0.08​
Matt Murray
47​
2046.61667​
1076​
977​
99​
0.90799257​
2.9​
-6.82​
-0.2​
Marcus Hogberg
38​
1615.78333​
842​
763​
79​
0.90617577​
2.93​
-6.87​
-0.26​
Mads Sogaard
21​
867.133333​
421​
376​
45​
0.89311164​
5.2​
-5.64​
-0.39​
TOTAL
338​
14517.8167​
7653​
6978​
675​
0.91179929​
43.28​
0​
0​
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
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So, just looking at the last 5 years, here's all our goalies, 5v5. Goals saved above average is the one that takes into account the quality of chances, specifically, it is the difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV%. only guys that stand out as bad are Murray Hogberg and Sogaard.

PlayerGPTOIShots AgainstSavesGoals AgainstSV%GAAGSAAGSAA/60
Dylan Ferguson
2​
99.3333333​
75​
71​
4​
0.94666667​
2.42​
3.07​
1.85​
Leevi Merilainen
2​
60.9833333​
33​
31​
2​
0.93939394​
1.97​
1.11​
1.09​
Magnus Hellberg
1​
43.65​
26​
24​
2​
0.92307692​
2.75​
0.45​
0.62​
Joonas Korpisalo
11​
457.05​
266​
243​
23​
0.91353383​
3.02​
2.07​
0.27​
Kevin Mandolese
3​
137.933333​
80​
73​
7​
0.9125​
3.04​
0.54​
0.23​
Filip Gustavsson
27​
1225.16667​
653​
600​
53​
0.91883614​
2.6​
2.94​
0.14​
Anton Forsberg
88​
3792.45​
2036​
1864​
172​
0.91552063​
5.51​
8.4​
0.13​
Craig Anderson
34​
1458.75​
801​
735​
66​
0.917603​
2.71​
2.62​
0.11​
Anders Nilsson
20​
854.8​
472​
432​
40​
0.91525424​
2.81​
0.43​
0.03​
Joey Daccord
8​
327.616667​
173​
158​
15​
0.9132948​
2.75​
-0.18​
-0.03​
Cam Talbot
36​
1530.55​
699​
631​
68​
0.90271817​
2.67​
-2.12​
-0.08​
Matt Murray
47​
2046.61667​
1076​
977​
99​
0.90799257​
2.9​
-6.82​
-0.2​
Marcus Hogberg
38​
1615.78333​
842​
763​
79​
0.90617577​
2.93​
-6.87​
-0.26​
Mads Sogaard
21​
867.133333​
421​
376​
45​
0.89311164​
5.2​
-5.64​
-0.39​
TOTAL
338​
14517.8167​
7653​
6978​
675​
0.91179929​
43.28​
0​
0​
While its hard to go through all of these I do know there is no chance these are Merilainens stats. He played 1.5 games and has an .878 save percentage. He was amazing in one game and horrible in the next. I feel like a 20 game sample size minimum is needed here.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,976
31,184
While its hard to go through all of these I do know there is no chance these are Merilainens stats. He played 1.5 games and has an .878 save percentage. He was amazing in one game and horrible in the next. I feel like a 20 game sample size minimum is needed here.
It's accurate, as I said though it's 5v5, 6 goals against total but only two were 5v5 as indicated above, not shown are 2 on the PK, 1 short handed, and one more at 3v3 in ot.

Edit, on an individual level I agree, don't read much into a guy with only two games, but the total shows at a team level,


Edit: here's the same table, but for all situations, same three guys (with a decent sample) stand out as performing poorly

PlayerGPTOIShots AgainstSavesGoals AgainstSV%GAAGSAAGSAA/60
Leevi Merilainen
2​
85.08333​
49​
43​
6​
0.878​
4.23​
-1.05​
-0.74​
Mads Sogaard
21​
1164.8​
578​
514​
64​
1.778​
6.39​
-5.85​
-0.3​
Marcus Hogberg
38​
1986.4​
1048​
938​
110​
0.895​
3.32​
-9.69​
-0.29​
Joey Daccord
8​
403.3667​
214​
192​
22​
0.897​
3.27​
-1.52​
-0.23​
Matt Murray
47​
2586.583​
1378​
1239​
139​
0.899​
3.22​
-7.1​
-0.16​
Craig Anderson
34​
1826.4​
1014​
914​
100​
0.901​
3.29​
-2.94​
-0.1​
Cam Talbot
36​
1948.417​
935​
840​
95​
0.898​
2.93​
-0.47​
-0.01​
Filip Gustavsson
27​
1520.117​
828​
749​
79​
0.905​
3.12​
0.25​
0.01​
Anders Nilsson
20​
1093.267​
628​
570​
58​
0.908​
3.18​
2.11​
0.12​
Anton Forsberg
88​
4810.333​
2658​
2416​
242​
1.812​
6.13​
17.46​
0.22​
Joonas Korpisalo
11​
586.75​
329​
298​
31​
0.906​
3.17​
2.26​
0.23​
Kevin Mandolese
3​
182.2​
119​
109​
10​
0.916​
3.29​
2.03​
0.67​
Magnus Hellberg
1​
60​
31​
29​
2​
0.935​
2​
1.13​
1.13​
Dylan Ferguson
2​
118.8667​
83​
78​
5​
0.94​
2.52​
3.39​
1.71​
TOTAL
338​
18372.58​
9892​
8929​
963​
14.468​
50.06​
0.01​
0​
 
Last edited:

Alf Silfversson

Registered User
Jun 8, 2011
5,797
4,862
So, just looking at the last 5 years, here's all our goalies, 5v5. Goals saved above average is the one that takes into account the quality of chances, specifically, it is the difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV%. only guys that stand out as bad are Murray Hogberg and Sogaard.

PlayerGPTOIShots AgainstSavesGoals AgainstSV%GAAGSAAGSAA/60
Dylan Ferguson
2​
99.3333333​
75​
71​
4​
0.94666667​
2.42​
3.07​
1.85​
Leevi Merilainen
2​
60.9833333​
33​
31​
2​
0.93939394​
1.97​
1.11​
1.09​
Magnus Hellberg
1​
43.65​
26​
24​
2​
0.92307692​
2.75​
0.45​
0.62​
Joonas Korpisalo
11​
457.05​
266​
243​
23​
0.91353383​
3.02​
2.07​
0.27​
Kevin Mandolese
3​
137.933333​
80​
73​
7​
0.9125​
3.04​
0.54​
0.23​
Filip Gustavsson
27​
1225.16667​
653​
600​
53​
0.91883614​
2.6​
2.94​
0.14​
Anton Forsberg
88​
3792.45​
2036​
1864​
172​
0.91552063​
5.51​
8.4​
0.13​
Craig Anderson
34​
1458.75​
801​
735​
66​
0.917603​
2.71​
2.62​
0.11​
Anders Nilsson
20​
854.8​
472​
432​
40​
0.91525424​
2.81​
0.43​
0.03​
Joey Daccord
8​
327.616667​
173​
158​
15​
0.9132948​
2.75​
-0.18​
-0.03​
Cam Talbot
36​
1530.55​
699​
631​
68​
0.90271817​
2.67​
-2.12​
-0.08​
Matt Murray
47​
2046.61667​
1076​
977​
99​
0.90799257​
2.9​
-6.82​
-0.2​
Marcus Hogberg
38​
1615.78333​
842​
763​
79​
0.90617577​
2.93​
-6.87​
-0.26​
Mads Sogaard
21​
867.133333​
421​
376​
45​
0.89311164​
5.2​
-5.64​
-0.39​
TOTAL
338​
14517.8167​
7653​
6978​
675​
0.91179929​
43.28​
0​
0​

Sorry, I had added an extra year so the numbers were slightly different. We're actually 25th over DJ's coaching tenure, not 28th.

Thanks for making my point for me though, sort of. I don't think our goalies actually perform worse here. They get worse traditional stats because of the shit show playing out in front of them.
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,454
10,640
Yukon
I find the whole thing an amusing reflection of Dorion's tenure.

Trades the young guy for the old journeyman, then the young guy is the best in the league immediately after, while the old guy can't stay healthy or play consistently and arguably is enough of a variable on his own to keep the team out of the playoffs.

Then the next year Dorion reacts to that and bails on the old dude who goes on to tear it up.

At least Korpisalo didn't turn in to a pumpkin. And maybe Gus will just be a one good year followed by a big drop off for a year tender like Andy.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
16,131
9,702
Just about any goalie in the league can have stretches where they play really well, what differs the elite from the journeyman is how long they can keep it up for.

I think Talbot was better than given credit for last year, but I also wouldn't bet on him keeping up at his current pace.
Well, if I counted correctly, Talbot's save percentage is 23rd all time using a 400 games played cutoff so I think it's fair to say he's got a demonstrated ability to play well over a long time.
 

frightenedinmatenum2

Registered User
Sep 30, 2023
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Orange County Prison
Gustavsson may have cleared waivers during training camp. If not for the budget, they probably could have kept him and sent something else to Minnesota for Talbot. Given how we were likely the only destination for Talbot, I doubt Gustavsson held a lot of value to them. He was likely a throw in that saved them from having to find a Hellberg or PTO type to be their backup.

He was on a 1-way deal, they were still a budget team. They weren't really in a position to gamble on him as their starter as they were trying to polish up the team for a sale, and they needed to make progress with winning games. Of course, that didn't happen, and Talbot was bad. The trade at least made sense in execution.

Minnesota has been bad, and both goalies have abysmal stats. I would not write off Gustavsson based on this bad start. It seems like more of a team-related issue.

On the topic of the Brassard trade, Gustavsson was a pretty big piece. We're talking about a goalie who was selected in the second of the draft who saw his value go up. The only reason he was available was probably because at the time Pittsburgh were stacked in net with Murray, Jarry, and DeSmith. While the pieces from the Brassard trade did not pan out for the Senators, it was a very strong return to get both Gustavsson and a 1st.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
53,976
31,184
Well, if I counted correctly, Talbot's save percentage is 23rd all time using a 400 games played cutoff so I think it's fair to say he's got a demonstrated ability to play well over a long time.
Where does his current clip rank in that same list? I'm not saying he can't be a good goalie, I'm saying him being a top goalie in the league like he's currently pacing at isn't likely to continue, I mean, there are only 14 active goalies with 400+ games, he ranks 7th, so right around the middle,

The highest he's ever finished in sv% among goalies who played 50% of games in a season was 10th, by no means bad, but not top of the league good. A little above average starter in his good years. He was very promising as a backup in NY though
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
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Gustavsson may have cleared waivers during training camp. If not for the budget, they probably could have kept him and sent something else to Minnesota for Talbot. Given how we were likely the only destination for Talbot, I doubt Gustavsson held a lot of value to them. He was likely a throw in that saved them from having to find a Hellberg or PTO type to be their backup.

He was on a 1-way deal, they were still a budget team. They weren't really in a position to gamble on him as their starter as they were trying to polish up the team for a sale, and they needed to make progress with winning games. Of course, that didn't happen, and Talbot was bad. The trade at least made sense in execution.

Minnesota has been bad, and both goalies have abysmal stats. I would not write off Gustavsson based on this bad start. It seems like more of a team-related issue.

On the topic of the Brassard trade, Gustavsson was a pretty big piece. We're talking about a goalie who was selected in the second of the draft who saw his value go up. The only reason he was available was probably because at the time Pittsburgh were stacked in net with Murray, Jarry, and DeSmith. While the pieces from the Brassard trade did not pan out for the Senators, it was a very strong return to get both Gustavsson and a 1st.
Gustavsson was way higher regarded than this. His talent and pedigree aren't something that is simply ignored. His body of work was easy to breakdown. He was really good for 2 years, he played in front of one of the worst NHL rosters assembled in a long time in Ottawa they were an AHL team playing in the NHL. He is an elite technical goalie one of the best in the world.
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
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Victoria
Gus wasn’t that highly regarded, he was the secondary piece we was acquired with a 1st round pick from Pitts for a near washed Brass.

They let him go easy in favour of Jarry.

He was inconsistent for us as well, and we traded for a vet goalie who was known for his consistent, if less than spectacular, play with is what we needed.

Gus had a great year last year and is now struggling. Thats someone else’s issue at this point. We needed consistency in net and still do, which is why we went with Korpi and Forsy.

There is no need to pine for Gus any more than D’Accord. They were young tenders that we let go in favour of the other prospects we have for the future, and some more consistent vet talent for now.
 

frightenedinmatenum2

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Sep 30, 2023
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Gustavsson was way higher regarded than this. His talent and pedigree aren't something that is simply ignored. His body of work was easy to breakdown. He was really good for 2 years, he played in front of one of the worst NHL rosters assembled in a long time in Ottawa they were an AHL team playing in the NHL. He is an elite technical goalie one of the best in the world.

I find it hard to believe that the Senators did not shop him that off season. They very clearly weren't going with him.

If what you are saying was accurate last off season, someone would have made them an offer that would have seen him gone before the Talbot stuff went down.
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
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I find it hard to believe that the Senators did not shop him that off season. They very clearly weren't going with him.

If what you are saying was accurate last off season, someone would have made them an offer that would have seen him gone before the Talbot stuff went down.
Yup, he was in the same boat as a ton of young goalies who have been up and down to start their careers. Apparently there were issue with his fitness level or dedication I believe, which I think scares teams doubly so for goalies given how important the position is.

He had a great long term up last season though so that’s good for him going forward hopefully.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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9,702
I think the Gus thing needs to go. It's come full circle. Yes he's posted some good numbers. He's also posted some bad numbers. He's looked great and terrible for us and for Minnesota. And ya he had great pedigree, but Pittsburgh attached a 1st to him to get Brassard so that's really two organizations that gave up on him.

Good one year. Bad the next. It's like the Anderson MO all over again. But Anderson's bad years were low end end starter and his good years were high end starter
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,891
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Well, if I counted correctly, Talbot's save percentage is 23rd all time using a 400 games played cutoff so I think it's fair to say he's got a demonstrated ability to play well over a long time.
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