Dreger: Ferland's Market includes the Canucks

[davinhimself]

Next season will be Ferland's Age 28 year. Powerforwards have early expiry date. I cannot see him being productive after 4 or 5 years. But some insane GM will no doubt offer the 7 years.

Someone's going to throw 7x7 at Ferland out of desperation.

I don't think power forwards have an early expiration. Most of the best (Tkachuk, Iginla, Thorton, Leclair, etc) stayed very productive until nearly 40. The ones that come to mind who declined/retired early are Neely/Lindros, but really that was injury, not decline in abilities/production. If anything, it seems power forwards bloom later (Bertuzzi, Benn) and have longer /later peaks, in my opinion.

 

[Pestilence]

Could be Blake Wheeler V2 also. Thrashers/Jets don’t regret locking him in.

I don't think Blake Wheeler is a good comparable for Michael Ferland.

 

[vanarchy]

Canucks don’t have the assets to trade. Make a pitch in free agency although the price will likely be high.

I don't want Jim to attempt either one. I would much rather go after Stone this summer.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

I don't think power forwards have an early expiration. Most of the best (Tkachuk, Iginla, Thorton, Leclair, etc) stayed very productive until nearly 40. The ones that come to mind who declined/retired early are Neely/Lindros, but really that was injury, not decline in abilities/production. If anything, it seems power forwards bloom later (Bertuzzi, Benn) and have longer /later peaks, in my opinion.

Lucic?

 

[davinhimself]

Lucic?

Nash also. It happens, I've just always thought of power forwards as having later peaks/primes.

 

[JuniorNelson]

I think posters trying to decipher Benning are missing Green's input.

Canucks might be in playoff contention at the deadline. Green will want a run. If Benning can add pieces Green wants, I think they will pay.

Canucks may view Ferland as a rental? They might not need him next season if Virtanen continues to develop.

 

[BruinsBtn]

This isn't such a bad statement. If you look at the history of UFA signings, most of the best ones were guys who were picked up the year before at the trade deadline. It's worth giving something up to see how the player works with your team before committing to term and dollars.

 

[GoldiFox]

I don't think Blake Wheeler is a good comparable for Michael Ferland.

I don't think Clarkson is a good comparable either. Clarkson was an established bottom-6er who had a career year and got overpaid. Ferland is a bit of an odd case given his background. What is for certain is that Ferland has been better every single year in the NHL so far and he will become a UFA with only ~325 NHL games played (not much tread for a UFA).

Take a look at Ferland's NHL trajectory so far:

	Goals/82	Points/82
2014-15	6.3	15.8
2015-16	4.6	20.8
2016-17	16.2	27.0
2017-18	22.4	43.7
2018-19	26.0	50.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Significant increases in production of goals and points every year. He's been great for the Canes this year when healthy. He is a wrecking ball on the ice, protects Aho well and is constantly drawing attention by chirping and harassing opponents. He's gotten even meaner as the season has gone on.

 

[snopro31]

Trade to the Jets for Perrault and a 2nd. Sign him to 5x3mill.

Be closer to home for both him and his wife plus have a chance at a cup.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I don't think Blake Wheeler is a good comparable for Michael Ferland.

You beat me to it. I really don’t get all this excitement for Ferland? No way would I want Rutherford to give a 1st and a prospect for a rental of his quality. I don’t even like doing it for real difference makers like we did for Hossa or if someone trades for Panarin as a rental. I rather use those assets for someone with term.

Frankly I don’t think he is anything more than Pearson who we got for Hagelin who is a UFA after this season. Pearson coming into this season had 24 goals and 44 points and 15 goals and 40 points the past 2 years and is only 26. Ferland 15 goals and 25 points and 21 goals and 41 points and is also 26. Coming into this season I bet most people considered them pretty equal. Now people are talking he is going to cost $5-6 million Cap hit to sign. If that is the case I wouldn’t want any part of that.

His output is dececent but he most likely is just a low 20 goal scorer low 40 point guy which is ok but nothing to give up a 1st and a prospect as a rental. Maybe if he was signed like Pearson for 3 years at $3.75 million cap hit then a 1st and a prospect would be fair value. Buyer beware, I am not worried about Rutherford doing this because I know he won’t.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I don't think Clarkson is a good comparable either. Clarkson was an established bottom-6er who had a career year and got overpaid. Ferland is a bit of an odd case given his background. What is for certain is that Ferland has been better every single year in the NHL so far and he will become a UFA with only ~325 NHL games played (not much tread for a UFA).

Take a look at Ferland's NHL trajectory so far:

	Goals/82	Points/82
2014-15	6.3	15.8
2015-16	4.6	20.8
2016-17	16.2	27.0
2017-18	22.4	43.7
2018-19	26.0	50.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Significant increases in production of goals and points every year. He's been great for the Canes this year when healthy. He is a wrecking ball on the ice, protects Aho well and is constantly drawing attention by chirping and harassing opponents. He's gotten even meaner as the season has gone on.

What are you taking about significant increases each season? Last year was his first decent season with 21 goals and 41 points which is low end 2nd line material. The year before he produced only 25 points which would not even be acceptable on the Pens 3rd line. So let’s not act like he has this great track record. Even this year Ferland only has 16 points when you take out his PP points which he would not get much of that on the Pens. Ferland is an okay piece but not the kind of rental worth the cost talked about.

 

[GoldiFox]

You beat me to it. I really don’t get all this excitement for Ferland? No way would I want Rutherford to give a 1st and a prospect for a rental of his quality. I don’t even like doing it for real difference makers like we did for Hossa or if someone trades for Panarin as a rental. I rather use those assets for someone with term.

Frankly I don’t think he is anything more than Pearson who we got for Hagelin who is a UFA after this season. Pearson coming into this season had 24 goals and 44 points and 15 goals and 40 points the past 2 years and is only 26. Ferland 15 goals and 25 points and 21 goals and 41 points and is also 26. Coming into this season I bet most people considered them pretty equal. Now people are talking he is going to cost $5-6 million Cap hit to sign. If that is the case I wouldn’t want any part of that.

His output is dececent but he most likely is just a low 20 goal scorer low 40 point guy which is ok but nothing to give up a 1st and a prospect as a rental. Maybe if he was signed like Pearson for 3 years at $3.75 million cap hit then a 1st and a prospect would be fair value. Buyer beware, I am not worried about Rutherford doing this because I know he won’t.

Judging by this post you have never actually seen Ferland play. Tanner Pearson? Seriously? Ferland is scoring at a 25G/50P pace currently on a top line and your closest value comparable is a guy who had 1 point in 17 games at the time of his trade? They are very different players.

What are you taking about significant increases each season? Last year was his first decent season with 21 goals and 41 points which is low end 2nd line material. The year before he produced only 25 points which would not even be acceptable on the Pens 3rd line. So let’s not act like he has this great track record. Even this year Ferland only has 16 points when you take out his PP points which he would not get much of that on the Pens. Ferland is an okay piece but not the kind of rental worth the cost talked about.

Let me explain, an increase is when a number goes up. Hockey players do something that we call "develop" as they play in the NHL. As players "develop" they often get better at ice hockey and their production rates of goals/points will increase.

Goals Pace: 5 goals --> 16 goals --> 22 goals --> 26 goals - notice how that number keeps getting bigger?
Points Pace: 21 points --> 27 points --> 44 points --> 50 points - hey the points are doing it too!

When a player's numbers keep going up and the best year of his career is the current year of his career, many GMs think "maybe that guy has even more to give". Hence the demand and player value increase.

 

[Love]

Goldobin for Ferland obviously

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Judging by this post you have never actually seen Ferland play. Tanner Pearson? Seriously? Ferland is scoring at a 25G/50P pace currently on a top line and your closest value comparable is a guy who had 1 point in 17 games at the time of his trade? They are very different players.



Let me explain, an increase is when a number goes up. Hockey players do something that we call "develop" as they play in the NHL. As players "develop" they often get better at ice hockey and their production rates of goals/points will increase.

Goals Pace: 5 --> 16 --> 22 --> 26 - notice how that number keeps getting bigger?
Points Pace: 21 --> 27 --> 44 --> 50 - hey the points are doing it too!

When a player's numbers keep going up and the best year of his career is the current year of his career, many GMs think "hey, maybe that guy has even more to give!"

I stopped reading when you said scoring at a 25 goal 50 point pace. Do you know how many players have done that for 40 games and then finished with a much lower pace? Do you know how many players have had career years and then sign for big bucks only to revert back to lower production. Do you think playing on the 1st line helps your case? Give any half decent winger 1st line duty and PP time and they will have a bump in production. Heck Pascal Dupuis had 25 goals and 59 points playing 1st line duty and only 1 point was PP. Did that make him worth a 1st and prospect if he was a rental that season? Heck, Ferland only has 16 points not on PP and 9 PP points. Nothing special and he doesn’t get that top line or PP time on a contender.

Ferland is 26 and his best season to date is 21 goals and 41 points. Anyone that wants to judge such a small sample size as 41 games and say he is a 50 point player worthy of $5-6 million a year is taking some risks. Like I said Pearson had more years of success. They are not the exact type of players but similar point ability and I don’t think a player like that is worth a 1st plus prospect as a rental. If that is the Muzzin asking price and he still has another year on his deal and is the better player at a more important position then how is Ferland worth the same as a rental?

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

Assuming our 1st is not being moved for 2019, What would Carolina want? I don't know that I'd want to offer a protected 1st next year, but would that be something of interest from the Canes?

 

[tmurfin]

Here are the two tweets that I am referencing as being back and not head that is the issue:



and then this:

That top tweet is funny considering the serious jawing they were doing last night

I know I said in the last thread Ferland would not fetch a 1st, but, if he can stay healthy, and keeps playing how he did last night (until he left), combined with the hype he’s getting from the media, he could definitely fetch a 1st+. And he’s gonna get paaaaaaid this summer, good for him.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Goldobin for Ferland obviously

Obviously not.

He has enough warts in his game to make Vancouver not want him to be a part of their rebuild so why would he hold a lot of value to other teams in a similar position?

 

[BWJM]

Virtanen and Ferland on a line could be tough to play against... if Virt can figure it out.. but maybe playing with a guy like Ferland could help that.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I don't think power forwards have an early expiration. Most of the best (Tkachuk, Iginla, Thorton, Leclair, etc) stayed very productive until nearly 40. The ones that come to mind who declined/retired early are Neely/Lindros, but really that was injury, not decline in abilities/production. If anything, it seems power forwards bloom later (Bertuzzi, Benn) and have longer /later peaks, in my opinion.

You’re talking about superstar level power forwards. Ferland is a 2nd line power forward. Those types do tend to decline pretty young.

On top of that, when were those guys’ best seasons? Thornton’s art ross was when he was 26 IIRC and I believe Iginla’s was around the same age. Those guys declined from “undisputed top-5 player in the NHL” to “still elite first liner” and kept up the latter level of play into their mid-30s like most superstars do. That doesn’t mean they didn’t go through a decline.

 

[Chan790]

Goldobin for Ferland obviously

Goldobin is the kind of player HCRBA doesn't like. He'd get press-boxed for "not playing the right way" and stay there until traded, bought-out, or his contract expired.

So...Goldobin is probably a "don't acquire" piece of zero interest to the Canes.