The thing is, everyone has been saying that for a long time. We're always "improvement up front" away. And every year we hope that Poile addresses this and it doesn't happen. Rinse and repeat.
Fault: Trotz or Poile
- Thread starter Jarnberg
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The thing is, everyone has been saying that for a long time. We're always "improvement up front" away. And every year we hope that Poile addresses this and it doesn't happen. Rinse and repeat.
this is a meme that is simply not true. Our forward corps has been cyclical, but effective.
Arnott/Kariya/Sullivan/Dumont(playoff team, and for two years were top 4 in West) gave way to Erat/Fisher/Kostitsyn/Legwand,(playoff team, and for at least one year was top 4 in the West)
we are transitioning to the next forward group, that when combined with our D and goaltending, will become a playoff team again. the question is whether that group will be Smith/Wilson plus a couple more or if Wilson and Smith arent going to cut it and we need three or four new forwards. It also remains to be seen how quickly Forsberg can join that group, if at all, and whether Jarnkrok is top 6 material and how long it will take him to get there.
glenngineer
Registered User
Effective at what, getting bounced from the playoffs year after year? If that's the case I agree with you. Once again, our forwards have not been good enough to compete at the highest levels with the best teams in the league. We won games in the regular season but we don't have the horses up front to compete when it comes playoff time.
you have to make the playoffs before you can win a couple of rounds.
as always, this argument devolves into whether trotz cant get the most out of the players we have or Poile isnt getting him the players we need to compete or both.
I say of we change coach and/or GM right now we will be significantly worse before we get any better. And of course we cant know which of us is right until the next couple of years unfold
Save for 2006-2007, we've still needed to upgrade our forwards. That second crew you listed wasn't good enough offensively. See Vancouver and Phoenix series.
We've really only had good enough weapons one year in our existence, when we went all in. Other than that, we've needed to upgrade our offense. And Poile fails to deliver. So when I read, "all we need is some better forwards", I think stop me if you think you heard this one before.
glenngineer
Registered User
The way the roster has been constructed has been to make it to the playoffs and see what happens from there. That's like saying, I'm flying to Vegas with $1000 and I'll see what happens when I get there. Your odds aren't very good. You have to build a team that is made for the playoffs and if it's good for the playoffs, your regular season should put you in the playoffs. You think free agents go to teams because the roster is built to just make the playoffs? No, they go to teams because they feel the team is ready to win in the playoffs. That is our biggest problem, we think making the playoffs is a victory when it should be about what we attain in the playoffs.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, until we draft and develop game changers up front, nothing will change with this franchise. We can't roll a top 9 hoping they will produce what a true top 6 will produce. You have to have guys that can take over a game. Watch Hossa play some time. The guy is a beast on both sides of the puck. You watch Toews and Kane as well, they take it up a few notches. Sharp is no slouch either. Couple that with a really good defense, solid goaltending and a good roster around the top players and you have a recipe for success. We can't expect to go far with guys like Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan, Kariya, Legwand, Erat, Hornqvist. They are good top 6 players but only Kariya in his prime was close to what the Hossa's, Kane's and Toews's bring to a lineup.
After 15 years of trying to figure out how to build this team, Trotz and Poile should know better and they haven't gotten it done. It's as simple as that. Making the playoffs if one level of success but a level that any team or fan base should settle for.
And in answer to your question, teams that made changes behind the bench recently without massive roster makeover would be the Jets, Blues, Hawks, Kings and Flyers. Hawks and Kings have won three Cups. The Jets are now moving in the right direction under Maurice. The Flyers are doing better with Holmgren and the Blues are in contention for a Cup with Hitchcock. It doesn't always work but sometimes it does. I just know what we've been doing hasn't worked other than making the playoffs.
Apparently making a coach or GM change will lead us to the bottom part of the league. Where are we right now? Oh that's right, we didn't have Rinne. The team has done really well in front of him since he got back.
deanwormer
Registered User
I don't think you can argue "15 years" compared to anything other than other expansion franchises; until things are in place with scouting and development, etc., it's really hard to judge what anyone - coach, gm, whoever - has done.
If you look at the last 10 years, we got better, built a team, made the POs a couple times, then dismantled it. Rebuilt it, made the POs, won a couple first-rounds, then it imploded. Not sure you can hang the dismantling on Trotz or Poile.
So, I think it's disingenuous to say they haven't shown they can build a franchise, get improvement, etc. That said, I think you can hold them both accountable for the implosion after the mess in Phoenix. Poile made the decision on the "rentals", Trotz decided how to handle the curfew violations. Poile decided on subsequent contracts, how to handle the Suter-situation prior; Trotz had the room following.
While I understand why and how the Suter thing spun out on him, it's still Poile's responsibility. Handling Weber - same thing; even if it's all good between Shea and the club, the PR is Poile's responsibility, too; gotta' control the spin. We know that last offseason Poile's choices have backfired except Nystrom; while he's done some decent damage control on it, doesn't change how bad it is. Clearly learned from Hammer and Sutes - got something for Leggy, although given we were pretty much a lock not to make the POs makes it easier.
Trotz - I feel better toward him. I wouldn't have held those guys out of the 2nd Phoenix game and his line-shuffling can be frustrating, but I think he's done a remarkable job over the years molding the talent given to him into competitive teams. Would I like to have seen this Smith sooner? Yep - but I'm not sure it took so long just cause Trotz insisted he be responsible. Would I have like Willy in the middle sooner? Sure, but Poile signed guys that were Cs, not Wings, so Willy on wing made sense most of the time, regardless of what "system" the coach wanted to employ.
In the end, if I'm making a change, it's Poile. Not sure I feel it's because he "deserves" it, but because someone is accountable following the implosion, and I think over the last couple years - while he's certainly made some nice gets for Erat and Leggy, and there really wasn't a thing he could do about getting Seth instead of an F - I think he's the guy who's "results" are less than reasonably expected, not necessarily Trotz'.
If you look at the last 10 years, we got better, built a team, made the POs a couple times, then dismantled it. Rebuilt it, made the POs, won a couple first-rounds, then it imploded. Not sure you can hang the dismantling on Trotz or Poile.
So, I think it's disingenuous to say they haven't shown they can build a franchise, get improvement, etc. That said, I think you can hold them both accountable for the implosion after the mess in Phoenix. Poile made the decision on the "rentals", Trotz decided how to handle the curfew violations. Poile decided on subsequent contracts, how to handle the Suter-situation prior; Trotz had the room following.
While I understand why and how the Suter thing spun out on him, it's still Poile's responsibility. Handling Weber - same thing; even if it's all good between Shea and the club, the PR is Poile's responsibility, too; gotta' control the spin. We know that last offseason Poile's choices have backfired except Nystrom; while he's done some decent damage control on it, doesn't change how bad it is. Clearly learned from Hammer and Sutes - got something for Leggy, although given we were pretty much a lock not to make the POs makes it easier.
Trotz - I feel better toward him. I wouldn't have held those guys out of the 2nd Phoenix game and his line-shuffling can be frustrating, but I think he's done a remarkable job over the years molding the talent given to him into competitive teams. Would I like to have seen this Smith sooner? Yep - but I'm not sure it took so long just cause Trotz insisted he be responsible. Would I have like Willy in the middle sooner? Sure, but Poile signed guys that were Cs, not Wings, so Willy on wing made sense most of the time, regardless of what "system" the coach wanted to employ.
In the end, if I'm making a change, it's Poile. Not sure I feel it's because he "deserves" it, but because someone is accountable following the implosion, and I think over the last couple years - while he's certainly made some nice gets for Erat and Leggy, and there really wasn't a thing he could do about getting Seth instead of an F - I think he's the guy who's "results" are less than reasonably expected, not necessarily Trotz'.
101st_fan
I taught Yoda
We have a nearly bipolar fanbase. One one hand we have rants that the team was on the cusp just two seasons ago and failed miserably (if only management didn't punish rule breakers) ... yet simultaneously have claims that Poile can't build a team and Trotz can't coach at all. We have fans that rant that we haven't gone from expansion team to champion in 15 years in the modern 30 team league while all of Canada has gone withouta Cup for two decades, the Hawks went 49 years without, and the Rangers have only one Cup since the attack on Pearl Harbor ... the lack of perspective is at times laughable. We have threads every trade deadline and free agency period clamoring for those mythical consistent 30 and 40 goal scorers while never acknowledging how rare those are.
We need an upgrade up front ... but let's be honest about what we need and what exists on the market. Consistent 40 goal scorers are great if you stumble upon them ... realistically we need a consistent 25 goal scorer or two ... finishers ... the "pretty darn good" players Glenn described, not truly elites. The blueline could use another physical presence. We need a backup that can take more of the load than Hutton was projected to take this season ... a guy who can truly replace Pekka long term is a pipe dream.
How many of those exist in the pipeline and what needs to come via draft, trade, or FA signing remains to be seen.
Stalberg is a cautionary tale here. Look at where he was on the summer FA listings then compare that hype to delivered results since signing. He is woefully underperforming. Every draft class has numerous examples of similar players who just don't deliver as expected, much less as hoped.
In the end, hockey is a form of entertainment for almost all of us. It's a distraction from real lives.
We need an upgrade up front ... but let's be honest about what we need and what exists on the market. Consistent 40 goal scorers are great if you stumble upon them ... realistically we need a consistent 25 goal scorer or two ... finishers ... the "pretty darn good" players Glenn described, not truly elites. The blueline could use another physical presence. We need a backup that can take more of the load than Hutton was projected to take this season ... a guy who can truly replace Pekka long term is a pipe dream.
How many of those exist in the pipeline and what needs to come via draft, trade, or FA signing remains to be seen.
Stalberg is a cautionary tale here. Look at where he was on the summer FA listings then compare that hype to delivered results since signing. He is woefully underperforming. Every draft class has numerous examples of similar players who just don't deliver as expected, much less as hoped.
In the end, hockey is a form of entertainment for almost all of us. It's a distraction from real lives.
Poile the root of the problem, no question in my mind. We can try a different coach, but no coach will turn this roster into a contender. NO COACH. The talent is not there.
I actually think if we stand pat for the most part, Trotz will have this team back to the playoffs next year (assuming healthy Rinne, Weber, Josi). Trotz habitually gets more out of less when it comes to our roster (between him and Dave Tippett). In terms of our "year of destiny" 2012, our first line consisted of SK-Fisher-Erat... an absolute joke compared to the true contenders.
trotz has turned bottom 5 talent rosters into playoff teams many years, but just getting into the playoffs puts us back to mediocre territory.
Poile is clueless on how to get a team to the elite level. He can't do it.
I actually think if we stand pat for the most part, Trotz will have this team back to the playoffs next year (assuming healthy Rinne, Weber, Josi). Trotz habitually gets more out of less when it comes to our roster (between him and Dave Tippett). In terms of our "year of destiny" 2012, our first line consisted of SK-Fisher-Erat... an absolute joke compared to the true contenders.
trotz has turned bottom 5 talent rosters into playoff teams many years, but just getting into the playoffs puts us back to mediocre territory.
Poile is clueless on how to get a team to the elite level. He can't do it.
I'm still not a fan of either. Bipolar can't argue with that much either.
I think Poile has potentially replaced his off season mistakes and he did turn Erat and Legwand into 2 highly rated offensive prospects but at this point they are just prospects.
Trotz system is still too restrictive for me, I'd like to see less dump and chase and more creativity. I do like our down low cycle game though, I just wish it came with more net presence.
I also think we lack a killer instinct. Is that the coaches fault, I don't know. I get tired of us taking down names though.
I think Poile has potentially replaced his off season mistakes and he did turn Erat and Legwand into 2 highly rated offensive prospects but at this point they are just prospects.
Trotz system is still too restrictive for me, I'd like to see less dump and chase and more creativity. I do like our down low cycle game though, I just wish it came with more net presence.
I also think we lack a killer instinct. Is that the coaches fault, I don't know. I get tired of us taking down names though.
Its not just Stalberg. Briere, Horton, and the player a lot of us (including me) thought we should have claimed on waivers, Grabovski have all substantially underperformed. I havent tracked the other UFA forwards from the summer but these were the ones we all talked about quite a bit.
Byrddog
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Exactly Poor Columbus has Horton on a 5.3 mil cap hit thru 2020 the good news is most of it will be paid by insurance due to him being on the IR. And if you look at Hortons lifetime 32,282,400 its even more sickening. Im glad the Preds are not on the hook for that.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
Paranoid Android
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Grabovski has not underperformed. His production is right in line with his best years in Toronto.
Horton I'm willing to give a free pass this year since he's still recovering from major shoulder surgery. Columbus knew that going in. Up to this point though, yeah disappointing.
Agree with the overall point though: building your team through UFA rarely works out. Drafting and trades are the better routes. Plenty of UFA signings work out for the good however, it's just more risky.
Bringer of Jollity
Registered User
I'm going to assume that no one is going to like the idea of giving Poile and Trotz lifetime contracts regardless of results.
15 years, and IMHO, no real success other than piling up a couple of nice regular season point totals (yet, not even a division title).
At what point do we give someone else a shot?
It's like some folks are so convinced that there's just no possible way anyone anywhere ever could do a better job.
Yeah, I guess we might hire a dud and we'll be finishing somewhere in the bottom 5 teams in the NHL............
15 years, and IMHO, no real success other than piling up a couple of nice regular season point totals (yet, not even a division title).
At what point do we give someone else a shot?
It's like some folks are so convinced that there's just no possible way anyone anywhere ever could do a better job.
Yeah, I guess we might hire a dud and we'll be finishing somewhere in the bottom 5 teams in the NHL............
Grabovski scored 29 and 23 goals in Toronto in the past... he currently has 12 this year... Id call that underperforming
we give someone else a shot at coaching when the coach isnt getting what he should out of the players he has... Im thinking Trotz is getting as much as he can get out of this group.
you give another GM a shot when the vision he has for building a team isnt getting you the results it should. IMO with the defense and goaltending now set, we are better off giving Poile another summer to try to make progress. If we get back in the playoffs next season then we go another year. Last year was a write off, bith from the lockout and injuries. This year was transition year one, a marginal playoff team before Rinne went down. If next year we are a playoff team, and the year after that we are challenging Chicago and St Louis, then it will be going as planned. If we are not a playoff team next year, or if we squeak in and then the following year we fall back out, it will be time for a new perspective.
I know that is not ging to suit those of you going nuts for change NOW! RIGHT NOW! but thats how I see it. And that is by no means "settling for mediocrity".. that is being realistic about where we are now and the best path to where we want to be.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Concur, although I approach it from a different direction, being a Buckeye football and Blue Jackets fan.
To be fair, it's possible to do so within two or three years if your new GM is really capable AND really lucky. In our case, Howson was capable, but not lucky - it is very possible to get "the right guy" and still miss.
This is pretty much where I am as well, although if Poile has another mediocre offseason that'll put me on guard.
* * *
Can't really reasonably respond point-by-point, since most of it is leaning on "101 made a bad assertion; all I did was refute it". I'm not disputing that, but there is a wider narrative going on here that I'm attempting to address.
I guess what it ultimately comes down to is that you seem to have two beliefs here:
1) this downslide is going to continue regardless, and
2) a changing of the guard will help with offense drafting and development.
I am not at all convinced of #1; I think it's appeared that way because Poile did badly this offseason, but that doesn't make it a perpetual thing. As for #2, I think that's potentially too extreme of a move, that Poile has managed to do that sort of thing before (it hasn't worked out in Nashville yet, though, admittedly), and that unless he's significantly regressing in performance (which he might be - this past offseason was a big fat warning bell) tossing him out in the hopes that we get someone much like him but better with forwards and smart enough to recognize the situation (a HUGE "if") is doing too much for too little potential return.
* * *
Enh, he's doing okay so far (recall that we're comparing and contrasting his work with that of Marian Gaborik
). What helps in that case is the number of guys we have who are doing well while he isn't. It's like how a slump by Dumont could be ignored so long as Erat, Arnott, and Sully were still scoring. If you count on FA guys like that to save your scoring by themselves, tho, you tend to end up doomed unless you get lots of them at really good deals.
Paranoid Android
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Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but I think you are wrong and won't find many people who agree with you. Looking at goal total only is pretty short sighted. He's been great at even strength and has made his team mates around him better. He's having a career year in assists. A Capitals beat writer gave him an "A" rating during his mid-season report card and said "It is safe to say that Grabovski has met -- and perhaps even exceeded -- the expectations placed on him upon his arrival."
Fair enough, I admit I was looking at it from our greatest need, which was goal scoring, as well as the 5.5 mil salary that we would have paid him had we claimed him off waivers
Paranoid Android
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I wouldn't have claimed him off waivers either. Too much risk. Would have preferred him as a UFA. Though I can understand that we may have been soured by his fellow countrymen.
PFL615
Registered User
Oh goody do tell how the Preds are going to be challenging the Blues, Hawks and hell Minnesota and Colorado in two years under current coach, management, and philosophy?
We won't. We will get into the playoffs and get bounced in the first round or possibly in the second if we get lucky. And that will be considered success around here.
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