Fantasy GM Thread | The One Where We Inch Closer to the TDL

[Mr. Canucklehead]

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[Nucker101]

Imagine not selling aggressively when you have a team that's won 4 games in regulation over it's last 23 games

 

[TruGr1t]

Imagine thinking it's a good idea to trade a mid-20s point-per-game winger for magic beans instead of signing him.
Jesus Christ.
NHL fandom in 2023 has completely lost the plot.

If you can't even entertain a case where trading him is beneficial to the franchise given the current state of the organization ... you've actually completely lost your mind.

 

[credulous]

i think whether you trade kuzmenko comes down entirely to the kind of contract you can sign him to and what he returns in trade. if he wants 7 mil per with term and you can get a premium prospect for him then you obviously trade him. if you can only get like a pair of 2nds or a b prospect and you can sign him for 22/4 or something similar then it would be ridiculous to trade him

personally i think he's already decided to go to ufa in which case you have to trade him

 

[MS]

If you can't even entertain a case where trading him is beneficial to the franchise given the current state of the organization ... you've actually completely lost your mind.

Trading mid-20s impact players for 2nd round picks or some such is not beneficial to any franchise no matter what their current state is.

The value you're getting back in a deal like this is comically terrible.

 

[Vector]

Imagine not selling aggressively when you have a team that's won 4 games in regulation over it's last 23 games

Canucks are in a bit of a unique position with Pettersson. You're walking a tightrope of making moves that convince him this is where he should play long-term and building for the future. I think we're going to see this inefficient middle ground where they trade Horvat for futures but retain Kuzmenko. Hence why they have publicly said they are looking for young NHL players and not prospects. It's not actually about ownership or fans; it's about Pettersson. Same reason they want to get Tocchet in. He comes in and starts building relationships with Pettersson and other key players. Gives them a clear vision of what the future will hold, even if the team is bad this season, and answers a big question for Pettersson before the summer. Every move is geared around Pettersson.

If they get to the offseason and he refuses to sign an extension, then they have two options depending on whether it's a hard no or he Tkachuk's them. If it's a full refusal then a full rebuild can start. Without Pettersson there's nothing on this team. Hughes is great but not someone you build an entire team around. Trades Hughes, Pettersson, anyone else you can. Scorched earth. You can start a rebuild anytime. If Pettersson expresses trepidation about an extension but not an outright refusal, then they'll probably spend the season going all out to salvage the relationship. Once Pettersson is locked in, they'll have security to make other moves.

So really, the entire franchise rests on what Pettersson wants to do and how the franchise can convince him he should play here.

 

[TruGr1t]

Trading mid-20s impact players for 2nd round picks or some such is not beneficial to any franchise no matter what their current state is.

The value you're getting back in a deal like this is comically terrible.

Who said anything about picks? Nobody. You shop him and see what you can get, if the return is good enough you trade him. It's not that complicated.

Nobody is saying give him away for nothing. There's also no reason to be particularly attached to him if someone is willing to overpay.

 

[Vector]

Who said anything about picks? Nobody. You shop him and see what you can get, if the return is good enough you trade him. It's not that complicated.

Nobody is saying give him away for nothing.

Seravalli said his value is pegged at two draft picks with the higher being a 2nd. That's what he's talking about.

 

[m9]

Trading mid-20s impact players for 2nd round picks or some such is not beneficial to any franchise no matter what their current state is.

The value you're getting back in a deal like this is comically terrible.

What if he says he's walking to UFA and isn't signing with the summer? I assume you're fine shopping him and taking the best available offer in that scenario?

 

[TruGr1t]

Seravalli said his value is pegged at two draft picks with the higher being a 2nd. That's what he's talking about.

Maybe that's true, I dunno. I just wouldn't take trading him off the table.

 

[MS]

Who said anything about picks? Nobody. You shop him and see what you can get, if the return is good enough you trade him. It's not that complicated.

Nobody is saying give him away for nothing.

Rental returns are always terrible.

If Kuzmenko has made it clear that he isn't signing and has not intent on returning, then obviously you have to trade him and eat shit on a bad deal. But this should only be a last resort.

It is absolutely f***ing insane to be cheerleading trading a player of this age/ability for crappy rental packages. The collective fan tantrum happening right now is the dumbest thing I've seen since the 'goalie fiasco' of 2014.

What if he says he's walking to UFA and isn't signing with the summer? I assume you're fine shopping him and taking the best available offer in that scenario?

As I said just above, obviously. Then you have to eat shit. But nobody should be cheerleading this as an outcome. It's the absolute worst-case scenario,

 

[credulous]

Canucks are in a bit of a unique position with Pettersson. You're walking a tightrope of making moves that convince him this is where he should play long-term and building for the future. I think we're going to see this inefficient middle ground where they trade Horvat for futures but retain Kuzmenko. Hence why they have publicly said they are looking for young NHL players and not prospects. It's not actually about ownership or fans; it's about Pettersson. Same reason they want to get Tocchet in. He comes in and starts building relationships with Pettersson and other key players. Gives them a clear vision of what the future will hold, even if the team is bad this season, and answers a big question for Pettersson before the summer. Every move is geared around Pettersson.

If they get to the offseason and he refuses to sign an extension, then they have two options depending on whether it's a hard no or he Tkachuk's them. If it's a full refusal then a full rebuild can start. Without Pettersson there's nothing on this team. Hughes is great but not someone you build an entire team around. Trades Hughes, Pettersson, anyone else you can. Scorched earth. You can start a rebuild anytime. If Pettersson expresses trepidation about an extension but not an outright refusal, then they'll probably spend the season going all out to salvage the relationship. Once Pettersson is locked in, they'll have security to make other moves.

So really, the entire franchise rests on what Pettersson wants to do and how the franchise can convince him he should play here.

we don't (and can't, really) know what pettersson's thinking is with regards to his future with the canucks. i don't think it's productive to speculate on what he wants and evaluate moves based on that. maybe he hates kuzmenko, horvat and schenn and wants them all gone. maybe he wants to be the undisputed star in town and wants a lineup of him plus all scrubs. maybe oliver ekman-larsson is a father figure to him and he'll leave if the canucks don't commit to oel. who knows? who cares?

 

[Hansen]

Sign Kuzmenko and make it work later

Dumping him as a rental isnt worth it. Even if you trade him later he has way more value with a contract, hes a special player

 

[iceburg]

IMO, of the players that would likely return value (i.e. excluding buyouts and cap dumps) a minimum of three of the following should go preferably at the trade deadline but at least by the summer:
Horvat
Boeser
Miller
Kuzmenko
Garland

The only criterion that I would put on the return is that they maximize value in the long term rather than the short term. Whether it is draft picks or younger players will depend completely on the risk/upside projection analysis. If they are getting a 20 year old defender that clearly projects to be a top 4 D man at this stage in his development that is better than most assets one could acquire through drafting an 18 year old, certainly after the first round.

Highest priorities:
Right shot D-man with size, mobility and defensively sound.
Right shot two-way centre that can play third line or higher.
Add top 6 under 22 centre projected as top 6 if both Horvat and Miller are traded (which they should be)

 

[m9]

As I said just above, obviously. Then you have to eat shit. But nobody should be cheerleading this as an outcome. It's the absolute worst-case scenario,

Worst-case scenario is a bad contract, not a bad rental trade. But, I'm in the minority with you and if there's a fair deal to be made then you do it.

I think a "bridge" contract as has been thrown around is an absolute no-brainer for the Canucks. Don't know why Kuzmenko would do it, but if he wants 2 or 3 years then sign me up.

I'm sure it's been asked before, but what is your max annual salary for Kuzmenko on 4/5/6/7 deals before you have to say no and trade him? You good with 7 x 6 years or 6.5 x 7 years?

 

[MS]

Worst-case scenario is a bad contract, not a bad rental trade. But, I'm in the minority with you and if there's a fair deal to be made then you do it.

I think a "bridge" contract as has been thrown around is an absolute no-brainer for the Canucks. Don't know why Kuzmenko would do it, but if he wants 2 or 3 years then sign me up.

I'm sure it's been asked before, but what is your max annual salary for Kuzmenko on 4/5/6/7 deals before you have to say no and trade him? You good with 7 x 6 years or 6.5 x 7 years?

I'm good with those sorts of contracts, yeah.

I think this is a potentially special player. He'd be over a point per game right now if he'd been on PP1 all season. He'd be winning the Calder if he was 6 months younger. He has exceptional chemistry with Pettersson. He's everything Boeser was supposed to be but then didn't turn into.

 

[m9]

From the last thread, re Dumba/Greenway for Boeser/Schenn.

---
@timw33

I think we win that deal by moving 6.65MM Boeser out for 3MM Greenway, same term length, but fits the more traditional mold of a hulking third line player who is a bit more defensively sound than Boeser.

The worry is that they would see Dumba as a long term fix and sign to an extension of course.
---

I'm on the fence but I could be easily persuaded to like it.

It's a deal where if Minnesota could toss in a 2nd or 3rd I'd do it. Then see how Dumba is for the next 4-6 weeks and potentially retain & flip at the deadline for say a 2nd/3rd & 5th or something like that?

That gets us into the off-season with 2 or 3 more picks, out of the Boeser contract, and then you've got Greenway as a heavy bottom-six presence at 3 million bucks for the next 2 seasons.

I think I'm good with all that. I like putting Boeser in a spot that he'll like too, though so it's not a priority or anything.

Greenway is kind of my caveat here as I haven't been following at all what's going on with him and whatever issues he's had there this season.

 

[Canucker]

Worst-case scenario is a bad contract, not a bad rental trade. But, I'm in the minority with you and if there's a fair deal to be made then you do it.

I think a "bridge" contract as has been thrown around is an absolute no-brainer for the Canucks. Don't know why Kuzmenko would do it, but if he wants 2 or 3 years then sign me up.

I'm sure it's been asked before, but what is your max annual salary for Kuzmenko on 4/5/6/7 deals before you have to say no and trade him? You good with 7 x 6 years or 6.5 x 7 years?

Yeah, I think it really depends on your opinion of the player...the rub is that his resume is paper thin, despite being VERY strong. I'd bet on him, but I wouldn't bet the farm on him...if his agent is simply about maximizing his contract numbers and has some tall asks, I'm probably looking to sell...but if we're being reasonable and he likes Vancouver and wants to get paid a reasonable sum I'd be happy to throw some decent ($6m) money at him over a modest term (4-5 years)...if we're not in the same ballpark then it would have to be "goodbye".

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Sign Kuzmenko and make it work later

Dumping him as a rental isnt worth it. Even if you trade him later he has way more value with a contract, hes a special player

Makes zero sense if the return is a 2nd and then a worse pick than that. You have to sign him and it's an easy decision if that's the case. But let's not forget he's shooting at almost 25% right now. Alex Tanguay would blush at that rate.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Kuzmenko walked into a dysfunctional team, about to see the captain traded, more losses, not on pp, on the bench for dries and lazar in the final minutes..

No guarantees he wants to sign here and no shortage of teams will be lining up to sign him a ufa.

 

[m9]

Yeah, I think it really depends on your opinion of the player...the rub is that his resume is paper thin, despite being VERY strong. I'd bet on him, but I wouldn't bet the farm on him...if his agent is simply about maximizing his contract numbers and has some tall asks, I'm probably looking to sell...but if we're being reasonable and he likes Vancouver and wants to get paid a reasonable sum I'd be happy to throw some decent ($6m) money at him over a modest term (4-5 years)...if we're not in the same ballpark then it would have to be "goodbye".

I'm less worried about the resume/sample size. He's been in the city, he's been around your core players, you know his work rate and should know what kind of person you are buying into. Not entirely ideal after only half a season, but he checks a bunch of the boxes for me.

The one part that doesn't really sync here is that he will assuredly be in a new system with a new coach so you don't have that continuity. If Tocchet comes in and that relationship is a mess, I probably pivot and move on by the deadline.

 

[me2]

Worst-case scenario is a bad contract, not a bad rental trade. But, I'm in the minority with you and if there's a fair deal to be made then you do it.

I think a "bridge" contract as has been thrown around is an absolute no-brainer for the Canucks. Don't know why Kuzmenko would do it, but if he wants 2 or 3 years then sign me up.

I'm sure it's been asked before, but what is your max annual salary for Kuzmenko on 4/5/6/7 deals before you have to say no and trade him? You good with 7 x 6 years or 6.5 x 7 years?

2-3 years would be good, if Pettersson is unhappy they can leave together as UFAs.

 

[Szechwan]

Rental returns are always terrible.

If Kuzmenko has made it clear that he isn't signing and has not intent on returning, then obviously you have to trade him and eat shit on a bad deal. But this should only be a last resort.

It is absolutely f***ing insane to be cheerleading trading a player of this age/ability for crappy rental packages. The collective fan tantrum happening right now is the dumbest thing I've seen since the 'goalie fiasco' of 2014.



As I said just above, obviously. Then you have to eat shit. But nobody should be cheerleading this as an outcome. It's the absolute worst-case scenario,

I'm actually a bit surprised you have such a strong opinion on this.

Kuzmenko is going to be 27 when he signs his next deal, which will mostly likely be north of 5m x3y. I'm sorry, but there is no world where we are going to be contenders in the next 3 years. Getting back a late first or two 2nds for him isn't as much about the pure value as just having capspace and chips to play. Imagine where this team would be if we had two spare 2nds and 5m in cap space back when the Isles had to move Toews.

We are crammed up against the cap and no one is going to relieve of us OEL - although perhaps they might listen if we add in that first we could get for Kuz?

I love Kuzmenko, and it's been fun watching him gel with Petey, but this is about asset management, somewhere the Canucks have failed at every turn in the past decade. Time to tear off the bandaid and do this right.

 

[timw33]

The thing I go back and forth on with the idea of signing Kuz is just whether adding more $6MM wingers to the mix helps us long term or not. Like if they had non-tendered Boeser and just believed in Kuz as his replacement, that's one thing, it's that we also have multiple high priced wingers on outsized deals that no one wants to give us assets for that gives me pause.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Boeser + Schenn for Dumba, Greenway + Bankier

Saves Minny $$ and loads them up for a run.

Greenway becomes a cap saving measure to Boeser.

Dumba gives the Nucks a RHD sorely needed. See what he does before the TDL. Possibly flip for more assets.

Bankier restocks the pool with a sorely needed C.