Speculation: Expansion Talk

[obey86]

Does Kronwall have potential recapture as well?

 

[jaster]

This is hogwash. Old, fast declining players, with "leadership ability" are replaced all the time in every single sport and the teams survive just fine. Typically, the teams that find themselves in the most trouble are the ones who pay for past performance and "leadership abilities" instead of paying for what that player actually brings to the team on the ice/court/field/etc at the present time.

Using your same logic,

I ended your quote at this point because the text that followed started with a strawman and then went down the fallacy rabbit hole. It utterly failed to apply my logic, and none of it was relevant to my post. (And, as an aside, if you want to assert that you need to be in the Wings locker room to confirm or deny that Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Kronwall are significantly more important leaders than Abdelkader, Ericsson, and Howard.... well, you're either being dishonest or are naive).

As for the above quote....

"Every single sport." I'm compelled to speak from personal experience on this point. I've been a competitive hockey and baseball player. And while I can't speak as accurately about other team sports, I know that not every team sport is comparable to hockey in terms of leadership. Leadership/experience/culture is important in baseball.... It is unequivocally more important in hockey, in terms of cultivating success. And that follows, when you consider how much more intimate a sport hockey is, relative to baseball (the current White Sox drama regarding Adam Laroche comes to mind.... that just wouldn't happen in hockey, no way no how). There's something about physical contact and team interaction that matters when it comes to teammates rubbing off on each other. Hockey demands personal interaction at a level most other sports do not. In sum, 'every other sport' just doesn't matter in this case. They are irrelevant.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Does Kronwall have potential recapture as well?

No... His contract was not an example of this. Pretty even across the years, have never heard it mentioned as a potential recapture contract.

 

[InjuredChoker]

No... His contract was not an example of this. Pretty even across the years, have never heard it mentioned as a potential recapture contract.

he does but it's not as big as with Z.

about 2 mil for 2 seasons if he retires 2 years early (in 2 seasons). 3 mil for one season if he retires final year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/niklas-kronwall

 

[jaster]

Where did he say that you had to use the same logic for those players?

Why wouldn't you? They provide leadership, experience, and team continuity as well. That was his entire argument about why Zetterberg needs to be kept at all costs.

Since you're insistent on repeating your fallacies, I'll address:

1) No where did I say that Zetterberg needs to be kept at all costs. Please try to stick to what is written, instead of falling back on more strawmen.

2) Abdelkader, Ericsson, and Howard do not provide as much leadership, experience, and team continuity as Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Kronwall. Not even close. Can we put that comparison to bed? Or do we need to further flesh out the blatantly obvious differences?

Exactly. One player is the captain and is an avowed leader with ridiculous hockey IQ who is still one of the most productive players even as a shell of himself and the others are guys who got long term deals

Justin Abdelkader, who everyone hates, has nearly as many points as Zetterberg does. Let's not pretend that Zetterberg's production is on a different level. As he becomes older, he's going to get slower and worse as well.

Points ≠ Leadership

If that's not obvious to you, you should probably get off the topic.

 

[Reddwit]

Name recognition would be big for a team looking to establish an identity. And that's without even acknowledging that Z, is still a good player.

More importantly, I am waiting for your list of protected players. Let's see your list of 7 forwards who are more important than Zetterberg, keeping in mind that Larkin is automatic and Pavel, Helm, Richards and Glendening have expiring contracts so they do not require protection either.

I don't think Zetterberg still has the name recognition that Wings fans think he does. And that will only get worse after next season. We've already gotten to the point where he is pretty much an afterthought if not all together forgotten when discussing the league's best centers or two-way players. This isn't a Mats Sundin situation where the guy is still putting up 70+ points. Its more like a Brad Richards situation.

Second, Zetterberg doesn't just look mediocre compared to last season - he looks mediocre compared to the first half of this season. At the rate his performance is depreciating, there is no way of knowing what he will look like at the end of next season. I don't care what his name is or the length of his contract, no team is going to want a $6M forward coming off back-to-back 40 point seasons.

And to that point, the "name 7 guys better than him" is irrelevant. Athanasiou went from a B-level prospect to looking like a kid who could sit comfortably in your top six while bringing speed and size. 6 months ago, he isn't on the list. Today, he is. Who knows what happens if a guy like Russo or Bertuzzi has a monster first half in the AHL and proceeds to look dynamite in his first NHL taste, a la Athanasiou? All of a sudden, you've got another guy you probably want to add to the list.

Anyway, I don't why some are arguing that Zetterberg shouldn't be protected because it would be a chance to get rid of him. In my eyes, the argument is that you don't protect him because you don't need to.

As for the recapture issue, the core problem would be just as relevant to the team bringing on Zetterberg. IF Hank retired prematurely - which he would surely have more incentive to do as a member of the expansion team after spending his whole career with Detroit - the expansion team would still be "billed" for Hannk's pre-retirement and they would face a year of recapture themselves due to the fact that Hank still has a "cap advantage" through the 17/18 season.

All in all, I don't see the point of a team trading for Hank considering his age + production + contract + health + potential for early retirement (and thus a $1M recapture penalty to boot).

 

[jaster]

I'd be very disappointed if we lost a quality player just so we could protect guys at the end of the line like Zetterberg and Kronwall just for sentimentality and loyalty. These are the types of tough business choices the Wings have avoided making for years that has led to the current situation. You have to protect the players who can help you for the next decade, not the ones who did in the last one.

It wouldn't be for sentimentality and loyalty, that old trope is tiring. Do people honestly believe that the front office chooses to favor "sentimentality and loyalty" over quality players? Can't you guys at least admit that the organization values factors such as leadership/experience/culture more than you do? Do we really have to make up this fantasy world where the front office is more incompetent than the 7-year-old on the playground who can't tie his shoes and eats his own boogers? That's hyperbole, but I presume it drives my point home.

 

[obey86]

I ended your quote at this point because the text that followed started with a strawman and then went down the fallacy rabbit hole. It utterly failed to apply my logic, and none of it was relevant to my post. (And, as an aside, if you want to assert that you need to be in the Wings locker room to confirm or deny that Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Kronwall are significantly more important leaders than Abdelkader, Ericsson, and Howard.... well, you're either being dishonest or are naive).

As for the above quote....

"Every single sport." I'm compelled to speak from personal experience on this point. I've been a competitive hockey and baseball player. And while I can't speak as accurately about other team sports, I know that not every team sport is comparable to hockey in terms of leadership. Leadership/experience/culture is important in baseball.... It is unequivocally more important in hockey, in terms of cultivating success. And that follows, when you consider how much more intimate a sport hockey is, relative to baseball (the current White Sox drama regarding Adam Laroche comes to mind.... that just wouldn't happen in hockey, no way no how). There's something about physical contact and team interaction that matters when it comes to teammates rubbing off on each other. Hockey demands personal interaction at a level most other sports do not. In sum, 'every other sport' just doesn't matter in this case. They are irrelevant.

Yeah, there has never been any drama in a hockey locker room. only ever happens in baseball.

lol, anyways, way to obfuscate my point. Ignore the other sports then if that makes you feel better. Plenty of teams in the NHL have moved on from their captains and survived just fine.

 

[8snake]

Yeah, there has never been any drama in a hockey locker room. only ever happens in baseball.

lol, anyways, way to obfuscate my point. Ignore the other sports then if that makes you feel better. Plenty of teams in the NHL have moved on from their captains and survived just fine.

I agree with a lot of your points but you have to realize this is a Red Wings board and Kronwall and Hank are two of the 3 most popular players. For some fans it's hard to let go. Watching this game right now it's obvious to anyone with two eyes Kronwall is close to done and Hank is struggling to get anything going offensively on his own. I just hope whether we get in the playoffs or not this is the last year we tread water with 3 players over 35 being the focal point of this team and start cutting ice time and moving Kronwall and Zetterberg into support roles until they decide to retire if Illitch wants them to end their careers here.

 

[Reddwit]

No... His contract was not an example of this. Pretty even across the years, have never heard it mentioned as a potential recapture contract.

Yeah, like InjuredChoker said, it counts.

Basically any contract that is 7 or more years in length where the team receives ANY "cap advantage" in any given year is subject to recapture if a player retires prematurely.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

he does but it's not as big as with Z.

about 2 mil for 2 seasons if he retires 2 years early (in 2 seasons). 3 mil for one season if he retires final year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/niklas-kronwall

Yeah, like InjuredChoker said, it counts.

Basically any contract that is 7 or more years in length where the team receives ANY "cap advantage" in any given year is subject to recapture if a player retires prematurely.

Learn something new everyday. I thought he wasn't one, thanks for the insight. I really don't think his should be eligible but it is what it is. I don't think it was near what we were doing with Hank or Franzen.

 

[FissionFire]

It wouldn't be for sentimentality and loyalty, that old trope is tiring. Do people honestly believe that the front office chooses to favor "sentimentality and loyalty" over quality players? Can't you guys at least admit that the organization values factors such as leadership/experience/culture more than you do? Do we really have to make up this fantasy world where the front office is more incompetent than the 7-year-old on the playground who can't tie his shoes and eats his own boogers? That's hyperbole, but I presume it drives my point home.

That argument could be a very good point of debate, at least until Dan Cleary is brought up to completely invalidate everything you said. Valuing those other factors over and above actual playing ability is definitely a red flag crying for a reevaluation of priorities.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Learn something new everyday. I thought he wasn't one, thanks for the insight. I really don't think his should be eligible but it is what it is. I don't think it was near what we were doing with Hank or Franzen.

Frankly, any contracts after the Hossa one... Or at the very least the rejected Kovalchuk one should face problems with recapture. It wasn't until those deals that it became clear the NHL was going to do something stupid in relation to the CBA to viciously close the loophole. Especially after Kovalchuk's. You had to know that contract style was bad then.

It just bugs me that they retroactively ****ed the Wings over using the rules within the CBA.

 

[jaster]

Yeah, there has never been any drama in a hockey locker room. only ever happens in baseball.

No one said that. It appears you have again mis-characterized what I said

lol, anyways, way to obfuscate my point. Ignore the other sports then if that makes you feel better. Plenty of teams in the NHL have moved on from their captains and survived just fine.

Obfuscated? I simply made a counter-point. Anyway... how many of those teams had as much long-term success as the Wings have over the last 25 years? It's a lot easier to walk away from your leadership when you aren't on a 24-season playoff streak and your leaders didn't grow up under previous generations of team leaders, all of whom are winners.

Again, you can disagree with the amount of value that an organization puts on those qualities, but you should at least recognize that that's what they are doing. It's not simply a picture of blind loyalty and sentimentality that so often gets painted on this forum.

 

[obey86]

No one said that. It appears you have again mis-characterized what I said




Obfuscated? I simply made a counter-point. Anyway... how many of those teams had as much long-term success as the Wings have over the last 25 years? It's a lot easier to walk away from your leadership when you aren't on a 24-season playoff streak and your leaders didn't grow up under previous generations of team leaders, all of whom are winners.

Again, you can disagree with the amount of value that an organization puts on those qualities, but you should at least recognize that that's what they are doing. It's not simply a picture of blind loyalty and sentimentality that so often gets painted on this forum.

"the current White Sox drama regarding Adam Laroche comes to mind.... that just wouldn't happen in hockey, no way no how"

Drama in a hockey locker room has happened previously.....so to say "it would never happen in hockey" is just......false......when it has happened before.


......

24 year playoff streak? Who gives a crap. Are Lidstrom, Yzerman, Shanahan coming back to help the Wings compete for Stanley Cups? No. Then who cares? This is a bubble team that will likely miss the playoffs this season. The previous 20whatever years don't matter. Right now, this team stinks and Z is "leading" them to missing the playoffs. Congrats! Maybe if he's such a "leader" he should go to Blashill and say that he's hurting the team by being played so much. That's what a real leader would do. Same with Kronwall.

 

[jaster]

That argument could be a very good point of debate, at least until Dan Cleary is brought up to completely invalidate everything you said. Valuing those other factors over and above actual playing ability is definitely a red flag crying for a reevaluation of priorities.

The Wings screwed up with Cleary, there's no denying that. But one mistake by the Wings does not invalidate my point that there are qualities the Wings value more than many fans. And instead of identifying that difference in value, or even recognizing those qualities at all, fans are often more likely to paint this picture of bumbling incompetence.... because it's easier to discredit a management group with 4 Stanley Cups and a 24-season playoff streak that way. But it's still intellectually dishonest.

 

[obey86]

The Wings screwed up with Cleary, there's no denying that. But one mistake by the Wings does not invalidate my point that there are qualities the Wings value more than many fans. And instead of identifying that difference in value, or even recognizing those qualities at all, fans are often more likely to paint this picture of bumbling incompetence.... because it's easier to discredit a management group with 4 Stanley Cups and a 24-season playoff streak that way. But it's still intellectually dishonest.

Just because the Wings value certain player qualities (like leadership or whatever) more than the typical fan does, doesn't necessarily mean the Wings are correct when it comes to those evaluations and their effect on team performance.

 

[jaster]

"the current White Sox drama regarding Adam Laroche comes to mind.... that just wouldn't happen in hockey, no way no how"

Drama in a hockey locker room has happened previously.....so to say "it would never happen in hockey" is just......false......when it has happened before.

C'mon, obviously I did not mean any drama at all. I meant the type of drama that has gone on on the south side of Chicago.

24 year playoff streak? Who gives a crap. Are Lidstrom, Yzerman, Shanahan coming back to help the Wings compete for Stanley Cups? No. Then who cares? This is a bubble team that will likely miss the playoffs this season. The previous 20whatever years don't matter. Right now, this team stinks and Z is "leading" them to missing the playoffs. Congrats! Maybe if he's such a "leader" he should go to Blashill and say that he's hurting the team by being played so much. That's what a real leader would do. Same with Kronwall.

Who cares? Who gives a crap? Well, the Wings do, that's my whole point. Winning culture. Players who know how to win. Passing that knowledge down to rookies. Setting the example. These are real things that are valued by organizations, and will always be valued. You clearly don't see it, don't want to see it, whatever. But that's where the organization is coming from, and that's where some fans are coming from. And just because the Wings are struggling this season doesn't mean all that institutional knowledge has disappeared. It's still there, and still has value.

 

[jaster]

Just because the Wings value certain player qualities (like leadership or whatever) more than the typical fan does, doesn't necessarily mean the Wings are correct when it comes to those evaluations and their effect on team performance.

On that we can agree. No person and no organization is perfect. The Wings were wrong with Cleary. It happens. But the Wings have a proven track record with these things. They grew Yzerman into a leader, and then turned that into Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and others. They turned it into multiple Stanley Cups. They've earned some rope in my eyes. More than enough rope for me to trust them on Zetterberg and Kronwall for the time being.

 

[Henkka]

Interesting comparison:

Stephen Weiss at season 2014-15:
52 games, 9+16=25p, (plusminus -2)
0.48 points per game
4.9M caphit - was bought out last summer

Valtteri Filppula at season 2015-16:
69 games, 7+21=28p, (team worst -6 plusminus)
0.41 points per game
5.0M caphit for 2 more seasons


Looks like Yzerman got only 2 good years from Filppula, and now that contract will be a headache, when Kucherov is gonna get 4-5M payrise and Stammer is also gonna get paid.

Or probably loses Stammer.

 

[chances14]

according to friedman, any player completing their sophomore season next year will be exempt from 2017 expansion draft

In the aftermath of the GM meetings, I admitted to being confused about players who will be completing their sophomore professional seasons — Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, William Nylander, etc. — and their eligibility for a potential June 2017 expansion draft. In asking for clarification, I was told, “Players who have only earned two years of pro service are second-year pros and are exempt.” So there you go. Unless the framework is changed, teams (and their fans) need not worry.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-clearing-expansion-draft-questions/

 

[jaster]

according to friedman, any player completing their sophomore season next year will be exempt from 2017 expansion draft



http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-clearing-expansion-draft-questions/

Ok, so from the Wings' POV, that clarification pertains to just Larkin and Russo I believe, yes? Those two guys are exempt. Anyone else I'm forgetting?

 

[Laser Rayzor]

Ok, so from the Wings' POV, that clarification pertains to just Larkin and Russo I believe, yes? Those two guys are exempt. Anyone else I'm forgetting?

I wonder if that'll cover Bertuzzi as well, he played 2 regular season games in 2014-15 in the AHL (and 14 in the playoffs) would this be his 1st or second pro year?

 

[InjuredChoker]

I wonder if that'll cover Bertuzzi as well, he played 2 regular season games in 2014-15 in the AHL (and 14 in the playoffs) would this be his 1st or second pro year?

it depends on what would count as professional season.

 

[SirloinUB]

On that we can agree. No person and no organization is perfect. The Wings were wrong with Cleary. It happens. But the Wings have a proven track record with these things. They grew Yzerman into a leader, and then turned that into Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and others. They turned it into multiple Stanley Cups. They've earned some rope in my eyes. More than enough rope for me to trust them on Zetterberg and Kronwall for the time being.

Exactly, some of the issues with this team and its decisions over the last 5 years leave me head scratching as much as anyone else. However, given all of the success the Front office has had in various roles, they have earned the right to see their plan through, for better or worse.