Fantasy GM Thread | Part 9

[iceburg]

Thoughts on Tyson Jost? If I read correctly
the Avs likely can’t protect him from expansion draft.

Any chance we get him for the 3C spot?

After a quick look I don't think Colorado will be very incentivized to trade him. They aren't even able to protect players that are higher than him in the line-up so the probability of him being picked is lower than on other squads that don't have as much depth.

 

[DarrenX]

A first, Eriksson and Podkolzin (Buffalo fans won't back down from his inclusion) for Reinhart+ from Buffalo.

That's basically Podkolzin for Reinhart+. We'd be lucky if a first + Eriksson would return a bag of pucks... it cost the Leafs a first to be rid of the last year of Marleau's contract and he was 5 times they player that Eriksson currently is.

 

[bandwagonesque]

That's basically Podkolzin for Reinhart+. We'd be lucky if a first + Eriksson would return a bag of pucks... it cost the Leafs a first to be rid of the last year of Marleau's contract and he was 5 times they player that Eriksson currently is.

You seem to have ignored every piece of context that shows the two situations aren't comparable. Marleau's cap hit was 667k higher, his real salary is 2.5-3.5M higher depending on whether the trade takes place after his bonus is paid, and the Canucks' 1st will be in the 5-8 range while the Toronto pick ended up at 13, and Marleau was only willing to move to a team that would immediately buy him out at his full cap hit due to it being a 35+ contract while any team that acquires Eriksson can buy him out immediately.

 

[DarrenX]

That's basically Podkolzin for Reinhart+. We'd be lucky if a first + Eriksson would return a bag of pucks... it cost the Leafs a first to be rid of the last year of Marleau's contract and he was 5 times they player that Eriksson currently is.

Eriksson + the (absurd) RL recapture penalty is $10m in dead cap right there, and that's not even mentioning the $3m replacement-level players littered through the lineup. No team can contend with that kind of handicap.

Forget next year and treat it as a rebuilding year. Flip everyone who won't be part of the solution for picks and prospects. Sign vets to ONE year deals and flip them at the deadline. If they won't sign for one year then they can play somewhere else. If they want an NMC they can play somewhere else.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Reinhart is two years from UFA. Let's just leave trades for top 6 forwards alone for a bit and try to develop some of our own. It's nearly impossible to trade your way out of mediocrity unless you have a ton of cap space.

 

[Lindgren]

Eriksson + the (absurd) RL recapture penalty is $10m in dead cap right there, and that's not even mentioning the $3m replacement-level players littered through the lineup. No team can contend with that kind of handicap.

Forget next year and treat it as a rebuilding year. Flip everyone who won't be part of the solution for picks and prospects. Sign vets to ONE year deals and flip them at the deadline. If they won't sign for one year then they can play somewhere else. If they want an NMC they can play somewhere else.

It's so obvious, the logic so overwhelming, and yet some still want to strive for mediocrity. It's mind boggling.

 

[bossram]

Think I would pass. Not really the kind of Centre I would want for #3. He's not good in the faceoff dot, and his build is more of a top 6-upside kind of forward, but he hasn't really clicked yet at the pro level. If you want to target a pending RFA in Colorado I would rather it be Conor Timmins.

This is really the opposite read of what Jost is.

Colorado fans have applauded Jost's work ethic and defensive effort. He's really fit in as a defensive-oriented centre. His RAPM defensive shot impacts (from Evolving Hockey) are quite strong. If anything, it's his offensive upside that's been stunted by being rushed to the NHL. He's the actual kind of defensive centre you want. Faceoffs =/= good defensively, as shown by Jay Beagle.

I don't think there's much incentive from either party to orchestrate a Jost trade though. I don't see Colorado making any deals to protect players in the expansion draft. They have to lose someone and they'll just accept it. Likely one of Nichushkin, Donskoi, Jost, Graves, or McDonald.

 

[sting101]

This is really the opposite read of what Jost is.

Colorado fans have applauded Jost's work ethic and defensive effort. He's really fit in as a defensive-oriented centre. His RAPM defensive shot impacts (from Evolving Hockey) are quite strong. If anything, it's his offensive upside that's been stunted by being rushed to the NHL. He's the actual kind of defensive centre you want. Faceoffs =/= good defensively, as shown by Jay Beagle.

I don't think there's much incentive from either party to orchestrate a Jost trade though. I don't see Colorado making any deals to protect players in the expansion draft. They have to lose someone and they'll just accept it. Likely one of Nichushkin, Donskoi, Jost, Graves, or McDonald.

Zero chance they don't protect Jost. Would be an insane pick up if we could get him.

 

[m9]

I get that this is a "fantasy" thread, but I have no idea how or why people think Eichel is a necessary move for this team for a variety of reasons. The team needs a third-line center and a top-four defenseman, not to get involved in an Eichel bidding war.

 

[timw33]

I get that this is a "fantasy" thread, but I have no idea how or why people think Eichel is a necessary move for this team for a variety of reasons. The team needs a third-line center and a top-four defenseman, not to get involved in an Eichel bidding war.

The Eichel fit is clear for a team like LAK/NYR who actually have cap room and expendable assets to meaningfully push their rebuilds into the next phase.

For the Canucks...who have zero expendable picks, zero expandable assets, zero cap space to spare, and are already approaching a UFA cliff in 2 years...

 

[MS]

You know how Kyle Turris and Stephen Weiss put up 60-point seasons that looked ok on the back of a hockey card, but needed 20 minutes/game as an offensive focal point on a bad team to do it? And then cratered as soon as a good team tried to put them in 2nd line minutes?

Sam Reinhart is the current version of that player. Good luck thinking he'll match his current production playing 16 minutes next to Horvat + 2nd unit PP time.

 

[CanuckleBerry]

This is really the opposite read of what Jost is.

Colorado fans have applauded Jost's work ethic and defensive effort. He's really fit in as a defensive-oriented centre. His RAPM defensive shot impacts (from Evolving Hockey) are quite strong. If anything, it's his offensive upside that's been stunted by being rushed to the NHL. He's the actual kind of defensive centre you want. Faceoffs =/= good defensively, as shown by Jay Beagle.

I don't think there's much incentive from either party to orchestrate a Jost trade though. I don't see Colorado making any deals to protect players in the expansion draft. They have to lose someone and they'll just accept it. Likely one of Nichushkin, Donskoi, Jost, Graves, or McDonald.

Sounds like I am mistaken. I will try to catch some of the Avs next game and take a look see. This is not what my impression of Jost was. But yeah, I do agree that Colorado might not be in great need of swinging an expansion draft deal unless there is some remote way of getting rid of EJ's cap hit. Tampa would be a better target for that overall strategy. I don't get the sense they are keen on trading Cernak, but he would be great on our blueline. Wonder what it would take.

 

[MS]

Yeah, Jost came in as a top-10 pick/skill guy and never really fit or showed the offensive upside he was supposed to, but has re-profiled himself as an excellent Charlie Hustle-type 3rd liner who can chip in ~30 points.

 

[Nucker101]

You know how Kyle Turris and Stephen Weiss put up 60-point seasons that looked ok on the back of a hockey card, but needed 20 minutes/game as an offensive focal point on a bad team to do it? And then cratered as soon as a good team tried to put them in 2nd line minutes?

Sam Reinhart is the current version of that player. Good luck thinking he'll match his current production playing 16 minutes next to Horvat + 2nd unit PP time.

His effectiveness at 5v5 has fallen off over true last couple of years in terms of creating quality offensive shots for himself or linemates. He’s pretty solid defensively though, but I definitely agree that his offensive impact is overrated

From what I’ve heard, Benning told Reinhart and his family back in 2014 that the Canucks were going to try and trade up for him so I fully expect Benning to make a call on him if he’s still employed here

 

[Cogburn]

That's basically Podkolzin for Reinhart+. We'd be lucky if a first + Eriksson would return a bag of pucks... it cost the Leafs a first to be rid of the last year of Marleau's contract and he was 5 times they player that Eriksson currently is.

That's a top 10 pick, Eriksson and Podkolzin. And I'd take back my offer on this one, after thinking it over Podkolzin is much too valuable on his ELC to move at present.

Marleau's cap hit was higher (if Eriksson isn't mean to play, he'd be on the taxi squad for 4.875, and his buy out is 4 million, where Marleau was the full 6.25 for both), Toronto was unable to move forward without moving a contract (like Vegas and Schmidt last year), his base salary is 4 million, and Toronto's pick was not expected to be high. They were expected to compete, as well as the Leafs can.

Marleau might be 5 times the player Eriksson is (5 x 0 is still 0 though), but Marleau was never meant to play...he was meant to be bought out. So it was Marleau's cap hit for nothing...kind of like Eriksson's cap hit.

Marleau gave Toronto some very rigid criteria for a trade, and Toronto was desperate. Effectively Toronto had one team that would take Marleau and buy him out, and even being desperate, they gave up what they thought would have been a later first round pick. Vancouver is not desperate to unload Eriksson, it would just be a condition of taking salary back, we'd have to unload it there.

So the player was no better (0 vs. 0), the cap hit was higher, the team moving Marleau was basically stuck, the pick was expected to be for a playoff team (where as the worst the Canucks pick would be is 11th if we win the last two games (big if) AND move back in the lottery), and frankly if we did have to move cap, we have several other contracts expiring next season instead. One year of Eriksson is worth way less to dump than our first round pick this year.

 

[bossram]

Zero chance they don't protect Jost. Would be an insane pick up if we could get him.

I agree they would likely protect him anyway if they go 7+3. There's no way for Vancouver to acquire him though.

 

[bossram]

You know how Kyle Turris and Stephen Weiss put up 60-point seasons that looked ok on the back of a hockey card, but needed 20 minutes/game as an offensive focal point on a bad team to do it? And then cratered as soon as a good team tried to put them in 2nd line minutes?

Sam Reinhart is the current version of that player. Good luck thinking he'll match his current production playing 16 minutes next to Horvat + 2nd unit PP time.

I don't really think that'll happen with Reinhart. He's basically been at a ~50+/82 point pace for his whole career. Under the hood, his shot impacts are solid and his defensive play is pretty good. His individual scoring chance generation is pretty good.

If paired with Horvat in a defensively-focussed role, I could see his production going down. But I still think he'd be pretty valuable considering his two-way value, and would significantly help Horvat given his usual deployment.

If he ends up as a UFA, I would look into him. The Canucks are not in a place to trade assets for him though.

 

[MS]

I don't really think that'll happen with Reinhart. He's basically been at a ~50+/82 point pace for his whole career. Under the hood, his shot impacts are solid and his defensive play is pretty good. His individual scoring chance generation is pretty good.

If paired with Horvat in a defensively-focussed role, I could see his production going down. But I still think he'd be pretty valuable considering his two-way value, and would significantly help Horvat given his usual deployment.

If he ends up as a UFA, I would look into him. The Canucks are not in a place to trade assets for him though.

He's also rode shotgun with a superstar in Jack Eichel his whole career.

His shot impacts are good because of his usage. 60% zone start guy. Disagree that he's good defensively. And he's slow and soft which this team already has in spades. He's basically a poor man's Boeser who does have the ability to play C if needed.

I would be money that if this player goes to a good team where he's playing 16 minutes as a 2nd liner that he'll crater to a 40-something point player.

 

[canuckking1]

He's also rode shotgun with a superstar in Jack Eichel his whole career.

His shot impacts are good because of his usage. 60% zone start guy. Disagree that he's good defensively. And he's slow and soft which this team already has in spades. He's basically a poor man's Boeser who does have the ability to play C if needed.

I would be money that if this player goes to a good team where he's playing 16 minutes as a 2nd liner that he'll crater to a 40-something point player.

That's basically what I see as well. Not only would he not be a fit he wouldn't fit the cap structure can't be paying 2 slow winger 7M+. Canucks need to look for players with Hoglander Esque stat line where the number doesn't blow you away but when you dig deep you see they do most of their damage at even strength.

 

[MS]

That's basically what I see as well. Not only would he not be a fit he wouldn't fit the cap structure can't be paying 2 slow winger 7M+. Canucks need to look for players with Hoglander Esque stat line where the number doesn't blow you away but when you dig deep you see they do most of their damage at even strength.

1000%

Reinhart is basically the forward version of Tyler Myers - an OK player who would be a useful enough mid-roster asset at $3 million ... but you're not getting him for $3 million. You're paying him double that, and at that price he's a liability.

And yeah, we need guys who generate ES results. And preferably can skate. Our PP group is basically set.

 

[m9]

I kind of see Sam Reinhart having a Sam Gagner career the rest of the way.

 

[bossram]

He's also rode shotgun with a superstar in Jack Eichel his whole career.

His shot impacts are good because of his usage. 60% zone start guy. Disagree that he's good defensively. And he's slow and soft which this team already has in spades. He's basically a poor man's Boeser who does have the ability to play C if needed.

I would be money that if this player goes to a good team where he's playing 16 minutes as a 2nd liner that he'll crater to a 40-something point player.

I was looking at his RAPM and Isolated Impact metrics, which try to account for zone starts, teammates, etc. They look pretty solid.

You called him a Tyler Myers player...uhhh these same metrics paint Myers as a very bad player. I would not say they're similar in any way.

I don't really care if a guy is slow or soft, as long as pucks are headed in the right direction.

 

[MS]

I was looking at his RAPM and Isolated Impact metrics, which try to account for zone starts, teammates, etc. They look pretty solid.

You called him a Tyler Myers player...uhhh these same metrics paint Myers as a very bad player. I would not say they're similar in any way.

I don't really care if a guy is slow or soft, as long as pucks are headed in the right direction.

I have never seen any sort of model that accurately allows for zone starts and usage.

And like I said, I don't buy what these graphs are selling on Tyler Myers, either.

 

[bossram]

I have never seen any sort of model that accurately allows for zone starts and usage.

And like I said, I don't buy what these graphs are selling on Tyler Myers, either.

I mean, what do you mean by accurately? Accurately according to what? There are several models that try to account for contextual variables. We can believe them or not, but no one can mentally account for that stuff either.

I dunno, "the graphs" put up big buyer beware stickers on Myers, which seemed prescient.

 

[MS]

I mean, what do you mean by accurately? Accurately according to what? There are several models that try to account for contextual variables. We can believe them or not, but no one can mentally account for that stuff either.

I dunno, "the graphs" put up big buyer beware stickers on Myers, which seemed prescient.

If a different statistic is clearly driving your results, your numbers are not accurate.

Every model I've ever seen has a disproportionate percentage of soft-minute offensive players as analytical darlings.