F Brady Tkachuk (2018, 4th, OTT)

[Brodeur]

I know numbers aren’t everything, but how is it that he hasn’t put up impressive numbers anywhere?

I suppose it's how you choose to interpret the numbers. Tkachuk didn't have the same amount of talent on his USNTDP squad that his brother had. The 2014-15 iteration was stacked. 31 points in 40 games as a college freshman is pretty impressive. I think we've just been spoiled by some other freshman performances in recent years. Kieffer Bellows went from 7 goals for BU as a freshman, left the program for the WHL, and subsequently scored 41 goals.

The other thing I'll be curious to see is if Tkachuk's shooting percentage regresses to the mean (if he chooses to go back to BU). I feel like everybody's looking at Tkachuk's 8 goals and deciding that's the takeaway number. The thing that sticks out to me was his 6% shooting percentage. This is where scouting somebody in person might help decipher whether that shows a lack of finish or if that may have been a fluky season.

At least for me, that's something I look for in a sleeper when it comes to a fantasy hockey draft. Guys who had a rough season tend to get taken later since most folks only look at the goal totals from the previous year and assume that the player is likely to repeat the same numbers. Guys like Giroux, Seguin, and MacKinnon had bad shooting percentages in 2016-17 but rebounded to have great 2017-18 campaigns. A guy like Craig Smith shot 7.7% in 2015-16 and then went back to a more normal 10.9% this year and he had his typical 25 goals. Brendan Gallagher went from 5.3% to 11.2% this year and potted 31 goals. (And similarly, the stay away guys are ones who shoot ~20% since that's difficult to repeat)

 

[Agent Zub]

Did people say that? IMO it looks like he has better hands or as good as Matthew's

Mathew made things happen every shift because of his hockey sense and put up dominant numbers because of it. Brady just doesn't have that kind of impact on the game.

 

[Dack]

I suppose it's how you choose to interpret the numbers. Tkachuk didn't have the same amount of talent on his USNTDP squad that his brother had. The 2014-15 iteration was stacked. 31 points in 40 games as a college freshman is pretty impressive. I think we've just been spoiled by some other freshman performances in recent years. Kieffer Bellows went from 7 goals for BU as a freshman, left the program for the WHL, and subsequently scored 41 goals.

The other thing I'll be curious to see is if Tkachuk's shooting percentage regresses to the mean (if he chooses to go back to BU). I feel like everybody's looking at Tkachuk's 8 goals and deciding that's the takeaway number. The thing that sticks out to me was his 6% shooting percentage. This is where scouting somebody in person might help decipher whether that shows a lack of finish or if that may have been a fluky season.

At least for me, that's something I look for in a sleeper when it comes to a fantasy hockey draft. Guys who had a rough season tend to get taken later since most folks only look at the goal totals from the previous year and assume that the player is likely to repeat the same numbers. Guys like Giroux, Seguin, and MacKinnon had bad shooting percentages in 2016-17 but rebounded to have great 2017-18 campaigns. A guy like Craig Smith shot 7.7% in 2015-16 and then went back to a more normal 10.9% this year and he had his typical 25 goals. Brendan Gallagher went from 5.3% to 11.2% this year and potted 31 goals. (And similarly, the stay away guys are ones who shoot ~20% since that's difficult to repeat)

I don't have a strong opinion either way but it goes back farther than that. Stolen from reddit I think.

Matthew and Brady played in different leagues in their draft years, but Matthew's draft year NHLE in the OHL was 51.43, which was right on the mark considering the 51.79 points per 82 games he scored in his rookie NHL season.

Brady's draft year NHLE so far playing for BU is 22.36 (14 points in 19 games).

Brady draft -1 U18 tournament: 7 points in 7 games. 1.00 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 U18 tournament: 12 points in 7 games. 1.71 PPG.

Brady draft -1 USDP National U18 Team: 54 points in 61 games. 1.05 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 USDP National U18 Team: 95 points in 65 games. 1.46 PPG.

Brady draft -1 USNTDP Juniors: 23 points in 24 games. 0.96 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 USNTDP Juniors: 33 points in 24 games. 1.375 PPG.

Brady draft -2 USNTDP U17 Team: 25 points in 55 games. 0.45 PPG.
Matthew draft -2 USNTDP U17 Team: 33 points in 53 games. 0.622 PPG.

Brady draft -2 USNTDP Juniors: 8 points in 32 games. 0.25 PPG.
Matthew draft -2 USNTDP Juniors: 17 points in 31 games. 0.51 PPG.

Brady draft -3 St. Louis AAA Blues U16: 43 points in 33 games. 1.3 PPG.
Matthew draft -3 St. Louis AAA Blues U16: 82 points in 41 games. 2.00 PPG.

I think he'll be a good 2nd liner but I'm not sure he'll be better than his brother.

 

[Captain Bowie]

I really don't see what others do in Tkachuk as a top 10 pick. Yeah, maybe his basement is higher than the others, but inside the top 10 no GM should be looking to pick safe, it should be about upside.

As I said before, I would be happy to see him go in the top 6 simply so that Vancouver doesn't even have the option to take them. I could see anyone from 3-6 taking him.

 

[ijuka]

Brady isn't Matthew.

I got a feeling that whoever drafts Brady will find themselves in an Alex-William Nylander situation. Hopefully it's not a team I cheer for.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I don't have a strong opinion either way but it goes back farther than that. Stolen from reddit I think.

Matthew and Brady played in different leagues in their draft years, but Matthew's draft year NHLE in the OHL was 51.43, which was right on the mark considering the 51.79 points per 82 games he scored in his rookie NHL season.

Brady's draft year NHLE so far playing for BU is 22.36 (14 points in 19 games).

Brady draft -1 U18 tournament: 7 points in 7 games. 1.00 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 U18 tournament: 12 points in 7 games. 1.71 PPG.

Brady draft -1 USDP National U18 Team: 54 points in 61 games. 1.05 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 USDP National U18 Team: 95 points in 65 games. 1.46 PPG.

Brady draft -1 USNTDP Juniors: 23 points in 24 games. 0.96 PPG.
Matthew draft -1 USNTDP Juniors: 33 points in 24 games. 1.375 PPG.

Brady draft -2 USNTDP U17 Team: 25 points in 55 games. 0.45 PPG.
Matthew draft -2 USNTDP U17 Team: 33 points in 53 games. 0.622 PPG.

Brady draft -2 USNTDP Juniors: 8 points in 32 games. 0.25 PPG.
Matthew draft -2 USNTDP Juniors: 17 points in 31 games. 0.51 PPG.

Brady draft -3 St. Louis AAA Blues U16: 43 points in 33 games. 1.3 PPG.
Matthew draft -3 St. Louis AAA Blues U16: 82 points in 41 games. 2.00 PPG.

I think he'll be a good 2nd liner but I'm not sure he'll be better than his brother.

That is decent until you sort of remember who surrounded them on those squads. His brother played in a era of the most talented age group in St. Louis history where five of them went in the first round, though I think it was just him and Kunin in his last monster year there. He was on lines with Eichel and Matthews in the USMNTDP and then the monster line in London. I am not saying he didn't help play a big part in that success, but certainly that has a huge difference in terms of sheer number comparisons.

I think Brady is a little better skater, with slightly higher hockey IQ and superior passing. Time will tell. Matthew Tkachuk is a very good hockey player, I think that will be true of both brothers here, I actually like Brady a little more though but that is just personal opinion, time will tell.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Y’all do realize that Matthew played two years with Auston Matthews and another with Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak, whereas Brady played with, like, Josh Norris, right?

Everyone doubted Matthew. They said he was a product of Marner and Matthews, that he didn’t have first line upside, and that he wasn’t worth a top-5 pick. People have short memories.

 

[Saxon]

Yet he hasn't been able to outproduce defensemen Quinn Hughes in the ushl, usndp, or NCAA. He did outproduce him riding coattails at the wjc... But Hughes got invited to play with the big boys not Brady. So after all the production excused I am reading, how come he can't outproduce a defenceman the same age, same teams, and then same league?

 

[Eternalize]

Brady isn't Matthew.

I got a feeling that whoever drafts Brady will find themselves in an Alex-William Nylander situation. Hopefully it's not a team I cheer for.

Yeah i can't help but think that his name is helping him in the draft rankings. I was a big fan of Matthew in 2016 and was absolutely outraged when my team (the Canucks) passed on him and picked Juolevi instead. This draft is strange, for once i feel like it would take a lot in order for the Canucks to really disappoint me with their pick, which is something i haven't been able to say previous years. But even though Brady should be gone by the time the Canucks pick this year based upon what you're hearing, i would probably be disappointed if he somehow fell to them and they picked him. Not that i think he will be a bad player or anything, just don't think there's high end potential there, and he's not really what the Canucks need.

It would also be hard to not see it as management admitting to their mistake in 2016, which would then make you go Matthew>Brady, Juolevi<any of the top10 defensemen this year. Basically being anxious of how things could have been better.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Yeah i can't help but think that his name is helping him in the draft rankings. I was a big fan of Matthew in 2016 and was absolutely outraged when my team (the Canucks) passed on him and picked Juolevi instead. This draft is strange, for once i feel like it would take a lot in order for the Canucks to really disappoint me with their pick, which is something i haven't been able to say previous years. But even though Brady should be gone by the time the Canucks pick this year based upon what you're hearing, i would probably be disappointed if he somehow fell to them and they picked him. Not that i think he will be a bad player or anything, just don't think there's high end potential there, and he's not really what the Canucks need.

It would also be hard to not see it as management admitting to their mistake in 2016, which would then make you go Matthew>Brady, Juolevi<any of the top10 defensemen this year. Basically being anxious of how things could have been better.

If Tkachuk is at 7th you take him. There's a reason why he's top 5 in all mock drafts and if he were to slip out of the top 5, then he's the BPA for us at 7th.

I think 2016 is a great example of you take the BPA, not an organizational need. We took Juolevi (an organizational need on defense) over the BPA. Always go for BPA.

 

[Dack]

That is decent until you sort of remember who surrounded them on those squads. His brother played in a era of the most talented age group in St. Louis history where five of them went in the first round, though I think it was just him and Kunin in his last monster year there. He was on lines with Eichel and Matthews in the USMNTDP and then the monster line in London. I am not saying he didn't help play a big part in that success, but certainly that has a huge difference in terms of sheer number comparisons.

I think Brady is a little better skater, with slightly higher hockey IQ and superior passing. Time will tell. Matthew Tkachuk is a very good hockey player, I think that will be true of both brothers here, I actually like Brady a little more though but that is just personal opinion, time will tell.

That's fine that you believe that but I just don't think linemates make up that big of a difference. Matthew doubled his NHLe this year.

I will say that if Brady is a better, faster Matthew he should go 3rd overall. Matthew is a borderline 1st line winger in his 2nd season. But I really don't think he is.

Yet he hasn't been able to outproduce defensemen Quinn Hughes in the ushl, usndp, or NCAA. He did outproduce him riding coattails at the wjc... But Hughes got invited to play with the big boys not Brady. So after all the production excused I am reading, how come he can't outproduce a defenceman the same age, same teams, and then same league?

He also produced nearly identically to Shane Bowers this year who is almost the same age and went 28th last year.

 

[Eternalize]

If Tkachuk is at 7th you take him. There's a reason why he's top 5 in all mock drafts and if he were to slip out of the top 5, then he's the BPA for us at 7th.

I think 2016 is a great example of you take the BPA, not an organizational need. We took Juolevi (an organizational need on defense) over the BPA. Always go for BPA.

Yeah it was quite obvious that they took Juolevi just because he was a defenseman, which was something they had failed to draft in previous years somehow. But i never saw him as more than a #3 guy. I agree that BPA is the way to go, and i know Brady is a consensus top5 pick. That being said, i don't see him really being head and shoulders above the rest in the top10, i don't think his potential outshines this years defensemen. Compared to 2016, i like this defense crop way better, while i also don't like Brady as much as Matthew, and i think there are potential 1st pairing defensemen there for the taking.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Yeah it was quite obvious that they took Juolevi just because he was a defenseman, which was something they had failed to draft in previous years somehow. But i never saw him as more than a #3 guy. I agree that BPA is the way to go, and i know Brady is a consensus top5 pick. That being said, i don't see him really being head and shoulders above the rest in the top10, i don't think his potential outshines this years defensemen. Compared to 2016, i like this defense crop way better, while i also don't like Brady as much as Matthew, and i think there are potential 1st pairing defensemen there for the taking.

for sure.

We are picking pretty much near the end of the top 10, we have a lot more options in drafting variety of players that are considered BPA at 7th. For example, Wahlstrom, Hughes (who I really want us to draft), Boqvist, Bouchard, Dobson, etc.

I'd be ecstatic if we can come out with either Wahlstrom, Hughes, or Tkachuk. Tkachuk would solidify our future top line with Horvat and Pettersson. Wahlstrom would be our number one center, and Hughes would be the perennial, possibly franchise #1 defenseman.

I'd be bummed if all 3 are taken. There's a huge chance all of them are gone considering Arizona needing a LW, Ottawa needing a high scoring forward prospect, and Detroit needing a PMD.

 

[rt]

for sure.

We are picking pretty much near the end of the top 10, we have a lot more options in drafting variety of players that are considered BPA at 7th. For example, Wahlstrom, Hughes (who I really want us to draft), Boqvist, Bouchard, Dobson, etc.

I'd be ecstatic if we can come out with either Wahlstrom, Hughes, or Tkachuk. Tkachuk would solidify our future top line with Horvat and Pettersson. Wahlstrom would be our number one center, and Hughes would be the perennial, possibly franchise #1 defenseman.

I'd be bummed if all 3 are taken. There's a huge chance all of them are gone considering Arizona needing a LW, Ottawa needing a high scoring forward prospect, and Detroit needing a PMD.

1. Wahlstrom is not a center.

2. The last thing Arizona needs is a LW.

 

[LemonSauceD]

1. Wahlstrom is not a center.

2. The last thing Arizona needs is a LW.

Wahlstrom played center for most of his life until this past season where he was put on a line with Jack Hughes a 1st overall pick of next years. He addressed that on a local news podcast/interview. I can see him transitioning back to center if he were to be drafted by us especially.

Although you're probably right on the Arizona part.

 

[rt]

Wahlstrom played center for most of his life until this past season where he was put on a line with Jack Hughes a 1st overall pick of next years. He addressed that on a local news podcast/interview. I can see him transitioning back to center if he were to be drafted by us especially.

Although you're probably right on the Arizona part.

There is nothing about Wahlstrom’s game that lends itself to center. He’s as wingy a winger as I’ve seen. The wingiest prospect in the draft. He spends 90% of his time waiting for the puck. He’s a poor man’s Brett Hull.

 

[schnapshot]

Wahlstrom played center for most of his life until this past season where he was put on a line with Jack Hughes a 1st overall pick of next years. He addressed that on a local news podcast/interview. I can see him transitioning back to center if he were to be drafted by us especially.

Although you're probably right on the Arizona part.

Because one has played center in his youth/teen hockey days does not mean he can be one at the NHL level. See Drouin, Jonathan

 

[Wallet Inspector]

If his last name wasn't "Tkachuk" he wouldn't be rated as highly.

 

[Whalers Fan]

Wahlstrom played center for most of his life until this past season where he was put on a line with Jack Hughes a 1st overall pick of next years. He addressed that on a local news podcast/interview. I can see him transitioning back to center if he were to be drafted by us especially.

Although you're probably right on the Arizona part.

Wahlstrom did not play center in either of his two seasons with the NTDP. Jack Hughes had nothing to do with him playing wing for the program. He's not a center.

 

[Deleted member 55113]

Because one has played center in his youth/teen hockey days does not mean he can be one at the NHL level. See Drouin, Jonathan

Nucky101 is Bergevin's pseudonym. The Canucks reference throws people off, but he can't fool the forum. Anyone who thinks Wahlstrom can play center @ NHL level, must either be Bergevin or has never watched Wahlstrom play.

 

[MS]

Brady Tkachuk is Colin Wilson with more of a mean streak. He'll probably have a long career as a solid middle-6 forward but has none of the x-factor and upside of his brother.

If his name was Brady Smith he'd probably be ranked in the 12-15 range.

 

[ProspectsSTC]

That is decent until you sort of remember who surrounded them on those squads. His brother played in a era of the most talented age group in St. Louis history where five of them went in the first round, though I think it was just him and Kunin in his last monster year there. He was on lines with Eichel and Matthews in the USMNTDP and then the monster line in London. I am not saying he didn't help play a big part in that success, but certainly that has a huge difference in terms of sheer number comparisons.

I think Brady is a little better skater, with slightly higher hockey IQ and superior passing. Time will tell. Matthew Tkachuk is a very good hockey player, I think that will be true of both brothers here, I actually like Brady a little more though but that is just personal opinion, time will tell.

There's no way Brady has a higher hockey IQ than his brother, Matthew's hockey IQ is actually extremely impressive

 

[kabidjan18]

There's no way Brady has a higher hockey IQ than his brother, Matthew's hockey IQ is actually extremely impressive

Try him. You'll be surprised.

 

[rt]

As a draft eligible prospect, Matt was a great passer with very high hockey IQ. His skill level was undeniable and he had fantastic production. Extremely impressive player. His skating was absolutley horrendous, however.

Brady is a fantastic skater for his size. In every other skill category he’s much less impressive than Matt in his draft year. Brady flashes all of the same skill but it’s in glimpses. Apart from being in a totally different class skating-wise, I don’t see Brady as nearly as good as Matt on any given night or shift, as a draft eligible player.

 

[Russian_fanatic]

Really like him as a prospect, he has everything you look for in a forward to be honest. I think his stock would be so much higher if he could play center, rather than being a winger. If we could play center teams would be drooling over him. His skill set would be so rare from a center position that I think he would be the clear cut #2 prospect.