Fantasy GM Thread | The One Where We Inch Closer to the TDL

[Vector]

Yeah, I remember you doing the work on this...just a quick look and I think we are pretty close in how we rated players...just a few points of difference.

- I had Noesen as an NHL'er, you had him as a bust.
- You had Rubstov as an NHL'er I had him as a bust
-I had Trent Fredrick, Max Jones and Brett Howden as NHL'ers.

Either way, I think its about 50-50 if they make it as NHL "regulars".

Rubstov is an error, should be a bust. Him moving down and Noesen moving up cancel each other out. The other would add about 1% to NHLer. It wouldn’t be a swing like you think, the sample size is too big.

You can reckon something all you want but the numbers don’t agree.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Rumours that NJ Devils are in the mix on Horvat. Wonder if a deal involving Luke Hughes could be made.

No chance

 

[Vector]

just at a glance you have a ton of players i'd consider impact players as 'nhlers' (shea theodore, kandre miller, brock nelson, phil danault, travis konecny, jared mccann...)

You can adjust them yourself and present alternators numbers. I don’t consider any of the guys you listed as in the upper echelon of NHL players, apart from probably Theodore.

 

[Canucker]

Rubstov is an error, should be a bust. Him moving down and Noesen moving up cancel each other out. The other would add about 1% to NHLer. It wouldn’t be a swing like you think, the sample size is too big.

You can reckon something all you want but the numbers don’t agree.

I don't really think my math is wrong, perhaps it is accoring to how players are rated....so I just think there is a disagreement on labelling players...some of the fringe players I consider NHL'ers...

Morgan Frost, Rasmus Kupari, Ilya Samsonov, Colin White, Ryan Poehling, Klim Kostin has taken a good role recently but might still be fringe? Are these great NHL'ers, no...are they "fringe"? Maybe? I still think its pretty close to 50-50 that a pick from 20-30 will net you an NHL player, be it fringe or impact.

 

[Vector]

I don't really think my math is wrong, perhaps it is accoring to how players are rated....so I just think there is a disagreement on labelling players...some of the fringe players I consider NHL'ers...

Morgan Frost, Rasmus Kupari, Ilya Samsonov, Colin White, Ryan Poehling, Klim Kostin has taken a good role recently but might still be fringe? Are these great NHL'ers, no...are they "fringe"? Maybe? I still think its pretty close to 50-50 that a pick from 20-30 will net you an NHL player, be it fringe or impact.

All of the guys you take issue with had either been moved from their original team or struggled to get regular playing time. He may look like NHLers now but, as an example, Kostin had 68 games in the NHL when I put this together. He may still end up a fringe player. I knew when I did this that some players would graduate from fringe to NHLer but others would go the other way. I almost removed 2018 for this reason but decided to keep it because it’s not going to affect the percentages all that much and an equal amount will move between the two categories.

 

[Horvat1C]

Demko for 2023 1st + Zaitsev

If Ottawa is serious about pushing for the Playoffs next year they might be open to it. They shed a bad contract as well.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Demko for 2023 1st + Zaitsev

If Ottawa is serious about pushing for the Playoffs next year they might be open to it. They shed a bad contract as well.

No chance

 

[Canucker]

All of the guys you take issue with had either been moved from their original team or struggled to get regular playing time. He may look like NHLers now but, as an example, Kostin had 68 games in the NHL when I put this together. He may still end up a fringe player. I knew when I did this that some players would graduate from fringe to NHLer but others would go the other way. I almost removed 2018 for this reason but decided to keep it because it’s not going to affect the percentages all that much and an equal amount will move between the two categories.

No, I get it…its a difficult process to determine the value of unfinished products…even in the case of Noesen, he’s a late NHL’er who could still very easily go back to being a “fringe” player…i think i mostly took issue with MS’s assertion of a 30% hit rate and 70% bust rate…I think its closer to 50% than it is to 30%…but if you are looking to hit on an impact player or even a really significant roster player, the numbers drop like a Rock.

 

[Vector]

No, I get it…its a difficult process to determine the value of unfinished products…even in the case of Noesen, he’s a late NHL’er who could still very easily go back to being a “fringe” player…i think i mostly took issue with MS’s assertion of a 30% hit rate and 70% bust rate…I think its closer to 50% than it is to 30%…but if you are looking to hit on an impact player or even a really significant roster player, the numbers drop like a Rock.

Considering his entire argument is that for Horvat the Canucks should be targeting a current NHLer that's at least a strong 3rd-line centre, then I'd say the 30% number would probably be right for 20-32nd overall. Would really need to drill down and separate out players within that range.

 

[kanucks25]

Ngl, I'd be quite into the proposed Rasmussen/Hronek package??

I would really dislike this package.

Hronek is not the answer on our D, I don't think he fits as a partner for either OEL or Hughes.

So with Pederson waived and Mikheyev due for an IR stint. The Canucks free up two spots on the roster before the break. Probably will send Di Guiseppe down as well. Additionally, if need be, Canucks can add 8m in LTIR space (Pearson and Mikheyev) if they wish to be a facilitator this deadline. Lots of flexibility for the next 32 days.

I would be honestly shocked if we did something shrewd like eating a bad contract for a pick.

Pleasantly shocked, obviously, but I think it's that unlikely.

 

[Canucker]

Considering his entire argument is that for Horvat the Canucks should be targeting a current NHLer that's at least a strong 3rd-line centre, then I'd say the 30% number would probably be right for 20-32nd overall. Would really need to drill down and separate out players within that range.

I think the origin of our discussion was actually Newhook vs a #25 pick and having a bias cloud my “decision making” because i preferred the pick to Newhook.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

No chance

Yeah we’re probably looking at some combo of Wood, Bahl, Mukhamadullin, Holtz, 2023 1st, and if we’re lucky, Mercer.

 

[kanucks25]

Whoever he's traded to, I really hope it's with an extension.

It'll likely be what's required for the piece coming back to be a legit blue-chipper vs. the standard rental deal of late 1st + mid prospect. The latter is obviously better than nothing but does not really push the "retool" forward in a meaningful way.

 

[kanucks25]

For me, I don't think I'd be all that excited if Rasmussen is the main premium asset coming back in a Horvat trade...I think we'd be pretty lucky if he tops out as a 2nd line center and is more likely suited to being a good 3rd line center...thats an area of need, but I would hope we could do better than that in a Horvat (signed) deal...perhaps thats all the market will bear, but I would hope for another decent asset to come back as well.

I imagine the 2nd piece would need to be Wallinder, as Edvinsson is likely off the table?

Both LD's anyway though.

 

[me2]

Demko for 2023 1st + Zaitsev

If Ottawa is serious about pushing for the Playoffs next year they might be open to it. They shed a bad contract as well.

That would signal the Canucks are full tank next year. That's not happening

 

[kanucks25]

Seravalli brought this up yesterday but pushed back against everyone saying that Horvat should be scratched. He basically said the NHL will allow it for one game if the deal is done the next day but anything more than that and it's likely the NHLPA would get involved.

Yeah the player won't allow it, the league won't allow it, and the PA won't allow it.

The idea of sitting him makes sense but at the same time it's unrealistic when it comes to the real world.

6-7 Teams Kicking tires on Boeser

I'm sure this is true but at the same time, do any of these teams see him as an asset or just a reclamation project that they would take on only if the Canucks take bad salary back?

Demko for 2023 1st + Zaitsev

If Ottawa is serious about pushing for the Playoffs next year they might be open to it. They shed a bad contract as well.

?? What the hell is this lol. Zaitsev has like two 2nd rounder negative value... we're basically giving away Demko for free?

 

[Horvat1C]

?? What the hell is this lol. Zaitsev has like two 2nd rounder negative value... we're basically giving away Demko for free?

That pick is top-10 this year.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Picks 20-30 consistently have a 30% hit rate and about 70% busts. And the 'move the needle' rate is even lower than that.

This isn’t really accurate in more recent drafts. Looking at who went between 20-30 in recent drafts:

2010 - 5 current NHLers with a few more having 400-500 game careers and recently leaving the league;
2011 - 5 current NHLers;
2012 - 5 current NHLers;
2013 - 5 current NHLers and a tweener;
2014 - 6 current NHLers;
2015 - 7 current NHLers plus a couple of tweeners;
2016 - 5 current NHLErs plus 2-3 tweeners with past NHL experience;
2017 - 9 current NHLers;
2018 - 5 already plus 3 tweeners playing some of this season (12-40 games or so).

So really a 52% chance of getting a full time NHLer based on this 9 year sample, and I’d say you’d have just over 50% of those players being a good/impact player.

Quality definitely varies from Dickinson to Pastrnak lol. 2014 is impressive, they currently collectively have about 750 goals already.

 

[kanucks25]

That pick is top-10 this year.

Would need to be unprotected.

Top-3 protected and no Zaitsev makes more sense overall. They can dump him elsewhere.

 

[lawrence]

Trade chatter on Miller picking up and 4 teams have shown interest

With the Canucks' counter performance last night. The team's management group may be observing the idea to flip the seller's switch on, heading into the last sprint before the deadline.

www.canucksdaily.com

this is a pipe dream but I hope this is true.

 

[JT Milker]

Trade chatter on Miller picking up and 4 teams have shown interest

With the Canucks' counter performance last night. The team's management group may be observing the idea to flip the seller's switch on, heading into the last sprint before the deadline.

www.canucksdaily.com

this is a pipe dream but I hope this is true.

It’s not.

 

[Bad Goalie]

You forgot two of the biggest candidates IMO: Johnsson in New Jersey and Reilly in Boston.

Reilly really intrigues me. Despite being crowded out on Boston's deep left side, he can probably help our blueline next year, and with that extra year on his contract the sweetener could be significant.

Boston's problem is they don't really have any worthwhile trade assets.

Are you acquiring Johnsson for Abby? Right now the Devils don't even consider him NHL worthy. He's being paid $3.4Mil to play out his contract in Utica much like Vancouver did with Baertschi. He's been nearly a PPG in Utica with 7/16/23 in 27 GP. He's played a meager 2 games with NJ. If you want a player that will try his best, but still be NHL tank material he would be a good bet, but if you want him to fill an NHL gap for you, unh-uh.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Rumours that NJ Devils are in the mix on Horvat. Wonder if a deal involving Luke Hughes could be made.

Ha! HA! Ha! HA! Ha! HA!

Luke Hughes is a untouchable as untouchable can be. Imagine those 2 + Bratt in OT. Good luck opponents.

 

[Bad Goalie]

Yeah we’re probably looking at some combo of Wood, Bahl, Mukhamadullin, Holtz, 2023 1st, and if we’re lucky, Mercer.

You won't be lucky.

 

[theguardianII]

Fantasy!

NJD trade for Hughes AND Boeser w/retention + 2024 3rd

For

Wood, Bahl, Mukhamadullin, Holtz, 2023 1st, 2025 1rst and Mercer.

Canucks then trade Horvat to Columbus

For

Jirieck, Sillinger/Johnsson and their 2025 1rst

Miller traded to Washington

For

Mantha and 2023 2nd rnd pick

Garland with retention to Minnesota

For

Greenway