Player Discussion Ethan Bear: It's a Bear Market

[McDNicks17]

You are probably the poster who's opinion I give the most credit here. I didn't remember those pairings and how they were deployd.

But this year it has been Nurse getting huge offensive push with other wordly McDavid. Imo the possession and scoring chance metrics are underwhelming giving the circumstances. He and Barrie are high event players both ways so that probably is a big reason for that.

Aren't you worried about Nurse's upcoming extension? To me that has Trouba situation written all over. We just don't have our Adam Fox, who to compare Nurse.

But lets just hope Bear keeps developing, because he has abilities that Oilers back-end lacks and to me those things are absolutely vital in building a good team.

I'm not worried. Nurse definitely benefits from playing with McDavid, but I think he's providing a ton too(a bazillion times more than Barrie who I think you could make that argument for). He was one of the top defensemen last year at getting pucks into the offensive zone and having his team create chances off of it. I'd say he might have even got better at that this year.

He is a high event guy, but often times anyone who plays with McDavid ends up that way. I'd assume there's a ton more rushes and resulting rushes against with him on the ice. You rarely see extended zone times with multiple shots with McDavid out there.

I did some quick napkin math over in the Nurse thread and a big reason for his poor numbers away from McDavid is that, because he plays against top competition so much, his minutes away from McDavid are often with guys like Haas and Khaira against the other teams' top six.

I'm glad Bear is bouncing back and hope he keeps developing because he's probably the only guy that has a chance to play on that right top pairing spot next year.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Great game from Ethan last night, outside of the goal he was making some good passes and had a few more chances on goal. If Barrie walks and we re-sign Larsson, I think that Lars, Bear and Bouch would still be a great RD for us.

 

[Drivesaitl]

??????

Bear is an NHL player full stop.

That was never the question. "We can talk about him being an average #6". Even with you disliking Bear, do you honestly think 15-20 teams in the league have better #6 d than Bear? Jesus dude

meh. I initially really liked Bear. But the NHL has shifted since his onset here. Its now allowed, almost all the time to ragdoll a D onto the ice and take the puck. Bear is a small D, that is always going to be his challenge, made worse by how the NHL does, or completely doesn't call games. The NHL will decide what Bear looks like. Ethan would do better in a no interference NHL. But that isn't the one he's playing in today. In order for Bear, at his size, to be effective requires exceptional mobility, anticipation. Small players, particularly D, have to be so much more cerebral, proactive, to survive intense forecheck that includes just grabbing a D any hauling him down.

The NHL constantly changes, its not a fixed quantity. Who does well in this league is subject to what the league targets and allows.

Bear has played better lately. But he had a run of months where his decision making and positioning was hard to watch. The Oilers rushed Bear, he seems to be recovering now but he's not out of the woods.

 

[McCombo]

I'm not worried. Nurse definitely benefits from playing with McDavid, but I think he's providing a ton too(a bazillion times more than Barrie who I think you could make that argument for). He was one of the top defensemen last year at getting pucks into the offensive zone and having his team create chances off of it. I'd say he might have even got better at that this year.

He is a high event guy, but often times anyone who plays with McDavid ends up that way. I'd assume there's a ton more rushes and resulting rushes against with him on the ice. You rarely see extended zone times with multiple shots with McDavid out there.

I did some quick napkin math over in the Nurse thread and a big reason for his poor numbers away from McDavid is that, because he plays against top competition so much, his minutes away from McDavid are often with guys like Haas and Khaira against the other teams' top six.

I'm glad Bear is bouncing back and hope he keeps developing because he's probably the only guy that has a chance to play on that right top pairing spot next year.

Not a fan of Barrie, but prefer him over guys like Larsson and especially Russell. Not worth of an longer extension, but same goes with Larsson.

I still don't see that 8mil player in Nurse. Iffy decision making, average outlet pass at best, not a good at suppressing chances against. Really weird that such a good skater has massive difficulties with tight gap control (letting lots of zone entries with possession). Good at joining rushes and can score some points, but I don't see the ability to dictate the game, tilt the ice (whatever you want to call it). Paying 8mil for beneficiary doesn't good to me.

From current group Bear is definitely only one. Hamilton would be a dream and I would pay him big money. He is a 8 million man.

 

[CycloneSweep]

meh. I initially really liked Bear. But the NHL has shifted since his onset here. Its now allowed, almost all the time to ragdoll a D onto the ice and take the puck. Bear is a small D, that is always going to be his challenge, made worse by how the NHL does, or completely doesn't call games. The NHL will decide what Bear looks like. Ethan would do better in a no interference NHL. But that isn't the one he's playing in today. In order for Bear, at his size, to be effective requires exceptional mobility, anticipation. Small players, particularly D, have to be so much more cerebral, proactive, to survive intense forecheck that includes just grabbing a D any hauling him down.

The NHL constantly changes, its not a fixed quantity. Who does well in this league is subject to what the league targets and allows.

Bear has played better lately. But he had a run of months where his decision making and positioning was hard to watch. The Oilers rushed Bear, he seems to be recovering now but he's not out of the woods.

He was definitely rushed back after the concussion. Now that his head seems to be better, he is a better player. Now I'm not saying he is a top pairing guy or our best like a few here. But for someone to say he isn't even an NHL player is ridiculous

 

[Drivesaitl]

Great game from Ethan last night, outside of the goal he was making some good passes and had a few more chances on goal. If Barrie walks and we re-sign Larsson, I think that Lars, Bear and Bouch would still be a great RD for us.

Barries biggest impact for us is the all world puck movement he possesses when we have control in opponent zone. Its showtime then, and a beauty thing to see. McDrai, Pulju, Barrie, Nurse passing the puck around whether its a PP or not, and teams being defenceless once we establish puck control in opponent zone. For that reason alone Barrie is an impact player here and incredibly useful in the bulk of games where getting that one goal here or there is the difference.

Theres segments in his puck control puck movement game that wouldn't be replaced. He's truly elite at it.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Barries biggest impact for us is the all world puck movement he possesses when we have control in opponent zone. Its showtime then, and a beauty thing to see. McDrai, Pulju, Barrie, Nurse passing the puck around whether its a PP or not, and teams being defenceless once we establish puck control in opponent zone. For that reason alone Barrie is an impact player here and incredibly useful in the bulk of games where getting that one goal here or there is the difference.

Theres segments in his puck control puck movement game that wouldn't be replaced. He's truly elite at it.

At some point Bouchard has to get some games in. His shot and passing are elite level as well. Do we just move him to LD full time?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Not a fan of Barrie, but prefer him over guys like Larsson and especially Russell. Not worth of an longer extension, but same goes with Larsson.

I still don't see that 8mil player in Nurse. Iffy decision making, average outlet pass at best, not a good at suppressing chances against. Really weird that such a good skater has massive difficulties with tight gap control (letting lots of zone entries with possession). Good at joining rushes and can score some points, but I don't see the ability to dictate the game, tilt the ice (whatever you want to call it). Paying 8mil for beneficiary doesn't good to me.

From current group Bear is definitely only one. Hamilton would be a dream and I would pay him big money. He is a 8 million man.

You can call him a beneficiary all you want but when he gets results when other guys don't?

If you look at the raw numbers Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are our best defenders, or should be. Doesn't that seem like a massive stretch? Like if you spend a few minutes watching the games you can tell for sure that's not true.

Bear plays far less minutes than Nurse, period Nurse is averaging 5 minutes more per game 5v5. One thing people tend to ignore is the vast majority of the time, you increase a players minutes, their advanced stats go down. Bear has good rates sure, but that's playing the minutes he does.

Go look at Matt Benning, by all metrics he was a good player, he was one of our best advanced stats wise. The moment you started trying to give him more minutes those numbers dropped.

Look at Nurses stats even between years. Nurse had as much of a 5v5 McDavid push last year as this year. Only difference is that he is playing mostly with Barrie instead of Bear. So a few things there. Either Barrie is a better defender than Bear, which to you would mean he is also better than Nurse, OR Nurse has taken the step forward and is a #1 defender.

Fact of the matter is Nurse is getting results. He is physical, he is durable, he is a crazy athlete that can actually handle the tough minutes and when he is on the ice the team produces more than it allows, at an even better rate than last year.

Bear can be a very good defender, however his consistency is lacking and even going back to last year, was a very high event player.

Maybe one day Bear can be better but he would never be able to handle even close to the minutes Nurse can with as good of results

 

[Nunymare]

He was definitely rushed back after the concussion. Now that his head seems to be better, he is a better player. Now I'm not saying he is a top pairing guy or our best like a few here. But for someone to say he isn't even an NHL player is ridiculous

Yeah, he definitely seem to be trending in a better direction. Some interesting comments in his post-game yesterday with regard to the mental side of the game to the extent that "things are fun again" (paraphrasing). I wonder if there has been some other things going on with him recently. He certainly seemed off for quite a while.

Hopefully he continues to show improvement for the rest of the season, and into next year. Patience always seems to be the key with young defencemen.

 

[CycloneSweep]

At some point Bouchard has to get some games in. His shot and passing are elite level as well. Do we just move him to LD full time?

I would give him some games down the stretch here. Maybe sit Barrie for a game or two, he seems to be struggling for a bit, tell him hes earned a night off. See how the team looks without him. Bouchard could be as good or better than Barrie but I can see why he isn't getting time though. Barrie is succeeding, Bear NEEDED to get going again and Larsson brings an element our other guys don't.

Isn't it kind of great that we have a good prospect not getting time because there is good competition ahead of him? When does that ever happen for us

 

[Drivesaitl]

At some point Bouchard has to get some games in. His shot and passing are elite level as well. Do we just move him to LD full time?

I can't really understand what is going on with that. Doesn't make any sense not to play him on what we know. But for all we know the org is wanting to be real careful and not rush him in. D take time, and the team is in a better position to assess readiness and Tippett is pretty expert at defensive aspects and monitoring and assessing players. It could even be that Bouchard isn't completely comfortable yet.

it could even be something like Bouchard getting drilled (it did occur) and the coaching staff feeling he needs more work to avoid getting stapled. With all these players we have getting concussions there might be some worry compromising a young D right out of the starting gate.

In anycase its the long game. My take is the org see's Bouchard as our future premier D. Other than Nurse its how I feel too.

Could also be a banged up knee or something, who knows. But Tippett is capable and I trust him anyway to have a bead on things. People here don't know as much about Tippett but he's probably the brightest accomplished coach we've had since Muckler.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I would give him some games down the stretch here. Maybe sit Barrie for a game or two, he seems to be struggling for a bit, tell him hes earned a night off. See how the team looks without him. Bouchard could be as good or better than Barrie but I can see why he isn't getting time though. Barrie is succeeding, Bear NEEDED to get going again and Larsson brings an element our other guys don't.

Isn't it kind of great that we have a good prospect not getting time because there is good competition ahead of him? When does that ever happen for us

I still say that he needs reps, if not now then for sure next season. He brings too much to the table to just be an insurance policy.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I can't really understand what is going on with that. Doesn't make any sense not to play him on what we know. But for all we know the org is wanting to be real careful and not rush him in. D take time, and the team is in a better position to assess readiness and Tippett is pretty expert at defensive aspects and monitoring and assessing players. It could even be that Bouchard isn't completely comfortable yet.

it could even be something like Bouchard getting drilled (it did occur) and the coaching staff feeling he needs more work to avoid getting stapled. With all these players we have getting concussions there might be some worry compromising a young D right out of the starting gate.

In anycase its the long game. My take is the org see's Bouchard as our future premier D. Other than Nurse its how I feel too.

Could also be a banged up knee or something, who knows. But Tippett is capable and I trust him anyway to have a bead on things. People here don't know as much about Tippett but he's probably the brightest accomplished coach we've had since Muckler.

This should be the case, I could see a Nurse-Bouchard pairing as an elite one. IMO Bouchard has everything that Barrie does minus the experience and + size and strength. He has the same strengths and weaknesses that Barrie has.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I still say that he needs reps, if not now then for sure next season. He brings too much to the table to just be an insurance policy.

Holland did say that Bouchard was a big piece for us next year.

I still think the plan is for Bouchard to essentially watch, shadow and learn as much as he can from Barrie. I would bet too he is spending a lot of time with our skating coach to work on his skating. If he didn't play overseas I'd be more worried, often young d like Bouchard play 30-40 games and then more the next year and are able to excel.

The Islanders treated Dobson like that last year. He played like 30 games last year total and spent a lot of time with the team and looks a decent amount better this year.

As long as they are doing the right thing with Bouchard while he is not playing, then I'm happy.

If he isn't playing next year then there is a big problem.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This should be the case, I could see a Nurse-Bouchard pairing as an elite one. IMO Bouchard has everything that Barrie does minus the experience and + size and strength. He has the same strengths and weaknesses that Barrie has.

I think Bouchard will have a lot more own end composure than Barrie. Its a weird thing with Barrie. Sometimes in ownzone, but mostly in NZ, he's not comfortable, can get rattled. This impacts our breakout schemes with him. But in opponent zone, gold. Barrie has world class composure, decision making in offensive zone, but somehow doesnt have the same confidence in other areas.

Bouchard has already impressed me with his own zone calm and his all zone comfort level. He's likely to be exceptional.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

I am fully convinced he is a top 4 D as soon as next year.

He'll be great on the top pairing with Nurse.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Quality of teammate is a much bigger factor especially when two of those teammates are top 5 players in the world.

QoC is a vital enough of a variable that it can never be outright ignored when trying to do these sorts of comparisons.

If Player A plays top level competition constantly and Player B only plays top level competition when playing with Player A, I don’t have to explain to you how important the difference of competition is when doing a “with/without” assessment...or at least I shouldn’t have to.

 

[Little Fury]

QoC is a vital enough of a variable that it can never be outright ignored when trying to do these sorts of comparisons.

It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be given more importance than it deserves.

If Player A plays top level competition constantly and Player B only plays top level competition when playing with Player A, I don’t have to explain to you how important the difference of competition is when doing a “with/without” assessment...or at least I shouldn’t have to.

But the issue is, on aggregate, who you play with is going to have a bigger impact because (a) there's a lot more control over who you play with and thus a much larger amount of data and (b) quality of competition varies widely even within the confines of what one considers "top line" competition.

Unless one guy is exclusively playing fourth lines and the other is exclusively playing top 6ers, the QoC isn't going to produce huge swings in the numbers.

 

[Ol' Jase]

It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be given more importance than it deserves.

But the issue is, on aggregate, who you play with is going to have a bigger impact because (a) there's a lot more control over who you play with and thus a much larger amount of data and (b) quality of competition varies widely even within the confines of what one considers "top line" competition.

Unless one guy is exclusively playing fourth lines and the other is exclusively playing top 6ers, the QoC isn't going to produce huge swings in the numbers.

If Player A consistently plays the best QoC on this ice, and Player B only plays the best QoC when playing with Player A, the “with/without” comparison doesn’t hold the water some think it does without some statistical acknowledgment of said difference in QoC.

When dealing with these sort of data sets, ignoring direct variables skew interpretations more and more as these variables are ignored.

Stating that it is a factual conclusion that “Bear carries Nurse” based on the data provided in the post in question is statistical folly as it doesn’t account for multiple variables, least of which is QoC.

 

[Little Fury]

If Player A consistently plays the best QoC on this ice, and Player B only plays the best QoC when playing with Player A, the “with/without” comparison doesn’t hold the water some think it does without some statistical acknowledgment of said difference in QoC.

When dealing with these sort of data sets, ignoring direct variables skew interpretations more and more as these variables are ignored.

Stating that it is a factual conclusion that “Bear carries Nurse” based on the data provided in the post in question is statistical folly as it doesn’t account for multiple variables, least of which is QoC.

Literally no one has said that.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Literally no one has said that.

Ok, I’ll retract that as hyperbolic.

Together they were very close to even. But as you can see Bear maintained similar numbers without Nurse. But Nurse crumbled pretty badly without Bear.

This is the assertion I was referencing.

Multiple variables are at play here that aren’t remotely acknowledged as to why this disparity may occur.

Don’t even get me started on the lack of accounting for the difference in the number of events each player’s stat measures are based on.

 

[5 14 6 1]

That celebration last night was fantastic.. Last 2-3 games looks like Bear of last year. He plays this out to the end of the season and im more than happy to let Barrie walk and spend the cash elsewhere.

Loved his postgame interview, some real maturity there.

 

[McTonyBrar]

That celebration last night was fantastic.. Last 2-3 games looks like Bear of last year. He plays this out to the end of the season and im more than happy to let Barrie walk and spend the cash elsewhere.

Loved his postgame interview, some real maturity there.

I think we all should've known that concussions do slow players down. He's coming back though which is great

 

[ImmuneEH]

This erased any doubt in my mind about whether we should or should not protect him. If he could just be THAT, what he was last night, we have a very strong top pairing. If he becomes more consistent with NHL experience, I'm content with him as a player. But he's still young with considerable upside.

 

[Stoneman89]

You are probably the poster who's opinion I give the most credit here. I didn't remember those pairings and how they were deployd.

But this year it has been Nurse getting huge offensive push with other wordly McDavid. Imo the possession and scoring chance metrics are underwhelming giving the circumstances. He and Barrie are high event players both ways so that probably is a big reason for that.

Aren't you worried about Nurse's upcoming extension? To me that has Trouba situation written all over. We just don't have our Adam Fox, who to compare Nurse.

But lets just hope Bear keeps developing, because he has abilities that Oilers back-end lacks and to me those things are absolutely vital in building a good team.

Couldn't disagree more. Nurse is definitely NOT a high event player this year. To the contrary, he's the one that looks the most comfortable moving the puck out of danger and then joining a rush, whether McDavid is on the ice or not. His skating is high end, and now that the game has slowed down for him, the sky is his limit.