Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

[The Podium]

I took a look at all the proposed exposed lists, seems like Seattle will be hurting for forwards so we may be more likely to lose Kerfoot, Engvall or, ideally, UFA Hyman.

I’d go:
Marner
Matthews
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

 

[Dreakmur]

And losing a player in the expansion draft is not "losing them for nothing". It might not be the value some players are worth, some of these posts about exposing Rielly and Tavares are... wow guys... but it's a roster job that has to be done.

You lose a player and gain cap space. Depending on the player, we may even be able to upgrade with the same money.

 

[Insidefi]

Dermott should have been trade instead of Lehtonen.

Would be a waste to lose him for nothing.

Two things. First off, Lehtonen is a UFA at the end of the year, so that wouldn’t have helped us. Secondly, every team loses a player so we will be losing a “player for nothing” regardless. You make it sound like it’s bad asset management but that is an unavoidable part of the expansion draft and unfortunately the player the Leafs will lose this go around will have more value, but that’s a result of having a better team.

 

[Ashdown2]

I took a look at all the proposed exposed lists, seems like Seattle will be hurting for forwards so we may be more likely to lose Kerfoot, Engvall or, ideally, UFA Hyman.

I’d go:
Marner
Matthews
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

i dont think there is any other doubt that this is exactly the plan.

 

[zeke]

You’re probably right.....was hoping it was a very captain thing to do to help the team

Losing Tavares doesn't help the team.

And it would be Seattle's dream come true to start their franchise with a stud #1C.

 

[HC7]

Two things. First off, Lehtonen is a UFA at the end of the year, so that wouldn’t have helped us. Secondly, every team loses a player so we will be losing a “player for nothing” regardless. You make it sound like it’s bad asset management but that is an unavoidable part of the expansion draft and unfortunately the player the Leafs will lose this go around will have more value, but that’s a result of having a better team.

I'd rather lose Mikheyev or Kerfoot than Dermott.

 

[Buds17]

The current situation seems to lend itself best to an 8 and 1.

Tavares
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

 

[TML Dynasty]

Losing Tavares doesn't help the team.

And it would be Seattle's dream come true to start their franchise with a stud #1C.

I guess that should’ve been a question....I didn’t know if they’d take him or not. Pretty heavy contract, on a....IMO....declining player.

 

[Insidefi]

I'd rather lose Mikheyev or Kerfoot than Dermott.

That is fair but we do have to expose a defensemen, and it looks like Dermott will be the one. We could "bribe" Seattle to take someone else, but then we would actually be losing an unnecessary asset then.

 

[jaybo21]

honestly, If we loose Kerfoot or Dermott, I don't think it'll be a big loss for Toronto. Dermott doesn't seem to be in the long term plans with Lilly or Sandin in the program and Kerfoot just seems to be someone that we can replace for a lot less. He is a good player but not a player that I would pay that much for. Would rather lose Kerfoot but if Dermott goes.....so be it.

 

[cupcrazyman]

We are gonna lose Dermott most likely. Will suck but not the end of the world.

It's actually easy, OP nailed it. The Leafs will lose a useful player in Kerfoot, Dermott or even upcoming UFA Hyman but that's how it goes.

The good thing for us is Hyman is an UFA & not under contract next season so he can't be plucked off of our roster.
Just resign him after the expansion draft.

 

[budzz]

Worth taking a look back at the Vegas expansion draft for an idea of some of the prices to keep the asset you want....

Trades[edit]

In return for agreeing to select certain unprotected players, the Golden Knights were granted concessions by other franchises.

• The Buffalo Sabres traded their sixth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting William Carrier.[13]
• The Florida Panthers traded Reilly Smith in exchange for Vegas selecting Jonathan Marchessault and a fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[14]
• The Carolina Hurricanes traded Boston's fifth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) in exchange for Vegas selecting Connor Brickley.[15]
• The Winnipeg Jets traded their first-round pick (13th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and a third-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Chris Thorburn and Columbus' first-round pick (24th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired by Vegas).[16]
• The Tampa Bay Lightning traded their second-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, Pittsburgh's fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) and Nikita Gusev in exchange for Vegas selecting Jason Garrison.[17]
• The New York Islanders traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Mikhail Grabovski and Jake Bischoff in exchange for Vegas selecting Jean-Francois Berube.[18]
• The Anaheim Ducks traded Shea Theodore in exchange for Vegas selecting Clayton Stoner.[19]
• The Minnesota Wild traded Alex Tuch in exchange for Vegas selecting Erik Haula and a conditional third-round pick in the 2017 or 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[20]
• The Columbus Blue Jackets traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft and David Clarkson in exchange for Vegas selecting William Karlsson.[21]
• The Pittsburgh Penguins traded their second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Marc-Andre Fleury.[22]

Post-draft[edit]

Not all players selected by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft would remain with the team. Some players were traded in the following days, some the day after:

• Trevor van Riemsdyk and a seventh-round pick in 2018 were traded to Carolina for Pittsburgh's second-round pick in 2017.[23]
• David Schlemko was traded to Montreal for a fifth-round pick in 2019.[24]
• Marc Methot was traded to Dallas for Dylan Ferguson and a second-round pick in 2020.[25]
• Alexei Emelin was traded to Nashville for a third-round pick in 2018.[26]
• Calvin Pickard was traded to Toronto for a sixth-round draft pick in 2018 and Tobias Lindberg.[27]

 

[Nylanderthal]

Protect 4 D, let them choose between Dermott and Kerfoot.

If they take Dermott; Sandin and Liljegren have a pretty easy path to the bottom pair. If they take Kerfoot then I guess we're looking for a C.

No need to galaxy brain it. Lose the decent player and move on. If they want to sign Freddy or some other UFA then even better.

This appears to be the only logical route. Teams like Columbus Minny and Florida really ate shit last time trying to be cute with their expansion needs.
Make your list, at the end of the day one guys out the door

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Worth taking a look back at the Vegas expansion draft for an idea of some of the prices to keep the asset you want....

Trades[edit]

In return for agreeing to select certain unprotected players, the Golden Knights were granted concessions by other franchises.

• The Buffalo Sabres traded their sixth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting William Carrier.[13]
• The Florida Panthers traded Reilly Smith in exchange for Vegas selecting Jonathan Marchessault and a fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[14]
• The Carolina Hurricanes traded Boston's fifth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) in exchange for Vegas selecting Connor Brickley.[15]
• The Winnipeg Jets traded their first-round pick (13th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and a third-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Chris Thorburn and Columbus' first-round pick (24th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired by Vegas).[16]
• The Tampa Bay Lightning traded their second-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, Pittsburgh's fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) and Nikita Gusev in exchange for Vegas selecting Jason Garrison.[17]
• The New York Islanders traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Mikhail Grabovski and Jake Bischoff in exchange for Vegas selecting Jean-Francois Berube.[18]
• The Anaheim Ducks traded Shea Theodore in exchange for Vegas selecting Clayton Stoner.[19]
• The Minnesota Wild traded Alex Tuch in exchange for Vegas selecting Erik Haula and a conditional third-round pick in the 2017 or 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[20]
• The Columbus Blue Jackets traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft and David Clarkson in exchange for Vegas selecting William Karlsson.[21]
• The Pittsburgh Penguins traded their second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Marc-Andre Fleury.[22]

Post-draft[edit]

Not all players selected by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft would remain with the team. Some players were traded in the following days, some the day after:

• Trevor van Riemsdyk and a seventh-round pick in 2018 were traded to Carolina for Pittsburgh's second-round pick in 2017.[23]
• David Schlemko was traded to Montreal for a fifth-round pick in 2019.[24]
• Marc Methot was traded to Dallas for Dylan Ferguson and a second-round pick in 2020.[25]
• Alexei Emelin was traded to Nashville for a third-round pick in 2018.[26]
• Calvin Pickard was traded to Toronto for a sixth-round draft pick in 2018 and Tobias Lindberg.[27]

So the lesson here is do not overpay to protect middle of the lineup players.

Pittsburgh, Anaheim, and Florida got burned hard by overthinking it.

 

[PromisedLand]

Heres the expansion draft calculator.

Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Dependent on what happens at the deadline, I think im protecting 4F-4D instead of 7F-3D in the expansion draft. Holl is 100% gone if we only protect 3D (Mo, Muzz, Brodie)

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander

Rielly
Muzzin
Brodie
Holl

Campbell

There has to be some shenanigans done to meet the exposure requirements as well. If Kerfoot or Engvall gets claimed, I wont be that upset. What happens with Hyman plays a role here too.

Thanks my protection list too.

Seriously hoping we don't lose Hyman; we MUST find a way to keep Hyman

 

[Nylanderthal]

I'd rather lose Mikheyev or Kerfoot than Dermott.

Soups exempt as he will of only completed his second pro season. Same for sandin & Liljegren who had their u-19 AHL seasons not count as pro seasons.
As it stands the exposed players that meet requirements will be kerfoot Engvall dermott & hutch

 

[Nylanderthal]

So the lesson here is do not overpay to protect middle of the lineup players.

Pittsburgh, Anaheim, and Florida got burned hard by overthinking it.

Columbus and Minny too

 

[PromisedLand]

Dermott should have been trade instead of Lehtonen.

Would be a waste to lose him for nothing.

We have Sandin knocking on the door and also Lily (if we get a UFA LHD to play with him next season if Bogo isn't coming back).

I am not too stressed about losing dermott. it would suck to lose him BUT retaining him isn't that big of a priority given the cap crunch we have; dermot being a pending RFA and Hyman being a UFA

There are other important spots to worry about IMO

 

[Nylanderthal]

Thanks my protection list too.

Seriously hoping we don't lose Hyman; we MUST find a way to keep Hyman

Pretty sure Hyman will get an 8 year deal front loaded and bonus laden post XD that comes in under 4m. He’s a leaf for life and probably even transitions into the FO when his playing days end.

 

[Nylanderthal]

We have Sandin knocking on the door and also Lily (if we get a UFA LHD to play with him next season if Bogo isn't coming back).

I am not too stressed about losing dermott. it would suck to lose him BUT retaining him isn't that big of a priority given the cap crunch we have; dermot being a pending RFA and Hyman being a UFA

There are other important spots to worry about IMO

Pretty sure that without forcing Marincin in the line up down the stretch (and even then idk if he gets to the games played requirement) Dermott is the only reasonable D we can expose.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Columbus and Minny too

Wild were in a weird spot where basically evey player they protected was coming off a career year and they didn't want to lose any of their defense core. Still though the difference between Haula and Scandella wasn't a Tuch level player.

Columbus was complicated as Vegas also took Clarkson but a 1st and Karlsson to protect Wennberg was bad.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Wild were in a weird spot where basically evey player they protected was coming off a career year and they didn't want to lose any of their defense core. Still though the difference between Haula and Scandella wasn't a Tuch level player.

Columbus was complicated as Vegas also took Clarkson but a 1st and Karlsson to protect Wennberg was bad.

Regardless of the reasoning which I’m not debsting with you as those teams definitely had their reasons for their actions. Just like we would if we added another player of significance who required protection. I just feel trying to galaxy brain the situation turned out worse than just doing what’s intended... creating a list and losing a guy

 

[LeafGrief]

I guess that should’ve been a question....I didn’t know if they’d take him or not. Pretty heavy contract, on a....IMO....declining player.

There is absolutely zero doubt that Seattle would take a #1C if he was exposed, even if he's a little overpaid and 30 years old. It can be fun on Facebook or getting drunk with your Uncle and talking about Tavares having no trade value, but it's not reflected in reality by any stretch. JT's contract expires before he turns 35, he's not Carey Price or Shea Weber.

 

[McSnypsky]

Worth taking a look back at the Vegas expansion draft for an idea of some of the prices to keep the asset you want....

Trades[edit]

In return for agreeing to select certain unprotected players, the Golden Knights were granted concessions by other franchises.

• The Buffalo Sabres traded their sixth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting William Carrier.[13]
• The Florida Panthers traded Reilly Smith in exchange for Vegas selecting Jonathan Marchessault and a fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[14]
• The Carolina Hurricanes traded Boston's fifth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) in exchange for Vegas selecting Connor Brickley.[15]
• The Winnipeg Jets traded their first-round pick (13th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft and a third-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Chris Thorburn and Columbus' first-round pick (24th overall) in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired by Vegas).[16]
• The Tampa Bay Lightning traded their second-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, Pittsburgh's fourth-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft (previously acquired) and Nikita Gusev in exchange for Vegas selecting Jason Garrison.[17]
• The New York Islanders traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Mikhail Grabovski and Jake Bischoff in exchange for Vegas selecting Jean-Francois Berube.[18]
• The Anaheim Ducks traded Shea Theodore in exchange for Vegas selecting Clayton Stoner.[19]
• The Minnesota Wild traded Alex Tuch in exchange for Vegas selecting Erik Haula and a conditional third-round pick in the 2017 or 2018 NHL Entry Draft.[20]
• The Columbus Blue Jackets traded their first-round pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, a second-round pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft and David Clarkson in exchange for Vegas selecting William Karlsson.[21]
• The Pittsburgh Penguins traded their second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Vegas selecting Marc-Andre Fleury.[22]

Post-draft[edit]

Not all players selected by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft would remain with the team. Some players were traded in the following days, some the day after:

• Trevor van Riemsdyk and a seventh-round pick in 2018 were traded to Carolina for Pittsburgh's second-round pick in 2017.[23]
• David Schlemko was traded to Montreal for a fifth-round pick in 2019.[24]
• Marc Methot was traded to Dallas for Dylan Ferguson and a second-round pick in 2020.[25]
• Alexei Emelin was traded to Nashville for a third-round pick in 2018.[26]
• Calvin Pickard was traded to Toronto for a sixth-round draft pick in 2018 and Tobias Lindberg.[27]

Thanks for this was wondering what Vegas got, it seems like some of the trades to protect assets were pretty steep in price tag

 

[aingefan]

The standard 4/4/Campbell is my preference.
I prefer losing Dermott or Kerfoot over the other guys (Engvall, Anderson and all).