Speculation: Expansion Talk

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

No need to have Datsyuk on the protected list. He will be retiring after his contract is up, next year, unless something has changed.

Maybe maybe not, It all depends if he wants to play a season in the new arena or not. I could see that possibly happening or he just might call it a career depending on how he's feeling.

 

[Reddwit]

Maybe maybe not, It all depends if he wants to play a season in the new arena or not. I could see that possibly happening or he just might call it a career depending on how he's feeling.

Doesn't matter if he retires or not. Will still be UFA.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

I think what they're trying to avoid is a situation like when Columbus or Atlanta entered the league. You have a new expansion team wallow in the basement for a decade or longer, then because they've been bad for so long the owner can't attract fans and sells the team for relocation. The team was never truly given a chance to succeed and now there's a market that might have been a success destroyed. I mean have a look at the list of the last expansion draft, the first overall pick didn't even play with Jackets.

At least this way the team will be good enough to challenge for say 25th in the league is opposed to being the laughing stock of the league.

Well if the new owner and GM can't put together a team for a decade with high picks and UFA money, then there shouldn't be a franchise to begin with.

Putting butts in the seats would not be a problem in say...Quebec.

Las Vegas? There is no fan base. Or even fans of hockey that live there.

Basically, the NHL is banking on people from California driving to watch their team play, or airfare and hotel packages with a game tossed in...over time, for free.

One of the biggest problems facing that potential franchise is the work schedules of those that live there.

Other than retired folk who are on a fixed income, the city never stops. Its very common to meet people that work at any time of day.

Also, expenses are much higher.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Doesn't matter if he retires or not. Will still be UFA.

Not necessarily, He could agree to sign a 1 year extension this summer. Though i don't see the likely happening at this stage in time.

 

[The Zermanator]

Well if the new owner and GM can't put together a team for a decade with high picks and UFA money, then there shouldn't be a franchise to begin with.

Putting butts in the seats would not be a problem in say...Quebec.

Las Vegas? There is no fan base. Or even fans of hockey that live there.

Basically, the NHL is banking on people from California driving to watch their team play, or airfare and hotel packages with a game tossed in...over time, for free.

One of the biggest problems facing that potential franchise is the work schedules of those that live there.

Other than retired folk who are on a fixed income, the city never stops. Its very common to meet people that work at any time of day.

Also, expenses are much higher.

I don't think they're necessarily expecting locals to be the economic foundation of a potential franchise. Las Vegas always has plenty of tourists looking to spend money. That's what Vegas is all about. And the NHL will be the only major sports league for the time being. Tourists will see games, and they'll likely have good opportunities for revenue from corporate sources. I imagine the boxes would likely be pretty expensive.

Just a matter of if the income from tourists and the amount of loose money sloshing around Vegas is enough to support a franchise in place of a dedicated fanbase. I think the prospects for a Vegas franchise are at least better than Phoenix/Glendale/Arizona. There's an unknown potential I suppose. It's a gamble, ironically enough.

 

[Hobnobs]

Because there is a cap floor that they have to hit. Thats why.

Expansion teams might be cap floor exempt for the first and/or second year. Which would make sense as they arent really picking amongst high earners in the NHL.

 

[Bench]

It's a gamble, ironically enough.

I was thinking the same thing. Funny turn of phrase.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Las Vegas? There is no fan base. Or even fans of hockey that live there.

Have you talked to everybody in Las Vegas and confirmed that none of them like hockey?

 

[Henkka]

Might be a better goalie available?

Why would they need a better goalie?

They need a bad goalie!

Of course expansion team is going to TANK and bad goalie with a high caphit (because they have to catch the floor) is a good starting point for it.

Howard also has lower real salary than his caphit figure on last 2 years of his contract, so it could really interest an expansion team.

Howards sucks for them for 2 seasons, and then some European findings or UFAs start coming in. You start building for a rise. But first 2 seasons? Those will be nothing but tanking.

 

[Henkka]

Las Vegas? There is no fan base. Or even fans of hockey that live there.

Is it news for you that there was an ECHL team which regularly had 3000-5000 spectators?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Vegas_Wranglers

And they already founded 11 000 or something season ticket buyers, when asking if there would be an NHL franchise.

If visiting tourists will fill half of the arena, it's pretty much full with that basic plan.

And after few years, that local fan base will start only grow. When there's no other major sports available on that City, it's almost quaranteed kids will take that hockey team as their own.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Have you talked to everybody in Las Vegas and confirmed that none of them like hockey?

Every person I talked to.

Is it news for you that there was an ECHL team which regularly had 3000-5000 spectators?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Vegas_Wranglers

And they already founded 11 000 or something season ticket buyers, when asking if there would be an NHL franchise.

If visiting tourists will fill half of the arena, it's pretty much full with that basic plan.

And after few years, that local fan base will start only grow. When there's no other major sports available on that City, it's almost quaranteed kids will take that hockey team as their own.

Yes, fully aware.

And the fans that filled that arena, most of them got free tickets. And when I say filled, I don't mean full.

And, now the team is gone.

 

[The Zermanator]

Every person I talked to.




Yes, fully aware.

And the fans that filled that arena, most of them got free tickets. And when I say filled, I don't mean full.

And, now the team is gone.

Well there's a person, or group of people, willing to put up a half billion dollar bet that a franchise can be successful in LV. I imagine they've probably done their due diligence.

And before anybody brings up Phoenix/Arizona as another desert team that failed/is failing, the economics are completely different in Vegas. Vegas is a destination city. You don't have to depend on locals for a healthy business. And a major sports team will bring in far more tourists than an ECHL team.

One thing a Vegas team will have to be careful of is their players' off hours when they're at home. Can you imagine an Evander Kane or young Seguin playing in Vegas? It could become a problem for some players. And I imagine visiting teams will have mandatory team meetings/outings/etc whenever they're in town too, by coincidence.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Expansion teams might be cap floor exempt for the first and/or second year. Which would make sense as they arent really picking amongst high earners in the NHL.

They might be exempt, but because of the percentage of cap rule in players exposed to the draft, I'm guessing teams will take the opportunity to shed some overpriced contracts. An expansion team might make the floor anyway because they won't be completely comprised of marginal NHLers.

 

[jaster]

This expansion draft may very well swing in the opposite direction relative to past expansion drafts, in terms of how good these expansion teams can be right off the bat. Given the protection criteria for the rest of the league (7F/3D/1G or 8S/1G), there will be a lot of quality players available.

I think a shrewd enough GM could build a team that can challenge for the playoffs in Season 1 (the area he'll need some luck is team chemistry, since that's impossible to predict). The NHL certainly does not want these teams tanking (bad for business), so the league will do whatever they can to prevent that, including item #1: making a very good group of players available to draft.

 

[jaster]

EDIT: 3/23 - Larkin and Russo removed from list.

Have we determined an accurate pool of Wings players who meet the expansion draft criteria? If I understand the rules that have been floated about correctly, it's looking like....

Qualified
Forwards
Zetterberg
Nyquist
Tatar
Abdelkader
Sheahan
Athanasiou
Mantha
Jurco
Pulkkinen
Franzen
Defensemen
Kronwall
Green
Ericsson
Dekeyser
Marchenko
Ouellet
Goaltenders
Howard (if he is not traded first)
Mrazek

Qualified IF re-signed
Forwards
Datsyuk
Richards
Helm
Glendening
Miller
Defensemen
Quincey
Smith
Goaltenders
Coreau


Svechnikov and Saarijarvi will be exempt.

I assumed all RFAs will be re-signed. Pending UFAs went on the second list. Several of them will almost surely not be with the team by the expansion draft.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

This expansion draft may very well swing in the opposite direction relative to past expansion drafts, in terms of how good these expansion teams can be right off the bat. Given the protection criteria for the rest of the league (7F/3D/1G or 8S/1G), there will be a lot of quality players available.

I think a shrewd enough GM could build a team that can challenge for the playoffs in Season 1 (the area he'll need some luck is team chemistry, since that's impossible to predict). The NHL certainly does not want these teams tanking (bad for business), so the league will do whatever they can to prevent that, including item #1: making a very good group of players available to draft.

I think this will be helped significantly by only bringing in Las Vegas in the first go round. Meaning a very good team will be available with just one team picking.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Why would they need a better goalie?

They need a bad goalie!

Of course expansion team is going to TANK and bad goalie with a high caphit (because they have to catch the floor) is a good starting point for it.

Howard also has lower real salary than his caphit figure on last 2 years of his contract, so it could really interest an expansion team.

Howards sucks for them for 2 seasons, and then some European findings or UFAs start coming in. You start building for a rise. But first 2 seasons? Those will be nothing but tanking.

if i'm expansion team, i'd take the best option available (not necessarily best player) instead of howard. and then overpay for terrible goalie in FA instead.

 

[Tatar]

Have we determined an accurate pool of Wings players who meet the expansion draft criteria? If I understand the rules that have been floated about correctly, it's looking like....

Qualified
Forwards
Zetterberg
Nyquist
Tatar
Abdelkader
Sheahan
Larkin
Athanasiou
Mantha
Jurco
Pulkkinen
Franzen
Defensemen
Kronwall
Green
Ericsson
Dekeyser
Marchenko
Ouellet
Russo
Goaltenders
Howard (if he is not traded first)
Mrazek

Qualified IF re-signed
Forwards
Datsyuk
Richards
Helm
Glendening
Miller
Defensemen
Quincey
Smith
Goaltenders
Coreau


Svechnikov and Saarijarvi will be exempt.

I assumed all RFAs will be re-signed. Pending UFAs went on the second list. Several of them will almost surely not be with the team by the expansion draft.

Thank you for the list! Other names id add are;

Frk
Sproul
Bertuzzi
Jensen
McCollum

Not that any of them would be protected but they still are eligible.

One crucial factor is the Red Wings would have to expose at least 25% of their salary. Which shouldn't be too difficult seeing as how most of our protected players are on ELC or bridge contracts.

My list:

Forwards

Nyquist
Tatar
Larkin
Mantha
AA
Abby
Sheahan

Defense

Green
DeKeyser
Russo

Goalie

Mrazek

I love Z and Kronwall but they'll be 37, and since only a max of 1 player (one expansion team) can be taken, I assume they'll go for Z or Kronwall and everyone else will be safe.

 

[odin1981]

I heard a rumor about the expansion yesterday. Apparently there will be slots like last time used to protect players however NMC's won't keep you safe auto protected. In the CBA NMC expliciatly say about trades/waivers not drafts. Also I heard that in addition to the slots each team will have to expose at least 25% off a teams cap to the draft.

I know jack **** about the accuracy of this. However I have a feeling anyone with under < 3 years of a bad deal will be interesting to pick up to take space while the new teams suck ass and tank for 3-5 years. So it looks like the expansion will help idiot gm's potentially shuffle around bad contracts in the expansion draft.

 

[Ingvar]

I love Z and Kronwall but they'll be 37, and since only a max of 1 player (one expansion team) can be taken, I assume they'll go for Z or Kronwall and everyone else will be safe.

You DON'T leave Zetterberg unprotected. Suppose an expansion team takes him. After 17-18 he decides that he's earned enough and 5m$ over 3 years before taxes is not worth wasting his body playing for a bottom-dweller. Then he retires and Wings suffer crushing 4m$ cap recapture penalty for these 3 years. 5m$ for 2 years if it happens after 18-19. AND we lose our 1st/2nd line center.

 

[jaster]

Yeah, even if people want Zetterberg/Kronwall left unprotected, it is not realistic that it happens.

 

[Tatar]

You DON'T leave Zetterberg unprotected. Suppose an expansion team takes him. After 17-18 he decides that he's earned enough and 5m$ over 3 years before taxes is not worth wasting his body playing for a bottom-dweller. Then he retires and Wings suffer crushing 4m$ cap recapture penalty for these 3 years. 5m$ for 2 years if it happens after 18-19. AND we lose our 1st/2nd line center.

As far as I'm aware, unprotected drafted players and their contracts become the property of the expansion team. If Zetterberg we drafted and were to retire, that cap penalty would have no effect on us as the contract was moved when he was drafted.

I'm aware it's unlikely Z and Kronner don't get protected, I just hope loyalty doesn't cost us a solid prospect

 

[Hammettf2b]

I leave Abby and Howard unprotected and call it a day.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I heard a rumor about the expansion yesterday. Apparently there will be slots like last time used to protect players however NMC's won't keep you safe auto protected. In the CBA NMC expliciatly say about trades/waivers not drafts. Also I heard that in addition to the slots each team will have to expose at least 25% off a teams cap to the draft.

I know jack **** about the accuracy of this. However I have a feeling anyone with under < 3 years of a bad deal will be interesting to pick up to take space while the new teams suck ass and tank for 3-5 years. So it looks like the expansion will help idiot gm's potentially shuffle around bad contracts in the expansion draft.

It sounds like they haven't figured out how NMC's will be handled because they need to discuss it with the NHLPA. As for the rest, you're correct about what they've discussed so far.

Teams will have two options in who they protect: either they safeguard seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie; or they protect eight skaters (whether they're defensemen or forwards) and one goalie.

First- and second-year pros -- including those playing pro hockey at any level -- will be exempt from the expansion draft. But if they're entering their third year of pro hockey, they're no longer exempt. Teams would have to either protect them or expose them.

Unsigned draft picks (think college or European players) are exempt from the expansion draft for two years from their draft year but not in Year 3, so teams will have to either rush to sign those guys or simply expose them in the expansion draft.

The total salaries for the players made available by each team in the expansion draft must be at least 25 percent of the previous season's payroll for that team. Daly explained: "The other variation that makes this expansion draft different is we would contemplate having some thresholds based on salary to make sure that the expansion club can be competitive based on the ranges we have in the CBA. Teams would have some obligation to expose a level of salary. And in terms of drafting players, teams would have to draft a certain threshold of salary."

As for the NMC's:

Now, what remains undetermined at this juncture is one whale of a wild-card: What happens with all those NHL players with no-movement clauses?

"I don't think it's that complicated, but it's an issue that hasn't been resolved in terms of how we intend to treat that," Daly said. "It's something that we're going to have to have a discussion [about] with the players' association."

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14987657/nhl-gms-preview-potential-expansion-draft-rules

 

[FlashyG]

As far as I'm aware, unprotected drafted players and their contracts become the property of the expansion team. If Zetterberg we drafted and were to retire, that cap penalty would have no effect on us as the contract was moved when he was drafted.

I'm aware it's unlikely Z and Kronner don't get protected, I just hope loyalty doesn't cost us a solid prospect

I don't think it matters how the contract was moved, or that it was moved.

The recapture penalty goes to the team or teams that benefited from a lower cap hit than his actual salary.

In Z's case the Wings would still be on the hook for the 10+ million they've saved on his deal so far.