Player Discussion Ethan Bear: It's a Bear Market

[AddyTheWrath]

Bear had a good stretch of games and then hit a wall again against Montreal.

He will be fine. His ice time is mostly against elites and he treads water. He's also only in his second year in the NHL and his advanced stats are good (they don't contradict the eye test like they do with Jones, who gives up way too many Grade A chances). He's miles better than Barrie at defense already as a sophomore.

Let's not forget this guy was a major part of the top 4 of a playoff team last year as a rookie.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Nurse had his struggles before getting to where he is now, and his game certainly still has its warts but he's a top pair defenceman. Bear is going through a very typical sophomore slump where he's struggling with consistency now that expectations have increased. His game has issues but he's still a positive for this team if he's playing in the right role and his game is still growing. Let's not run Bear out of town only to watch him have success with his new team as has happened many times before with young Oilers defencemen, shall we.

 

[McCombo]

Ethan Bear at 5on5, away from Haas, had a 97% xGF.

Jesus christ.

With McDavid he had a 1.25 xGF and a 0.01 xGA.

Quote is from game thread but I think this is better here.

Lets compare our two best defensemen. Last year they played a lot together. Their 5on5 numbers:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	SF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Bear	Nurse	48.60	49.04	49.06	50.51	51.95
Bear	w/o Nurse	48.78	48.70	50.44	51.35	51.67
w/o Bear	Nurse	45.77	45.97	48.48	43.63	44.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Together they were very close to even. But as you can see Bear maintained similar numbers without Nurse. But Nurse crumbled pretty badly without Bear.

This year they have seen limited time together. Nurse has played ~913 mins at 5on5 and ~530 mins with McDavid. Over 56% of his icetime. Bear has played ~484 mins and ~149 mins with McDavid. Under 31% of his icetime with McDavid.

Nurse has started 57.21% of his shifts in offensive zone. Bear only 48.7%.

Player	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	50.25	51.66	52.80	52.71
Bear	53.27	58.17	55.58	60.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Evethough Nurse gets very favourable zone starts and spends majority of the icetime with McDavid, Bear beats him in every category. Also Corsi for% and Shots for%, didn't leave them out on purpose, just created random size table.

Which has better results when they share ice with McDavid:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	McDavid	54.11	57.89	57.14	57.40
Bear	McDavid	62.38	70.69	65.31	73.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And when you compare the results without McDavid, Bear is very close 50% in every category and Nurse plummets well below 50% in every category. Of course Bear's sample size is fairly small this year with McDavid, but why has Tippett insisted having Nurse and Barrie on the ice with McDavid when there could be a lot better option in the team? A player who can maximize the time team has possession of the puck.

There is a trend no matter where you look and how much you dig. Bear is really good. On the other hand Nurse's extension has me worried. Getting Trouba extension vibes. Now Rangers actually have a Dmen playing at elite level and the 8mil contract for Trouba looks absolutely foolish.

Why are their results so different?

"His (Nurse) transition profile is only OK and he has a history of being porous at his own blue line, and that likely leads to his weaker defensive results.

Bear, in comparison, is much stronger at denying entries or forcing dump-ins, and it’s likely part of the reason fans might be easier on him for his poor defensive results. He’s also more likely to distribute the puck in the offensive zone and move the puck out well in the defensive zone. Both skills are sorely lacking on the Oilers’ blue line. It’s why I compared Bear to Jake Gardiner before the playoffs started, and I promise I meant that favourably. Bear is a good kid with some upside as a strong puck-mover despite his poor rating and would likely thrive playing next to a steadier defender in a lesser role. Being on the top pair with Nurse is tough."

That was from this years season preview from The Athletic. Bear moves the puck better and can defend the blue-line. Nurse can't and that probably explains why he gets hemmed in, if he isn't carried by 97.

Give me Ethan Bear over Darnell Nurse every day of the week.

 

[Aceboogie]

Give me Ethan Bear over Darnell Nurse every day of the week.

I do think Bear will be our best D shortly. Hes a great example for a D who makes 3 small, almost unrecognizable good plays each shift. If you isolate view him shift by shift, you see that his analytics match up with the eye test. The puck almost always goes in the right direction, but alot of the plays look effortless and alot of fans miss them

That is the major reason so many unheralded D come out of almost nowhere to the casual fan (Ellis, Devon Toews, Brodie, Petry) etc. Theyll have great underlying numbers early on, but only get the recognition from the casual fan a few years later

When hes on (which has been alot recently) hes our best D

Here a sample of his small, but very good plays. None are highlight reel worthy, but all show examples why his underlying numbers are the best for our D

 

[Smartguy]

I do think Bear will be our best D shortly. Hes a great example for a D who makes 3 small, almost unrecognizable good plays each shift. If you isolate view him shift by shift, you see that his analytics match up with the eye test. The puck almost always goes in the right direction, but alot of the plays look effortless and alot of fans miss them

That is the major reason so many unheralded D come out of almost nowhere to the casual fan (Ellis, Devon Toews, Brodie, Petry) etc. Theyll have great underlying numbers early on, but only get the recognition from the casual fan a few years later

When hes on (which has been alot recently) hes our best D

Here a sample of his small, but very good plays. None are highlight reel worthy, but all show examples why his underlying numbers are the best for our D

Just last week people wanted him sat, and/or traded. I’ll gladly eat my crow if Bear becomes a consistent top 4 d, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence he’s starting to get back on track playing against lesser competition. He played great last night and you love seeing how pumped he was getting his first last night and hopefully he keeps building off that. But his play needs to be much more consistent before you start putting him over Nurse

 

[Ol' Jase]

Quote is from game thread but I think this is better here.

Lets compare our two best defensemen. Last year they played a lot together. Their 5on5 numbers:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	SF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Bear	Nurse	48.60	49.04	49.06	50.51	51.95
Bear	w/o Nurse	48.78	48.70	50.44	51.35	51.67
w/o Bear	Nurse	45.77	45.97	48.48	43.63	44.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Together they were very close to even. But as you can see Bear maintained similar numbers without Nurse. But Nurse crumbled pretty badly without Bear.

This year they have seen limited time together. Nurse has played ~913 mins at 5on5 and ~530 mins with McDavid. Over 56% of his icetime. Bear has played ~484 mins and ~149 mins with McDavid. Under 31% of his icetime with McDavid.

Nurse has started 57.21% of his shifts in offensive zone. Bear only 48.7%.

Player	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	50.25	51.66	52.80	52.71
Bear	53.27	58.17	55.58	60.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Evethough Nurse gets very favourable zone starts and spends majority of the icetime with McDavid, Bear beats him in every category. Also Corsi for% and Shots for%, didn't leave them out on purpose, just created random size table.

Which has better results when they share ice with McDavid:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	McDavid	54.11	57.89	57.14	57.40
Bear	McDavid	62.38	70.69	65.31	73.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And when you compare the results without McDavid, Bear is very close 50% in every category and Nurse plummets well below 50% in every category. Of course Bear's sample size is fairly small this year with McDavid, but why has Tippett insisted having Nurse and Barrie on the ice with McDavid when there could be a lot better option in the team? A player who can maximize the time team has possession of the puck.

There is a trend no matter where you look and how much you dig. Bear is really good. On the other hand Nurse's extension has me worried. Getting Trouba extension vibes. Now Rangers actually have a Dmen playing at elite level and the 8mil contract for Trouba looks absolutely foolish.

Why are their results so different?

"His (Nurse) transition profile is only OK and he has a history of being porous at his own blue line, and that likely leads to his weaker defensive results.

Bear, in comparison, is much stronger at denying entries or forcing dump-ins, and it’s likely part of the reason fans might be easier on him for his poor defensive results. He’s also more likely to distribute the puck in the offensive zone and move the puck out well in the defensive zone. Both skills are sorely lacking on the Oilers’ blue line. It’s why I compared Bear to Jake Gardiner before the playoffs started, and I promise I meant that favourably. Bear is a good kid with some upside as a strong puck-mover despite his poor rating and would likely thrive playing next to a steadier defender in a lesser role. Being on the top pair with Nurse is tough."

That was from this years season preview from The Athletic. Bear moves the puck better and can defend the blue-line. Nurse can't and that probably explains why he gets hemmed in, if he isn't carried by 97.

Give me Ethan Bear over Darnell Nurse every day of the week.

Not a word about QoC I see, as expected.

 

[McCombo]

Not a word about QoC I see, as expected.

Last year they had very similar QoC and it was Bear carrying that pairing. This year there is massive difference in QoT and zone starts to favour Nurse. If QoC is in favour of Bear that is close to par.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Last year they had very similar QoC and it was Bear carrying that pairing. This year there is massive difference in QoT and zone starts to favour Nurse. If QoC is in favour of Bear that is close to par.

The stats are unit based, a single event is assigned equally to all five players on the ice.

Again, the entire argument above doesn’t reference QoC once, as if the variable doesn’t exist...

 

[Stoneman89]

I was one of the ones that was frustrated with his play, but more how he was being used (shoved into the top pairings), especially after a concussion. Once they moved him down the lineup with limited minutes, he gradually got his game back. He's able to take on some stiffer competition now, which is very helpful. We might have a player here.

 

[McCombo]

I do think Bear will be our best D shortly. Hes a great example for a D who makes 3 small, almost unrecognizable good plays each shift. If you isolate view him shift by shift, you see that his analytics match up with the eye test. The puck almost always goes in the right direction, but alot of the plays look effortless and alot of fans miss them

That is the major reason so many unheralded D come out of almost nowhere to the casual fan (Ellis, Devon Toews, Brodie, Petry) etc. Theyll have great underlying numbers early on, but only get the recognition from the casual fan a few years later

When hes on (which has been alot recently) hes our best D

Here a sample of his small, but very good plays. None are highlight reel worthy, but all show examples why his underlying numbers are the best for our D

Yep. Denying zone-entries is one of those unrecognizable plays that people don't pay attention. Old-fashioned people associate good defending to cross-checks, being mean in front of the net, hits. Nothing wrong with those, but if that is the only thing you can do that doesn't make you an good defensemen, ot even good defensive defensemen.



Here is example I found. What people think: "Hard nosed punishing defensemen, doesn't allow people in front of the net".
Reality: Tons of shots against from dangerous areas.

Doesn't mean that any Oiler would be exact copy of him, but many have pretty miss-guided view of defensemen. And what they need to do to be successful.

Player A holds the blue line, forces dump in, player B wins a foot race, picks up the puck and completes a pass/skates it out of while being pressured. Thats defending at its best. No need to hit, give cross-checks, break cycles. The pairs that allow a very little chances against do that regularly.

 

[McCombo]

The stats are unit based, a single event is assigned equally to all five players on the ice.

Again, the entire argument above doesn’t reference QoC once, as if the variable doesn’t exist...

What a coincidence that pretty much every unit that Bear is on performs better than when Nurse is there.

 

[GMofOilers]

1st goal in 49 games.

did Bear play alright tonight, sure but that doesn’t hide the first 40 or the last 40 last year where he has looked like not a NHL’er

Let’s see this the rest of the year and playoffs then maybe we can start talking about him being a average #6 player.

 

[Mr Positive]

Bear is good at clearing the zone without sacrificing possession. Thst can be frustrating when it doesnt work and it would have been better to just whack it out as hard as you can, but there are big benefits to doing it smart. Over time Bear will gain consistency and have more and more games like last night

 

[Ol' Jase]

What a coincidence that pretty much every unit that Bear is on performs better than when Nurse is there.

Who’s QoC do you think varies more, Bear’s or Nurse’s?

 

[McCombo]

Who’s QoC do you think varies more, Bear’s or Nurse’s?

This year must be Bear. But results aren't even close.

Bear has barely played 100 NHL games is a lot better at pushing the play to right direction. He can move the puck and stop opponents attacks before they are in the offensive zone.

 

[CycloneSweep]

1st goal in 49 games.

did Bear play alright tonight, sure but that doesn’t hide the first 40 or the last 40 last year where he has looked like not a NHL’er

Let’s see this the rest of the year and playoffs then maybe we can start talking about him being a average #6 player.

??????

Bear is an NHL player full stop.

That was never the question. "We can talk about him being an average #6". Even with you disliking Bear, do you honestly think 15-20 teams in the league have better #6 d than Bear? Jesus dude

 

[GOilers88]

 

[CycloneSweep]

Wait are people in here legit trying to argue that Bear is our best defender? Really? If that's true and fancy stats are to be believed, we should trade Nurse cause Jones is better than him too and we can easily just run Jones and Bear...
Woof.

Sample sizes matter a ton with advanced stats.

 

[Llamamoto]

Yeah I love Bear and I'm perfectly comfortable running Bear - Larsson - Bouchard on the right side next year, but Nurse is >>>> Bear.

 

[McDNicks17]

Quote is from game thread but I think this is better here.

Lets compare our two best defensemen. Last year they played a lot together. Their 5on5 numbers:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	SF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Bear	Nurse	48.60	49.04	49.06	50.51	51.95
Bear	w/o Nurse	48.78	48.70	50.44	51.35	51.67
w/o Bear	Nurse	45.77	45.97	48.48	43.63	44.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Together they were very close to even. But as you can see Bear maintained similar numbers without Nurse. But Nurse crumbled pretty badly without Bear.

This year they have seen limited time together. Nurse has played ~913 mins at 5on5 and ~530 mins with McDavid. Over 56% of his icetime. Bear has played ~484 mins and ~149 mins with McDavid. Under 31% of his icetime with McDavid.

Nurse has started 57.21% of his shifts in offensive zone. Bear only 48.7%.

Player	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	50.25	51.66	52.80	52.71
Bear	53.27	58.17	55.58	60.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Evethough Nurse gets very favourable zone starts and spends majority of the icetime with McDavid, Bear beats him in every category. Also Corsi for% and Shots for%, didn't leave them out on purpose, just created random size table.

Which has better results when they share ice with McDavid:

Player 1	Player 2	FF%	xG%	SC%	HDCF%
Nurse	McDavid	54.11	57.89	57.14	57.40
Bear	McDavid	62.38	70.69	65.31	73.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And when you compare the results without McDavid, Bear is very close 50% in every category and Nurse plummets well below 50% in every category. Of course Bear's sample size is fairly small this year with McDavid, but why has Tippett insisted having Nurse and Barrie on the ice with McDavid when there could be a lot better option in the team? A player who can maximize the time team has possession of the puck.

There is a trend no matter where you look and how much you dig. Bear is really good. On the other hand Nurse's extension has me worried. Getting Trouba extension vibes. Now Rangers actually have a Dmen playing at elite level and the 8mil contract for Trouba looks absolutely foolish.

Why are their results so different?

"His (Nurse) transition profile is only OK and he has a history of being porous at his own blue line, and that likely leads to his weaker defensive results.

Bear, in comparison, is much stronger at denying entries or forcing dump-ins, and it’s likely part of the reason fans might be easier on him for his poor defensive results. He’s also more likely to distribute the puck in the offensive zone and move the puck out well in the defensive zone. Both skills are sorely lacking on the Oilers’ blue line. It’s why I compared Bear to Jake Gardiner before the playoffs started, and I promise I meant that favourably. Bear is a good kid with some upside as a strong puck-mover despite his poor rating and would likely thrive playing next to a steadier defender in a lesser role. Being on the top pair with Nurse is tough."

That was from this years season preview from The Athletic. Bear moves the puck better and can defend the blue-line. Nurse can't and that probably explains why he gets hemmed in, if he isn't carried by 97.

Give me Ethan Bear over Darnell Nurse every day of the week.

When Bear and Nurse were apart last season, Bear got a huge offensive zone push with Klefbom while Nurse got almost entirely defensive zone starts with Larsson(who was a train wreck at the time).

The numbers from those small sample sizes aren't evidence that Bear carried that pairing. Same for some tiny sample sizes this year with some very obvious differences in competition.

 

[Little Fury]

Not a word about QoC I see, as expected.

Quality of teammate is a much bigger factor especially when two of those teammates are top 5 players in the world.

 

[Little Fury]

Wait are people in here legit trying to argue that Bear is our best defender? Really? If that's true and fancy stats are to be believed, we should trade Nurse cause Jones is better than him too and we can easily just run Jones and Bear...
Woof.

Sample sizes matter a ton with advanced stats.

No.

 

[LTIR]

View attachment 424544

The big 4

 

[LTIR]

This year must be Bear. But results aren't even close.

Bear has barely played 100 NHL games is a lot better at pushing the play to right direction. He can move the puck and stop opponents attacks before they are in the offensive zone.

If your stats are telling you that Bear is a better player than Nurse this year then throw away your stats because they are garbage. Bear is finally looking like a legit NHLer these past few games where Nurse is one of the best Dmen in the league not only an option for Team Canada Olympics but likely top pairing Dman on it. This thread is to cheer on this kid who should only get better and not to bash him because of your claims.

 

[McCombo]

When Bear and Nurse were apart last season, Bear got a huge offensive zone push with Klefbom while Nurse got almost entirely defensive zone starts with Larsson(who was a train wreck at the time).

The numbers from those small sample sizes aren't evidence that Bear carried that pairing. Same for some tiny sample sizes this year with some very obvious differences in competition.

You are probably the poster who's opinion I give the most credit here. I didn't remember those pairings and how they were deployd.

But this year it has been Nurse getting huge offensive push with other wordly McDavid. Imo the possession and scoring chance metrics are underwhelming giving the circumstances. He and Barrie are high event players both ways so that probably is a big reason for that.

Aren't you worried about Nurse's upcoming extension? To me that has Trouba situation written all over. We just don't have our Adam Fox, who to compare Nurse.

But lets just hope Bear keeps developing, because he has abilities that Oilers back-end lacks and to me those things are absolutely vital in building a good team.