Fault: Trotz or Poile

[token grinder]

I don't care who is the GM as long as we upgrade the NHL talent on the ice. I still think that we need to keep Spaling and find a new home for Gaustad. That is upgrade 1. We need to upgrade Bourque, hopefully with Forsberg. That is upgrade 2. We need/have to sign/trade for a 60-70 point forward. I don't care what his name is or where he plays.

We need to find a way to score 246 (191 from our forwards) goals next year. 3 per game. Realistic expectations for me right now:

Smith-25
Hornquist-20
Wilson-15
Fisher-15
Cullen-12
Forsberg-10
new forward-20
Spaling-10
Stalberg-10

That is 137. So we need 54 goals off of where we need to be. I think it is a safe bet that 15 goals come out of whoever the 4th line is. Leaves 39 goals to find. The easy math says horn gets 25, smith hits 30 and wilson hits 20. That would bring it down to 24. Where do we get those goals. Growth? better FA? defence scores more?

weber-20
josi-10
jones-10
Ellis-8
MDZ-5
Ekholm-2
(55 from D)


Or am I looking at this too simplictically?

 

[Preds Partisan]

As Token points out above, the roster looks pretty much like every season's roster in that it lacks offense in the forward group. Poile counts on every player hitting their career averages and a few players to have breakout seasons. He got that breakout performance this season from Smith, but guys like Wilson and Stalberg haven't done anything close to what he was banking on. When his plan fails, which it does almost every year, the offense struggles with consistency, etc., etc. There is no Plan B.

Every GM "expects" a certain performance level (i.e. goal scoring) from their team to varying degrees of success each season, but Poile "hopes" to get this from his roster. We all knew this forward roster was crap, especially with the guys he brought in this summer, but Poile hoped it would work. As he does every season. There was no chance in hell the roster he put together was going to work, but that doesn't stop him from trying the same dumb thing over and over and over.

Worse, he gave Trotz what he wanted this year. Very stupid move. Trotz can't help but to try and send Preds hockey back to the stone age. Clune with 13 minutes last night? Clune with any minutes any night? Are you freaking kidding me?

G.M. Wishfulthinking and Coach Caveman soured on me during the PHO series and I look forward to the day that ownership no longer accepts mediocrity.

 

[101st_fan]

3 goals a game is top 4-7 in the league going back to 2009-10 ... a high bar to set. Realistically, 2.85 + is a good, achievable stepping stone that puts the team in the top ten compared to recent seasons. If the team can manage to boost its ES scoring while solidifying the defensive play of the past couple seasons ... that horrible 5on5 scoring ratio starts to even out (20th in the league last season, 27th currently this season).

 

[MrJoshua]

The defensive group is young, talented, and should be set for years pending re-signing MDZ (I believe he's an RFA at the end of this season). Goal is set for years.

The offense is just in a rebuild period. That means it's going to suck for a couple of years, of which this was the first. That's fine. It gives the young, talented defensive group time to grow and gel while we're trading for and/or drafting young, talented forwards like Forsberg and Jarnkrok. Those are a couple of high-end prospects there. Guys like that can help you build a top-10 offense ... and while that's not 3 goals per game, with the potential in this defensive group I don't think you're going to need to be much higher than top 10 in offense to be a real contender.

So, try to be patient. The offense is going to be a work in progress for another season or two while young prospects develop. Then they should be ready to come on the scene and contribute in a big way as the defense is peaking. Honestly, I look at this team and I see a group that's in the lull between windows of opportunity, and in a couple of years I think a new window will open that sees them become contenders for a long stretch of time while Weber is in his peak. Add another couple of top-end offensive prospects and watch this group climb up the standings in a couple of years when they're all ready to contribute.

 

[101st_fan]

No one has said they can't develop forwards, hence the use of Legwand, Erat and Hornqvist in discussions. What I have said is that they have the inability to draft and develop game changing forwards up front. That's the main difference.

"Game changing" is a nebulous term ... completely subjective ... and allows people to discount one player while embracing another when statistically similar. You've made it clear that you aren't referring to career ppg players and the earlier list you provided shows how absolutely nondescript your stated desire is. I'll use Smith as an example further down this post.

Why is having a player in the top 90 such an accomplishment?

They're NHL level forwards. Somebody, somewhere, will score enough to figure in the top 90 - just as a function of ice time. They're just not very good NHL level forwards.

And they're nowhere near good enough to get us deep in the playoffs.

It's fairly pathetic and rather telling that in order to get one of our forwards into the top 100 - you have to remove a large number of other teams defensemen.

Let's look at this as a function of ice time. Craig Smith ranks 35th in goals per 60 minutes of ice time (all situations) without a single defenseman ahead of him (min 16 games played to eliminate those one game wonders). He's ahead of JVR in goals, assists, and points per 60 minutes of TOI ... one of Glenn's "game changing" forwards. The difference is more pronounced if only ES time is factored. If anything, Smith's lack of ice time compared to his peers across the league is hurting his numbers.


The problem is how many of our other players simply are invisible this season. Wilson and Bourque are far from their pre-injury points paces (although Wilson's play is improving of late). Stalberg is well off his points pace from before the lockout (90th in pts/60 in 2011-12). Hornqvist has vanished as a goal scorer after averaging 26g a season from 2009-12 (including 30 and 27 goal seasons). Those severe falloffs counteract Smith's performance while guys like Nystrom and Gaustad provide secondary scoring (which becomes rather meaningless most games without primary scoring).

For all of the hype here about Shea Weber's scoring .... he's 67th in points per 60 minutes of ES time among defensemen (22nd among d-men in all situations ... amazing what all those PP points can do). Hmmm .. maybe looking at points as a factor of ice time isn't all that appealing on the backend.

 

[glenngineer]

Game changer is pretty easy actually. I'll even give you an example. We were playing Colorado at home. They were up 2-0. We score to make it 2-1. Who hops over the boards to take the next faceoff? Forsberg. I said to my friend watch as Forsberg scores. He was like, what? Forsberg takes the puck, goes behind the net with the puck, one hand on his stick, one arm shielding off the defender. He uses the net to pick off the defender. The next defender, as Forsberg is coming around the net, knocks him to the ice. Did Forsberg lose the puck? No. He's on his knees facing away from the net still controlling the puck on his back hand. He then proceeds to take the puck and buries it top shelf to give Colorado a 2 goal lead again. That's game changing. I don't think I could've explained it any more clearly than that.

 

[jwhouk]

Those kind of players, though, are like one in a million.

 

[glenngineer]

Those kind of players, though, are like one in a million.

It was an example of a game changer or a game changing play. How many guys in the league do this on a nightly basis? More than enough. Do we need to make a list?

I am so sick of the excuses or your answers are nebulous or he's a top 3 because he's in the top 90 in scoring or this or that. It's like the excuses the team makes on a continual basis. It's the excuses of injuries or Pekka being out or they were a higher seed or they were on a roll or whatever else we feel like coming up with. At the end of the day all we have is excuses.

Name me one freaking player that has played for this team in 15 years at the forward position that has been dominant for a season and has taken the team on his back to make plays or win games on his own or made others around him better on a nightly basis? It hasn't happened. Is the word dominant going to be too hard to understand for some? Elite? Would that do? Stud any better?

How about this, is there a guy that people have paid to see play the game for this team because they were that good? The biggest name in this town for years was Tootoo because of the checks he laid and the fights he got in to. That was the draw. No one ever said, hey, let's go to the Preds game tonight to go watch Legwand or Erat or Hornqvist or Fisher or Arnott or Dumont or Sullivan or Radulov or Hartnell. They were or still are good players but they are not main event status. They are not guys that you pay to see play the game.

I'm sure I've missed out on some other great cliche's or synonyms but I really don't care anymore. If you want to justify average or mediocrity, please feel free to go ahead and do just that. Some us expect more out of a pro franchise. Some of us want more than to just make it to the playoffs. Some of us want to spend money on an entertaining product on the ice.

BTW, JW, this wasn't directed at you for what it's worth, your post was just the straw that broke my back on this topic.

 

[token grinder]

It was an example of a game changer or a game changing play. How many guys in the league do this on a nightly basis? More than enough. Do we need to make a list?

I am so sick of the excuses or your answers are nebulous or he's a top 3 because he's in the top 90 in scoring or this or that. It's like the excuses the team makes on a continual basis. It's the excuses of injuries or Pekka being out or they were a higher seed or they were on a roll or whatever else we feel like coming up with. At the end of the day all we have is excuses.

Name me one freaking player that has played for this team in 15 years at the forward position that has been dominant for a season and has taken the team on his back to make plays or win games on his own or made others around him better on a nightly basis? It hasn't happened. Is the word dominant going to be too hard to understand for some? Elite? Would that do? Stud any better?

How about this, is there a guy that people have paid to see play the game for this team because they were that good? The biggest name in this town for years was Tootoo because of the checks he laid and the fights he got in to. That was the draw. No one ever said, hey, let's go to the Preds game tonight to go watch Legwand or Erat or Hornqvist or Fisher or Arnott or Dumont or Sullivan or Radulov or Hartnell. They were or still are good players but they are not main event status. They are not guys that you pay to see play the game.

I'm sure I've missed out on some other great cliche's or synonyms but I really don't care anymore. If you want to justify average or mediocrity, please feel free to go ahead and do just that. Some us expect more out of a pro franchise. Some of us want more than to just make it to the playoffs. Some of us want to spend money on an entertaining product on the ice.

BTW, JW, this wasn't directed at you for what it's worth, your post was just the straw that broke my back on this topic.

We have two home grown ones right now that I think this fanbase grossly underappreciates a lot of the time.

 

[glenngineer]

We have two home grown ones right now that I think this fanbase grossly underappreciates a lot of the time.

If you're talking about Wilson and Smith I get it. They are two of my favorites but they are not in the same league as the guys we need. Like I said in another thread, if Smith plays like he did last night for an entire season, the sky is the limit with him. Reminded me of Hossa. Wilson needs to put it together for a season as well which he hasn't. If there is someone else you're referring to let me know.

For a second I thought you were talking about yourself and Fish.

 

[Persona5]

Neither will or should be fired. I could see Poile retiring this offseason or next and the issue with his eye may excel that. I think Fenton will take over at that point and I'm really not sure how much that will change.

People need to keep in mind that we could be in a far worse situation than we are now. Change for the sake of change rarely works out for the better. If Suter hadn't left I think this team would be in the playoffs the last two season and you can't blame Poile for a guy lying to him and bolting. How mad would all of you have been if he traded Suter before the end of that season only to end up falling out of the playoff s or getting booted in the first round of the playoffs. I know I would have been upset.

Things need to turn around next season though or Trotz will be on the hot seat for sure. I really don't think he is at all this year. All it could take is Poile signing a player like Stastny and this team would be far better than it has been this season.

 

[token grinder]

If you're talking about Wilson and Smith I get it. They are two of my favorites but they are not in the same league as the guys we need. Like I said in another thread, if Smith plays like he did last night for an entire season, the sky is the limit with him. Reminded me of Hossa. Wilson needs to put it together for a season as well which he hasn't. If there is someone else you're referring to let me know.

For a second I thought you were talking about yourself and Fish.

Well, I was referring to the two of us, especially since our crowds of one or two sometimes don't even show up to watch us play.

I was referring to Weber and Rinne. Arguably the best dman in the world and one of the best goalie's in the world. Reminds me of a kid who has a new wii and and a PS4 but all he wants now is an xbox1.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Well, I was referring to the two of us, especially since our crowds of one or two sometimes don't even show up to watch us play.

I was referring to Weber and Rinne. Arguably the best dman in the world and one of the best goalie's in the world. Reminds me of a kid who has a new wii and and a PS4 but all he wants now is an xbox1.

I feel that, IF he can stay healthy, Josi will be put in that group within the next year or two. We'll see about Jones.

 

[token grinder]

I feel that, IF he can stay healthy, Josi will be put in that group within the next year or two. We'll see about Jones.

I would disagree about Josi. I think he could fall into that category of great defenseman, but he isn't a guy you get excited to watch play. He is a fancy passer and has a good shot, but he doesn't have the cannon. He doesn't throw the hits. He doesn't generate excitement when the POSSIBILITY of him doing something exists. Next time you are in the barn, watch a PP and listen when Josi has a chance at a one-timer and Weber does. You pay to see Weber launch bombs.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Did Suter fall in this category? Or was it the Weber/Suter combo?

 

[Viqsi]

It was an example of a game changer or a game changing play. How many guys in the league do this on a nightly basis? More than enough. Do we need to make a list?

I am so sick of the excuses or your answers are nebulous or he's a top 3 because he's in the top 90 in scoring or this or that. It's like the excuses the team makes on a continual basis. It's the excuses of injuries or Pekka being out or they were a higher seed or they were on a roll or whatever else we feel like coming up with. At the end of the day all we have is excuses.

Name me one freaking player that has played for this team in 15 years at the forward position that has been dominant for a season and has taken the team on his back to make plays or win games on his own or made others around him better on a nightly basis? It hasn't happened. Is the word dominant going to be too hard to understand for some? Elite? Would that do? Stud any better?

How about this, is there a guy that people have paid to see play the game for this team because they were that good? The biggest name in this town for years was Tootoo because of the checks he laid and the fights he got in to. That was the draw. No one ever said, hey, let's go to the Preds game tonight to go watch Legwand or Erat or Hornqvist or Fisher or Arnott or Dumont or Sullivan or Radulov or Hartnell. They were or still are good players but they are not main event status. They are not guys that you pay to see play the game.

I'm sure I've missed out on some other great cliche's or synonyms but I really don't care anymore. If you want to justify average or mediocrity, please feel free to go ahead and do just that. Some us expect more out of a pro franchise. Some of us want more than to just make it to the playoffs. Some of us want to spend money on an entertaining product on the ice.

BTW, JW, this wasn't directed at you for what it's worth, your post was just the straw that broke my back on this topic.

I'm sorry, I look at this and try to be sympathetic but all I can see, all I keep reading is "Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne isn't good enough, I insist on having Sidney Crosby too."

How many teams have those kind of elite players at all three positions? I can't think of a single one.

 

[MrJoshua]

Elite goaltending? Check.

Elite defense? One elite defender and a ton of talent in the rest of the defense, so I think this is currently about a half check with the rest of the check mark pending. We're a season or two away from a check mark here.

If your team has elite goaltending and elite defense, you don't need an elite offense. You just need a good enough offense. Smith and Wilson look to be forming some chemistry. If they can keep it up they'll be the nucleus of a solid line. Get Jarnkrok and Forsberg playing together in the minors the rest of the year, possibly next, and they should be ready to be 2/3 of another solid line. Hornqvist, Fisher, Spaling ... that's rounding out to be a pretty deep top nine. Not a flashy top-5 offense probably, but top 15 and maybe even top 10 in a couple of years.

Get this offense into the top 10 in 2-3 years while the defense is starting to peak and watch the team climb the standings into honest-to-God contention.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

I'm also pretty high on a lot of the offensive prospects down here. Forsberg, Salomaki, Jarnkrok, Beck, Watson, Sissons. The cabinet isn't empty. Just have a little patience, which I know is really tough, but the defensive core is all under 30, with 5 of them being under 25.

The only concerning part is Pekka will be 32 at the beginning of next season, so he has maybe 5 years left of high quality play.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

The only concerning part is Pekka will be 32 at the beginning of next season, so he has maybe 5 years left of high quality play.

Contracts aside, I'm getting excited at the possibility of Sarros becoming our next keeper in a few years.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I would say we are beyond the phase where we need to add players who draw crowds. The way the people in this area have taken to the Preds, even with a couple of down years and a lockout that effectively killed half of a season, our fan base seems to be solidifying as is. Right now the concern should be developing a three or four of the skilled, young forwards we have into legitimate and consistent top six guys. Not elite, though that would be nice, but guys who no one would argue are top six forwards. A game changer would be great. Expecting it is just asking for disappointment simply due to the odds. As was mentioned, not a lot of teams, if any, have a franchise top line forward along with a franchise defenseman (possibly two depending on how Jones turns out) AND a franchise goalie.

With Wilson and Smith coming along as well as Forsberg, Jarnkrok, Aberg, Leipsic coming up and even Sissons seemingly finding some scoring prowess in the minors we have a lot to look forward to. Toss in Hornqvist who is already an established player. Mr Joshua is right. Our top nine has a lot of potential to be pretty good. It may not have a game changer or elite forward or whatever adjective we want to use, but I for one like the direction we are headed in just a couple of years.

The question remains to be seen if the current coaching staff can run with it. I'm more and more skeptical, but I admit I have no ideas for a solution if they can't get it done.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I forgot about Beck. Toss him in the ring for potential top nine for years to come.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Well this is interesting.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/2...0031/Poile-could-bring-change-Predators-style

 

[dulzhok]

90% Poile

10% Trotz

 

[glenngineer]

I'm sorry, I look at this and try to be sympathetic but all I can see, all I keep reading is "Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne isn't good enough, I insist on having Sidney Crosby too."

How many teams have those kind of elite players at all three positions? I can't think of a single one.

Kings right off the top of my head.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Los Angeles is a lower scoring team than we are.

Kopitar is a great forward, but he isn't a game changer. Neither are Richards or Carter. What LA does have, though, is good balance up front with some guys who are legitimate top six players to complement a strong defensive core and an elite goaltender.

Exactly what we need to be trying to do rather than hoping we can get one elite forward.