HF Habs: Expansion Draft 2021 (Part 2)

[Archijerej]

How do you "show respect" to Weber by losing one of his key partners????

"We repect you so much Shea, that you will have to play 32 minutes per game in next year's playoffs."

You realize Ben Chiarot can be replaced? Or do we intend to just sit on all those picks and prospects the way we did with Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi and McCarron?

You think Chiarot is an adequate partner for a 36 years old Weber in an 82 games regular season? I thought they were often substandard this year. I like Big Ben, but come on.

 

[Sorinth]

We don't see it the same. I would protect Chiarot over Edmundson. Post 801 gives you some further context into both the regular season and playoffs and what each of them are valued at.

Chiarot > Edmundson. It's not massive differences but the more I dig, the more I think Chiarot

Hits and blocked shots are often a sign that the puck is in the defensive zone. If you look at possession numbers Edmundson is miles ahead of Chiarot both regular season and playoffs, and you can even look into the pairings themselves to remove the whole Petry vs Weber effect.

Here's the CF% by pairing

with Gustafsson
Edmundson was 61.36%
Chiarot was 44.83%

with Romanov
Edmundson was 57.14%
Chiarot was 23.53%

with Kulak
Edmundson was 53.16%
Chiarot was 42.39%

with Merrill
Edmundson was 38.18%
Chiarot was 37.74%

with Petry
Edmundson was 48.72%
Chiarot was 38.33%

with Weber
Edmundson was 45.00%
Chiarot was 46.42%

The only pairings it was even close was Merrill and Weber, every other pairing Edmundson was vastly superior and keeping pucks from being directed towards the net. And on top of that Edmundson started a larger % of his shifts in the defensive zone 62.62% vs Chiarots 57.14%. So the numbers are even skewed against Edmundson, the one pairing Chiarot was ahead of Edmundson when you look at the defensive zone starts Edmundson was at 100% with Weber whereas Chiarot was at 61.29%.

There's really no comparison, Edmundson was superior to Chiarot and it's not really all that close. Chiarot's seemingly was more physical side because he would spend more time hemmed in the defensive zone and not because he is superior physical or defensive player.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I doubt MB would show disrespect by not protecting Weber. So, Chiarot us the only option. If he is taken by Seattle, that would give Romanov a top four job. Unless MB can trade for a very good one like Girard.

I agree that Petry and Weber will be protected. The conversation is about Edmundson vs Chiarot. I see that most think Edmundson but I'm protecting Chiarot. Reasons are in previous posts

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sorry wasn’t targeted at your question...

To answer your question: I’ll take Edmundson being 3-years younger @ cost certainty vs extending Chiarot at age 31.

Besides every team can only lose 1-player, and Habs at all costs cannot afford to lose Allen. Gimme Chiarot’s $3.5M cap savings to use to address an area of weakness.

For giggles: say Chiarot’s spot is replaced by Dunn for the same cap hit? Are the Habs a better team, I would say yes for regular season

For all we know, one of Allen or Drouin gets taken by Seattle. However, we don't see the same between who we should protect between Edmundson or Chiarot. It's all good and I find it an interesting decision

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hits and blocked shots are often a sign that the puck is in the defensive zone. If you look at possession numbers Edmundson is miles ahead of Chiarot both regular season and playoffs, and you can even look into the pairings themselves to remove the whole Petry vs Weber effect.

Here's the CF% by pairing

with Gustafsson
Edmundson was 61.36%
Chiarot was 44.83%

with Romanov
Edmundson was 57.14%
Chiarot was 23.53%

with Kulak
Edmundson was 53.16%
Chiarot was 42.39%

with Merrill
Edmundson was 38.18%
Chiarot was 37.74%

with Petry
Edmundson was 48.72%
Chiarot was 38.33%

with Weber
Edmundson was 45.00%
Chiarot was 46.42%

The only pairings it was even close was Merrill and Weber, every other pairing Edmundson was vastly superior and keeping pucks from being directed towards the net. And on top of that Edmundson started a larger % of his shifts in the defensive zone 62.62% vs Chiarots 57.14%. So the numbers are even skewed against Edmundson, the one pairing Chiarot was ahead of Edmundson when you look at the defensive zone starts Edmundson was at 100% with Weber whereas Chiarot was at 61.29%.

There's really no comparison, Edmundson was superior to Chiarot and it's not really all that close. Chiarot's seemingly was more physical side because he would spend more time hemmed in the defensive zone and not because he is superior physical or defensive player.

I believe you got also post the defensive vs offensive zone starts as well.

Regardless, I understand how some think Edmundson. I value him too. But I'm protecting Chiarot. I like how he steps up in the playoffs. And there are other reasons as well posted in previous posts. You don't have to agree. For all we know, one of Allen or Drouin gets taken

 

[Sorinth]

I believe you got also post the defensive vs offensive zone starts as well.

Regardless, I understand how some think Edmundson. I value him too. But I'm protecting Chiarot. I like how he steps up in the playoffs. And there are other reasons as well posted in previous posts. You don't have to agree. For all we know, one of Allen or Drouin gets taken

I did post the defensive zone start %, it's in the second to last paragraph. Hint: Edmundson starts in the D zone more then Chiarot.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You realize Ben Chiarot can be replaced? Or do we intend to just sit on all those picks and prospects the way we did with Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi and McCarron?

You think Chiarot is an adequate partner for a 36 years old Weber in an 82 games regular season? I thought they were often substandard this year. I like Big Ben, but come on.

I think Chiarot is very underrated by fans. I also feel the Habs need to be careful with the offensive approach. We clearly need a puck mover on our back end and a PP guy. That guy needs to be someone who can't be taken advantage of in our own end. Difficult to acquire but I have no doubt we will try.

Chiarot vs Edmundson is the discussion. I value both but I feel Edmundson's term blocks Romanov if we were to get that offensive puck mover we are searching for. Not going to make a big deal about it but cap space for 22/23 is something I'm trying to dig into. I believe it's a critical point with our cap space management

 

[calder candidate]

You realize Ben Chiarot can be replaced? Or do we intend to just sit on all those picks and prospects the way we did with Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi and McCarron?

You think Chiarot is an adequate partner for a 36 years old Weber in an 82 games regular season? I thought they were often substandard this year. I like Big Ben, but come on.

The issue with the Chariot/Weber being often substandard is Weber… because he is too slow, losing battle and unable to handle or pass the puck. Chariot isn’t perfect but he isn’t the one holding Weber back. Chariot has his issues but look at where he would fit on most depth chart, pretty sure he is #4 or better on most team which isn’t irreplaceable but still valuable and not cheap or easy to acquire…

 

[Habs Halifax]

I did post the defensive zone start %, it's in the second to last paragraph. Hint: Edmundson starts in the D zone more then Chiarot.

At the end of the day, they are close and provide similar value IMO. We can nit pick those areas and end up nowhere. Like I said, I have other factors at play. One area is cap space management for the 22/23 season and if we were to add the offensive puck mover we are after, I believe Edmundson's term blocks Romanov from the top 4D and if we were able to fit Edmundson on the bottom pairing I'd be ok with that but I am not sure if we have the cap room when Suzuki's contract is up.

It's about providing flexibility more than being obsessed with Chiarot over Edmundson. I was OK with either until I started to dig into cap challenges for the 22/23 season and also about Romanov's growth. Then think about if we add a offensive guy on LD. That complicates things even further. It may or may not be a problem but I rather side on the conservative side in terms of cap management and flat cap years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The issue with the Chariot/Weber being often substandard is Weber… because he is too slow, losing battle and unable to handle or pass the puck. Chariot isn’t perfect but he isn’t the one holding Weber back. Chariot has his issues but look at where he would fit on most depth chart, pretty sure he is #4 or better on most team which isn’t irreplaceable but still valuable and not cheap or easy to acquire…

Considering that Petry > Weber at this stage, I feel Chiarot is offering more to protect Weber than Edmundson is to protect Weber. We agree on Chiarot's impact

Rather keep all 4 but if we add a offensive LD and we want Romanov to play top 4D after next year, I feel Edmundson becomes the guy that blocks him.

 

[Archijerej]

The issue with the Chariot/Weber being often substandard is Weber… because he is too slow, losing battle and unable to handle or pass the puck. Chariot isn’t perfect but he isn’t the one holding Weber back. Chariot has his issues but look at where he would fit on most depth chart, pretty sure he is #4 or better on most team which isn’t irreplaceable but still valuable and not cheap or easy to acquire…

Yes, of course. Ben Chiarot's a better player than Shea Weber .

 

[Sterling Archer]

Here’s my list. Side deal with Danault to sign after the expansion draft so we don’t need to protect him. Then protect:

KK
Anderson
Toffoli
Gally
Evans
Lehkonen
Drouin

Weber
Petry
Chiarot

Price

Only protecting Drouin if we can trade him for something. If he has no value, expose him and hope he gets picked up.

 

[dcyhabs]

I believe you got also post the defensive vs offensive zone starts as well.

Regardless, I understand how some think Edmundson. I value him too. But I'm protecting Chiarot. I like how he steps up in the playoffs. And there are other reasons as well posted in previous posts. You don't have to agree. For all we know, one of Allen or Drouin gets taken

Edmundson is signed longer, gets harder deployment, does better in the deployments he is given, gets more points, is scored on less. Chiarot hits other players more because the opposition always has the puck in his zone. Chiarot was effective in the playoffs, at least when he was successfully hitting people in the first 3 series, and getting intimidation, but he's a pretty big problem in the regular season, especially since the refs call stuff then.

Might be reasonable to go 4/4/1 and keep all 4 top D because Chiarot is miles better than anyone we had for the several prior years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Edmundson is signed longer, gets harder deployment, does better in the deployments he is given, gets more points, is scored on less. Chiarot hits other players more because the opposition always has the puck in his zone. Chiarot was effective in the playoffs, at least when he was successfully hitting people in the first 3 series, and getting intimidation, but he's a pretty big problem in the regular season, especially since the refs call stuff then.

Might be reasonable to go 4/4/1 and keep all 4 top D because Chiarot is miles better than anyone we had for the several prior years.

Edmundson signed longer is a negative to me. Context is in various previous posts.

 

[montreal]

I wonder if MB could talk to Weber and if they agree, expose him and he could let Seattle know if they pick him he will retire, like Perry did this year when teams were going to pick him and he said if they did he would retire. It would be a gamble but no way would Seattle risk it if he says to them I would rather retire then play there. Of course the question would be would he agree to do that, but if it's explained to him that we would need to do that in order to keep the other 3 D. Of course they could do the 8 F/D and Price but just thinking outside the box.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Price

Weber Petry Edmundson

Gallagher Toffoli Kotkaniemi Anderson Lehkonen Evans and then whichever of Danault/Armia/Perry we extend.

Not complicated for me, let Seattle take one of Chiarot or Allen and move on (unless they're willing to take Drouin for a small payment),

 

[Sterling Archer]

Do we protect Emelin or Hudon??

 

[BaseballCoach]

Considering that Petry > Weber at this stage, I feel Chiarot is offering more to protect Weber than Edmundson is to protect Weber. We agree on Chiarot's impact

Rather keep all 4 but if we add a offensive LD and we want Romanov to play top 4D after next year, I feel Edmundson becomes the guy that blocks him.

Not sure Petry is better than Weber. Definitely not sure Chiarot is more important than Edmundson.

What you are really saying about the cap is that in 22-23 you want to be rid of both Chiarot and Edmundson and the route to get there is to lose Edmundson to Seattle and not re-sign Chiarot after next year. All this to make sure that Romanov gets a guaranteed #4 spot at age 22, and to make room for a potential #3 that will come in.

I don't like it. Expose Weber once you confirm Seattle is not going to take him, keep all 4 D, and decide on Chiarot after next year, after we see how the other 3 Man-Mountains are doing and how Romanov is progressing.

 

[MM425]

I completely agree what everyone is saying about Chiarot. He's a good player but not a great one and is absolutely replaceable.

That said, it's clear the coaching staff and Bergy love the guy. He won't be exposed. They might even be thinking extension for him this off-season.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Do we protect Emelin or Hudon??

Benn!

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not sure Petry is better than Weber. Definitely not sure Chiarot is more important than Edmundson.

What you are really saying about the cap is that in 22-23 you want to be rid of both Chiarot and Edmundson and the route to get there is to lose Edmundson to Seattle and not re-sign Chiarot after next year. All this to make sure that Romanov gets a guaranteed #4 spot at age 22, and to make room for a potential #3 that will come in.

I don't like it. Expose Weber once you confirm Seattle is not going to take him, keep all 4 D, and decide on Chiarot after next year, after we see how the other 3 Man-Mountains are doing and how Romanov is progressing.

I'm not dead set on anything. I just see potential issues with Edmundson's term if we were to add a puck moving LD with offense and how Romanov is blocked after next year to pay top 4D and our cap space becomes very tight when we have to sign Suzuki.

It's possible we have both Chiarot and Edmundson for next year and one of Drouin/Allen is taken by Seattle so all this narrative goes away.

But according to who I have protected? I protect Chiarot over Edmundson. I gave my reasons

 

[Sorinth]

I completely agree what everyone is saying about Chiarot. He's a good player but not a great one and is absolutely replaceable.

That said, it's clear the coaching staff and Bergy love the guy. He won't be exposed. They might even be thinking extension for him this off-season.

Personally I have a feeling they'll sign Danault before the expansion draft which will kind of force them to go 7F 3D in which case Chiarot will be exposed. But it wouldn't surprise me if we make a deal and send say a 2nd round pick so that Chiarot is protected.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Hits and blocked shots are often a sign that the puck is in the defensive zone. If you look at possession numbers Edmundson is miles ahead of Chiarot both regular season and playoffs, and you can even look into the pairings themselves to remove the whole Petry vs Weber effect.

Here's the CF% by pairing

with Gustafsson
Edmundson was 61.36%
Chiarot was 44.83%

with Romanov
Edmundson was 57.14%
Chiarot was 23.53%

with Kulak
Edmundson was 53.16%
Chiarot was 42.39%

with Merrill
Edmundson was 38.18%
Chiarot was 37.74%

with Petry
Edmundson was 48.72%
Chiarot was 38.33%

with Weber
Edmundson was 45.00%
Chiarot was 46.42%

The only pairings it was even close was Merrill and Weber, every other pairing Edmundson was vastly superior and keeping pucks from being directed towards the net. And on top of that Edmundson started a larger % of his shifts in the defensive zone 62.62% vs Chiarots 57.14%. So the numbers are even skewed against Edmundson, the one pairing Chiarot was ahead of Edmundson when you look at the defensive zone starts Edmundson was at 100% with Weber whereas Chiarot was at 61.29%.

There's really no comparison, Edmundson was superior to Chiarot and it's not really all that close. Chiarot's seemingly was more physical side because he would spend more time hemmed in the defensive zone and not because he is superior physical or defensive player.

Are these Chiarot's numbers from last year? Wasn't he hurt? Hard to make any definitive statements with the Habs regular season. What about just the numbers for just the playoffs? How reliable are those stats anyway? Don't they change pretty quickly from year to year? I remember TJ Brodie was very highly thought of by the Corsi crowd and fairly shortly afterwards he was a black hole according to the Corsi crowd. In stats there's usually meaningful variance number - is the difference statistically meaningful? What's the normal deviation. If Brodie is one of the best in the league one year, and a bad player the next, maybe the differences aren't statistically important.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

After this run, I can't see Bergevin risking losing Chiarot, Edmundson or Allen.

My guess is he swings a side deal and gives them something like Cale Fleury and a 2nd.

 

[Sorinth]

Are these Chiarot's numbers from last year? Wasn't he hurt? Hard to make any definitive statements with the Habs regular season. What about just the numbers for just the playoffs? How reliable are those stats anyway? Don't they change pretty quickly from year to year? I remember TJ Brodie was very highly thought of by the Corsi crowd and fairly shortly afterwards he was a black hole according to the Corsi crowd. In stats there's usually meaningful variance number - is the difference statistically meaningful? What's the normal deviation. If Brodie is one of the best in the league one year, and a bad player the next, maybe the differences aren't statistically important.

Those are the numbers for the playoffs, I didn't bother looking at regular season since I'm not sure anyone would argue that Chiarot was better in the regular season.

Plenty of players are great one year and crap the next when Gomez came over he was a stud his first year, and one year later was barely an nhl player. If we want to talk about who will be better next season then things like Edmundson being younger will have to be factored in. And it's worth noting the eye test was also telling me that Edmundson was better at getting us out of the defensive zone even if his hits weren't as highlight reel worthy.