Speculation: Evander: 6x6 or trade

[Rowley Birkin]

Culture change... we aren't selling at the deadline if we are "in it". I don't care about a 2nd round pick. We aren't rebuilding anymore.

I didn't say a 2nd round pick...

 

[Jame]

Team ES Performance w/ Lehner in goal:

Lehner w/ Kane
GF 2.10
GA 3.28 ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Lehner w/o Kane
GF 1.96
GA 2.05

Our scoring is relatively stable without Kane... we hardly miss him. Yet, our GA against... drops dramatically.

I'd love to see Lehner's high danger save % without Kane on the ice

 

[Husko]

Im willing to look at advanced stats or even normal stats in a normal hockey system. Anything under Bylsma is irrelevant in my mind.

2012-2015 in Winnipeg, 3 year stretch:

Oli Jokinen
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.25 - GA/60: 3.49 (-1.24)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 1.56 - GA/60: 1.74 (-0.18)


Mark Scheifele
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.20 - GA/60: 2.83 (-0.63)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 2.10 - GA/60: 1.94 (+0.16)


Blake Wheeler
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.17 - GA/60: 3.08 (-0.91)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 2.84 - GA/60: 2.07 (+0.77)


Those were his three most common partners during the three year stretch. That adds up to a -2.78 with Kane, and a +0.75 without Kane.

 

[Aladyyn]

Team ES Performance w/ Lehner in goal:

Lehner w/ Kane
GF 2.10
GA 3.28 ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Lehner w/o Kane
GF 1.96
GA 2.05

Our scoring is relatively stable without Kane... we hardly miss him. Yet, our GA against... drops dramatically.

I'd love to see Lehner's high danger save % without Kane on the ice

They say that wingers don't have a big effect defensively, buuuuuuuuuut this is very very ugly.

 

[Gabrielor]

That should settle it. Kane for Gallagher, and I'd even throw in a small sweetener, like a mid round pick

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Nobody cared too much what the fanbase thought of ripping the team apart and tanking. And the fans still show up and fill the building.

Nobody cared too much what the players in the dressing room thought about ripping the team apart and tanking. And the players still sign here and take all the money.

What a silly concern, it's a business. Unless you write for the Buffalo News and have delusional moral takes on things for random reasons.

Management should do what it thinks is best for the team going forward. Making the playoffs one year as a bubble team/half-assed contender is hardly worth dropping what could a be a good trade deadline asset. Plus even as a playoff bubble team I hardly think too many people who think clearly would be laying that at the driving force of Evander Kane.

Yeah. This nails it.

Believe me I want this team to make the playoffs. I'm sick of not being there.

But we're still playing the long game & honestly - as I posted above - I don't think Kane is a fraction of the difference maker some are portraying him to be. He's never once played a playoff game either.

I get the 'culture change' angle
But players and fans alike should be able to see and understand the bigger picture.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

2012-2015 in Winnipeg, 3 year stretch:

Oli Jokinen
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.25 - GA/60: 3.49 (-1.24)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 1.56 - GA/60: 1.74 (-0.18)


Mark Scheifele
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.20 - GA/60: 2.83 (-0.63)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 2.10 - GA/60: 1.94 (+0.16)


Blake Wheeler
W/ Kane
GF/60: 2.17 - GA/60: 3.08 (-0.91)

W/O Kane
GF/60: 2.84 - GA/60: 2.07 (+0.77)


Those were his three most common partners during the three year stretch. That adds up to a -2.78 with Kane, and a +0.75 without Kane.

This is pretty conclusive. Thanks for sharing.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Team ES Performance w/ Lehner in goal:

Lehner w/ Kane
GF 2.10
GA 3.28 ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Lehner w/o Kane
GF 1.96
GA 2.05

Our scoring is relatively stable without Kane... we hardly miss him. Yet, our GA against... drops dramatically.

I'd love to see Lehner's high danger save % without Kane on the ice

For comparison:

Lehner with Eichel

GF: 2.54
GA: 3.29

Lehner w/o Eichel

GF: 1.83
GA: 2.09

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

That should settle it. Kane for Gallagher, and I'd even throw in a small sweetener, like a mid round pick

ok call Botts and seal the deal

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Kane to NYR for...Vesey. Just for funzies.

 

[OkimLom]

Kane to NYR for...Vesey. Just for funzies.

Not enough Ridiculous:

Kane for Carrier

 

[sabrebuild]

Im willing to look at advanced stats or even normal stats in a normal hockey system. Anything under Bylsma is irrelevant in my mind.

As a person who thought bylsma was a terrible coach, and then was proven correct, this is a terrible take.

Sure consider how players might improve with better coaching.

Sure don't take the sabres raw numbers vs the league.

But the likelihood that Kane was garbage compared to his own teammates, but will rebound past them with a new coach. Pretty unlikely.

Advanced stats as they relate to this team and the players on it should not be ignored.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Not enough Ridiculous:

Kane for Carrier

Oh I thought of that one too. Maybe after Vesey says he won't re-sign as a RFA, Botts can trade him to Vegas for Carrier.

 

[OkimLom]

Oh I thought of that one too. Maybe after Vesey says he won't re-sign as a RFA, Botts can trade him to Vegas for Carrier.

Now we're talking...

 

[billsandsabres]

There is nothing to support this...literally blind accusation.

of course i am speculating, but it's not a blind accusation. accusation has a negative connotation and i have no issue with a player exercising his rights and picking the city/team he wants to play for when he becomes a free agent. and based on kane's well-documented love of nightlife and of vegas, it's not blind speculation. i could easily be wrong, but i'm not exactly going on nothing here, it's not an unreasonable conclusion to draw based on the information available.

 

[Sabre the Win]

It's like you decided to pretend to accept the underlying metrics, but couldn't even make it through an entire post without re-revealing your bias or lack of comprehension of said metrics.

The point of Kane's underlying Metrics is that we lose when he's on the ice. No matter how many goals he scores, we do not come out ahead.

Yeah I am starting to see more of that now the more the advanced stats come out. It was even a problem in Winnipeg so it's not Bylsma's system. It is him.

They say that wingers don't have a big effect defensively, buuuuuuuuuut this is very very ugly.

That's ugly, could you post other wingers? I am curious to see how they all compare. I know Joshjull has a thread he did for the defense already.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Oh I thought of that one too. Maybe after Vesey says he won't re-sign as a RFA, Botts can trade him to Vegas for Carrier.

Not enough Ridiculous:

Kane for Carrier

Now we're talking...

Oh no! Not more William "The Conqueror" Carrier talk!

 

[Aladyyn]

Not enough Ridiculous:

Kane for Carrier

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't mind

 

[Jim Bob]

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't mind

The media that covers the NHL, TMZ, and Instagram approve of this trade.

 

[OkimLom]

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't mind

Can we just leave it at that for 26CB's sake...

 

[SamsonReinFart]

Unsurprisingly, I wouldn't mind

I would happily add a pick.

 

[Heraldic]

I find it actually pretty hilarious that there are posters who (rightly so) think that certain players should have a second chance without Bylsma, because there were clear reasons that those players didn't fit Bylsma's system, who at the same time think that Kane isn't one of them.

During Kane's time in Winnipeg (2011-2015) his 5v5 GF% was 49,8, meaning he really wasn't losing (or winning) his matchups. And if you actually want to cherry pick wowy-stats (like one poster above), you take a player like Byfuglien (who with he played more than with anyone else) and see that his GF% with him during that time was 51,4 and without 44,9 (his impact on Mark Stuart was pretty much the same).

To take a more precise look comparing Kane's and his team's GF% during each of those seasons:

2011-2012
Kane 55,2
WPG 49,3

2012-2013
Kane 49,3
WPG 47,4

2013-2014
Kane 45,1
WPG 48,7

2014-2015 (traded to Buffalo)
Kane 48,8
WPG 53,8

It's clear that there was a clear change after the 2012-2013 season (and the stats from 14-15 are contaminated a bit because of his trade), but given his age and that there really isn't any known injury etc. to affect him, there is no reason he couldn't become again a positive impact player on a right system.

Housley's up-tempo system should be a lot better fit for him than Bylsma's ultra passive system - both offensively and defensively.

I'm not saying that you should offer him a high money/term contract right now, but he should deserve another look, and if he seems like a fit and the contract would be reasonable (like the 6x6), extending him shouldn't be ruled out.

 

[Aladyyn]

Kane works when you can stick him on a line with offensively limited players and not worry about the defensive side of the puck.

We can't do that.

And again, Housley stressed "5-man attack" which Kane is a horrendous fit for because he can't use his teammates.

 

[Icicle]

I think it's clear with Kane that if he's expected to play against top-6 competition, he flounders, but when he's against bottom-6 competition, he can be an asset. The stats you look at have a lot to do with his usage.

 

[Aladyyn]

Yeah I am starting to see more of that now the more the advanced stats come out. It was even a problem in Winnipeg so it's not Bylsma's system. It is him.

That's ugly, could you post other wingers? I am curious to see how they all compare. I know Joshjull has a thread he did for the defense already.

You can check for yourself here http://hockeyviz.com/team/BUF/1617

spoiler: Reinhart looks preeeetty good