Speculation: Evander: 6x6 or trade

[SamsonReinFart]

If the team signs Kane to an extension of anything over 3 million a season (and even then), it would be very concerning to me. Everything points to him being a huge detriment to the team...

I know lots of posters love looking at those raw ES goal scoring numbers, but do the Kane fans really understand just how much of a detriment he is on almost every single one of his linemates production?

Over the past two seasons, of 111 forwards who have played at least 2000 minutes, Kane is:

111th (dead last) in GF/60 (1.82)
108th in GA/60 (2.79)
111th (dead last) in GF% (39.5%)

So even with his "goal scoring abilities" being what they are, he is literally the worst player in the NHL (out of guys playing lots of minutes) at making the puck going into the other net when he's on the ice. Dead last. And that's before we even talk about how often it goes into HIS net when he's out there. As just for the sake of providing context, Marcus Foligno has played 2000 minutes the last two seasons, so this isn't just comparing him to the Crosby's of the world.

Even if I open the sample up to include tons more players (1000 minutes), he is:

276th in GF/60 (1.82)
321st in GA/60 (2.79)
315th in GF% (39.5%)

So still terrible at scoring and getting scored on.

I would also argue that Kane was one of the few guys playing in a terrible Bylsma system that actually played to his strengths. I think he might actually look worse in a better system...

Then we can look specifically at how he affects all of our best players and it should close the book on signing him to any sort of relatively large contract. How can you build out an expensive and talented center spine, then pay a ton of money to a winger that makes all of them worse?

---

Reinhart with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 1.96
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 45.1%

Reinhart away from Kane
GF60 - 2.21
GA60 - 2.34
GF% - 48.6%

---

Eichel with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 2.13
GA60 - 3.19
GF% - 40.0%

Eichel away from Kane
GF60 - 2.14
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 47.3%

---

O'Reilly with Kane (~660 minutes)
GF60 - 1.82
GA60 - 2.91
GF% - 38.5%

Okposo away from Kane
GF60 - 2.12
GA60 - 2.12
GF% - 50.0%

---

The only way we should consider signing Kane is if it's to a crazy bargain of a contract (< 3 mil) and we can somehow be sure that the coach will keep him on the 3rd or 4th line - and that will never happen. So no we should trade him for anything he can return. I barely care what it is at this point.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

His goal scoring "streakiness" isn't at issue. You posted that he takes nights off and that simply is not the case. To the contrary, he has put in effort on a consistent basis throughout his NHL career. Nice try.

You hit the nail on the head. Kane gave maximum effort virtually every time he suited up. And trying to diminish Kanes effort by pointing to his 12 game "drought" to start the season should try and remember what happened opening night...you know when he broke several ribs and came back far too early? And if 4 goals over the last 15 games is a drought, then that's fine by me. Because you do know 4 goals in 15 games is still over a 20 goal pace...you know the goal total that only two Sabres besides Kane actually hit last year?

And since we are talking about droughts, Reinhart scored 4 goals his last 20 games...including 0 in his last 7 to end the season and 1 goal in his final 12 games. If people want to diminish Kane then let's be real and apply it fairly to everyone, including a golden boy.

 

[Jame]

Moulson, Girgensons and Pouliot is an atrocious depth chart at LW. Like absolutely atrocious. None of those 3 are conventional top 6 players. Girgensons as of today is a bottom 6 winger at best who belongs on the 4th line. Moulson shouldn't even be in the NHL. Pouliot is a solid player best suited for the third line. Unless we are adding Vanek for 2 years until Nylander and then eventually Mittelstadt are ready our Lws would be absolutely horrendous. Eichel cannot be saddled with a Matt Moulson as a linemate.

While, I don't want Moulson playing with Eichel... let's be honest about who has actually saddled Eichel in the past:

Last two seasons:
Eichel w/ Moulson 400 minutes
GF 2.68
GA 2.83
-0.15

Eichel w/ Kane 670 minutes
GF 2.13
GA 3.19
-1.06

Yea... let's not saddle Eichel with Kane again.

Bottom line, Girgensons has been the best match for Eichel... by far... and he should be penciled in as Eichel's LW

Eichel w/ Girgs
GF 2.75
GA 1.57
+1.18

 

[markpenske]

I would be very happy if they resign Kane. Picking up Pomminville's contact muddy's the waters.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm trying to find at least 1 extra year. I'd like to buy our Rochester Wingers at least one additional year of development. That's the type of hockey trade we should be looking at with Kane. I'm not interested in selling him for futures. I am also not interested in re-signing him for anything resembling market value/term.

If the choice is down to selling him for futures or resigning him which do you pick?

 

[Jame]

If the choice is down to selling him for futures or resigning him which do you pick?

Neither. Make the playoffs.

 

[Reddawg]

I would be very happy if they resign Kane. Picking up Pomminville's contact muddy's the waters.

It seems pretty clear that any extension of Kane assumes that Pommer's last year of his deal would be bought out.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Last 3 years:
Gallagher 0.58 pts per game
Kane 0.58 pts per game

PPG on MTL team vs PPG on BUF team under Bylsma? Way to skew stats.

 

[Aladyyn]

Moulson, Girgensons and Pouliot is an atrocious depth chart at LW. Like absolutely atrocious. None of those 3 are conventional top 6 players. Girgensons as of today is a bottom 6 winger at best who belongs on the 4th line. Moulson shouldn't even be in the NHL. Pouliot is a solid player best suited for the third line. Unless we are adding Vanek for 2 years until Nylander and then eventually Mittelstadt are ready our Lws would be absolutely horrendous. Eichel cannot be saddled with a Matt Moulson as a linemate.

The whole point of the tank was that we could plug and play whichever wingers we had lying around. Non-issue.

 

[Husko]

If the team signs Kane to an extension of anything over 3 million a season (and even then), it would be very concerning to me. Everything points to him being a huge detriment to the team...

I know lots of posters love looking at those raw ES goal scoring numbers, but do the Kane fans really understand just how much of a detriment he is on almost every single one of his linemates production?

Over the past two seasons, of 111 forwards who have played at least 2000 minutes, Kane is:

111th (dead last) in GF/60 (1.82)
108th in GA/60 (2.79)
111th (dead last) in GF% (39.5%)

So even with his "goal scoring abilities" being what they are, he is literally the worst player in the NHL (out of guys playing lots of minutes) at making the puck going into the other net when he's on the ice. Dead last. And that's before we even talk about how often it goes into HIS net when he's out there. As just for the sake of providing context, Marcus Foligno has played 2000 minutes the last two seasons, so this isn't just comparing him to the Crosby's of the world.

Even if I open the sample up to include tons more players (1000 minutes), he is:

276th in GF/60 (1.82)
321st in GA/60 (2.79)
315th in GF% (39.5%)

So still terrible at scoring and getting scored on.

I would also argue that Kane was one of the few guys playing in a terrible Bylsma system that actually played to his strengths. I think he might actually look worse in a better system...

Then we can look specifically at how he affects all of our best players and it should close the book on signing him to any sort of relatively large contract. How can you build out an expensive and talented center spine, then pay a ton of money to a winger that makes all of them worse?

---

Reinhart with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 1.96
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 45.1%

Reinhart away from Kane
GF60 - 2.21
GA60 - 2.34
GF% - 48.6%

---

Eichel with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 2.13
GA60 - 3.19
GF% - 40.0%

Eichel away from Kane
GF60 - 2.14
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 47.3%

---

O'Reilly with Kane (~660 minutes)
GF60 - 1.82
GA60 - 2.91
GF% - 38.5%

Okposo away from Kane
GF60 - 2.12
GA60 - 2.12
GF% - 50.0%

---

The only way we should consider signing Kane is if it's to a crazy bargain of a contract (< 3 mil) and we can somehow be sure that the coach will keep him on the 3rd or 4th line - and that will never happen. So no we should trade him for anything he can return. I barely care what it is at this point.

Posts like this should be so awakening for the pro-Kane crowd. It's alarming the way he has a negative effect on litterally everyone he plays with. I think girgensons is the only one he has positive WOWY stats with.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Posts like this should be so awakening for the pro-Kane crowd. It's alarming the way he has a negative effect on litterally everyone he plays with. I think girgensons is the only one he has positive WOWY stats with.

Im willing to look at advanced stats or even normal stats in a normal hockey system. Anything under Bylsma is irrelevant in my mind.

 

[Husko]

PPG on MTL team vs PPG on BUF team under Bylsma? Way to skew stats.

Last year Montreal only outscored Buffalo by 24 goals.
In 2015-2016 they outscored Buffalo by just 17 goals.
In 2014-2015, Kane was on Winnipeg. Winnipeg outscored Montreal by 7 goals.

Way to skew stats.

 

[Jame]

PPG on MTL team vs PPG on BUF team under Bylsma? Way to skew stats.

Yes, I don't think the obvious context is required. Montreal scored 0.25 more goals per game over the last 2 years than Buffalo did.

 

[Jame]

Im willing to look at advanced stats or even normal stats in a normal hockey system. Anything under Bylsma is irrelevant in my mind.

except Lehner

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

except Lehner

Yes cause for him they show true stats while his basic stats are deceiving as for any other goalie we have had for Bylsma. Roll your eyes as much as you want to, but it's a very valid argument. Maybe we should look to trade Risto too cause he has 0 shot suppression on his hero chart you know... Nothing to do with Bylsma eh?

 

[Sabre the Win]

If the team signs Kane to an extension of anything over 3 million a season (and even then), it would be very concerning to me. Everything points to him being a huge detriment to the team...

I know lots of posters love looking at those raw ES goal scoring numbers, but do the Kane fans really understand just how much of a detriment he is on almost every single one of his linemates production?

Over the past two seasons, of 111 forwards who have played at least 2000 minutes, Kane is:

111th (dead last) in GF/60 (1.82)
108th in GA/60 (2.79)
111th (dead last) in GF% (39.5%)

So even with his "goal scoring abilities" being what they are, he is literally the worst player in the NHL (out of guys playing lots of minutes) at making the puck going into the other net when he's on the ice. Dead last. And that's before we even talk about how often it goes into HIS net when he's out there. As just for the sake of providing context, Marcus Foligno has played 2000 minutes the last two seasons, so this isn't just comparing him to the Crosby's of the world.

Even if I open the sample up to include tons more players (1000 minutes), he is:

276th in GF/60 (1.82)
321st in GA/60 (2.79)
315th in GF% (39.5%)

So still terrible at scoring and getting scored on.

I would also argue that Kane was one of the few guys playing in a terrible Bylsma system that actually played to his strengths. I think he might actually look worse in a better system...

Then we can look specifically at how he affects all of our best players and it should close the book on signing him to any sort of relatively large contract. How can you build out an expensive and talented center spine, then pay a ton of money to a winger that makes all of them worse?

---

Reinhart with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 1.96
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 45.1%

Reinhart away from Kane
GF60 - 2.21
GA60 - 2.34
GF% - 48.6%

---

Eichel with Kane (~703 minutes)
GF60 - 2.13
GA60 - 3.19
GF% - 40.0%

Eichel away from Kane
GF60 - 2.14
GA60 - 2.39
GF% - 47.3%

---

O'Reilly with Kane (~660 minutes)
GF60 - 1.82
GA60 - 2.91
GF% - 38.5%

Okposo away from Kane
GF60 - 2.12
GA60 - 2.12
GF% - 50.0%

---

The only way we should consider signing Kane is if it's to a crazy bargain of a contract (< 3 mil) and we can somehow be sure that the coach will keep him on the 3rd or 4th line - and that will never happen. So no we should trade him for anything he can return. I barely care what it is at this point.

I agree he's a 3rd/4th liner and thats why I feel this poll pigeon holes real conversation because hes not worth 6x6 so the only other option is to trade him. The way I see it hes in a similar situation with Lehner. Kane has the production numbers that make you go wow but his underlying advanced stats show he's horribly overpaid and he's not who his points production show. He shares company with Tavares and Pavelski for the amount of goals he scored and he's not even nearly in their league. Lehner same way, his save percentage shares company with the likes of Holtby and Price but his underlying metrics show he's not even in their league.

The problem we have right now is that we can't walk away from either at this moment. We need Kane's goals, goals win games its as simple as that and in a game that's increasingly getting harder to score Kane is doing really well on that front and unless we start getting more production from our depth and blue line we will continue to flounder in mediocrity at the bottom of the standings.

If we can get better production this year, Kane is the first piece I want gone because those underlying numbers are ugly unless he would be willing to sign for 4 AAV and play 3rd/4th line which I am 100% certain he would not be.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Neither. Make the playoffs.

Having or not having Kane will not have a huge bearing on this IMO.

As I said above if we get offered garbage I have no problem keeping him then walking away... But if as I expect a contending or even a bubble team offers say, a 1st or a promising d prospect as a rental... You would turn that down?!

 

[Jame]

Yes cause for him they show true stats while his basic stats are deceiving as for any other goalie we have had for Bylsma. Roll your eyes as much as you want to, but it's a very valid argument. Maybe we should look to trade Risto too cause he has 0 shot suppression on his hero chart you know... Nothing to do with Bylsma eh?

So, once again... your use your "true stats" when they fit your predetermined position.

 

[Reddawg]

Having or not having Kane will not have a huge bearing on this IMO.

Reading the GF60 stats is making me come around to this mindset as well, I didn't realize his numbers are basically the worst in the league. I'd still prefer to consider dealing him at the deadline rather than right now, unless it's for a big piece of future for us.

 

[Jame]

Having or not having Kane will not have a huge bearing on this IMO.

As I said above if we get offered garbage I have no problem keeping him then walking away... But if as I expect a contending or even a bubble team offers say, a 1st or a promising d prospect as a rental... You would turn that down?!

Culture change... we aren't selling at the deadline if we are "in it". I don't care about a 2nd round pick. We aren't rebuilding anymore.

 

[Aladyyn]

I agree he's a 3rd/4th liner and thats why I feel this poll pigeon holes real conversation because hes not worth 6x6 so the only other option is to trade him. The way I see it hes in a similar situation with Lehner. Kane has the production numbers that make you go wow but his underlying advanced stats show he's horribly overpaid and he's not who his points production show. He shares company with Tavares and Pavelski for the amount of goals he scored and he's not even nearly in their league. Lehner same way, his save percentage shares company with the likes of Holtby and Price but his underlying metrics show he's not even in their league.

The problem we have right now is that we can't walk away from either at this moment. We need Kane's goals, goals win games its as simple as that and in a game that's increasingly getting harder to score Kane is doing really well on that front and unless we start getting more production from our depth and blue line we will continue to flounder in mediocrity at the bottom of the standings.

If we can get better production this year, Kane is the first piece I want gone because those underlying numbers are ugly unless he would be willing to sign for 4 AAV and play 3rd/4th line which I am 100% certain he would not be.

In the 2 seasons Kane's been here, the team has been scoring more when he's not playing.

 

[Baccus]

Yeah, explain THAT to the fanbase.....even worse, explain that to the locker room.

To think the Sabres would trade Kane without a significant roster player coming back at hte deadline is delusional, while they are in the hunt for the playoffs that is.

Nobody cared too much what the fanbase thought of ripping the team apart and tanking. And the fans still show up and fill the building.

Nobody cared too much what the players in the dressing room thought about ripping the team apart and tanking. And the players still sign here and take all the money.

What a silly concern, it's a business. Unless you write for the Buffalo News and have delusional moral takes on things for random reasons.

Management should do what it thinks is best for the team going forward. Making the playoffs one year as a bubble team/half-assed contender is hardly worth dropping what could a be a good trade deadline asset. Plus even as a playoff bubble team I hardly think too many people who think clearly would be laying that at the driving force of Evander Kane.

 

[Jame]

I agree he's a 3rd/4th liner and thats why I feel this poll pigeon holes real conversation because hes not worth 6x6 so the only other option is to trade him. The way I see it hes in a similar situation with Lehner. Kane has the production numbers that make you go wow but his underlying advanced stats show he's horribly overpaid and he's not who his points production show. He shares company with Tavares and Pavelski for the amount of goals he scored and he's not even nearly in their league. Lehner same way, his save percentage shares company with the likes of Holtby and Price but his underlying metrics show he's not even in their league.

The problem we have right now is that we can't walk away from either at this moment. We need Kane's goals, goals win games its as simple as that and in a game that's increasingly getting harder to score Kane is doing really well on that front and unless we start getting more production from our depth and blue line we will continue to flounder in mediocrity at the bottom of the standings.

If we can get better production this year, Kane is the first piece I want gone because those underlying numbers are ugly unless he would be willing to sign for 4 AAV and play 3rd/4th line which I am 100% certain he would not be.

It's like you decided to pretend to accept the underlying metrics, but couldn't even make it through an entire post without re-revealing your bias or lack of comprehension of said metrics.

The point of Kane's underlying Metrics is that we lose when he's on the ice. No matter how many goals he scores, we do not come out ahead.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm actually staggered this poll is as close as it is.

If only for the cap implications it should be a no brainer. If we didn't sign KO to his deal last summer I could understand people wanting to keep him around long term even if I didn't necessarily agree with it.

 

[Aladyyn]

How to ruin your cap 101: sign a player based on the highest sh% season of their career

If Botterill truly is cap-smart, he won't sign Kane.